Fed Will Need to Explain Why Current Inflation Jump Differs From 2022 Surge
The U.S. consumer price index jumped 0.9% in March, the fastest monthly rise since the 2022 inflation surge, pushing annual headline inflation above 11%. Unlike the 2022 spike, the current increase is driven largely by higher energy costs linked to the Iran‑related oil shock, while core inflation slowed to 0.2% month‑over‑month. Fed officials, led by San Francisco President Mary Daly, say the surge may be transitory and do not expect an immediate rate hike, keeping policy rates on hold. Markets now price in a steady rate stance through 2027 as the central bank balances credibility with inflation expectations.
Energy Fueled the CPI Spike but Essentials Are the Real Story
The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, with a 0.9% monthly gain—the fastest since mid‑2022. A 21% jump in gasoline prices supplied nearly three‑quarters of that increase, putting energy at the headline. Core CPI, which strips out...
State-Level Employment Situation: January 2026
The U.S. labor market rebounded in January 2026, with total nonfarm payrolls rising by 160,000 jobs after a sluggish 2025. Employment gains occurred in 45 states, led by California (+93,500) and Texas (+40,100), while the District of Columbia posted the...
Inflation Surged to a Nearly Two-Year High in March
U.S. consumer prices jumped to a near two‑year high in March, with the CPI climbing 3.3% year‑over‑year, the strongest gain since May 2024. The surge was driven primarily by energy costs, as gasoline prices topped $4 per gallon for the first...
The Need for Federal Reserve Flexibility
The article argues that the Federal Reserve must stay agile as geopolitical shocks and soaring energy and fertilizer prices threaten to reignite inflation. It warns that the Fed’s overly accommodative stance in 2021‑22 helped push inflation to a 9% peak,...
Consumer Sentiment Sours Over Inflation Concerns
Consumer sentiment slipped sharply in April, with the University of Michigan index falling to 47.6 from 53.3 in March. Households now expect prices to rise 4.8% over the next year, while the CPI showed a 0.9% monthly gain, pushing annual...
Trump Aides Caught with Pants Down as Iran War Gooses Inflation
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that March CPI rose 0.9% month‑over‑month, driven by a 10.9% jump in energy prices and a 21.2% surge in gasoline. Annual inflation hit 3.3%, the highest rate since April 2024, as the Trump‑initiated...
America Needs a Bigger Pie, Not Just Bigger Slices
The Congressional Budget Office projects U.S. labor‑force growth to shrink from 0.9% annually to just 0.1% by mid‑century, dragging potential GDP growth below 2% this decade. With fewer workers, productivity becomes the sole engine of economic expansion, a shift highlighted...
Trump Has Lied About National Debt
Ten years ago Donald Trump vowed to erase the U.S. national debt within eight years, a pledge that has not materialized. Instead, the gross federal debt has roughly doubled, climbing from about $19 trillion to more than $39 trillion. A significant portion...
Inflation Goes up by a Whopping Monthly Rate of Nearly 1%—And It’s Hitting You at the Grocery Store and Gas...
The U.S. consumer price index jumped almost 1% in March, driven primarily by a 10.9% rise in energy costs and a 21.2% surge in gasoline—the steepest monthly increase since 1967. Year‑over‑year inflation climbed to 3.3%, the highest level since April...
US Inflation Jumps to Two-Year High as Iran War Ripples Across Economy
U.S. consumer prices rose 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, the strongest pace since early 2022, as the Iran‑Israel conflict sent global energy prices soaring. The monthly CPI increased 0.4%, with gasoline and electricity leading the surge; energy costs were up about...
War, Oil and Inflation: What It Means for Rates
Inflation spikes tied to the Iran conflict prompted the Blue Chip Economic Indicators (BCEI) panel to revise upward its core PCE forecasts and soften expectations for near‑term Federal Reserve rate cuts. The panel now projects core PCE growth of 3.0%...
US Inflation Quickens to 3.3pc in March, Gasoline Soars
U.S. consumer prices jumped 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, the fastest pace since mid‑2024, driven largely by a surge in energy costs. Gasoline prices recorded a 21.2% monthly gain, the largest in the BLS record dating back to 1967, while fuel...
Soaring Pump Prices Drive US Inflation to Highest Level in Almost Two Years
U.S. consumer prices rose 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, the fastest pace in almost two years, driven largely by a 21.2% jump in gasoline costs. The surge stems from the U.S.-Israel conflict in Iran, which disrupted oil flow through the Strait...
US CPI Comes in Lower than Expected, but April Rate Cut Still Unlikely
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that March’s headline CPI rose 0.9% month‑over‑month and 3.3% year‑over‑year, staying above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Energy prices surged, with the energy index up 11% and gasoline climbing 21.2% amid the Iran‑related...
Grocery Price Growth Cools as Overall Inflation Surges
U.S. grocery price growth decelerated in March, with food‑at‑home inflation easing to a 1.9% year‑over‑year increase, down from 2.4% in February. The broader consumer price index, however, jumped to 3.3% as gasoline surged more than 21%, driving overall inflation higher....
Inside the Consumer Price Index: March 2026
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ March 2026 CPI report breaks down consumer spending into eight weighted categories, with food, shelter and clothing together representing over 60% of the index. Medical care, housing and food have each more than doubled in...
CPI Inflation Rate Up Nearly +1%, As Expected
The U.S. Consumer Price Index for March 2026 rose 0.9% month‑over‑month, pushing the year‑over‑year inflation rate to 3.3%, the highest level in nearly two years and exactly on forecast. Core CPI eased slightly to 2.6% YoY, coming in 10 basis...
Inflation Up 3.3% in March Amid Highest Inflationary Period Since 2022
U.S. consumer prices jumped 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, the steepest rise since June 2022, as the six‑week war with Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz and pushed crude toward $100 a barrel. Gasoline surged 21.2% and all fuel categories rose...
Mortgage Calculator: Here’s How Much You Need To Buy a $400,000 Home at a 6.37% Rate
Mortgage rates slipped to a 6.37% average for 30‑year fixed loans in the week ending April 9, a 9‑basis‑point decline from the prior week’s 6.46% peak. The dip translates into a $2,012 monthly principal‑and‑interest payment for a buyer putting 20% down...
Latest CPI Data Show Inflation Jumping. This Is What It Means for Advisors
The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, driven by a 10.9% jump in the energy index and a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased only 0.2% month‑over‑month, missing expectations. Analysts...
Blue-Collar Careers Were Supposed to Be AI-Proof. So Why Is Hiring Down 40 Percent?
Job openings for blue‑collar trades such as plumbers, electricians and factory workers have dropped 40% since 2022, bringing hiring levels down to the 2009 recession peak. The decline is driven by higher tariffs, rising interest rates that have stalled the...
Fed, Mortgage Rates, Likely to Hold Steady on Latest Inflation Report
The March Consumer Price Index showed a 0.9% monthly rise in headline inflation, driven largely by a 21% jump in gasoline and a 31% surge in fuel oil. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased only 0.2% month‑over‑month, staying...
Gas Prices Spike Inflation to 3.3% – A Real Test for Consumers and Housing This Spring
The U.S. March consumer price index rose to a 3.3% year‑over‑year headline rate, driven largely by a 21.2% month‑over‑month jump in gasoline—the steepest increase since the series began in 1967. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, eased to 2.6%...
Consumer Price Index up 0.9%, Fueled by Rising Price of Gas
The U.S. Consumer Price Index jumped 0.9% in March, largely propelled by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices amid the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran. Over the past year, gas has risen 18.9%, while fuel oil climbed 44.2%, pushing the overall...
Dollar Slips as CPI Fails to Rattle Fed’s Transitory View, Islamabad Talks Awaited
The U.S. dollar eased after March CPI came in below expectations, with headline inflation spiking on energy but core inflation remaining subdued. The softer core reading reinforced the Federal Reserve’s view that the inflation shock is transitory, keeping near‑term rate‑cut...
Consumer Prices Spike as Expected Oil Shock Hits March CPI Report
U.S. CPI for March surged, rising 0.9% month‑over‑month to a 3.3% annual rate, driven largely by energy costs. The energy index jumped 10.9% year‑over‑year, with gasoline prices soaring 21.2%—the biggest monthly gain since 1967. Excluding food and energy, core inflation...
US Inflation Much More Likely to Be Transitory This Time Around
U.S. headline CPI jumped 0.9% in March, largely because gasoline prices surged 21.2% month‑on‑month. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose only 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, coming in below analysts’ forecasts. The report highlights weaker corporate pricing...
Middle East Tensions Push CPI to 3.3% in March
The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.9% in March, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3.3% as Middle East tensions drove energy costs sharply higher. The energy index jumped 10.9%, led by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices, which...
Consumer Spending, Engine of the U.S. Economy, Is Under Strain
Higher fuel prices are pushing grocery, travel and other everyday costs upward, while a jittery stock market is dampening discretionary spending. Consumer spending, which fuels about two‑thirds of U.S. economic output, has kept the economy out of recession despite five...
Women Are Getting Most of the New Jobs. What's Going on with Men?
The U.S. Labor Department reports that 348,000 of the 369,000 jobs created since the start of President Trump’s second term went to women, driven largely by a 390,000‑job surge in health care. Men captured only 21,000 of those new positions,...
Stocks Waver With Shaky Cease-Fire in Focus
Investors await the March CPI report, which economists expect to show a 0.9% monthly rise and a 3.3% year‑over‑year increase—the steepest annual gain since May 2024. Brent crude has climbed nearly 2% to above $97 a barrel, keeping inflation pressures high....
‘We Owe It to the Next Generation’ to Get National Debt Under Control, Says Think-Tank Boss, as U.S. Borrowing Hits...
The Congressional Budget Office reports a $1.17 trillion deficit for the first six months of FY2026, pushing total federal debt past $39 trillion. Interest obligations alone exceed $1 trillion this year, while $1.7 trillion of outlays are tied to mandatory programs such as Social...
FX Daily: First Inflation Test
The market awaits the March US CPI report, expected to show a 0.9‑percentage‑point monthly jump and a 3.4% year‑on‑year increase, with core inflation only modestly higher. A higher‑than‑expected headline could keep the dollar firm, but the Fed is likely to...
A Big Inflation Report Is Due Friday. How to Trade the Upcoming CPI Report
The March Consumer Price Index, due Friday, is the final data point in a week marked by a cease‑fire in the Iran conflict, a PCE report that confirmed sticky inflation, and a weaker‑than‑expected GDP reading. Strategists such as B. Riley Wealth’s...
Consumer Spending Inches up, Reflecting Gloomy Inflation Sentiments
Consumer spending nudged up 0.1% in February after a flat January, even as confidence slipped and inflation pressures intensified. Core personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% month‑over‑month, marking a 3% annual gain. Gasoline prices surged 39% to $4.16 per gallon following...
Consumers Spend Through the Squeeze as Income Slips
Household spending continued to rise in February while personal income slipped 0.1%, creating a widening gap between earnings and outlays. Real disposable income fell 0.5% and the personal saving rate dropped to 4%, eroding financial buffers. Consumers are compensating with...
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Understanding Open Market Operations: The Fed's Tool for Monetary Policy
Open market operations (OMOs) are the Federal Reserve’s primary tool for adjusting the money supply by buying or selling Treasury securities. Permanent OMOs involve outright purchases or sales to shape long‑term rates, while temporary OMOs use repos and reverse repos...
Americans Hate the Economy so Much, They’re Buying $22 Smoothies
Americans are tightening budgets on meals, cars and everyday items, yet premium grocery chain Erewhon is thriving by selling $22 superfood smoothies and opening three new stores in 2025. The specialty food market has surged to $219 billion, a 150% increase...
The More Important Inflation Rate
The Iran‑Houthi conflict and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have driven a sharp jump in the one‑year inflation swap, which rose 62 basis points since Feb. 27, while the 12‑to‑24‑month forward rate (1y1y) has increased only 18 basis points....
Payscale Labor Market & Wage Trends Report: Technology Wage Growth Outpaces All Industries
The Q1 2026 Payscale Labor Market & Wage Trends Report shows technology wages climbing 6.8% year‑over‑year, the fastest growth among all sectors. Overall turnover cooled to 7.1%, creating a "low‑hire, low‑fire" environment while demand surged for health‑care support and skilled‑trade...
Inflation Held Sticky at 3% as U.S. Headed Into War with Iran, Key Fed Gauge Shows
The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index held at a 3% annual rate in February, while headline inflation ticked up to 2.8%, both in line with expectations. Consumer spending rose 0.5% month‑over‑month, but personal income slipped 0.1%, underscoring mixed...
Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2026 Is Projected to Rise 3.4% Year-Over-Year
FactSet’s median forecast shows the consumer price index rising 3.4% year‑over‑year in March 2026, the strongest gain since April 2024 and above the 12‑month average of 2.6%. The core CPI is expected to increase 2.7% YoY, while February’s CPI posted...
Key Fed Inflation Rate Ran Hot Before Oil Prices Jumped; S&P 500 Futures Slip
U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.4% month‑over‑month, in line with expectations, while core PCE climbed 0.4% against a 0.3% forecast, keeping the 12‑month headline rate at 2.8% and core inflation at 3%. Personal income slipped 0.1% and...
Commerce Department Report Shows 3% Core Inflation in February
The Commerce Department reported that core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rose 3% year‑over‑year in February, a slight dip from January’s pace. Headline inflation increased 2.8%, both figures matching Dow Jones consensus. The Federal Reserve’s March minutes signaled that a...
Iran Says U.S. Breached Ceasefire, Anthropic's Court Loss, Rate Cut Odds and More in Morning Squawk
The Dow surged over 1,300 points even as Iran accused the United States of breaching their cease‑fire agreement, sparking concerns over oil‑tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and nudging crude prices higher. In Washington, a federal appeals court denied...
The U.S. Government Is Spending $88 Billion a Month in Interest on National Debt—Equal to Spending on Defense and Education...
The Congressional Budget Office reports that the U.S. Treasury paid roughly $529 billion in net interest during the first six months of FY2025‑26, about $88 billion each month. This interest outlay matches the combined spending of the Defense and Education departments and...
The Big Picture
The United States is sending mixed economic signals: a stronger‑than‑expected jobs report suggests labor market resilience, while the Treasury Department has declared the nation fiscally insolvent. Global trade appears robust, yet investors are fleeing private‑credit funds amid fears of deteriorating...
Mortgage Rates Fall on Iran Ceasefire: Mortgage and Refinance Interest Rates Today
Mortgage rates slipped for the first time in over a month, with the average 30‑year fixed rate falling to 6.37% from 6.46% after the United States entered a cease‑fire with Iran. The decline mirrored a dip in the 10‑year Treasury...
US Money Markets: Slow Calm to Steady State
The Iran conflict has pushed short‑term inflation expectations higher, leaving the 2‑year break‑even rate near 3.1% and raising the risk of actual inflation hitting 4%. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the policy rate steady for the next few...