US Economy Social Media and Updates
US Economy Social Media and Updates
If the 10Y breaks 4.5%… does geopolitics change? Or does policy get forced to change first? https://t.co/yInQSNy76L
"The 10Y and inflation moving up are not good for asset prices." Ram on @bitsandbips https://t.co/6eQLOwwmn9
Williams of @NewYorkFed echoes Powell’s view this morning that the Fed can afford to wait and see the economic impact of the Iran war before making any policy moves. He expects the burst of inflation stemming from the war to fade...
We are starting to see what I would characterize as true capitulation. When you see bond yields coming down sharply, even if the oil price is a tad up, while the USD strengthens and equities sell off, it smells like...
Powell says US debt is growing fast, and that something needs to be done Powell has also been the Fed Chair the last few years and holds some power What has he been doing? https://t.co/c7TWjsGmju
The latest Gallup survey found that job sentiment has PLUNGED. 72% of American employees said it was a BAD TIME to find a quality job. TRUMP’S TARIFFS + TRUMP’S WAR ON IRAN = US JOB MARKET TROUBLES. https://t.co/7LmRVUwORW
People want ‘clarity’ from the Fed. You’re not getting it. The only clarity is price. Watch cross-asset divergence — it’s the market’s way of calling BS. https://t.co/DOeCFhRtA4
Lower rates today helping yield-sensitive S&P 500 sectors.. but not the small caps... 8/11 SPX sector ETFs up with the index -0.15% https://t.co/1d07AUB0cD
The BEA updated the US net international investment position last week for Q4 '25 and it stood at $27.5 trillion. That's the amount of assets foreigners own in the US vs what the US owns in the rest of the...
Powell doesn’t seem particularly concerned about inflation. Plenty of “tools” left in the toolbox, apparently :) Two words come to mind: Hard Assets. https://t.co/hITFzs7Q38 https://t.co/POZgWWN4c6
Since 1997, the price of college tuition in the United States has more than tripled. https://t.co/5Atv7qDx6T
POWELL: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN WELL ANCHORED - Bloomberg. *Inflation expectations (breakevens), below. "Well anchored?" https://t.co/oWnwOzgMcY
As we approach the 1-year anniversary of "Liberation Day" this week, @sdonnan reports that new foreign investment in the US was actually down significantly last year: https://t.co/s1wGG4RQiu
For most of the past three years, falling energy prices had been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis. CPI...
Does restocking = industrial recovery if no follow through foreseen? Philly Fed Mfg Delivery Times hit 4-year high of 18.9 in March, FUTURE Delivery Times’ -4.7 was 3-year low; 23.6 point spread a -2.0 z-score reinforcing restocking as did falling Expected...
Fed funds futures mostly back to "normal" as the near term rate hike gets priced out. Live chart vs last Thurs. https://t.co/F0dnQCJ9pu
New @nberpubs: "The Cold War and the U.S. Labor Market" https://t.co/uDe0Mn2o4R "the 1950s-to-1990s decline in defense production explains roughly one-quarter of the decline in manufacturing employment" https://t.co/LjOZhGC7OZ
Here is what I said: “If your only hope is two Fed cuts this year, you’re backing the wrong horse.”
Below is an example of a new and ongoing economic risk to the US economy from the US-Israeli War on Iran — What begins as a "cost of living" problem (Energy Price Shock), if sustained, risks evolving into a "fewer...
Good thing the Fed has plenty of room to tighten conditions to address this… Oh wait…. https://t.co/xZ0zMju2vr https://t.co/uMkuuXymWU
Larry Fink: oil could hit $150/bbl — even AFTER a ceasefire — if Iran remains a threat. Brent is already at $112. The tail risk isn't priced. Equities are still trading like this ends cleanly. What does $150 oil do to inflation? To...
Polymarket recession odds jumped from 23% to 35%. That's real money moving in a prediction market. Not a survey. Not a pundit. People betting their own capital. Goldman: 30%. JPMorgan: 35%. Zandi: 49%. The crowd and the institutions are converging on the same...
My take in @asiatimesonline on US debt: “The US gov't is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole — it’s the conclusion drawn directly from the Treasury Department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, which was released last week to near-total media silence.”...
Sec. Bessent, February 2025: "Judge us by the 10y UST yield." 10y UST yield (blue, RS) v. oil, since Bessent said that 👇 "3 Arrows" about to turn into "0-for-3 Arrows": https://t.co/goqhygmgv6
For the American economy, the key different between the current energy shock and previous ones is the (lack of) impact in US natural gas prices. That's crucial for industrial activity and electricity prices (and thus inflation). Far less reported than...
Bond markets have rapidly repriced near-term expectations for U.S. inflation in response to surging commodity prices. The implied 1-year breakeven inflation rate is now above 5% for the first time since 2022. Elevated bond market-implied inflation expectations may present a problem...
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate very low.. Fed has some wiggle room here @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/7ebc7VndLU
The most correlated macro data that explains the 10-2 yield curve is the unemployment rate. Why? The short end drives most of the movements in the curve, and employment heavily influences the short end via Fed policy. This relationship goes...
Goldman now sees US growth at 1.25-1.75%. That's stall speed. Not a soft landing. An economy running on fumes. At 1.25%, one supply shock — one policy mistake — tips it over. The runway is shorter than anyone on CNBC is admitting. $SPY $DIA https://t.co/4Krvew1NCo
Diesel: $3.89 → $5.37/gal. Every truck. Every delivery. Every shelf. The inflation pipeline hasn't fully hit yet. Freight costs are the slow burn that shows up 60-90 days later. You haven't felt this yet. You will. $XLE $IYT https://t.co/OaV580UlNv
February payrolls: -92,000. Unemployment: 4.5%. The labor market cracked while everyone watched oil. A cracked labor market + rising rates + slowing growth. That's not a soft landing. That's three warning signs firing at once. $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/LY08qXAJYh
Powell out in May. Warsh in. Market is pricing hikes. New chair may cut. The wildcard nobody's discussing: what if the Fed pivots just as inflation re-accelerates? One transition. Two completely different outcomes. $SPY $TLT https://t.co/zmsbBtchWk
No major inflation scare yet... 1yr inflation swap only about 3%.. not alarming by historical trends Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/YfD4ihEjtb
2Y yield: 3.89%. 5Y yield: crossed 4%. Everyone was positioned for rate cuts. Everyone was wrong. Bloomberg calls it the biggest positioning squeeze in years. The bond market just delivered a reality check. $TLT $IEF https://t.co/jyYH8ebPrR
We started 2026 with multiple rate cuts priced in. Now the market is leaning towards a hike. The 10-year is at 4.43% and still accelerating. We cover what that feedback loop means for stocks in the latest episode. $SPY $QQQ $IEF...
I expect the April 10th CPI print to spike 70-100 basis points, coming in north of 3%. And then the Fed is going to hike rates 🥸
Robust consumer spending on manicures, haircuts, and dog daycare is FORCING services inflation to 3.3%/yr. That's stubbornly above the Fed's 2%/yr target. THE US WILL NEVER GET THE INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/YhMhZTG7Gl
3m10y yield spread 71bps... highest since July 2022... time to step out on the duration-risk curve? $AGG https://t.co/ozSwbxzLA4
Goldman 30%. JPM 35%. Zandi 49%. Recession odds are climbing fast. When does consensus cross 50%? The market is still priced for a soft landing. Economists are no longer calling it one. $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/XqeBtrupla
🇺🇸 US inflation keeps rising. As long as the US-Iran conflict persists, inflation will likely stay elevated. https://t.co/LatxByAQYN
Rising inflation and gas prices aren’t the only economic challenges arising from the Iran war. Mortgage rates have risen 4 weeks in a row since Trump started the conflict; the average 30-year rate is now 6.38%. @wsj
Thanks to Trump's war on Iran, Goldman Sachs concludes that the US economy will take A BIG HIT. It's time to start taking the 2nd President of the U.S. Thomas Jefferson's proclamation seriously: "I hold it that a little rebellion now...
10Y yield at 4.44%. Highest since July 2025. Rates rising while growth fears mount. $TLT sellers and $SPY sellers agree on one thing: neither wants to own the future right now. That's a problem. https://t.co/lYjNri1VOz
Fed Fund futures market is loose.. now just a 28% chance of a hike by October https://t.co/xszONB6nqL
The National Debt Could Hit $50 Trillion Trump says we need short-term pain for long-term gain – but I'm not hearing anything about cutting government spending or raising taxes to cover the $50 billion we keep borrowing. I'm predicting the national...
What's interesting is that if you align on experience [left], comparing entry level workers with a BA to younger non-BA workers with little/no experience, the BA wage premium was stable for decades then fell precipitously during the pandemic, only rising...
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu ”Consumer sentiment fell back 6% this month to its lowest level since December 2025. Declines were seen across age and political party. Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating...
What was equally intriguing in Friday’s trading was the unhinging of the short end of the curve from the long end. The 2-yr yield fell by 7.4 bps to 3.91% while that of the benchmark 10-yr rose by 1.6 bps to...
1/5 Good Chris Griswold piece on the implications of the decline last year in manufacturing jobs. I would add one other thing, and that is that there are two completely separate reasons for a decline in manufacturing jobs.
100% of any tax increase should go to pay down the deficit. I would love to hear Republicans twist themselves into knots over this.
