Consumer Sentiment Misses, Jobs Beat Estimates, Unemployment Steady
📊 Pre-Market Brief | Fri, May 8 ─────── 📅 MACRO DATA Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Act 48.2 | Est 49.7 | Prior 49.8 🔴 Average Hourly Earnings m/m: Act 0.2 | Est 0.3 | Prior 0.2 🔴 Non-Farm Employment Change: Act 115 | Est 65 | Prior 185 🟢 Unemployment Rate: Act 4.3 | Est 4.3 | Prior 4.3 🟢 ─────── 💰 MAG 7 EARNINGS None this week 🏛️ FED No Fed speakers today ─────── 🎬 Trade it live 9am NY: https://t.co/UFRUqEw6Kf
Nonprofit Hospital Tax Break Costs $300B in Ten Years
Worth noting: Based on CRFB's "2024 estimates, the tax exemption for nonprofit hospitals will cost the federal government nearly $300 billion in lost revenue over the next decade."
Tax Refunds Surge 18% to $320.5B This Season
Nice economic boost. $320.5B has been refunded to taxpayers this season so far, up +18.3% from last year. Through 5/1, the average refund amount is tracking up +11.1% from last year to $3,273. Chart via RBC https://t.co/Dt3vcAqRtX
Powell’s Capitol Hill Testimony Exhausts Congressional Audiences
Fed Chair Powell really did “wear out the carpets” on Capitol Hill. (A slide from @td_econ’s presentations at @HooverInst monetary policy conference.) https://t.co/QZA1xbFmKC
Tariffs and War Drive US Sentiment to Record Low
The University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index dropped to an ALL-TIME LOW. TRUMP'S TARIFFS & WAR MADNESS = CRUSHES AMERICAN SENTIMENT. https://t.co/DHKLYvmp7D
Stagflation Tension Highlights Fed’s Policy Dilemma
The Weekly Quill — The Tug-of-War Between Stag & -Flation - QI Research https://t.co/7NazYjc7Ln #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/4wmSodUNiO
U.S. Adds 55k Jobs Monthly, Strongest Six‑month Streak Since 2025
55k US jobs per month were added over the last 6 months, the strongest 6-month growth rate since May 2025. https://t.co/nDPoQrhKtq
10-Year Yield Above 4.5% Signals Trouble Ahead
All this may be happening when the long bond is coiling inside what looks like a bearish continuation pattern. Real rates are rising, as are inflation expectations via the TIPS market. Remember: nothing good happens above 4.5% (for the 10-year)....
Half of Fed Forecasters Now Expect No Rate Cuts This Year
More sell-side firms and Fed watchers are removing/delaying cuts from their outlook, including a couple forecasters after the April NFP. Half now see no cuts this year (and risks are clearly tilted to this group continuing to grow given inertial...
Oil Spike May Force Fed Rate Hike, Defying Playbook
For the Fed and incoming Chair Warsh, a left tail oil spike could throw sand into the gears of the emerging Warsh-Bessent playbook of lower short rates and easier debt financing. In fact, my various interpretations of the Taylor Rule...
Fed Must Address Fiscal Sustainability, Says Mike Levy
The Fed should be able to talk about fiscal sustainability, MIke Levy says (crediting @B_Eichengreen for bringing it up) as it affects monetary policy. @HooverInst
U.S. Government Debt Swelled Nearly Tenfold Since Magazine Cover
According to @awealthofcs, government debt is up from $430 billion when this magazine cover came out to nearly $40 trillion today. That is almost a 10x. https://t.co/ELdzuCU36y
Party Dismisses Jobs Data, Then Lauds It in Power
Never fails...out of power party says increasing jobs numbers are bogus. Then the party gets in power and touts "incredible" jobs numbers month after month.
Warsh Seeks Fed Balance‑sheet Cuts Post‑LCR Easing
Serious question for fixed income experts: Warsh wants to reduce the Fed balance sheet after bank regulations are eased - specifically the liquidity coverage ratio requirements that forces banks to hold large reserve balances (~$3 trillion). So if/when the reserve requirements are...
Bond Investors, Fed Use Different Treasury Valuation Models
Bond investors and Fed policy makers use different models on how to look at Treasuries, @HannoLustig says. @HooverInst
Higher‑base Inflation Risk Echoes 1970s Oil Shock
If this left tail manifests, it would happen at the worst time from an inflation perspective. Since the 9% COVID spike in 2022, the inflation rate has settled down to 3%. That’s better than 9% but it’s not the Fed’s...
Federal Workforce Hits Lowest Since 1966, Share Plummets
Federal government shed about 12% of its headcount since January 2025, now down to 2.66 million civilian jobs, lowest since 1966. Its share of total nonfarm payrolls drops to 1.68%, lowest by far in the data going back to 1939 https://t.co/3bGZv7hdHS https://t.co/0HxNSnTWjG
Robust Job Growth Fuels Fed Hawks, Delays Rate Cuts
The Civil War with the Fed just got more interesting as the year-to-date job growth will give the Fed hawks more ammunition not to cut rates. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #labor #economics #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
U.S. Labor Supply Shrinks as Private Jobs Surge
Weirdest U.S. Labor Market I’ve Ever Seen: Supply of Labor Shrinks Further while Private-Sector Jobs Grow. Federal government sheds more jobs, now down to 1968 levels. This labor market isn’t bad, just weird https://t.co/3bGZv7hdHS https://t.co/BBSgSz4W0J
U.S. Worker Pay Has Fallen Behind Economy Since 1970
U.S. Worker Pay Has Declined Relative to the Economy Since 1970 #Wages #IncomeInequality #LaborShare #USWorkers #EconomicTrends #ProductivityGap #WealthGap #MacroEconomics #WorkingClass #Growth https://t.co/hC2E2WX9AD
Regional Fed Presidents Guard Against Groupthink
David Wilcox: regional Federal Reserve Presidents play crucial role in avoiding groupthink at the Fed. @HooverInst
Nominal Wage Growth Stabilizes, Yet Supply Shocks Threaten Real Incomes
This data is somewhat backward looking now, but... We had been seeing a soft landing in the reported pace of nominal labor income growth. Stabilizing around a healthy pace. Problem is self-inflicted supply shocks are already raising inflation again. Will weigh...
BofA Delays Fed Rate Cuts to 2027
"We push the two cuts in our Fed forecast out from Sep-Oct '26 to Jul-Sep '27. The data simply don't warrant cuts this year." - BofA
Powell Warns Removal Power Threatens Fed Independence
David Wilcox points out Powell, without being explicitly asked about, pointed to the governors' ability to remove regional Fed Presidents as a risk to independence in his latest press conference. @HooverInst https://t.co/J4Uy69mrei https://t.co/Q0ltpyO3sf
Citi CEO Warns Inflation Will Persist Longer Than Expected
“I don’t think it’s fully appreciated” Jane Fraser, Citi CEO, says she expects a more protracted inflation problem
Current Job Figures Are Both Unreliable and Disappointingly Low
These would be paltry jobs numbers EVEN IF they were still reliable. Which they aren't: https://t.co/Qk4Hma1RfF https://t.co/DKqdfxk1vx
1970s Policy Errors Stemmed From More Than Fed Independence
"Monetary policy mistakes in the 1970s were not due to a lack of Fed independence" Edward Nelson, Senior Adviser Federal Reserve Monetary Affairs @HooverInst
Monetary Policy Nerd Live-Tweets Hoover Conference, Ditches Ballgames
I'm attending @HooverInst's annual monetary conference today. Caution: I'll be tweeting nerdy monetary policy details as someone who thinks monetary policy is far more exciting than a ballgame - I let my dogs chase balls, never quite understood why humans...
Male Labor Participation Hits Lowest Since 1948
Young and old men are leaving the labor force at record rates ... The share of American men working or searching for a job recently hit the lowest level since 1948, aside from the pandemic, Labor Department data shows....
Income Outlook Dims as Gas Prices, Tariffs Concern Consumers
"Real income expectations continued a decline that began in March. About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices and about 30% mentioned tariffs." - UMich consumer sentiment
Record Two-Month Job Gains, Yet Economists Lose Again
Biggest two-month job growth in two years.. as economists now tied w/ the NY Jets for # of Ls in the past two yrs https://t.co/OwQ0cW28TU
Robust Job Market: Claims Rise, ADP Grows, Layoffs Fall
Very solid job data this week overall: Weekly Claims 4 wk MDA +203K, ADP 10th consecutive wk of growth, Challenger Gray layoffs dn 50% YTD, and today's NFP with last month's higher revisions.
Payroll Gains Mask Small Business Strain and Hidden Unemployment
Payrolls surprise to the upside but should be taken with a grain of salt. The household survey has shed jobs since the start of the year. Payrolls are revised and often miss the real-time stress felt by small &...
May Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low Amid Gas Surge
Consumer sentiment falls to fresh record low in May as surging gas prices hit outlook: CNBC
Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low Despite Easing Inflation
JUST IN: Even though inflation concerns are diminishing, American Consumers are at an all-time low in assurance.
US Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low Amid Strong Economic Data
US consumer confidence from the University of Michigan extended to a fresh record low. The 48.2 reading is down from 49.5 and current conditions component added the biggest impact. We are sporting a serious contrast in confidence and traditional economic data......
Price Worries Rise for Everyone, Less for the Rich
"Concerns Over High Prices Climbing for All but Remain Far More Moderate for Wealthy Consumers" - UMich consumer sentiment survey https://t.co/U26k1ps8DR
Strong Jobs Market Lets Fed Target Iran‑driven Inflation, Delaying Cuts
A stable labor market has given the Fed more flexibility to focus on mounting inflation risks stemming from the war in Iran, which have weakened the case among officials for rate cuts https://t.co/k8VoRWUSjB @nytimes
Kevin Warsh Struggles to Push Rate Cuts At
It’s getting harder for Kevin Warsh to come into the Fed and push for rate cuts, if he even still wants them…
April Workweek Rises; Private Payrolls up 4% YTD
From the April payroll report: INCOMES: The average workweek ticked up in April after falling in March. The index of aggregate weekly payrolls for private-sector workers (which combines hiring, wages, and hours) was +4% for the year. https://t.co/brQvF8k1Xw
AI Investment Surge Fuels US Trade Deficit Despite Tariffs
Despite record tariff levels, the US trade deficit is widening in large part because of the boom in AI-related investment. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/e7hFtYSr2M
April Jobs Data Frees Fed to Focus on Inflation
The April jobs report allows the Fed to sweat over inflation (as opposed to inflation *and* jobs) https://t.co/6iYFTTwKfI
Healthcare and Education Jobs Surge as Finance Declines
If you look under the hood of the US labor market, you find a lot of healthcare and education jobs being created. There are outright job losses in the financial and information industries. A chart of jobs in the education...
Business Adds 115K Jobs, Unemployment Steady at 4.3%
Biz shrugs off #Iran War, higher gas prices, creates 115K jobs. Unemployment unchanged at 4.3%. Numbers are from mid-April, w/employers still evaluating what w/going on. #realestate #CRE #interestrates #Trump #DOL #BLS #AI https://t.co/WERxgWvnVU
AI Hasn't Sparked Job Crisis; Unemployment at Historic Lows
Everyone is waiting for AI to take all the jobs but it's not happening yet The unemployment rate was higher than the current level (4.3%) from March 1970 to March 1998 Prime age labor force participation ratio is essentially at the all-time...
Employment Stability Could Boost Record‑Low U‑M Confidence Index
Let's see if the stability in employment trends helps lift the UofM confidence survey off its record low when it updates later...
US Jobs Surge, Defying Slowdown; Fed Rate Hopes Rise
US NFPs beat expectations and pushes back against economic slowdown concerns. April net jobs +115K vs +62K expected and +185K previously. Jobless rate holds at 4.3% That will further boost Fed expectations but wont dissuade the President from calls of cuts to...
April Unemployment Hits 4.3%, Jobs Surpass Expectations
US Unemployment Rate remained at 4.3% in April, the lowest level since last August & well below the historical average of 5.7%. 115k jobs were added vs. 63k expected. February/March were revised down⬇️16k. YoY wage growth: +3.6%. Overall: strong report,...
April Adds 115k Jobs, Unemployment Still Rises
April's jobs report not at all consistent with the idea that breakeven job growth has plummeted to around zero. We got 115,000 new payroll jobs, and the unemployment rate went UP, from 4.26% to 4.34%.
Inflation Outpaces Wage Growth, Squeezing US Workers
Inflation is wiping out wage gains. This is the big Achilles Heel in the US economy. April wage growth: 3.6% April inflation expected to be ~4% Wages are being eaten up by inflation due to the war in Iran. This is a big...