Friday: Stocks Surge & Oil Falls on Peace Deal Report

The Friday market wrap opened with a clear rally in US equities as the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all posted modest gains after Al Arabiya hinted at an imminent US‑Iran peace agreement. The optimism pushed oil down 2%, with Brent slipping to around $103 per barrel. Meanwhile, PMI surveys painted a mixed picture: Europe and the UK saw sharp manufacturing contractions, while the United States reported solid activity, undercutting expectations of further ECB tightening and supporting a more dovish rate outlook.

In the commodities segment, ANZ’s Sunny Kamari highlighted a fundamental shift in gold demand. For the first time, bar and coin purchases outpaced jewelry, signalling that investors are valuing gold’s safe‑haven appeal over aesthetic consumption. The divergence is reinforced by policy moves: China is streamlining gold import licences to boost inflows, whereas India has hiked import duties to 15%, aiming to curb demand and protect the rupee. This split creates a net‑positive environment for global gold supply dynamics, even as Indian consumption contracts.

Looking ahead, the macro backdrop suggests slower growth from lingering energy shocks and higher inflation, which could force central banks toward easier policy. A softer monetary stance would further underpin gold’s bullish case, with analysts projecting prices near $6,000 per ounce by mid‑2027. Investors should monitor the RBA’s stance—likely holding rates at 4% after a softening jobs report—and watch for any breakthrough in the Iran peace talks, both of which could add volatility to equities and commodities alike.