1981 US Rates Hit 16%, Outpacing Global Peers
Trump tells CNBC that the US had interest rates much lower than other countries when he was younger. The US had interest rates as high as 16% in 1981 -- far higher than major trade partners like West Germany and Japan -- in order to tame inflation.
Trump Backs Rate Hikes yet Demands World’s Lowest Rates
Kernen: Would you ever be OK with the Fed raising rates if inflation becomes a problem? Trump: “I think Kevin’s great…. I’ve been in favor of interest rate rises to fight inflation” but “we should have the lowest interest rate in...
Trump Says He'd Be Disappointed if Rates Aren't Cut
President Trump asked on CNBC if he would be disappointed if Warsh didn’t cut rates right away because of the Iran war or other factors: “I would”
Warsh Confirmation: Will He Follow Trump’s Lead?
Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh will face many questions in his confirmation hearing today, but for senators, Wall Street and the White House, there’s only one that really matters: How much will he defer to President Trump? w/ @samjsutton & @Jasper_Goodman https://t.co/BuFORAIH0T
Kevin Warsh Pushes Decade-Long Fed Chair Bid
JUST IN: Kevin Warsh advances his 10-year pursuit of the Federal Reserve's top position with an appearance at the Senate Banking Committee hearing.
New Fed Chairs Not Always Tested by Immediate Crises
“There's always been a perception that new Fed Chairs are swiftly tested by significant events shortly after taking office; but the historical evidence paints a mixed picture on that.” - DB’s Reid https://t.co/pwAXXf6spF
Warsh's Confirmation Will Be Measured by Powell Standard
My take: A successful central banker, the adage goes, moves interest rates the right way at the right time and looks like he knows what he is doing. If Kevin Warsh is confirmed, he will be judged by...
Wall Street, FOMC Scrutinize Warsh Amid Trump Rate‑Cut Pressure
The toughest audiences at Warsh's confirmation hearing won't be in the room. Wall Street and the FOMC are watching how he'll manage Trump's pressure to cut interest rates. The president is watching for signs he'll deliver on expectations he set...
Youth Unemployment Rises to 16.9% as School Year Ends
SCMP: "The jobless rate for the 16-to-24 age group, excluding students, edged up to 16.9 per cent in March from 16.1 per cent in February, snapping six straight months of decline." The big increase, of course, typically happens in June, when...
Rising Money Supply Fuels Precious Metals Surge and Inflation
The U.S. and global money supply is growing at an alarming rate, driving the precious metals bull market and contributing to persistently high inflation.
Kevin Fails to Propose Any BLS Data Improvements
Kevin has not even given the outline of a suggestion for improving BLS data. We know Trump appointees aren’t too sharp, but can’t he at least produce something?
Warsh Confirmation Hearing Highlights Unusual Fed Chair Process
There's nothing normal about this season of Fed Chair Apprentice, and it is far from over ... My preview of Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing. https://t.co/S3gLBjAF7V
Core PCE Inflation Projected at 2.2% by 2026
GS We Expect Core PCE Inflation Net of Tariff Effects to Fall to 2.2% by the End of 2026 https://t.co/ckLILK225L
Mortgage Rates Drop 0.57% YoY, Spread Widens
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.30% Same day last year: 6.87% --------------- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.26 Spread today: 204 bps
College Grads 20‑24 Unemployment Falls To
JUST IN: Unemployment for 20–24 college grads falls to 5.3%, down from 8.9% last fall
AI Firms Now Equal 0.1% of US GDP Each
New post w/ random thoughts on AI (thread) I will probably get a # wrong, but here we go :) 1/12 OpenAI & Anthropic now at 0.1% of US GDP *each* In a year, AI revenue likely to be 1-2% of US GDP What...
Warsh Defends Fed Independence, Calls Inflation a Choice
Warsh is set to tell lawmakers on Tuesday that the Fed's independence in setting rates is "essential" but that policy decisions related to bank regulation and "public monies" should not be given the same deference. He will also argue that...
Warsh: Fed Independence Rests with Itself, Inflation Its Duty
Kevin Warsh is set to tell the Senate at his hearing Tuesday that "Fed independence is largely up to the Fed" and that inflation is the Fed's responsibility "without excuse or equivocation" https://t.co/tzi2zEeXj8
U.S. Experiencing Hidden Surge in Manufacturing Output
America Is in the Middle of a Stealth Manufacturing Boom, as shown in this visual from the WSJ. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/RLtkQKVSdm
Fed Stuck Between Rate Hike and Cut Amid Global Strain
Debate within the Fed about whether its next move is up or down intensifying. Fed is in an uncomfortabke holding pattern on rates. Its inflation-fighting credibiity is eroding. War distributions creating COVID like supply chain problems - emerging Asia hit...
Warsh Vows Strict Rate Independence, Reaffirms Price‑Stability Mandate
Warsh commits to being strictly independent on rates Also Warsh: price stability Fed mandate without excuse
Real GDP Still Near 3% Amid Policy Risks
Jake Oubina (Piper Economics)returns to discuss the macro outlook. Despite geopolitics, oil, and sentiment shifts, he sticks with ~3% real GDP. We hit tariffs, immigration, and policy risks—and why the backdrop may be more resilient than consensus. https://t.co/e9bJuqjgRy
Warsh Hearing Could Shift USTs Amid Iran War
Iran war continues to dominate price action in USTs but Warsh's confirmation hearing tomorrow will likely interrupt the current narrative for a spell especially if he sticks to his recent rate dovishness and balance sheet hawkishness.
Warsh's AI‑Productivity Pitch Meets Fed Colleagues' Resistance
Kevin Warsh rode an AI-productivity argument to Trump's Fed chair nomination. He says the boom will hold down prices and let the Fed cut rates. The pitch has run into a public wall of opposition from his future colleagues before...
Trump Admin Starts Returning $166 B in Revoked Tariffs
Today the Trump administration finally begins returning more than $166 billion (plus interest) collected from the tariffs the President imposed starting last year. The Supreme Court struck down those tariffs two months ago. by @TonyRomm & @AnaSwanson https://t.co/wpfqjsFTU5
LMEs Fall as Fed Rate Hikes Reverse Trend
"As the Fed began raising rates in 2022, LMEs increased as companies faced higher borrowing costs ... That trend is now reversing. Over the past nine months, LMEs have declined." -Apollo Slok
Payroll Tax Cut Needed to Align Growth with Productivity
1/6 Good Steven Barnett piece. He points out that "targeting growth rates inconsistent with productivity trends leads to distortive policies", and argues instead for a "dramatic, permanent payroll tax cut" to boost consumption. https://t.co/M3fq4ltnmI
Check the Economic Calendar Before Every Trade
If you’re trading without knowing what news is being released, you’re setting yourself up to get caught in volatility. Premarket prep starts with the economic calendar. GDP, CPI, jobless claims… these events move gold and Nasdaq fast. News can break...
Sil
What’s the best US macro call that Silicon Valley elites have made over the past 10-15 years? Employment, inflation, housing, GDP growth, take your pick.
Labor Market Narrative Misleading; Data Stale Since September
It IS a remarkable collapse and strengthening of the labor market narrative… unfortunately it’s likely untrue. September is the last date updated for the QCEW revisions. https://t.co/7r6efCCpeo
Upcoming Week: Retail Sales, PMIs, and Sentiment Data
Nothing tomorrow. Retail Sales Tuesday. Quiet Wednesday. Flash April PMIs Thursday. UMich Friday (may not get the official lowest consumer sentiment on record... we'll see) https://t.co/MQfx9DdMUJ
Trump's Tariffs Failed to Generate Significant Revenue
My good friend Chris Wood on the failure of Pres. Trump's tariffs to produce a massive increase in government revenue: "Evidence of fiscal improvement as a result of the surge in tariff revenues over the past year remains minimal." TRUMP = FALSE...
Iran War Fuels Persistent US Inflation Ahead of Midterms
A warning from the Financial Time (which has economic, political and social implications): "war in Iran has unleashed a torrent of inflation in the US that economists warn will linger long after the conflict ends, squeezing Americans ahead of November’s midterm...
Tillis Stands Firm on Fed Blockade, No Bluff
Tillis’s colleagues don’t see him backing down on his Fed blockade and aren’t trying to stop him “If you’re asking me if I think that Tillis is bluffing, the short answer is no. Long answer is hell no,” said Sen. John...
Policy Shifts Set to Accelerate Growth by 2026
MS: We see Fed and fiscal policy, deregulation and fading tariff headwinds all contributing to a growth acceleration in 2026 https://t.co/jEapo33q0x
Youth Unemployment Drops Sharply in Past Six Months
A lot of people, myself included, have written about youth unemployment over the past year, so it’s worth pointing out that age 20-24 unemployment has plunged over the last 6 months: https://t.co/OfHD2ZBOvW
2026 US Unemployment Beats 1990 Levels, Factories Safe
The US Unemployment rate in 2026 is lower than it was in 1990. Turns out factory workers had nothing to worry about... https://t.co/c2CeWYLrYK
Fed's $7.6B Injection Boosts Bitcoin Outlook
🚨UPDATE The Fed will inject $7,587,000,000 into the economy next week. Bullish for Bitcoin and crypto. 🚀 https://t.co/AopEj7lZuL
U.S. Debt Set to Spike to 142% of GDP
THE U.S. NEEDS A DEBT BRAKE. The IMF estimates that the United States’ public debt will surge from 124% of GDP in 2025 to 142% by 2031. USA = ECONOMIC STORM CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON. https://t.co/ZB6XlfUvlR
US Spends $65 Bn Annually on Overseas Bases
According to the Overseas Base Alignment and Closure Coalition, it costs the US $65bn/yr to build and maintain its overseas military bases. US DEFENSE SPENDING = MASSIVE BURDEN ON US TAXPAYERS. https://t.co/YnxMmddUOc
Manufacturing Rebound Driven by Imports, Not Tariffs
There's a stealth manufacturing recovery underway, evident in output, not jobs. Don't credit tariffs; the strongest growth is in sectors with little tariff protection, and strong imports: AI-related computers, electronics, etc; and aerospace. https://t.co/jqdZIRreAO
Markets Await Warsh Hearing, Data, Hormuz Wild Card
This week brings Warsh's confirmation hearing, retail sales, flash PMIs, and consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains the wild card for markets. 🟢 Open https://t.co/mLRfGzP6hG
Tariffs Fully Passed to Consumers, Labor Gains Negligible
Another Fed paper finds Americans paid almost all Trump's 2025 tariffs ("pass-through of realized tariffs into import prices was close to one hundred percent"), AND that local labor market effects were "economically negligible." All pain, no gain. https://t.co/FIgzz7XDAC https://t.co/SeRAnQAdLP
Stock and Housing Gains Fuel Consumer Spending Despite Crises
Why are consumers still spending money despite higher prices, tariffs, energy price spikes, war, etc? You cannot overstate how much wealth has been created in the stock and housing markets in the 2020s Taking stock of consumer balance sheets: https://t.co/2z6xHf95hK https://t.co/6idg1ItOV2
BoA Survey Shows Goods Economy Strength at Four-Year High
BoA’s shipper survey shows increasing strength in the goods economy, with the highest reading in 4 years. This provides affirmation that the recent capacity tightness is not just less trucks, but a more complete recovery, including demand.
Fed Governor Warns Energy Shock Delays Rate Cuts
'One Transitory Shock After Another' Fed governor Chris Waller lays out two scenarios: The strait reopens "leaving me cautious about rate cuts now and more inclined toward cuts to support the labor market later this year." Or it doesn't and the Fed...
War on Iran Pushes US Gas Prices Above $4 per Gallon
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, prices at the pump have JUMPED by $1.15. The national US average just hit $4.13/gallon. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = CREATING AMERICAN PAIN AT THE PUMP. https://t.co/2D7sRK3hnJ
US March Industrial Production Slumps, Tariff Boost Still Elusive
"US Industrial Production Fell in March in Broad Decline" https://t.co/aq4xd1Vgvn Still waiting for that tariff boom.... https://t.co/LS9R23Crm0
1970s Fed Hikes Sparked Credit Crunch, Causing Stagflation
What a surprise (/s)… the Fed hiking rates in 1970s caused supply contraction and price increases… One funeral at a time…
Rate‑cut Odds Surge to 50% After Recent Events
Just a couple weeks the probability of another FOMC rate cut this year was down to less than 10% With some positive macro and geopolitical events over the past two weeks including the last 48 hours... the probability of another FOMC...