AGC's Data DIGest: April 20-24, 2026
Seasonally adjusted construction employment shifted in April 2026, with gains in 22 states and losses in 27, led by Florida adding 1,100 jobs and New Jersey shedding 5,900. Year‑over‑year, Texas posted the largest job increase (24,000) while California recorded the biggest loss (10,300). Construction starts rose 13% YTD, driven by a 47% jump in nonresidential projects and a 103% surge in commercial starts, whereas residential starts plunged 28%. The Architecture Billings Index edged to 49.8, just shy of the 50 threshold that signals expanding demand.
Bond Traders Await Powell Update, Slate of US Treasury Auctions
U.S. Treasury traders are zeroing in on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting to assess inflation pressures as Middle‑East tensions keep oil prices elevated. The consensus is that the Fed will hold rates steady on Wednesday, but market participants are increasingly...
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Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER): Definition and Relationship to CPI
Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) is the imputed rent a homeowner would pay to lease their own property, factoring in mortgage, taxes and other ownership costs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics captures OER through monthly homeowner surveys, and it feeds directly...
US Consumer Sentiment Drops to Record Low in April
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a record low of 49.8 in April, edging up slightly from an early‑month trough of 47.6 but still well below March’s 53.3 and Reuters’ 48.0 forecast. The decline was driven by...
Sen Tillis Clears Path for Trump’s Fed Pick After DOJ Drops Powell Probe
Senator Thom Tillis announced he will drop his hold on Kevin Warsh’s nomination to become Federal Reserve Chair, clearing the path for confirmation before current Chair Jerome Powell steps down on May 15. Tillis said the Justice Department’s decision to end...
Will Kevin Warsh Trumpify the Federal Reserve?
Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor and close Trump ally, is poised to join the Fed board as the new chair seeks a more aggressive stance on interest rates. Warsh has publicly echoed President Trump’s criticism of high rates...
Fed Set to Lead Uneasy G-7 With Rates Kept on Hold This Week
Policymakers across the G‑7, including the Federal Reserve, are expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week as they monitor the inflationary fallout from the Iran‑related energy shock. The Fed’s meeting may be Jerome Powell’s last, with a Justice Department...
Fed Set to Lead Uneasy G-7 With Rates Kept on Hold This Week
The Federal Reserve will join other G7 central banks in keeping interest rates unchanged this week, maintaining the federal funds rate at 5.25‑5.50%. Policymakers cite softened inflation but warn that renewed energy price pressures from the Iran‑Israel conflict could reignite...
US Programmer Job Growth Nearly Halved Since ChatGPT Launched, Fed Study Finds
A Federal Reserve study finds that US programmer employment growth has nearly halved since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022. The annual growth rate fell from just under 5 percent to about 2.5 percent, equating to roughly 500,000 fewer programmer jobs over three years. The...
Jerome Powell’s Final Fed Press Conference Marks an End to an Era
Jerome Powell is set to hold his final Federal Reserve press conference, a ceremony that could close a decade‑long era of regular Q&A sessions with journalists. Trump‑nominated successor Kevin Warsh has hinted he may scrap future press conferences, arguing the...
Jerome Powell’s Final Fed Press Conference Marks an End to an Era
Jerome Powell is expected to hold his final press conference as Federal Reserve chair on Wednesday, marking the end of a regular Q&A tradition that began in 2024. The press briefings have been a key channel for the Fed to...
Gas Prices Drive Consumer Sentiment Index to All-Time Low
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 49.8 in April, marking the lowest reading in its 73‑year history. The drop of 3.5 points was driven by a sharp rise in gasoline prices tied to the Iran conflict....
InvestingLive Americas FX News Wrap 24 Apr:Risk-On Mood Lifts Stocks to Records/USD Lower
U.S. equities surged on a risk‑on wave sparked by renewed diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran, pushing the Nasdaq up 1.63% and the S&P 500 up 0.80% to fresh all‑time highs. Mega‑cap tech stocks such as Nvidia, Alphabet...
Consumer Sentiment Sags to Record Low Following Gas Price Surge
U.S. consumer sentiment fell to a record low of 49.8 in April, driven by a 36% jump in gasoline prices after the Iran conflict. Inflation expectations for the next year rose to 4.7%, while long‑term expectations ticked up to 3.5%,...
Global Central Banks Decisions Highlight Next Week's Calendar: Market Volatility Ahead
Global central banks will dominate the week, starting with the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Monday and culminating in a packed Thursday of Bank of England, European Central Bank and key U.S. data releases. The Federal Reserve and Bank...
Modest Retail Jobs Performance in March 2026 Keeps Multi-Site FM Activity Steady
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that retail trade added a modest 9,700 jobs in March 2026, leaving the sector essentially flat. In the same month the broader economy posted 178,000 non‑farm payroll gains, driven largely by health‑care (+76,000)...
How a Swap Line for Persian Gulf Allies Would Break with the Past
The Federal Reserve is considering extending dollar swap lines to Persian Gulf allies such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain, a departure from its traditional use as a crisis‑management tool for G7 and select emerging markets. Treasury Secretary...
The Deeper Forces Shaping Global Trade
Global trade is being reshaped by forces beyond tariffs, as technology and economic development drive new production and consumption patterns. While Middle‑East shipping disruptions and uncertain U.S. tariff policy capture headlines, long‑term shifts in digital infrastructure and emerging‑market demand are...
The Fed Pivot: Assessing a Potential Generational Shift at the Federal Reserve
The article examines the potential appointment of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell’s successor and the policy shifts his leadership could bring. Warsh advocates a more forward‑looking interest‑rate framework that privileges productivity gains, a faster balance‑sheet normalization through...
DoJ Drops Powell Probe, Clearing Way for Warsh to Take Fed Hotseat
The Justice Department has closed its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, removing a major political obstacle to confirming President Trump’s Fed nominee, former governor Kevin Warsh. The DOJ redirected its focus to a cost‑overrun review of the...
Middle East Stasis Set to Keep Fed on Hold at Chair Powell’s Swan Song
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15, but he has signaled he may remain chair pro tempore amid political friction with the White House. The April FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates steady, with Fed funds futures...
Americans Cut Spending Due to Higher Gas Prices and See No Relief in Sight, CNBC Survey Finds
A CNBC All‑America Economic Survey of 1,000 adults shows roughly 80% have altered their spending because gas prices have jumped over 30% to more than $4 per gallon since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. More than half expect the...
ECB's Nagel Says Trump's Fed Attacks Caused Flight to Safety
ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel warned that President Donald Trump’s repeated attacks on the Federal Reserve are prompting a flight to safety. Bundesbank research shows the rhetoric has lowered Treasury yields, depressed equity prices, boosted gold and weakened the dollar....
Mortgage Rates Slide for Third Consecutive Week
U.S. mortgage rates slipped for the third week, with the 30‑year fixed rate averaging 6.23% and the 15‑year at 5.58% for the week ending April 23. The decline follows a modest rise in mortgage applications, driven by a surge in...
U.S. Inflation Picture Is the Worst in Almost 4 Years
U.S. inflation has surged to its most severe level since 2022, according to a MarketWatch report. S&P Global’s service‑sector index rose to 51.3 in April, up from a three‑year low of 49.8, indicating modest expansion despite broader price pressures. Companies...
Jobless Claims Move Up Slightly, Pre-Markets Move Down
U.S. pre‑market futures slipped Thursday, with the Dow down 0.55% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each off about 0.3%. Initial jobless claims edged higher to 214,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.821 million, still near post‑pandemic lows. Q1 earnings season saw...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Economic Growth Decreased in March
The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.20 in March, reversing a modest +0.03 reading in February. The three‑month moving average (CFNAI‑MA3) also slipped into negative territory at –0.03, underscoring below‑trend growth. Three of the four component categories—production...
From Net Oil Importer to Net Oil Exporter : Shifts in the Role of Petroleum in the US Economy
The United States transitioned from a long‑standing net oil importer to a net exporter around 2020, as refined petroleum exports outpaced imports. Data from the Federal Reserve’s FRED series show the net export share of GDP turning positive after decades...
Are Treasuries Losing Their Luster?
The article argues that warnings from the IMF and former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson about rising U.S. debt do not signal an imminent loss of Treasury market credibility. It notes that the 10‑year yield at roughly 4.25% sits within the...
Americans' Economic Confidence Drops in April
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index slipped to –38 in April, the lowest reading since November 2023. Nearly half of U.S. adults (47%) now label current conditions as poor, up from 40% in March, while 73% say the economy is getting worse. Confidence...
The Big Question the Fed-Chair Hearing Leaves Open
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and Trump ally, testified before the Senate Banking Committee, insisting he would act as an independent Fed chair. The hearing highlighted intense scrutiny over his willingness to resist President Trump’s push for lower rates...
Sherman Says: The Dirty Secret in the Bond Market
DoubleLine debuted its "Sherman Says" podcast with Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman and strategist Ryan Kimmel discussing today’s macro backdrop. They highlighted persistent inflation from energy price swings, tariffs and elevated services costs, which keep the Federal Reserve’s policy path uncertain....
April 2026 Talent Market Index: Labor Market Trends, Rising Hiring Costs, and Workforce Shifts
The April 2026 Talent Market Index reveals that March’s job gains outpaced expectations, yet underlying labor participation is slipping and hiring demand is becoming increasingly concentrated in a handful of sectors. Employers are feeling the pressure of rising talent‑acquisition costs, prompting...
State-Level Employment Situation: February 2026
February 2026 saw U.S. nonfarm payrolls contract by 133,000, reversing January's 160,000‑job gain. Job losses were widespread, with 36 states posting declines while only 14 recorded modest gains. The construction sector added to the softness, shedding a net 13,000 jobs...
Inflation, Not Growth, Is the Issue—For Now
Oil‑driven inflation fears have pushed nominal Treasury yields higher, yet the real yield on the 10‑year Treasury has climbed 43 basis points since the Iran conflict began in February. Real yield, which strips out inflation expectations, mirrors the market’s view...
Why Trump’s Pick for Fed Chair Will Not Bring Home the Bank for the President
President Donald Trump is pushing former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as chair, arguing that AI‑driven productivity gains justify lower interest rates. Warsh’s hawkish past and his call for cuts clash with the majority of the 11‑member...
America First Fed? Trump Nominee Kevin Warsh Signals ‘Monetary Sovereignty’ Push: Analysts
Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee for Fed chair, signaled a shift toward “monetary sovereignty,” prioritizing domestic productivity and tighter control of the Fed’s balance sheet. In testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, he pledged to work with the Treasury to...
Christopher J Waller: Modernising Federal Reserve Operations in the 21st Century
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller outlined a roadmap to modernize the Fed’s operational backbone. He traced the system’s shift from a fully decentralized, paper‑centric model to today’s hybrid where payments, IT and fiscal‑agency work are already centralized. Waller proposed...
Q2 2026 Fixed Income Perspectives
The Q2 2026 Fixed Income Perspectives note a shift from early‑year optimism—driven by resilient growth and easing inflation—to a landscape dominated by geopolitical volatility, especially the Iran conflict, and rising energy prices. These forces are pushing rates higher, widening credit spreads,...
Thune Nudges Trump to "Wrap Up" Fed Probe
Senate Majority Leader John Thune is urging the Trump administration to end the Department of Justice investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell so that Kevin Warsh can be confirmed as the next Fed chair. The confirmation is stalled because Senator...
Surging Gas Prices Will Cost Americans $857 More in 2026
The Iran war has pushed global oil prices up more than 30%, driving U.S. gasoline costs up $857 per driver in 2026. Retail data show a 15.5% surge in gas‑station sales in March, the biggest jump since the Census began...
Fed Nominee Warsh Questioned on Independence From Trump and Personal Wealth
President Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, former governor Kevin Warsh, faced a contentious Senate hearing focused on his monetary‑policy stance, personal wealth and ability to resist presidential pressure. Warsh pledged to restore the Fed’s “price stability” and ethical standards...
Advance Notice of a Meeting
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors announced a closed meeting on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. The session, held at the Board’s Washington, D.C., offices and via audio/video link, will focus on monetary‑policy issues. The meeting is scheduled...
Warsh Signals Evolution, Not Revolution at the Fed
Kevin Warsh’s Senate testimony highlighted a push for gradual, not radical, changes at the Federal Reserve. He reiterated long‑held criticism of the Fed’s oversized balance sheet and advocated slow, predictable reductions while relying on interest‑rate tools rather than balance‑sheet adjustments....
How Trump’s War Screwed You Out of Your Trump Tax Refund: Wall Street Has the Receipts
Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) promising historic tax refunds that would lift average checks by about $1,000 and inject $75‑$90 billion of consumer relief. The refunds materialized, with total payouts reaching $265 billion and average checks up 11.2%....
Mother’s Day Spending Expected to Hit $38 Billion
Consumer spending on Mother’s Day is forecast to reach a record $38 billion, up from $34.1 billion last year and surpassing the previous high of $35.7 billion set in 2023. The average gift spend per shopper climbs to $284.25, reflecting a willingness to...
March Pending Home Sales Climb 1.5% as Inventory Grows
Pending home sales increased 1.5% in March, even as mortgage rates rose to about 6.3% by month‑end. New listings surged 21.2% to 439,000, providing the strongest inventory boost in years, while the median list price fell 2.2% year‑over‑year. The South...
MPA Weekly Poll: Grade the Career Performance of Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell may preside over his final Federal Reserve meeting next week, prompting a poll that asks market participants to assign a letter grade to his eight‑year tenure. Since taking the helm in 2018, Powell guided the Fed through the...
U.S. Retail Sales Increased by 1.7% in March
U.S. retail sales surged 1.7% in March, outpacing analysts’ expectations. The gain followed an upward revision of February’s 0.7% increase and was driven largely by a spike in gasoline purchases as oil prices rose sharply amid the Iran‑Israel conflict. Core...
Christopher J Waller: One Transitory Shock After Another
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller warned that the U.S. economy faces a cascade of transitory shocks, starting with the Iran‑Israel conflict that has driven Brent crude to $95 a barrel and lifted headline inflation. He highlighted a historic slowdown...