What to Expect From a Warsh-Led Fed
J.P. Morgan chief U.S. economist Michael Ferole breaks down what to expect from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose past statements swing between hawkish and dovish. Ferole notes the FOMC is already shifting toward a more hawkish stance, with limited room for rate cuts given high inflation, solid labor markets, and rising inflation expectations. Warsh is likely to keep forward guidance modest and maintain the current communication style, while navigating a committee dominated by strong voices and a president eager for low rates. The discussion also touches on balance‑sheet tightening, the low probability of changing the PCE inflation target, and upcoming data that will shape the June meeting outlook.
Barry Eichengreen and Chima Simpson-Bell on Currencies that Shine
In this episode, economists Barry Eichengreen and Chima Simpson‑Bell discuss the gradual erosion of the U.S. dollar’s dominance as a global reserve currency, noting that its share of foreign‑exchange reserves has slipped from just over 70% to under 60% and...
Xi, Putin and Pressures on Asia FX
In this episode, NatWest Markets FX’s Asia Head of Strategy, Aditya Sharma, contrasts the recent diplomatic ceremonies in China for President Trump and President Putin, noting the similar pomp but differing political subtexts. He highlights China’s strong energy reserves and...
What’s Driving Japan’s Market Momentum
In this live Japan Summit episode, Morgan Stanley’s macro team discusses Japan’s reflation narrative, the impact of the recent energy shock, and why Japanese equities are favored over emerging markets. While short‑term nominal GDP may dip due to higher oil...
Friday: Stocks Surge & Oil Falls on Peace Deal Report
The episode covered a rally in U.S. equities and a drop in oil prices sparked by reports of a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal, while global PMI data showed a sharp slowdown in European factories but resilience in the U.S. economy....
Macro Matters: DWS’ Catrambone on Long-End Selloff, Warsh Fed
In this episode of Macro Matters, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Ira Jersey talks with George Katchenbohn, Head of Fixed Income for the Americas at DWS Group, about the recent surge in long‑term U.S. Treasury yields, now above 5% on the 30‑year, and...
Metal Movers: The Global Aluminium Supply Squeeze
The episode examines the tightening global aluminium market caused by the Israel‑Iran conflict, highlighting how European buyers now prioritize supply security over sustainability, with LME stocks at historic lows and contracts in backwardation. In the U.S., concerns mirror Europe as...
Thursday: Oil Falls on Middle East Deal Hopes
The episode covered a sharp drop in oil prices—over 6%—driven by hopes for a US‑Iran peace deal, which lifted US equities and lowered Treasury yields. ANZ analysts discussed the implications for inflation, rate cuts, and the yen, noting that rising...
REPLAY: Ed Elson on The New Normal
In this debut Substack Live session, Ed Elson delivers his "New Normal" keynote, dissecting the massive economic shifts reshaping the world and how investors can navigate them. He critiques the viral "nothing ever happens" meme and betting bots that assume...
The Deal that Put the Dollar at the Centre of the World
The episode unpacks the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference, the chaotic three‑week summit that cemented the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency and birthed the IMF and World Bank. It contrasts John Maynard Keynes’s ambitious Bancor‑based plan for a global...
US-China Summit: What Happens Next?
In this episode of ComBank View Economics and Markets, host Mandy Drury and senior geoeconomics analyst Madison Cartwright dissect the outcomes of President Trump's summit with President Xi in Beijing. They note that the agreements were modest—200 Boeing jets, $17 billion...
Divided We Stall
The episode “Divided we stall” reviews the stark contrast between U.S. and European market moves on May 19, 2026, highlighting rising U.S. Treasury yields, falling equities, and soaring oil prices amid geopolitical tension over the Strait of Hormuz, while European...
Tuesday: China's Economy Slows in April
The episode examines China’s unexpectedly weak April economic data, highlighting declines in industrial production, retail sales, and a 2.3% drop in fixed‑asset investment—the steepest since early 2020. It contrasts this slowdown with a surge in AI‑driven data‑center equipment exports from...
UK Politics, AI Boom and Market Resilience
In this episode, Anna MacDonald and Matt Britsman dissect the fallout from the recent UK local elections, noting rising gilt yields and the potential for higher risk premiums as political uncertainty looms. They then shift to global market dynamics, highlighting...
The Scary Link Between Politics, Oil and Your Bills
In this episode Dan Coatsworth and Charlene Young dissect how UK gilt yields have spiked to 30‑year highs—5.8%—driven by Middle‑East oil price shocks and political uncertainty after recent local elections and leadership challenges. They explain the ripple effect on mortgage...