Mortgage Rates Climb as Inflation Rebounds and Yields Rise
Mortgage rates rose in April, with the 30‑year fixed reaching 6.34% and the 15‑year climbing to 5.69%, marking a 16‑basis‑point and 13‑basis‑point increase respectively. The jump mirrors a higher 10‑year Treasury yield of 4.31%, up 7 basis points, as oil prices stay above $100 per barrel amid Strait of Hormuz tensions. Inflation nudged up to 3.3%, driven by steep energy price gains, while the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.5‑3.75% as Chairman Jerome Powell prepares to step down. New Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh has signaled a preference for trimmed‑mean inflation metrics over headline figures.
A Snapshot of Black Employment Trends Under Trump 2.0: Black Workers—Particularly Men—Are Experiencing Lower Employment Compared with a Year Ago
The Economic Policy Institute reports that Black unemployment rose to 7.6% in the first quarter of 2026, a 1.2‑percentage‑point increase from the same period under the second Trump administration. Black men’s employment‑population ratio dropped 1.7 points to 58.8%, driven primarily...
Warsh's Take on Fed Independence Is Met with Confusion and some Concern
Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee for Fed chair, told Senate committees that the Federal Reserve must remain “strictly independent” in monetary policy but is open to collaborating with Congress and the Treasury on non‑monetary issues. He floated the idea...
Wage Slowdown Leaves Gig Work Filling Pay Gaps
Private-sector wages and salaries rose 0.7% in Q1, while total compensation increased 0.9% thanks largely to benefits. On a 12‑month basis, wage growth slowed to 3.4%, and after inflation the real gain was a mere 0.1%. The slowdown is reflected...
Fed’s Barr Says Private Credit Stress Could Trigger Larger Credit Issues
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned that stress in the $1.8 trillion private‑credit market could trigger a psychological contagion, spilling over into the broader corporate bond market. While direct bank exposure appears limited, ties to insurers and the sector’s opaque valuation...
Quantifying the Impact of the Iran War on US Inflation
The authors combine a calibrated DSGE model of the global oil market with a monthly structural VAR to estimate how the 2026 Iran war’s oil‑supply shock could affect U.S. inflation. A 15 % shortfall lasting one quarter pushes WTI crude to...
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Discount Rate Defined: How It's Used by the Fed and in Cash Flow Analysis
The Federal Reserve’s discount rate serves two distinct purposes: it is the interest rate banks pay for short‑term emergency loans through the discount window, and it is the rate used in discounted cash‑flow (DCF) models to value future cash streams....
JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon Issued Vague Credit Recession Warning, but the Bond Market Has More Pressing Issues
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that a future credit recession could be far worse than expected, even though he offered no specific market signal. At the same time, the impending appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair is prompting...
Meet the Unsinkable U.S. Economy — Oil Prices Are Surging, Iran Tensions ...
U.S. economic data this spring shows surprising resilience despite a new war with Iran and soaring oil prices. Gross domestic product rebounded to a 2% annualized pace in Q1, while manufacturing output extended a four‑month growth streak, the longest in...
‘We’re Worried the Honey Pot Will Run Dry’: Does the Trump Administration...
The Moneyist examines the long‑standing practice of the U.S. Treasury using Social Security surplus balances to fund other federal programs, a process often described as borrowing from the trust fund. Historically, the government tapped these reserves during the Vietnam War...
Top Economist Gary Shilling Says a Recession and a Deep Stock-Market Plunge Are Likely by Year-End
Top economist Gary Shilling warned that a U.S. recession is almost inevitable this year, citing weakening consumer spending, stagnant capital expenditures, and a frozen housing market. He predicts the S&P 500 could plunge up to 30% by year‑end as inflated valuations...
Will the Next Fed Chairman Be More Compliant With Trump?
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and Trump ally, is poised to become Federal Reserve chair. His background as a market‑fixer during the 2008 crisis and ties to Republican circles contrast with his hawkish stance on inflation. Warsh has pledged...
Manufacturing Expands for Fourth Straight Month in April as Prices Surge and Hiring Lags
The Institute for Supply Management reported a PMI of 52.7 for April, matching March and marking the fourth consecutive month of manufacturing expansion. New orders rose to 54.1 while production growth slowed and employment fell to a 46.4 index, extending...
Foreign Direct Investment Adds 33K Jobs Across California
Foreign direct investment in California rose in 2025, with 19,717 foreign‑owned enterprises supporting 847,245 jobs and paying roughly $96.2 billion in wages. The sector added 33,143 jobs compared with the previous year. Japan reclaimed the top spot, backing 130,008 jobs across...
US Manufacturing Holds Up as Costs Gauge Hits Four-Year High
The Institute for Supply Management reported that its prices‑paid index jumped to 84.6 in April, a four‑year high, while the overall Manufacturing PMI steadied at 52.7, matching the strongest level since 2022. Input costs surged as the Iran‑Israel conflict and...
U.S. Jobless Claims Sink to 189,000, Lowest Since 1969
U.S. initial unemployment claims fell to 189,000 for the week ended April 25, the lowest level since 1969 and 26,000 below the previous week. The figure also beat the Bloomberg economists’ median forecast of 212,000. Continuing claims slipped to 1.79 million, a...
Robust 2026-2027 Earnings Growth Is a Live Probability
Wall Street projects robust earnings growth for the S&P 500, with consensus forecasts of 21.8% for calendar 2026 and 14.8% for 2027. Historical data shows that earnings spikes of 40%‑plus have followed past Fed rate‑cut cycles, suggesting the outlook is plausible. The...
‘Cut up the Credit Cards:’ Congress Is Getting Brutal About ‘Embarrassing’ $31 Trillion National Debt
U.S. public debt hit $31.27 trillion as of March 31, edging past the nation’s $31.22 trillion GDP and pushing the debt‑to‑GDP ratio to 100.2%. The milestone triggers annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, intensifying concerns from the Fed, Wall Street and lawmakers. Prominent voices—from...
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The U.S. economy expanded at a 2% annualized rate in Q1 2026, rebounding from a weak finish to 2025. Growth was supported by consumer spending, manufacturing recovery, and services gains. Meanwhile, inflation is rising as oil prices spike due to Middle...
Where Does the K-Shaped Economy Stand in 2026?
The K‑shaped economy, first spotlighted in 2020, remains the dominant narrative in 2026 as wage growth splits between high‑ and low‑income households. CFOs report a bifurcated consumer: the top 20% enjoy accelerating earnings while the bottom 80% tread water, with...
Trump Gives the Go-Ahead for a Major New Canada-U.S. Oil Pipeline
President Donald Trump approved the Bridger Pipeline Expansion, a 650‑mile, 3‑foot‑wide line that would transport up to 550,000 barrels of Canadian crude daily through Montana and Wyoming. The project, dubbed “Keystone Light,” avoids Native American reservations and relies on existing...
The Economy Is Growing – but Soaring Energy Prices Could Put a Damper on That
U.S. GDP showed a 2% annualized gain in Q1, buoyed by big‑tech AI spending and data‑center construction. At the same time, soaring gasoline prices—now $4.30 a gallon after the Iran conflict—are eroding household budgets. Consumer spending grew in March, but...
U.S. Economy Grew 2 Percent in Early 2026 Even as War in Iran Began to Hit Energy Prices
U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 2% annualized pace in Q1 2026, marking continued resilience despite a sharp oil price surge tied to the Iran‑Houthi conflict. The Commerce Department’s inflation‑adjusted data showed private investment, consumer spending and government outlays all...
Economy Rebounds to 2% Growth in Q1, Spurred by AI Spending
U.S. economic growth rebounded in Q1 2026, expanding at a 2% annualized rate as record AI investment lifted business spending. Equipment and structures outlays surged 10.4%, the strongest pace since Q2 2023, while consumer spending rose 1.6% despite a 44%...
1st Quarter 2026 Review
The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow slipped in Q1 2026, marking the first broad decline across large‑cap and growth indices since late 2024. Despite the slide, macro data showed resilience: unemployment fell to 4.3 % in March, jobless claims hovered near 200 000 and core...
Rising Rates Pushed Mortgage Payments Higher in March
Mortgage payments jumped in March as rates and loan sizes rose, pushing the median new purchase‑loan payment 3.4% higher to $2,131, still 1.8% below the year‑ago level. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s affordability index climbed to 154.9, signaling reduced buyer purchasing...
Listen: Why the Federal Reserve Matters More than Ever
In a new Big Brains podcast, Nobel laureate Douglas Diamond examines the future of Federal Reserve leadership and the importance of its independence. He draws lessons from the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank collapse, warning that the Fed must stay vigilant...
Ethan Harris: Core Concerns, Fed Follies
The Loadstar premium piece aggregates recent Federal Reserve developments, noting a series of modest rate hikes, a criminal investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell, and mixed inflation signals that keep markets uneasy. Minutes from the last policy meeting reveal that a...
Mortgage Rates Rise on Iran Standoff, FOMC Meeting News
Mortgage rates halted a three‑week slide on April 30, with the 30‑year fixed advancing 7 basis points to an average of 6.3%. The 10‑year Treasury yield briefly topped 4.4% following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep short‑term rates unchanged and...
US Economy Grows by 2pc in First Quarter
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 2% annualized rate in the first quarter, driven primarily by a rebound in government spending and a sharp rise in artificial‑intelligence‑related investment. Private investment jumped 8.7%,...
Q1 2026 Employment Cost Index: Why Insurers Are Getting Larger Raises Than Workers
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Q1 2026 Employment Cost Index shows private‑sector compensation rose 3.4% year‑over‑year, while employer‑paid health‑insurance costs surged 5.7%, outpacing wages for the fifth consecutive quarter. Real wages barely improved, increasing only 0.1% after inflation. The widening gap...
The David Rubenstein Show: Charlie Scharf (Podcast)
Wells Fargo Chairman and CEO Charlie Scharf told host David Rubenstein that the Federal Reserve’s independence is “critically important” for the stability of the U.S. financial system. He evaluated the current state of the U.S. economy, noting that heightened tensions with...
Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.3%
Mortgage rates edged higher this week, with Freddie Mac’s 30‑year fixed rate rising 7 basis points to 6.3% as the Federal Reserve kept policy rates unchanged. The move coincided with the 10‑year Treasury yield climbing past 4.4% after stalled U.S.–Iran peace...
Burgum Defends Proposed Cuts To Park System Budget During Committee Hearing
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum defended a proposed 40% cut to the National Park Service’s maintenance budget and a 13% cut to the Interior Department in the FY2027 budget request during a Senate Energy and Natural Resources committee hearing on April 29....
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 30th, 2026 (Podcast)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV aired its April 30, 2026 episode featuring Sharmin Mossavar‑Rahmani, chief investment officer for wealth management at Goldman Sachs, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and Heritage Foundation vice‑president Victoria Coates. The trio dissected current macroeconomic data, monetary‑policy...
Fed Faces New Test as Hot Inflation Data Clouds Rate‑cut Hopes
U.S. inflation data showed core personal consumption expenditures rising 0.3% in March and 3.2% year‑over‑year, the strongest pace since late 2023. Headline PCE climbed 0.7% month‑over‑month, driven largely by an 11.6% surge in energy prices linked to the Iran conflict....
Kevin Warsh Wanted a Family Fight at the Fed. Oil Has Provided the Spark
Kevin Warsh, the incoming Federal Reserve chair, has signaled a desire for a more contentious, "family fight" style of policy discussion. Four of the Fed's 12 voting members dissented from the latest statement, the largest split since 1992, as oil...
Kalshi Bettors Called It: Powell Says He Will Stay on as Fed Governor After Chair Term Ends
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced he will remain on the Board of Governors after his chairmanship ends, confirming the 30% probability prediction on Kalshi that he would not resign by June. The Department of Justice dropped its criminal probe...
U.S. Economy Rebounded in the First Quarter of 2026
U.S. real GDP expanded at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026, rebounding sharply from a 0.5% gain in Q4 2025. The surge was anchored by a resurgence in federal non‑defense spending and a 17.2% jump in business equipment investment driven by...
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady for Fourth Straight Meeting as Inflation Risks Persist
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3.5%‑3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting, citing persistent inflation and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Inflation measured by the PCE index rose 3.5% year‑over‑year, with core PCE at 3.2%, while the unemployment...
U.S. Jobless Claims Sink to a 57-Year Low. Jobs Aren’t Easy to Find — or Lose.
Initial jobless claims fell by 26,000 to 189,000 for the week ending April 25, marking the lowest level since 1969. Continuing claims also slipped to a two‑year low of 1.79 million, reflecting fewer layoffs and benefit expirations. The tight labor market has...
US Economy Grows 2% in January–March; Iran War Clouds Outlook
U.S. gross domestic product expanded 2 percent in the first quarter of 2026, rebounding from a modest 0.5 percent gain in the previous quarter. The acceleration was powered by a 9.3 percent annualized surge in federal government spending and an 8.7 percent jump in...
US First-Quarter Growth Rebounds Less than Expected as Inflation Surges
U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 2.0% annualized pace in Q1, falling short of the 2.2% consensus but well above the 0.5% rate recorded in the prior quarter. Growth was anchored by a sharp rebound in business investment, especially...
US Growth Driven by Tech Investment in First Quarter
U.S. first‑quarter GDP grew at a 2% annualised pace, outpacing the 2.3% consensus, largely thanks to a 24% year‑on‑year surge in tech and AI‑related capital spending. Consumer spending eased to 1.6% growth and a widening trade deficit shaved 1.3 percentage...
Book Comments: "The Deficit Delusion"
John Tamny’s new book, “The Deficit Delusion,” argues that the United States cannot be bankrupt because global investors continue to buy Treasury bonds in massive volumes. The author, a RealClearMarkets editor, frames the debate as a free‑market rebuttal to traditional...
US Economic Growth Rebounds 2% as Consumer Spending Slows Amid Iran War
U.S. gross domestic product accelerated to a 2% annualized pace in Q1 2026, reversing a 0.5% slowdown in Q4 2025. The rebound was driven by a 10% jump in government spending and a 6.4% rise in domestic investment, especially in AI‑related infrastructure....
What Did BoC, Fed Meetings Tell Us About the Path Ahead for Interest Rates?
The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve both left policy rates unchanged, maintaining a 1.25‑percentage‑point gap. Each central bank faces distinct challenges: the U.S. enjoys solid growth but wrestles with sticky inflation, while Canada grapples with weaker GDP...
Core Inflation Rate Hit 3.2% in March
The Commerce Department reported that the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% in March, pushing the 12‑month core inflation rate to 3.2%. Including food and energy, the overall CPI climbed 0.7% month‑over‑month and 3.5% year‑over‑year. First‑quarter GDP...
How Powell Just Complicated Trump’s Fed Plans
Jay Powell announced he will stay on as Federal Reserve chair beyond his term expiration next month, delaying the transition to President Trump’s preferred successor. Trump and his pick, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, have been pushing for aggressive rate...
How Kalshi Can Help the Federal Reserve
Kalshi and Polymarket saw trading volumes surge to $50 bn in 2025, up from $16 bn the year before, as they expand beyond sports betting into macroeconomic wagers. Economic contracts—covering GDP, payrolls and inflation—now make up about 1‑2% of activity, attracting the...