Burry Warns U.S. Markets Facing Unsalvageable Collapse
Michael Burry, an investor known for his book *The Big Short*, warned that the U.S. financial markets and economy are about to collapse. "The problem is too big to be salvaged."
Gasoline Dip Masks Rising Electricity and Natural Gas Costs
Energy Inflation for Americans. Dropping gasoline prices since mid-2022 papered over big price increases in electricity and natural gas. But that’s now over https://t.co/KjuZv4jN7V https://t.co/8HsWsulfsD
2‑Year Treasury Yields Spike to Highest Since August 2025
Yields on the 2-year Treasury note posted their largest daily increase since May 2, 2025 (the day of a surprisingly strong payroll report), and closed at their highest level since Aug. 21, 2025, the day before Powell signaled a likely...
Record Broad Money Growth Threatens Purchasing Power
⚠️Broad money supply in developed countries is surging: Broad money across advanced economies rose to a record $74.1 trillion in 2025. This comes after a massive +25% surge during 2020–2022 before growth eased back to trend. It has risen over $50 trillion since...
Core Auto Inflation Hits Fastest Rate in 12 Years
The peak for the PCE's core goods x-autos series was 5.3% YoY in 2022. We're not there , but it will jump from 2.3% in Jan26 to 2.9% in Feb26 tks to a 1.0% MoM surge. Outside of covid, it's...
January Trade Data Masks Deeper Economic Trends
I can see why the Trump administration likes the January trade data. Imports didn't move much v December and exports bounced back from a December dip. But there is a bit more going on under the hood 1/ many...
Fed May Cut Rates If Energy Prices Trigger Recession
"Higher inflation could cause the Fed to eventually raise interest rates. But Sahm said the Fed will also consider what could happen if energy costs rise so high that the economy slows down. “That’s a scenario in which the Fed would...
US Energy Spending Share Drops Among Consumers
The share of energy-related consumer spending has declined in the US. @soberlook WFC @augurinfinity https://t.co/UrUf2APJn5 https://t.co/4k9Hw8tcSW
Powell Faces Rate‑cut Pressure as Oil Doubles
Live look at Powell getting the demands to cut rates while oil just spiked 100% https://t.co/qDIcLm6oIA
US Recession Odds Surge to 32%, Highest in 3 Months
US recession chance jumps to 32%.. highest in more than 3 months (and consider there's less time for it to happen in this market) @kalshi https://t.co/rx3rkIwTm6 https://t.co/jCSx2ZLeuK
Dollar Index Hits Three‑month High as Rate‑cut Bets Shrink
The $DXY Dollar Index has advanced to close at a three-month high while also clearing some channel and Fib resistance on the close. Notably, the market's FOMC rate expectations for 2026 have also extended their shift, now only pricing in...
Key Forces Shaping Global Economy Ahead of March FOMC
A few moments from my recent interview with Asharq Business اقتصاد الشرق 🎙️ We discussed some of the key topics shaping today’s global economic landscape — inflation, oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and the upcoming FOMC meeting on March 18th. Grateful for the...
Core CPI‑PCE Spread Set to Hit -65bps, Third Largest
Tmrw, we'll see the YoY core CPI vs YoY core PCE spread widen to around -65bps, which would be the 3rd largest in four decades. Shelter cooling helped to narrow the spread over the last 18m to about +20bps in...
Rate‑Hike Pricing Hits S&P, Small‑Caps
As the front part of the curve moves closer toward pricing in Fed rate hikes, SPX is down just 1.2%... and the Russell 2000 isn't getting killed $SPY $IWM https://t.co/ITSA3q3sjN
Fed Trapped: Oil, Jobs, and Yield Curve Crisis
The Fed can't cut because of oil. Can't hike because of jobs. Can't do nothing because the curve is screaming. Monetary policy was built for one crisis at a time. This is three.
President Urges Rare Intermeeting Rate Cut Before Scheduled Decision
The president expresses a desire for a rare intermeeting rate cut. The last one occurred on March 15, 2020, as the Covid shock overwhelmed financial markets. The Fed's next scheduled policy decision announcement—widely expected to be no change in rates—is in...
Hidden Labor Weakness: Payrolls Down, Jobs Slashed
February payrolls negative. 330K federal jobs cut since October. Unemployment holding at 4.4%. The labor market is weakening under the surface. The headline number is the last to know.
Iran War Inflation Drives Terminal Rate to 3.37%
Iran war inflation continues to push up the terminal rate, now 3.37. This had been trading around 3% a month ago. No surprise UST front end getting shellacked with 2s 3.74 and 5s 3.86 https://t.co/8FiC830XW4
Long‑term Unemployment Spikes Early, Now Cooling, No Recession Yet
Long-duration unemployment is one of the most cyclical and recession-sensitive labor indicators. Every recession produces a sharp surge in long-term unemployment: * 1954 recession: ~+550% spike * 1974–75 recession: ~+300% * 1982 recession: ~+100%+ * 2008–09 recession: ~+150% * 2020 COVID recession: ~+330% Historically, YoY long-term unemployment...
Fed Cuts Unlikely as Inflation Stays Above Target
At the start of the year, the market was pricing in 2 Fed rate cuts. Today: just one cut, and not until the September meeting. The reality is inflation never moved down to the Fed's 2% target and is now moving higher....
Global Doubt Threatens US Debt Sustainability
New NYT Opinion from me: The debt math of the United States only works if the rest of the world believes in it… but they’re starting not to. What does that mean for our future (and for all this debt)?...
US Inflation Far Exceeds 2% Myth; Fed Must Hold Rates
Consumer Prices in the US rose 4.4% per year over the last 5 years and over 24% in total. 2% inflation is a myth. The Fed should not be cutting rates at all this year. https://t.co/yilrof4KhM
Housing Starts Beat Forecast, Yet Momentum Questioned
Housing starts surprised to the upside in the latest report, rising to a 1.487 million SAAR and coming in above consensus expectations. On the surface, the headline suggests renewed momentum in residential construction. However... https://t.co/1r862BDOdv
Initial Jobless Claims Hold Steady at 213,000
"In the week ending March 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 213,000 to 214,000."
10% Oil Spike Adds 0.
“Our rules of thumb are that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices boosts headline and core PCE inflation by 0.2pp and 0.04pp, respectively, while lowering GDP growth by around 0.1pp. The growth impact from a temporary price increase that...
US Food Inflation Accelerates Amid Mixed Category Trends
Food Inflation in America. Not good. Looking at major categories of foods. Some continued to spike (beef, coffee), others continued to plunge (eggs), others changed less. Overall food inflation accelerated on top of already very high prices https://t.co/taRrQJWe4I https://t.co/IdfYxkT1G2
Inflation Unmoored in Late
This is the popular narrative but it's not correct. Inflation de-anchored in the late 1960s under pressure from Great Society & Vietnam spending and Martin acquiescing to LBJ's pressure. Inflation was kept artificially low in the early 1970s by wage...
US Job Data Overstated, Recent Revisions Cut 94k Jobs
⚠️US employment numbers have been grossly OVERSTATED: The US job market has seen revisions in ALL months of 2025 and 11 months of 2024. Over the last 3 months, US employment has been revised DOWNWARD by -94,000 jobs.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/february-us-jobs-report-was-a-disaster
Money Supply Drives Inflation, Though Lags Vary
My take on the MONEY SUPPLY: "The money supply is always the cause of inflation. There are long and variable lags between changes in the money supply and changes in inflation." THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. My latest with @JanetOnTheMoney...
Presidents' Endless Pledge: Balancing the Budget, Year After Year
“The Federal Government cannot continue to spend more money than it takes in.” - Jimmy Carter (1978) “For decades we have piled deficit upon deficit, mortgaging our future and our children's future.” - Ronald Reagan (1981) “We must bring the Federal budget...
Cleveland Fed Sees 2.87% CPI, 60th Month Above Target
The Cleveland Fed is now forecasting a 2.87% CPI inflation rate for March, up from 2.4% in February. That will be the 60th consecutive month (5 straight years) with inflation above the Fed's 2% target. There's no way Powell cuts...
Bond Market Predicts Near‑Zero Chance of Fed Cut
Bond Market: less than 1% probability of a Fed rate cut next week. Lloyd Christmas: so you're telling me there's a chance? https://t.co/29QHtCRSqe
Expect 4.8
IF-THEN I am growing in confidence we’re gonna hit 4.8% in the US 10 year yield this year - with potential overshoot of crude to $300 and 10Y to 5.8% in a real panic (outlier event). That's too scary to digest/trade but...
US Federal Deficit Hits $1 Trillion in First Five Months
In the first 5 months of the 2026 Fiscal Year the US Federal Government took in $2.1 trillion and spent $3.1 trillion. Don’t try this at home. https://t.co/nGKPLUJ4vh
Core PCE May Hit 3.4% YoY by Q2
BNP PARIBAS: “.. We think core #PCE could climb to 3.4% y/y by Q2, a striking implication of the hot PCE-relevant components that complicates the Fed’s policy path. We see upside risk to this estimate if the oil-price shock persists.”...
CPI Climbs on Food, Energy; OER Masks True Inflation
CPI Inflation Rose on Food & Energy Prices, even before Gasoline Price Spike. YoY still Pushed Down by Bad-Joke OER. The Bad-Joke of Owners Equivalent of Rent (OER) explained https://t.co/Drnu0dnRE2 https://t.co/nyv8tW3qx5
Rising Yields Signal Dollar Surge, Growth De‑Risking Continues
Bonds fall on growth fears and rise on recession fears - as a rule of thumb. But that’s under monetary dominance, not fiscal dominance. The new rulebook will look very much like February into the April tariff terror event where dollar and bonds...
Market Stays Resilient Despite Decade‑Long S&P Drawdowns
S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns this decade: 2020 -33.9% 2021 -5.2% 2022 -25.4% 2023 -10.3% 2024 -8.5% 2025 -18.9% 2026 -3.4% (so far) Why isn't the market falling more? Why are investors ignoring the headlines? Are we due for a correction? https://t.co/4VHwh9ODKB https://t.co/jZPvMOVHiI
U.S. Wireless Prices Halt Decline, Remain Flat
It looks like prices for U.S. wireless service have stopped falling in recent weeks, according to the Consumer Price Index. Prices fell 3.3% in December, 0.3% in January and 0.0% in February. https://t.co/jLkjJC61OX
Full Employment Requires Taming Inflation, Not Rate Cuts
My full write up on inflation. Important to remember that we can not sustain or obtain full employment unless inflation is detailed. For those arguing the #FOMC should cut to shore up employment and ease inequality. Cuts in late 2024...
Core Inflation Remains Steady Over Past Three Years
Here's monthly seasonally adjusted core. It's been pretty stable for the last three years (perhaps not at the level you'd prefer.) https://t.co/1r4VLXWf1S
Fed Rate Path Repriced: Terminal Rate 3
Rather dramatic repricing of the Fed rate path vs 3 weeks ago before the Iran war. Cut cycle terminal rate now 3.28 with odds increasing that cut cycle is already over https://t.co/VYJRS9oWdI
Core PCE Outpaces CPI Due to Weighting Differences
We still need Feb PPI , but Feb core PCE looks much stronger than Feb core CPI. On Friday, Jan core PCE will also be stronger than Jan core CPI. This is not shelter. Instead, it reflects the differences in...
CPI Meets Forecasts, Rate‑Cut Outlook Hits Low
Both US headline and core #CPI for February were both in-line with expectations and previous: 2.4% and 2.5% respectively. Nevertheless, expectations for FOMC rate cuts through this year are the lowest since May 2nd (-30bps). That won't make Trump happy... https://t.co/9kJhHgDilS
CPI Understates Inflation; Core Services Surge, Fed Faces More Pressure
More to come but things to keep in mind… CPI headline figures of 2.4% are artificially suppressed by the lapse in data collection during the six week government shutdown. Under the hood, there is a disturbing acceleration in core service sector...
Official Inflation Rates Hide Everyday Price Surge
Everything is high as hell. Inflation is screaming “make it enough”.. The CPI report — “it’s not that high” Reality — lady goes into CVS and buys: shampoo and conditioner, six pack of toilet paper, and a birthday card. 4...
Restaurant Prices Rise Faster Than Overall Inflation
Restaurant menu price inflation continues to run hotter than overall inflation. Today's reading shows FAFH CPI up 3.9% (!), with limited service prices up 3.2% and full service up 4.6%. The affordability crisis continues. https://t.co/c9SLvliOyk
Inflation Pops Up Unexpectedly Like Whack‑a‑Mole
Whack-a-mole inflation wasn't on my bingo card today, but it is what we are seeing.
Goods Inflation 3% Above 30‑Year Average, Tariffs & AI Bottlenecks Driving Surge
Before adding in geopolitical inflation risk, goods inflation outside food and energy is already running about 3% faster than what prevailed for most of the last 3 decades Much of this is tariffs, but bottlenecks from the AI boom are also...
Options‑implied Fed Hike Odds Surge to 23%
You get a different result from the CME tool (derived from a simple probability-weighted average) if you use options prices in the Atlanta Fed's tracker As of Friday, options prices implied a rate hike had risen to around 23%, from 8%...