The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declined in March

Why It Matters

The modest decline signals a potential softening in hiring momentum, raising questions for employers and the Federal Reserve about future job growth and inflation pressures.

Key Takeaways

• ETI slipped to 105.72, indicating weakening hiring outlook.
• Consumer perception of job difficulty rose to 21.5%.
• Unfilled job openings at small firms fell to 32%.
• Involuntary part‑time rate dropped to 16.5% from 19.4%.
• Initial unemployment claims fell to 207,800, below average.

Pulse Analysis

The Employment Trends Index (ETI) is a composite gauge that blends eight labor‑market indicators, from consumer confidence about job availability to industrial production metrics. By aggregating these signals, the ETI offers a forward‑looking view of payroll trends that often precedes the official BLS employment report. March’s dip to 105.72, though modest, marks the first decline since early 2024 and reflects a shift in several key components, suggesting that the labor market’s resilience may be waning.

Component analysis reveals a nuanced picture. The Consumer Confidence Survey showed 21.5% of respondents now find jobs hard to get, a five‑point jump from the previous year, indicating growing worker pessimism. Conversely, the share of small firms reporting unfilled positions fell to 32%, hinting that some hiring bottlenecks are easing. Involuntary part‑time work also receded to 16.5% from 19.4% in December, while initial unemployment claims slipped to 207,800, below the 2025 average. These mixed signals point to a labor market that remains tight in pockets but is showing early signs of slack.

For policymakers and business leaders, the ETI’s trajectory matters. A weakening index can temper expectations for robust wage growth, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. Sectors reliant on temporary‑help staffing saw modest gains, suggesting selective demand recovery. As the next release is slated for May 11, stakeholders will watch whether the downward trend persists, which could reshape hiring strategies, supply‑chain planning, and investment decisions across the economy.