Q1 2026 Productivity and Costs Release: Productive, for Now
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity rose 2.9% year‑over‑year in Q1 2026, outpacing the 0.7% increase in hours worked and the 1.5% rise in output. Real hourly compensation grew 1.4% YoY but slipped 0.5% from the prior quarter, pushing the labor share of output down to 54.1%, the lowest level recorded since BLS began tracking in 1947. The productivity boost coincides with an 11.1% annual surge in AI‑related software investment, though total factor productivity slowed to 0.8% in 2025, indicating capital‑driven gains rather than pure efficiency.
Fed's Hammack: I See a Lot of Uncertainty in Economic Outlook
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned of heightened uncertainty in the economic outlook and urged the Federal Reserve to maintain a neutral stance. She signaled that interest rates are likely to stay on hold for an extended period, reinforcing the...
Proposed Social Security Change Would Impact 1 Million Recipients
A nonpartisan think tank proposes capping Social Security benefits at $50,000 for single recipients and $100,000 for married couples. The cap would affect roughly one million retirees and could reduce their payments by up to 30%, saving as much as...
US Construction Spending for March 0.6% versus 0.2% Estimate
U.S. construction spending rose 0.6% in March 2026, surpassing the 0.2% forecast. Total construction reached $2.1855 trillion, up 1.6% year‑over‑year. Private residential construction led the gains with a 1.7% month‑over‑month increase, while non‑residential private and public segments slipped modestly. Year‑to‑date spending climbed...
Inflation Outlook: Was I Too Pessimistic?
Brian Romanchuk notes that the 5‑year breakeven inflation rate has edged higher but remains well below the spikes seen after the pandemic and the Ukraine war. He argues the recent oil price shock and Gulf tensions represent a one‑off event...
Why the R&D Tax Credit Could Bring Back Made in the USA
The Section 41 research and development tax credit, recently streamlined by new legislation, is emerging as a catalyst for reshoring U.S. manufacturing. By delivering six‑figure cash refunds, the credit helps firms offset higher domestic labor costs, upgrade equipment, and buffer against...
Challenger Report: April Job Cuts Rise 38% From March; YTD Cuts Down 50%
U.S. employers announced 83,387 job cuts in April, a 38% jump from March and the third‑highest monthly total since 2009. Year‑to‑date layoffs have fallen 50% to 300,749, reflecting a mixed picture of volatility. Technology firms led the downsizing wave with...
Capital Reform Push Could Restore Wall Street’s Edge in Global Markets
The Federal Reserve has proposed rolling back capital requirements for the largest U.S. banks, cutting aggregate buffers by roughly 5%. The change aims to free balance‑sheet capacity, allowing banks to expand market‑making and reclaim business lost to non‑bank firms. Analysts...
Warsh Would Be Wise to Listen to Fed Dissenters
Petrol prices have surged from under $3 to over $4.50 per gallon and diesel to $5.60, while fertilizer costs have risen 25‑50%, after the Iran‑linked Strait of Hormuz disruption halted 20% of global oil and gas shipments. The Federal Reserve,...
Private Sector Pay Awards Steady at 3% in Quarter to March
In the three months to March 2026, private‑sector pay awards held steady with a median increase of 3.5%, while the upper‑quartile rose to 3.8% as higher‑end raises of 4% or more grew to over 20% of the sample. The national...
The Old Ceiling, the New Floor
Core CPI has moved from a decade‑long sub‑2.5% ceiling (2010‑2019) to a new floor, staying above that threshold in 57 of the last 63 months, including a 56‑month streak since April 2021. The shift reflects higher wage growth, rising unit...
What if We Used Taxes or Superannuation to Control Inflation, Not Interest Rates?
Australian policymakers are debating whether fiscal tools—tax adjustments or superannuation levies—could complement the Reserve Bank’s interest‑rate strategy to curb inflation. Historical evidence shows a 10% income‑tax surcharge in 1951 curbed 23.9% inflation but sparked a recession, highlighting trade‑offs. Economists propose...
Small-Business Hiring Grows in April
Small businesses with fewer than 50 employees added jobs in April, pushing Paychex's Small Business Jobs Index to 99.16, the strongest two‑month gain since February 2023. All four U.S. regions posted higher employment growth, led by the Northeast and West, while...
Private Sector Adds 109K Jobs
ADP reported the private sector added 109,000 jobs in April, with the service‑providing sector gaining 94,000 and the goods‑producing sector adding 15,000. Education and health services led the surge, contributing 61,000 jobs, while professional and business services shed 8,000. Pay...
Surging Gas Prices Are Hitting Lower Income Households Harder, New York Fed Study Shows
A New York Federal Reserve study finds that the March 2026 gas‑price surge hit lower‑income households hardest, forcing them to cut consumption while higher‑income families barely reduced use. Households earning under $40,000 increased nominal gasoline spending by only 12%, cutting...
Time to Fight the Fed? Stocks Rally Faces Dashed Rate-Cut Hopes
Wall Street’s recent rally is being tested as a hot labor market and soaring oil prices have erased most expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. Bond traders now see a higher probability of a rate hike, especially...
State-Level Employment Situation: March 2026
In March 2026 U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000, reversing February's 133,000‑job loss. Gains were concentrated in Texas (+46,800), California (+28,700) and Florida (+28,100), while 15 states shed jobs, led by Oregon’s 4,800‑job decline. The construction sector added a net...
ADP +109K: Job Growth on Lower-Paying Work
The ADP report showed a surprise surge of 109,000 private‑sector jobs in April, the strongest gain since January 2025 and well above the 84,000 analysts expected. Growth was driven by small firms (65,000 jobs) and large employers (42,000), while medium‑size firms...
April 2026 Jobs Preview: What to Expect
The Center for Economic and Policy Research’s April 2026 Jobs Preview warns that GDP growth is decelerating while the labor market continues to add jobs at a steady pace. Wage growth is losing momentum, and sector‑specific trends are mixed, creating a...
Slight Rise for Open Construction Jobs in March
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that open construction jobs rose modestly in March, increasing to 224,000 from 201,000 in February. Despite the uptick, the figure remains well below the 278,000 openings recorded a year earlier and reflects a broader...
Wall Street Just Broke a 20-Year Seasonal Habit—And It’s a Massive Signal for the Economy
Analysts lifted the S&P 500 bottom‑up earnings estimate for the second quarter by 2.1% in April, to $80.47 per share—the biggest upward revision in five years. Historically, the first month of a quarter sees analysts trim forecasts by about 0.9% over...
The Real Trouble with the US Debt Topping 100 Percent of GDP
U.S. publicly held debt topped $31.3 trillion in March, reaching 100.2% of GDP—the first time since 1946. The surge pushes net interest payments above defense spending and is projected to grow to 4.6% of GDP by 2036. While other advanced economies...
The Myth of the Resilient Consumer
The article argues that the notion of a "resilient consumer" is a myth, emphasizing that credit, not innate spending stamina, fuels U.S. consumption. Total household debt now tops $18 trillion, with credit‑card balances soaring since the pandemic. Recent data from the...
The End of the Yellen-Era Debt Playbook?
U.S. Treasury is moving away from Janet Yellen's short‑term bill‑heavy issuance strategy as new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent prepares to confront a $10 trillion debt wall in 2026. Bessent’s “3‑3‑3” plan targets 3 % GDP growth, a 3 %‑of‑GDP deficit by 2028, and...
Traders Ramp Up Bets Warsh’s Fed Could Hike Rates Before Cutting
Bond traders are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will raise rates before any cuts, with swaps now pricing a greater than 50% chance of a hike by next April. The shift reflects growing hedging activity in SOFR futures and...
These Are the Fastest-Growing Jobs for New College Graduates — Even in Th...
New college graduates face a tough post‑inflation job market, with the unemployment rate for 22‑27‑year‑olds rising to 5.6% in Q1 2026—well above the 4.2% overall rate. AI adoption and higher interest rates have slowed entry‑level hiring, cutting the seasonally adjusted hiring...
Fed's Barr Says Gas Prices Could 'Bleed' Into Inflation
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned that the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict could push gasoline and fertilizer prices higher, potentially feeding broader inflation. He noted that U.S. natural‑gas markets are relatively insulated because they are not fully integrated into global markets,...
Rebound in Hiring, Steady Job Openings Highlight Firming Labor Market
Hiring accelerated in March, with 655,000 more hires bringing total hires to 5.6 million and the hiring rate up to 3.5%. Job openings held steady at 6.9 million, roughly 3% below last year’s average. Meanwhile, layoffs rose by 153,000 and the quit...
One American Loses Their Job for Every 6 Immigrants Removed From the Workforce as Researchers See ‘No Evidence’ that ICE...
A new NBER study finds that heightened ICE activity under the Trump administration has removed roughly 1.2 million foreign‑born workers, triggering a cascade of job losses among native‑born males. In areas with a surge in ICE arrests, six undocumented men left...
New Home Sales Rise, Supported by Limited Existing Inventory
New single‑family home sales rose 7.4% month‑over‑month in March, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 682,000 units and a 3.3% year‑over‑year gain. Inventory slipped to 481,000 homes, putting the months’ supply at 8.5 months—down from 9.2 a year ago...
March 2026 JOLTS Report: Stable, Depending on What You Do
The March 2026 JOLTS report shows job openings steady at 6.9 million, while the hires rate rose to 3.5% and quits edged up to 2%. Layoffs ticked higher to 1.2%, driven largely by a surge in the tech sector where the layoff...
US Trade Gap Widens in March as AI Spending Boosts Imports
U.S. trade data for March showed the deficit expanding 4.4% to $60.3 billion, slightly above expectations. Imports increased 2.3% to $381.2 billion, with AI hardware, computers and autos driving the rise, while exports grew 2.0% to $320.9 billion, led by crude oil and...
April Services PMI Signals Steady Expansion Despite Cost Pressures and Weaker Demand
The Institute for Supply Management reported an April Services PMI of 53.6, marking the 22nd straight month of expansion but a 0.4‑point dip from March. The reading stays 1.1 points above the 12‑month average, indicating continued growth despite a slower...
New-Home Sales Pace Picks Up, Price Plummets in March
New‑home sales rebounded in March 2026, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 682,000 units, a 3.3% year‑over‑year increase. The median price of a newly built home fell 6.2% to $387,400, the lowest level recorded since 2021 and more than...
The Federal Safety Net Isn’t Ready for Artificial Intelligence
The article warns that the U.S. unemployment insurance system, limited to 26 weeks of benefits, is ill‑suited for potential AI‑driven job displacement. Existing job‑retraining programs are outdated or have lapsed, and recent Republican legislation has tightened eligibility for food and...
Rising Bond Yields And Rate-Hike Pricing: Macro Man Podcast
Bloomberg’s Macro Man podcast, hosted by Cameron Crise, examines the recent surge in long‑term Treasury yields and the upward shift in short‑term interest‑rate (STIR) market pricing. The episode argues that the yield rally strengthens the case for additional Federal Reserve...
Watch: How Two-Way Risks Are Dividing the Fed’s Policy Outlook
The Federal Reserve remains split over its future rate path as it grapples with two‑way risks: stubborn inflation and the potential for an energy price shock. While wage growth and overall economic activity are slowing, price pressures stay above target,...
John C Williams: There Is No Try
John C. Williams told the Cynosure Group that the Federal Reserve is holding the federal‑funds target range at 3.5%‑3.75% as it navigates a mix of resilient growth and heightened uncertainty. Real GDP is expected to expand about 2%‑2.25% this year...
Jerome Powell’s Finest Hour
Jerome Powell, the outgoing Federal Reserve chair, is being cast as a modern‑day Churchill for defending the central bank’s independence against President Donald Trump’s political pressure. The piece argues that despite policy missteps, Powell’s willingness to push back on attempts...
Spending to Hit Record $38 Billion for Mother's Day
U.S. consumer spending for Mother’s Day is projected to reach a record $38 billion in 2026, according to the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. This eclipses last year’s $34.1 billion and the previous record of $35.7 billion set in 2023. The average...
US National Debt Reaches 100% of GDP
The U.S. public debt has surpassed 100 percent of nominal GDP, a ratio last seen after World War II. Treasury data attribute the rise to pandemic relief, higher defense outlays, and chronic deficits. Analysts warn that a debt‑to‑GDP level above one could...
US Home Price Insights — May 2026
U.S. home prices showed only a 0.4% year‑over‑year increase in March 2026, marking the slowest growth since the post‑pandemic correction began. After seven straight months of declines, the market posted a second consecutive monthly gain, up 0.3% from February. Only...
Redfin Economists’ Weekly Take: Volatile Rates Ahead as Fed Turns Hawkish and Energy Shock Builds
Redfin economists warn that interest rates will stay volatile as the Federal Reserve adopts a more cautious, hawkish tone amid rising inflation and an escalating Iran‑related energy shock. Core PCE inflation remains at 3.2% YoY, the highest since late‑2023, while...
Bond Yields Are Rising. Why That Could End the Stock Market’s Rally.
U.S. Treasury yields have surged, pushing the 10‑year rate above 4.5% and prompting a pullback in equities. The S&P 500 slipped 0.4% while growth names like Amazon rose modestly and the bond‑focused TLT ETF fell 0.8%. Analysts warn that continued...
Rates Spark: 10yr SOFR Hits the 4% Handle
On Monday the 10‑year SOFR rate climbed to 4%, up 50 basis points from the pre‑Iran‑war level of 3.5%. The rise places the rate in a zone the firm identifies as optimal for receiving fixed in swap‑to‑floating strategies, offering potentially...
José Torres Analyzes the Federal Reserve Meeting
In the May 4 video, Bond Buyer senior analyst José Torres breaks down the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting. The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at the 5.25%‑5.50% range and hinted that any easing will be gradual as inflation remains...
Powell Out
The Financial Times has assembled a dedicated Monetary Policy Radar team to track global central‑bank actions and forecast rate moves. Chris Giles, the veteran economics commentator, leads the editorial side after 19 years at the FT. Andrew Whiffin, a CFA‑journalist...
Kalshi Traders See April Jobs Report Coming in Better than Economists' Estimates
Kalshi’s prediction‑market participants are betting the April non‑farm payroll report will beat the Dow Jones consensus of 53,000 jobs, assigning a 50% probability of at least 66,000 jobs added. An 81% chance the figure will be positive would mark the...
Bad Government Statistics Can Cost the Economy Billions
U.S. government surveys are losing respondents at an accelerating pace. The Current Population Survey’s monthly response rate has slipped from nearly 90% a decade ago to under 70% today, while the Consumer Expenditure Survey’s participation has fallen from about 70%...
America Is Lucky It’s No Longer a Manufacturing Powerhouse—It’s What’s Protecting the U.S. Economy From the Worst of the Oil...
The Iran‑Iran war’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed U.S. gasoline to over $4.45 per gallon and sparked a 0.7% jump in core inflation, the biggest in three years. Cornell economist Eswar Prasad argues that America’s transition from...