One American Loses Their Job for Every 6 Immigrants Removed From the Workforce as Researchers See ‘No Evidence’ that ICE Is Helping the Economy

Why It Matters

The findings challenge the administration’s narrative that stricter immigration enforcement expands job opportunities for Americans, showing instead that deportations can shrink the overall labor market and depress wages across sectors.

Key Takeaways

• ICE arrests rose from ~300 to 1,300 daily, spurring job losses.
• Six undocumented men left work for each ICE arrest.
• One U.S.-born male job lost per six undocumented workers removed.
• Construction employment fell 3% in high‑enforcement areas.
• Deportations may cut high‑skill native wages up to 2.8%.

Pulse Analysis

The Trump administration’s aggressive immigration crackdown, framed as a job‑creation strategy, has intensified ICE operations, with daily apprehensions climbing from roughly 300 to 1,300. Public sentiment, especially among Republicans and right‑leaning independents, continues to favor a hard line on illegal entry, yet the economic fallout is becoming evident. By targeting undocumented workers—who comprise a critical labor pool in low‑skill, high‑demand industries—the policy is reshaping the supply side of the U.S. labor market and prompting a reassessment of its purported benefits.

A recent study from the University of Colorado Boulder, released through the NBER, quantifies this impact. Researchers matched spikes in ICE arrests with local employment data, revealing a stark “chilling effect”: for every six undocumented male workers who exited the labor force, one native‑born male job vanished. The effect is most pronounced in sectors like construction and agriculture, where immigrant labor complements native workers. In high‑enforcement zones, native‑born employment in construction dropped 3%, and overall male labor participation declined noticeably, underscoring the interdependence of immigrant and domestic workforces.

The broader economic implications extend beyond headline job counts. Complementarity means that removing immigrant labor can depress wages for high‑skill native workers, with some models projecting a 2.8% wage reduction over three decades. Firms facing labor shortages are scaling back projects, further dampening demand for domestic labor. As the 2024 election approaches, these findings provide a data‑driven counterpoint to political rhetoric, suggesting that mass deportations may erode rather than expand economic opportunity for U.S. workers.