Fed Rate Call Sets Direction for Stocks and Dollar
My latest on tomorrow FED rate decision and what to expect for stocks and the US dollar
Lower‑income ZIP Codes Outpace Wealthier Areas in Spending Growth
"We can also crudely proxy for consumer spending by income quartile, based on consumer MCC transactions and average income in the ZIP code of the spender...at least on Stripe, lower-income ZIP codes have seen more robust spending growth than the...
Post‑Fed, Iran War’s Hidden Employment and Income Risks Emerge
When the dust settles after tomorrow's Fed meeting, the potential economic costs of the war in Iran are likely to feel more real. Headlines will be hawkish with a greater emphasis on inflation, but downside risks to employment and disposable...
Gas Prices Surge While Food Inflation Still Lags
An update on a critical chart: Gasoline prices continue to climb, but attention should now shift to food prices, which have yet to follow. Expect policymakers to call it transitory again, even as resource prices — despite volatility — remain elevated by...
Market Predicts Near‑Certain No Rate Cut at FOMC
FOMC interest rate decision will happen within 24 hours. The market expects a 99.1% odds of no rate cuts. https://t.co/mwK46vPADA
Tomorrow's FOMC Meeting: Most Critical Decision Yet
Tomorrow will be the most imporant FOMC meeting of our lives Until the next one
Only Two of Three Oil, Fed, Inflation Scenarios Can Occur
The market is pricing in three things simultaneously: • Oil stays above $100 • Fed cuts rates • Inflation falls to 2% You can have two. Not all three. If oil wins → stagflation. If Fed capitulates → dollar collapses. If demand craters → recession. Every...
Labor Market Contracts Despite Positive Three‑month Average
Feb payrolls: -92K. Three-month average: +6K/month. The labor market isn't softening. It's contracting. And the Fed can't cut because oil won't let them. $SPY $TLT https://t.co/RVUtPtl388
Pending Home Sales Beat Forecast, Yet Rates Rise Amid Conflict
Pending home sales recorded an unexpected beat in February, rising 1.8% month-over-month versus a forecast of -1%. However, sales were down 0.8% year-over-year and the outlook isn't great given mortgage rates hit those 3.5-year lows in February. They are now markedly higher...
Pending Home Sales Rise, Yet Mortgage Rates Surge Past 6.3%
Pending Home Sales Ticked Up from Record Low. But Now Mortgage Rates Spiked Back over 6.3%. Home sales in February, as feeble as they were, benefitted from the lowest mortgage rates in years. Those rates are now gone https://t.co/2mll3eAbGK https://t.co/lVfYXLQXRz
Markets Ignore FOMC; Dot Plot and Language Drive Moves
The FOMC meets this week but no one's paying attention. Markets are focused on geopolitics, not rate decisions. Here's what actually matters: the dot plot, the statement language, and the three scenarios that could move markets.
Fed Meeting’s Dot Plot Will Steer Markets This Summer
The Fed starts its most consequential meeting of the year today. Oil is above $100. The S&P 500 clings to its 200-day moving average. Wednesday's dot plot will reveal whether any rate cuts survive in 2026. The answer could set...
New Tax Credit Pushes Buyers Toward American‑Made Cars
A new tax deduction lets buyers claim up to $10,000 a year on interest paid for new, American-made cars purchased between 2025 and 2028. To qualify, the vehicle must be assembled in the U.S., verified by its VIN, and bought...
New Lens on Marginal Consumer Spending Hits Spot‑On
👇This is the way (to look at marginal consumer spending) spot on, again @EPBResearch !
Fed's Inflation View to Steer Near‑term Rate Path
Despite the recent steepening of the back-end, hard to fade and set up for next week's auctions with FOMC tomorrow. Fed clarification on how they view the recent crude inflation will have a strong impact on the...
Traders Bet Fed Dovish; Stocks Rise, Dollar Falls
🚨 TRADERS JUST TIPPED THEIR HAND BEFORE FED The market is already telling us what to expect from the Fed - and smart traders are paying attention. Stocks are rallying and the dollar is pulling back ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. That's...
Banks Hoard Liquidity yet Shun Discount Window in Crises
The growing calls for Discount Window reform are being driven, in part, by a paradox in the post-GFC liquidity framework: banks are encouraged to hoard liquidity in normal times but hesitate to use it during stress. Details in my latest...
Full Rate Cut Postponed Until March 2027.
"While markets previously anticipated a cut as early as this July and two more by next spring, the current trajectory has moved aggressively, with a full cut now not priced in until March 2027." -S&P Global Vörös
Fed Hikes Driven by Macro Policy, Not Oil Spikes
In the two oil shocks of the 70's the Fed tightened due to the broad inflationary impact of leaving the gold standard and Bretton woods. Oil was a symptom not a cause of inflation In 90 the Fed paused cuts...
Fed Shouldn't React to Oil Supply Shocks
Should the Fed hike due to a supply shock in oil? No. Should the Fed cut due to oil supply shock causing weaker real growth. Also no. Get a grip pundits.
US Diesel Prices Surge Past $5, Fueling Freight Inflation
CHART OF THE DAY: US retail average diesel prices have topped the $5-per-gallon barrier for the 2nd time ever. That’s freight inflation — and another big hit to the country’s farming economy (and it has received many hit since...
Trade FOMC: Align Timing, Levels, and Liquidity
FOMC is the biggest event this week. Interest rate decisions and Fed commentary can shift market direction, volatility, and momentum across Nasdaq and gold. Price often reacts aggressively around these releases, especially near key supply and demand levels. If you’re trading this week,...
Fed Faces Tension Over Near‑Term Rate Cut Projections
The Fed might prefer to say nothing this week. But the projections force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed presidents told me they'd want to avoid projecting near-term cuts in the current situation. Whether sitting officials do...
Rising Income, Oil, Deficits Make Rate Cuts Tough
Disposable personal income is rising. Oil price is rising. Budget deficits are rising. Going to be very hard to cut rates
War‑driven Inflation Fuels Liquidity‑to‑solvency Crises
For those bullish wars, don't forget: WARS ARE INFLATIONARY which can accelerate economic deterioration that is already in motion. Now pit INFLATION against this backdrop: liquidity versus solvency.👇 Liquidity crisis can quickly turn to solvency crisis. Fed can step in during liquidity episodes, Fed...
Fed's Treasury Holdings Surge, Echoing Past Funding Crises
Preparation for liquidity crisis to minimize repo/money market volatility that are threatening credit spreads due to oil spike and growth contraction from Trump trapping US-Israel War on Iran. #HYOAS “The Fed now holds about $358B in Treasury bills. That’s higher than the...
Oil Spike Fuels Inflation, Keeps Fed From Cutting
The US-Iran conflict pushed oil past $100 a barrel. This is going to keep inflation elevated. Elevated inflation stops the Fed from cutting, which isn’t good for risk assets. I don’t see a super cycle this year only lower lows as stated many...
Three S&P 500 Headwinds, One Overlooked Indicator Each
The S&P 500 has 3 headwinds right now. Most investors are only watching one. Here's what all 3 are, and the single indicator for each that tells you if it's getting better or worse 🧵
Fed Expected to Keep Rates Unchanged at Upcoming Meeting
99% probability the Fed holds rates steady at the next FOMC meeting in 2 days https://t.co/McZZLqnIC5
US Growth Slows to Third‑Slowest in 14 Years
Last year, the US economy grew at its third-slowest rate in the last 14 years. https://t.co/RDFeuSRfcT
Fed and FDIC to Vote on Trump-Era Basel Proposal Thursday
ICYMI: The Trump-era Basel bank capital proposal is coming Thursday, and the Fed and FDIC are having open board meetings at the same time to vote on it https://t.co/u34TWtDk8w https://t.co/TlK4sinLwp
Energy Price Surge Threatens to Reverse US Inflation Decline
For most of the past three years, falling energy prices have been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis......
35% Hike Odds in ’26, Certain November Rate Cuts
A 35% chance of a hike in '26 currently. 100% chance of three cuts back in November. Great chart from @sonusvarghese https://t.co/oAFz8G2I7j
U.S. Faces $1 Trillion Deficit Early in FY
The U.S. federal government has collected $2.1T in revenue so far this fiscal year. But spending has already reached $3.1T. That leaves a $1.0T deficit. We aren't even through Q1 yet.
SPY Preps for Inflation Data and Fed Decision
$SPY levels going into the week. On the agenda: - CPI & PPI Inflation Data (Wed) - FOMC / Interest Rate Decision (Wed) - Fed Press Conference (Wed)
Higher Rates, Free Market, Not Fed Cuts, Win
There's going to be a lot of people complaining this week when the Fed doesn't cut rates. Let them. It's the right decision. In fact, interest rates should be much higher than where they are today. The free market should...
Fed Must Erase 12% Excess Inflation Before Rate Cuts
The Fed should not even think about cutting rates again until the 12% additional inflation we've had since January 2020 above the 2% trendline is erased. There's no point in having an inflation target if you're not going to adhere...
Markets Stay Calm on 5-Year Inflation Outlook
Market relatively sanguine about longer term inflation. 5 year, 5 year forward inflation swap showing no angst despite crude elevating front short-term swaps https://t.co/b8Po5HE6EV
Iran Conflict Deepens Fed Rate Split, Fuels Inflation Worries
Fed officials were already before divided the Iran war over what to do about rates. Now the conflict threatens to entrench those positions and make it even harder to reach a consensus "Both sides are going to be able to say...
Warsh Delay Helps Him, Harms Powell Amid Oil Shock
“Interestingly, any delay in Warsh’s confirmation is a gift to Warsh and a curse for Powell as the Fed now faces the challenge of managing yet another supply side shock with a president that views rate cuts as the answer...
Manufacturing Slows, Housing Index Slightly Rises
Economic Calendar for Mon. Mar. 16 8:30am - NY Fed manufacturing index for March: Expected 3.9; Prior 7.1 10:00 - NAHB housing market index for March: Expected 37; Prior 36
Red Vs. Blue States' Income Tax Gap Widening
MyPoV: Numbers don’t lie. Red and Blue States Are Growing Further Apart on Income Tax https://t.co/QjUnqWilgL
Central Banks Pause Rates Amid Oil, Middle East Risks
Central banks worldwide hold rates steady this week as they watch oil prices and Middle East tensions. The Fed's Powell leads his second-to-last FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/d9xKHu64X9
Living Costs Outpace Income Growth by Decades
Median family income in the US increased from $10,000 in 1971 to $106,000 today, only a 10x increase. However, the median cost of homes increased from $25,000 to $445,000, a 17x increase. And the median cost of cars increased from $3,600 to...
Promises of 5% Growth Ignore Looming Debt Reality
January 2025: "Don't worry about the $2 trillion deficit and the rising national debt. We are going to grow our way out of it with 5% Real GDP." Today: "Wait till next year." https://t.co/D1ZtfYxn0r
Government Claims 20% Health Insurance Cost Drop—Absurd
The most absurd number in CPI? According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 20% over the last 5 years... https://t.co/Iw2M0izZim
Goldman Sees 25% US Recession Risk as Oil Hits $100
Goldman just raised US recession probability to 25%. Oxford Economics says $140 oil triggers recession in the eurozone, UK, and Japan. Brent is at $100 and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. https://t.co/7yjIA43hkG
Regional Housing Markets Shape Inflation Perceptions
I’m convinced that a lot of people’s views on inflation right now are driven by whether they live in the Sun Belt (experiencing housing deflation/disinflation) or NY/SF.
Stocks Typically Bottom Five Months Before GDP Rebounds
As recession fears mount, remember that stocks bottom ~5 months before GDP inflects. JPMAM https://t.co/R8swcw5iFp
Why a Fed Rate Cut Now Signals Trouble
My week ahead article: It Would Probably Be a Bad Sign if the Fed Cut Now – Here’s Why https://t.co/iRgDsoYaOg https://t.co/HWPl79e8Ez