BLS Jobs: +115K, Double Expectations
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 115,000 jobs added in April, more than double the 55,000 consensus forecast, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. Healthcare (+37K), transportation/warehousing (+30K) and retail (+22K) drove the gains, whereas information, federal government and manufacturing posted losses. Wage growth eased to 0.2% month‑over‑month and 3.6% year‑over‑year, below expectations. Equity markets nudged higher, with the S&P 500 up about 32 points after the release.
Healthcare Adds 37,300 Jobs in April: 4 Things to Know
Healthcare employment rose by 37,300 jobs in April, aligning with the sector’s 12‑month average of 32,000 monthly gains, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Ambulatory services led the surge with 18,200 new positions, while hospitals added 4,300 and...
Fed Data Suggest Japan Sold U.S. Debt Amid Intervention
The Federal Reserve reported a $8.7 billion drop in its custody of marketable U.S. Treasuries, bringing the total to $2.73 trillion for the week ending May 6. The decline coincides with Japan’s Ministry of Finance spending roughly $55 billion to support the yen, suggesting...
Record South American Feed Grain Surpluses. The Corn & Ethanol Report 05/08/2026
A USDA Economic Research Service analysis shows record feed‑grain surpluses in South America, with Argentina’s corn harvest already 30% complete and projected at 63‑67 MMT—about 4 MMT above domestic demand. The excess supply is pressuring global corn markets, and U.S. corn is...
Mortgage Applications Retreats Further in April
Mortgage application activity declined in April, with the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Market Composite Index dropping 12.4% month‑over‑month, though it remained 14.2% higher than a year earlier. The average 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgage rose to 6.41%, up four basis points but still...
April Trucking Jobs Report Shows a Big Increase in Hiring
Truck transportation employment rose by 4,300 jobs in April, bringing the sector to 1,496,600 positions—the strongest monthly gain since September 2023. The increase follows a sharp layoff wave after Yellow Corp.’s shutdown, suggesting some displaced workers found new roles. Industry...
April's Blockbuster Jobs Report Dims Hopes for Imminent Fed Rate Cuts
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 115,000 jobs added in April, keeping the unemployment rate at 4.2% and labor‑force participation at a 2021 low of 61.8%. The gain outpaced consensus forecasts by roughly 40,000 jobs, driven primarily by health‑care,...
Federal Reserve Turns Focus to Inflation as Job Market Stabilizes
The Federal Reserve can keep its policy rate steady at 3.5%‑3.75% as the labor market shows resilience, adding 115,000 jobs in April and holding unemployment at 4.3%. However, the war in Iran has pushed oil‑related costs higher, sending gasoline to...
Mortgage Rates Likely to Hold Steady After April Jobs Report Shows Stronger Hiring, Softer Wages
The April jobs report showed employers added 115,000 positions, far exceeding the 62,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3% with a slight unrounded uptick. Wage growth slowed to a 0.2% monthly increase and 3.6% year‑over‑year, below expectations. The...
The U.S. Economy Keeps Adding Jobs but Full-Time Work Is Getting Harder to Find
The U.S. added 115,000 jobs in April, keeping the unemployment rate at 4.3%, but the quality of those jobs is shifting. Part‑time employment surged by 445,000, pushing the total to 4.9 million, indicating that full‑time openings are drying up. While healthcare,...
April 2026 Jobs Report: Moving, But Not Moving Along
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000 in April, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% from March and are up 3.6% year‑over‑year. Healthcare added 618,000 jobs over the...
Job Gains Were Steady in April, but Wage Growth Continued to Weaken
U.S. payrolls added 115,000 jobs in April, pushing the three‑month average to 48,000 per month. Gains were concentrated in health care, transportation and warehousing, while the federal workforce shed another 9,000 jobs, marking a cumulative loss of 345,000 since January...
US Labour Market Stable in April
April’s US labour market showed solid stability, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3% and non‑farm payrolls rising by 115,000 jobs. Job growth was concentrated in healthcare, while government and information sectors posted declines. The data weakens arguments for further...
Strong April Jobs Report Masks a Looming Workforce Crisis
The U.S. added 115,000 jobs in April, outpacing expectations and keeping the unemployment rate at 4.3%. Economists warn that a shrinking labor pool, driven by an aging population, reduced immigration and discouraged workers, masks a looming talent shortage. A looming...
Back-to-Back US Jobs Gains, but Hiring Caution Lingers
U.S. payrolls posted a second straight monthly increase, with April adding 115,000 jobs versus a 65,000 consensus forecast. The unemployment rate held at 4.3% even as household surveys showed a modest rise in joblessness. Average hourly earnings grew 0.2% month‑over‑month,...
Markets Embrace Strong US Employment Report, but Iran Remains the Bigger Risk
The U.S. April jobs report showed non‑farm payrolls rising by 115,000, nearly double expectations, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings grew only 0.2% month‑over‑month, keeping wage‑inflation pressure modest. Meanwhile, Canada’s labor market surprised on the downside,...
Economy Added 115,000 Jobs in April Despite Mixed Signals
The U.S. added 115,000 jobs in April, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. Gains were led by health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail, while federal employment fell. Underlying softness appeared as newly unemployed workers rose 358,000 and part‑time‑for‑necessity...
U.S. Payrolls Rose by 115,000 in April, with Unemployment at 4.3%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000 in April, outpacing the Dow Jones forecast of 55,000 but falling short of March's 185,000 surge. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, indicating a resilient labor market...
US Added 115,000 Jobs in April in Surprise Gain Amid Iran War Uncertainty
The U.S. Labor Department reported an unexpected gain of 115,000 jobs in April, far outpacing the 55,000 jobs economists had forecast. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, unchanged from the prior month, despite heightened uncertainty from the US‑Israel conflict with...
Worried Inflation Is Back? Why Active Fixed Income Wins
March’s CPI rose 0.9% month‑over‑month, lifting annual inflation to 3.3% as energy costs surged 10.9% amid Middle‑East tensions. The unexpected stickiness may force the Federal Reserve to reconsider its rate‑cut path, creating headwinds for traditional bond portfolios. Active fixed‑income ETFs,...
AI Is Distorting Practically Everything About the Economy
The Wall Street Journal warns that AI is warping U.S. economic data, inflating growth and profit figures while masking weak underlying activity. Capital spending by the five largest AI hyperscalers is projected at $800 billion this year and $1.1 trillion next, roughly...
U.S. Debt Hits a Concerning Milestone, and Experts Say Trump’s Policies Could Worsen It
The U.S. Treasury reported that federal debt reached $31.26 trillion in March, slightly surpassing the nation’s nominal GDP of $31.21 trillion. This marks the first time the debt‑to‑GDP ratio has exceeded 100 percent since World War II, echoing the brief pandemic surge. Economists warn...
Private Residential Construction Spending Increases in March
Private residential construction spending rose 1.7% in March 2026, ending two consecutive months of decline and putting the year‑over‑year figure 3.6% higher. Gains were broad‑based, with single‑family construction up 2.7% month‑over‑month, multifamily edging up 0.3%, and home‑improvement spending increasing 0.9%....
Forget Rate Cuts — a Veteran Broker Says New Fed Chair Warsh Will Print Money Instead
Veteran mortgage broker Amir Nurani warns that new Fed chair Kevin Warsh is unlikely to cut rates, favoring higher rates and quantitative easing instead. Warsh’s track record shows opposition to the zero‑rate era during COVID and a preference for disciplined, inflation‑focused...
Fed Needs Policy Clarity to Preserve Independence, G-30 Report Says
The Group of 30, led by former New York Fed chief William Dudley, issued a report warning that the Federal Reserve must sharpen its policy execution and communication to safeguard its independence amid political attacks. The think‑tank outlined eight recommendations, including a...
NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations:1Y Inflation Higher @ 3.6% vs 3.4%. 5Y Steady at 3%
The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations shows one‑year‑ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.6% in April from 3.4% in March, while three‑year expectations held at 3.1% and five‑year at 3.0%. Households now anticipate lower gasoline price growth (5.1% vs...
Disney Parks Send Strong Message on U.S. Consumers
Disney reported a record $9.5 billion in fiscal Q2 revenue for its Experiences segment, a 7% year‑over‑year increase, despite a 1% dip in domestic park attendance. Per‑capita guest spending rose faster than foot traffic, reflecting strong demand for premium experiences. The...
Q1 2026 Productivity and Costs Release: Productive, for Now
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity rose 2.9% year‑over‑year in Q1 2026, outpacing the 0.7% increase in hours worked and the 1.5% rise in output. Real hourly compensation grew 1.4% YoY but slipped 0.5% from the prior quarter, pushing the labor share...
Fed's Hammack: I See a Lot of Uncertainty in Economic Outlook
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned of heightened uncertainty in the economic outlook and urged the Federal Reserve to maintain a neutral stance. She signaled that interest rates are likely to stay on hold for an extended period, reinforcing the...
Proposed Social Security Change Would Impact 1 Million Recipients
A nonpartisan think tank proposes capping Social Security benefits at $50,000 for single recipients and $100,000 for married couples. The cap would affect roughly one million retirees and could reduce their payments by up to 30%, saving as much as...
US Construction Spending for March 0.6% versus 0.2% Estimate
U.S. construction spending rose 0.6% in March 2026, surpassing the 0.2% forecast. Total construction reached $2.1855 trillion, up 1.6% year‑over‑year. Private residential construction led the gains with a 1.7% month‑over‑month increase, while non‑residential private and public segments slipped modestly. Year‑to‑date spending climbed...
Inflation Outlook: Was I Too Pessimistic?
Brian Romanchuk notes that the 5‑year breakeven inflation rate has edged higher but remains well below the spikes seen after the pandemic and the Ukraine war. He argues the recent oil price shock and Gulf tensions represent a one‑off event...
Why the R&D Tax Credit Could Bring Back Made in the USA
The Section 41 research and development tax credit, recently streamlined by new legislation, is emerging as a catalyst for reshoring U.S. manufacturing. By delivering six‑figure cash refunds, the credit helps firms offset higher domestic labor costs, upgrade equipment, and buffer against...
Challenger Report: April Job Cuts Rise 38% From March; YTD Cuts Down 50%
U.S. employers announced 83,387 job cuts in April, a 38% jump from March and the third‑highest monthly total since 2009. Year‑to‑date layoffs have fallen 50% to 300,749, reflecting a mixed picture of volatility. Technology firms led the downsizing wave with...
Capital Reform Push Could Restore Wall Street’s Edge in Global Markets
The Federal Reserve has proposed rolling back capital requirements for the largest U.S. banks, cutting aggregate buffers by roughly 5%. The change aims to free balance‑sheet capacity, allowing banks to expand market‑making and reclaim business lost to non‑bank firms. Analysts...
Warsh Would Be Wise to Listen to Fed Dissenters
Petrol prices have surged from under $3 to over $4.50 per gallon and diesel to $5.60, while fertilizer costs have risen 25‑50%, after the Iran‑linked Strait of Hormuz disruption halted 20% of global oil and gas shipments. The Federal Reserve,...
Private Sector Pay Awards Steady at 3% in Quarter to March
In the three months to March 2026, private‑sector pay awards held steady with a median increase of 3.5%, while the upper‑quartile rose to 3.8% as higher‑end raises of 4% or more grew to over 20% of the sample. The national...
The Old Ceiling, the New Floor
Core CPI has moved from a decade‑long sub‑2.5% ceiling (2010‑2019) to a new floor, staying above that threshold in 57 of the last 63 months, including a 56‑month streak since April 2021. The shift reflects higher wage growth, rising unit...
What if We Used Taxes or Superannuation to Control Inflation, Not Interest Rates?
Australian policymakers are debating whether fiscal tools—tax adjustments or superannuation levies—could complement the Reserve Bank’s interest‑rate strategy to curb inflation. Historical evidence shows a 10% income‑tax surcharge in 1951 curbed 23.9% inflation but sparked a recession, highlighting trade‑offs. Economists propose...
Small-Business Hiring Grows in April
Small businesses with fewer than 50 employees added jobs in April, pushing Paychex's Small Business Jobs Index to 99.16, the strongest two‑month gain since February 2023. All four U.S. regions posted higher employment growth, led by the Northeast and West, while...
Private Sector Adds 109K Jobs
ADP reported the private sector added 109,000 jobs in April, with the service‑providing sector gaining 94,000 and the goods‑producing sector adding 15,000. Education and health services led the surge, contributing 61,000 jobs, while professional and business services shed 8,000. Pay...
Surging Gas Prices Are Hitting Lower Income Households Harder, New York Fed Study Shows
A New York Federal Reserve study finds that the March 2026 gas‑price surge hit lower‑income households hardest, forcing them to cut consumption while higher‑income families barely reduced use. Households earning under $40,000 increased nominal gasoline spending by only 12%, cutting...
Time to Fight the Fed? Stocks Rally Faces Dashed Rate-Cut Hopes
Wall Street’s recent rally is being tested as a hot labor market and soaring oil prices have erased most expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. Bond traders now see a higher probability of a rate hike, especially...
State-Level Employment Situation: March 2026
In March 2026 U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000, reversing February's 133,000‑job loss. Gains were concentrated in Texas (+46,800), California (+28,700) and Florida (+28,100), while 15 states shed jobs, led by Oregon’s 4,800‑job decline. The construction sector added a net...
ADP +109K: Job Growth on Lower-Paying Work
The ADP report showed a surprise surge of 109,000 private‑sector jobs in April, the strongest gain since January 2025 and well above the 84,000 analysts expected. Growth was driven by small firms (65,000 jobs) and large employers (42,000), while medium‑size firms...
April 2026 Jobs Preview: What to Expect
The Center for Economic and Policy Research’s April 2026 Jobs Preview warns that GDP growth is decelerating while the labor market continues to add jobs at a steady pace. Wage growth is losing momentum, and sector‑specific trends are mixed, creating a...
Slight Rise for Open Construction Jobs in March
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that open construction jobs rose modestly in March, increasing to 224,000 from 201,000 in February. Despite the uptick, the figure remains well below the 278,000 openings recorded a year earlier and reflects a broader...
Wall Street Just Broke a 20-Year Seasonal Habit—And It’s a Massive Signal for the Economy
Analysts lifted the S&P 500 bottom‑up earnings estimate for the second quarter by 2.1% in April, to $80.47 per share—the biggest upward revision in five years. Historically, the first month of a quarter sees analysts trim forecasts by about 0.9% over...
The Real Trouble with the US Debt Topping 100 Percent of GDP
U.S. publicly held debt topped $31.3 trillion in March, reaching 100.2% of GDP—the first time since 1946. The surge pushes net interest payments above defense spending and is projected to grow to 4.6% of GDP by 2036. While other advanced economies...
The Myth of the Resilient Consumer
The article argues that the notion of a "resilient consumer" is a myth, emphasizing that credit, not innate spending stamina, fuels U.S. consumption. Total household debt now tops $18 trillion, with credit‑card balances soaring since the pandemic. Recent data from the...