NYC Inflation Outpaces Nation, Fueled by Energy, Rent, Groceries
Data on inflation in NYC metro area out today. CPI up 4.6% here over past 12 months, compared to 3.8% nationally. Local price increases are being driven mainly by rise in cost of: * Energy (especially electricity) * Rent (up 4.3% here vs 2.8% US) * Groceries (up 5.9%[!] here vs 2.9% US
Inflation Hits 35‑year High While Jobs Stay Strong
Here's the big picture of today's US CPI reading and last week's unemployment rate - the Fed's dual mandate. The 2.8% reading isn't high relative to the 2022 pandemic peak, but it is highest relative to the past 35 years....
High Inflation, Oil, Strong GDP: Bonds Remain Unattractive
Inflation running above expectations, oil holding above $90, Atlanta Fed GDPNow pointing to +3.7% GDP for 2Q'26 (thanks data center buildout)...difficult to make a bull case for bonds (or rate cuts) for the foreseeable future.
US Plans T‑Bill‑Backed Stablecoins to Fund Deficits
"It's fine - we'll just shift issuance to the front end, have Warsh cut rates & flood the world with T-Bill backed stablecoins to finance US deficits..." https://t.co/pC68U8KAWt
Cleveland Fed Median CPI Jumps, 12‑month Rise Hits 2.8
The Cleveland Fed's median CPI was +0.40% in April, or 4.9% annualized. The 12-month median CPI ticked up to 2.8%, the first such increase since last summer. (The median CPI looks at the price change of the item sitting in the...
BLS Adds Secondhand Apparel to CPI Amid Rising Demand
Given consumer preferences shifting toward secondhand goods & expanding availability & improving quality control of secondhand apparel, BLS incorporated secondhand apparel into the CPI in early 2025 & is researching including other secondhand goods. https://t.co/VsgPCYfAYR
U.S. Inflation Stubbornly Above 2% for Six Years
Crafting headlines is notoriously challenging, particularly when trying to balance competing considerations and objectives. With that important qualification in mind, it is improtant to note that America’s inflation challenge isn’t just about the gas pump. The economy is now in its...
Inflation and Hormuz Tensions Force Supply Chain Rethink
US inflation. Strait of Hormuz. What will retailers and manufacturers do? And their supply chains? And logistics?
CPI Inflation Signals Rate Hikes Despite Trump’s Calls
Despite Trump’s demands for lower interest rate, CPU inflation looks like a raise in rates is likely.
Core
Seen some say that ex-rent & OER the core was moderate, but not sure this is the case. Median CPI likely 0.40% and 16% trimmed likely 0.44%. Core ex-rent&OER was 0.26%, 3.1% SAAR. YoY rose to 2.3% vs a 2017-19...
CPI Shows Record Rent Surge, Contradicts Private Data
A truly bizarre CPI shelter inflation reading for April. CPI shows the fastest month-over-month ACCELERATION in rent and OER since 2023. There's zero evidence of this in any of the higher-quality private sector datasets. https://t.co/ylVrh5TORW
Domestic Airfare Growth Slows, Upside Remains Strong
Airfares were up 6.3% NSA (2.8% SA vs my 1.2% est). About 1.5pp of that includes baggage fees. Without those, fares were up closer to 5.0% NSA. That includes a surge in int'l fares and a much more subdued rise...
62 Months of High Inflation Undermines Fed Credibility
62. As in 62 consecutive months with US inflation above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed lost all credibility when it comes to fighting inflation. https://t.co/JG9GxNCk36
USTs Enter Depression Phase, Accept Potential Rate Hike Cycle
Looks like USTs are past denial, anger and bargaining, and well on their way to depression and acceptance of the possibility of a hike cycle.
April CPI Spikes, Wages Lag Low‑income, Affluent Spend
CPI rose 0.6% in April after a 0.9% increase in March, the fastest two-month gain since May and June of 2022. The index surged 3.8% from a yr ago, 0.2% above wage gains for the month & the hottest pace...
Homeowner Insolvencies Surge to 2009 Crisis Levels
Why Are Bankruptcies & Insolvencies Growing So Fast? They Have Reached 2009 World Financial Crisis Levels Main Reasons: - The Collapse of Residential Real Estate - Growing Unemployment in Full Time Jobs - Inflation Destroys Affordability This will likely get much worse The most striking aspect...
CPI Turns Indicator Bearish, Oil Prices Gaining Influence
Today's CPI report pushed our disinflation/inflation indicator into its bearish mode. It's one part of the mosaic, but it's getting harder to say that higher oil prices are not having a broader impact. @NDR_Research https://t.co/tI1Z6ps4Ye
Fuel‑price Shock Persists as SPR Nears Historic Low
Headline inflation increased 3.3 -> 3.8% in April, although Core PCE was 2.6 -> 2.8%. Trump authorized a 53MM bbl release from the SPR yesterday and said that he’ll suspend the federal fuel tax. But assuming that inflation is driven principally...
US CPI Climbs to 3.8% in April, Inflation Persists
The U.S. Consumer Price Index jumped from 3.3%/yr in March to 3.8%/yr in April. As I've been saying, the U.S. inflation genie is not going to be put back in the bottle any time soon. https://t.co/jCBH3ue3IK
Markets Unfazed by 3.8% CPI and Iran Tensions
CPI 3.8% YOY and Equities, like the War with Iran, just don't seem to care.
April CPI Won’t Shift Fed, New Chair Faces Tough Odds
April CPI won't change minds at the Fed. But more of this will complicate the dovish case, which has already flipped away from arguing for cuts and towards arguing against toying with hikes. It's a tough inheritance for a new Fed...
Cut Deficit Spending, End Inflation—Congress Must Act
Stop deficit spending and inflation will end as if by magic. This isn’t hard, except getting Congress to make the necessary cuts. https://t.co/ZAbbfW3iZT
Fed Must Stay Restrictive Until Extra 13% Inflation Vanishes
Monetary policy should be restrictive until the 13% additional inflation we've had since January 2020 above the 2% trendline is erased. There's no point in having a 2% inflation target if you're not going to adhere to it. The Fed...
Inflation Climbs to 3.8%, Energy Now Primary Driver
#Inflation finally takes a bite. Jumps to 3.8% as #energy replaces #tariffs as driver of higher prices. #realestate #CRE #Trump #Iran #StraitsofHormuz #gasoline #mortgage #interestrates #TheFed https://t.co/ygaDzZOIBU
Higher‑than‑expected Inflation Dampens Fed Cut Hopes, Stay Cautious
Inflation (CPI) just came in at 3.8%, higher than expected. Last month’s CPI was 3.3%. Higher inflation reduces the odds of Fed rate cuts, which is bad for risk assets like stocks and crypto. Markets seem to be overlooking the negative impact of...
Stocks Surge Despite Hot US CPI—Will Rally Hold?
US Inflation CPI comes in HOT but stocks rally - WHY? Can the move last? https://t.co/k6Rb0gt4WW
Everyday Essentials—Gas, Groceries, Electricity—Prices All Climbing
It's not just gas prices going up... Grocery prices and electricity also jumping. These are the basic costs for most Americans.
April CPI Spikes to 3.8%, Fed Lagging Behind
US CPI Inflation Rate moved up to 3.8% in April, its highest level since May 2023. The Inflation Rate is now back above the Fed Funds Rate and CPI is likely headed above 4%. The Fed is once again behind...
More Hours, Lower Real Pay as Inflation Erodes Wages
Americans are trying to work more hours to keep up as gas and food prices rise. Even so, real average weekly earnings **Decreased** in April as inflation ate up all the wage gains and extra hours worked. Real weekly earnings for...
Core Services Inflation Spikes, Undermining Tariff‑only Narrative
The optimistic story on inflation has been that the recent firming has been tariff-led (which would show up in goods) and therefore won't be sustained as tariffs aren't going to ratchet higher year after year. The April CPI, in isolation, isn't...
Rising CPI Makes Rate Cuts Hard for New Fed Chair
Latest CPI report underscores how tough it will be for Warsh to deliver cuts once he takes over as Fed chair. Core CPI is up 0.4% in April, or 2.8% compared to the same time last year. This comes on...
Shelter Inflation Softens; Data Adjustments Explain Apparent Spike
The shelter data DOUBLE counts as they include the data that was missing in October last year during the shutdown. So NO, there is no NASTY jump in shelter inflation. It is actually a pretty soft report outside of energy.
Core CPI at 0.4% Could Yield 4.9% YoY
A Multipolar World - Got Hard Assets? CPI Core MoM: 0.4% vs 0.3% exp. If monthly CPI rises by 0.4% each month for the next 12 months and compounds, the year-over-year CPI inflation rate over 12 months would...
Fuel Oil Spikes 54%, Gasoline up 28% in Year
Price changes over last year (April CPI report) Fuel Oil: +54.3% Gasoline: +28.4% Electricity: +6.1% Transportation: +4.3% Apparel: +4.2% Overall CPI: +3.8% Food away from home: +3.6% Shelter: +3.3% Medical Care: +3.2% Gas Utilities: +3.0% Food at home: +2.9% New Cars: +0.2% Used Cars: -2.7%
Inflation Outpaces Wage Gains, Squeezing American Finances
JUST IN: Inflation is now eating up all wage gains for the first time in about three years. This is painful for Americans and a true financial squeeze. CPI Inflation in past year: 3.8% Wage gains: in past year: 3.6% https://t.co/dNa5VvS5DE
CPI Spikes to 3.8%, Dampening Rate‑cut Hopes
Inflation CPI just came at 3.8% higher then expected. Last month CPI was 3.3%. Inflation is running hot & this will lower the chance of rate cuts
Inflation Surges Above Expectations in Latest Report
Latest inflation report just dropped, and it came in hot, and slightly hotter than most folks expected. https://t.co/TTvmbXLQ8r
April CPI Surges Above Forecast, Core Inflation Accelerates
"CPI increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April ... Core CPI rose 0.4 percent in April. CPI rose 3.8 percent for the 12 months ending April... Core CPI rose 2.8 percent over the year." This was above the...
US Inflation Spikes to 3.8% in April, Driven by Gas
JUST IN: U.S. inflation jumped to 3.8% (y/y) in April--> the highest in three years. This is painful for Americans, especially moderate-income households. Inflation rose 0.6% in the month of April due to soaring gas prices that accounted for over 40%...
Inflation Beats Forecasts: CPI and Core Rise Higher
CPI 0.6% m/m as expected CPI 3.8% y/y, exp 3.7% Core 0.4% m/m, exp. 0.3% Core 2.8% y/y, exp. 2.7%
Markets Brace for Hotter US Inflation, Stocks Fall
🚨 US Inflation Report on Tap - Markets are bracing for a hotter inflation print: ⬇️ Stocks ⬇️ Gold ⬆️ USD ⬆️ Yields Here’s what everyone is watching 👇 CPI - MoM 0.6% forecast, 0.9% prior CPI - YoY 3.7% forecast, 3.3% prior CPI Core MoM -...
AI Adoption Rates Matter as Much as Exposure Metrics
Occupational exposure metrics are useful & important, but they sometimes disagree & they may not measure vulnerability to displacement well. I increasingly think AI *adoption* rates are just as important for monitoring labor market effects as *exposure* rates.
Expect Another Surge in Long-Term U.S. Rates
The Factor Report continues to note the potential for another higher thrust in long-term U.S. rates. Updates will be provided via the weekly Factor Update $ZB_F The Factor Report provides commentary on my personal positions as traded by Factor LLC. https://t.co/gDeM5nTRIY https://t.co/ST0wow86Xi
Core CPI Set to Rise as Shelter Inflation Rebounds
Forecasters expect a higher core CPI reading in April owing partly to how the BLS made an assumption during the government shutdown's data blackout that lowered shelter inflation. That quirk goes the other way now. https://t.co/HnH5OR4uWd
Old Wall Bets Inflation Slowing Ahead of CPI
The Old Wall is running for the "inflation is slowing" exits, the day before CPI prints. Thanks for coming out
Labor Share Climbed 1950‑2000, Then Plummeted
If we use a net measure of the labor share, we see that the labor share ROSE from the 1950s until around the year 2000, and then began to collapse.
Strong GDP, EPS, and Margin Expansion Drive Market Rally
Folks wonder why $SPX up 17% and $QQQ up 27% from 3/30 lows - bc GDP is 3.7% and EPS up 25%. More importantly TR up 11% w margins expanding for EQ weight at 14.3% - old highs were 14.5%....
Warsh Nomination Sparks Fed Politicization, Prompting 10Y Selloff
Macro: Warsh nomination raises Fed politicization. Key: White House pressure, rate path, balance-sheet plans. Risk: policy uncertainty. Trade: shorten duration—sell 10Y Treasuries into June meeting. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Middle East War Could Cost US Households Billions
From the Financial Times article seeking to estimate the economic cost of the Middle East war to US households, businesses, and the federal budget. #economy #markets #middleeastwar @financialtimes
CPI Test Will Challenge Chip Rally Amid War‑driven Inflation
Is the stock market really immune as the US-Iran war fuels inflation? Incoming US CPI data will test if the narrow chip stocks rally can continue to ignore economic headwinds. #StockMarket #stockmarkets #IranWar #cpi #macro #dollar #trading https://t.co/LImbMLZv4B