Fed Underestimates Pre‑war Inflation, Mislabels Risks
New at THE OVERSHOOT: The Fed is Misreading the Inflation Risks https://t.co/NIh6rJDQhK Inflation was getting worse *before the war* across a broad range of categories. Yet Fed officials are still blaming "one-time things". https://t.co/xbrposAsbQ
January New‑home Sales Plunge to Lowest Since 2022
Temporary Freeze or Deeper Chill? New home sales fell sharply in January to 587K (vs. 722K expected), marking the slowest pace since Oct 2022 and the steepest monthly drop since 2013. https://t.co/W9Fwrwtvjb
Fed's Data Focus: Charles Payne Analyzes Decision-Making
Will the Fed look at the data? — #charlespayne and I break it down https://t.co/qyX222T1qM #powell #dimartinobooth #economy
Polymarket Odds Mirror 2‑year Yield on 2026 Rate Cut
The Polymarket odds of "no rate cut in 2026" continue to generally track the 2-year yield https://t.co/VY0P2eN1XO
VIX Plunge Signals Rising Market Complacency Amid Stress
$VIX: 27.85 on March 13. 21.51 now. A 6+ point collapse in one week while oil trades near $100, the Fed just held, and private credit is cracking. Complacency doesn't announce itself. It just shows up in the $VIX. https://t.co/QOUSwv6YZ0
2‑Year Yield Jump Signals Imminent Fed Rate Hike
The 2 year U.S. Treasury yield has risen 50 basis points in less than three weeks. It now suggests one Fed HIKE may be coming.
Cleveland Fed Predicts 3% CPI, Hikes Outweigh Cuts
The Cleveland Fed is now forecasting a 3% CPI Inflation reading for March, up from 2.4% in February. There is now a higher probability of a Fed rate HIKE (8%) in April than a rate CUT (0%). https://t.co/yoWBJBbDDN
Market Turns Hawkish, Forecasts Only 9bps Cuts in 2024
The market's implied forecasts for Fed rate forecasts through 2026 now only projects -9bps of rate cuts this year. So the market is more hawkish than the Fed's forecast - the market was more dovish than the Fed two weeks...
Fed Shifts to Fewer Rate Cuts, Embraces Higher‑For‑Longer Policy
Fed held at 3.5-3.75%. 7 of 19 members see ZERO cuts in 2026. Dot plot: 1 cut this year, 1 more in 2027. Six months ago the consensus was 3+ cuts. Higher for longer isn't a threat anymore. It's policy. https://t.co/vbJxcKjym9
Card Spending Rises 5% YoY, Gas Spikes 14%
BofA: Total card spending was up 4.9% y/y in the week ending Mar 14 while total card ex gas spending was also up a solid 4.3% y/y ... gas spending +14.4% YoY https://t.co/wW3Jif21Sp
Dollar Surge Fizzles: Limited Follow‑Through After Fed Hold
Limited Follow-Through Dollar Today After Yesterday's Surge: The US dollar rallied strongly during the Federal Reserve’s press conference yesterday as rates jumped in response to what was widely seen as a hawkish hold, especially given Chair Powell’s… https://t.co/L0b4ab2cDv https://t.co/JikD6d1Xxj
US 2‑yr Yield Surges, Inflation Breakevens Spike Post‑War
The US 10yr yield is up about 35 bp since the start of the war and the 2yr yield is up about 43 bp. The 2yr break even is up 57 bp to 3.38% and the 10yr breakeven is...
Fed Caught Between Strong Economy Claims and Market Reality
Powell says the economy is strong and inflation will moderate. The stock market tanked anyway. The Fed may be trapped between geopolitical shocks and economic reality. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/z9r6WCt1RC
Fed Ends Easy Cuts
Takeaways from the March Fed meeting: • The era of 'easy' cuts could be over. Last year's were a recalibration; the next ones have to be earned with better inflation data or downside risks being realized. • The dots weren't as hawkish...
US Debt Hits $39 Trillion; Hard Assets Scarce
US federal debt now officially reached $39 trillion. None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/9uWJASUd8q https://t.co/EjSvdcj9Gj
Wage Growth and Services Inflation Keep Labor Market Tight
I basically agree. There are genuine anxiety closets in the labor market worth monitoring but the tenaciousness of wage growth & core services inflation suggest its state is still one of net heat overall. Modeling from the @KansasCityFed estimates we're...
Powell Plans Longer Tenure Despite Trump’s Anti‑Fed Rhetoric
Donald Trump has spent months talking about how badly he wants Jay Powell out of the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, Powell signaled the administration’s own actions have had the opposite effect: He’s prepared to stay longer than he otherwise would...
Powell Could Remain FOMC Chair Until 2026
Remember my Manifesto? He’s legally elected FOMC Chair through December 31, 2026 regardless of who’s Chair of the Fed Board “Powell would also be eligible as a governor to remain in charge of rate-setting FOMC, potentially extending his influence over monetary...
Fed's Latest Move Hints at Future Policy Amid Iran, Tariffs
Let me be your Fed whisperer. What the Fed decided, what we can infer about it's next steps, how Iran and tariffs factored in, and what it all means for you. https://t.co/3JC756KIAH
Briefing on Q3 2026 CPI Ahead of Midterms
Did he just get a briefing about what CPI is likely to be in 3q26, just ahead of midterms?
Fed Should’ve Cut 25bps as Insurance, Not Wait.
Error indeed lest we forget the avg $360 tax refund boost has been more than offset by higher gas prices? “A 25bp cut wouldn’t have been an inflation surrender. It would have been a recognition that the bigger risk is being...
FOMC's Dovish Pause Masks Hawkish Stagflation Risks
Participants at the FOMC meeting rounded the wagons around Powell at a difficult moment for Fed independence. What looked like a dovish pause on the surface had hawkish undertones. Risks to meeting participants forecasts were to the downside on growth,...
Strong Economy, Weak Job Demand: Fed Should Cut Rates
"Our view is that an economy operating at a strong level, such as it is today, but which isn’t producing nearly enough labor demand should be signal enough to have the Fed cut rates a couple more times this year,...
Powell Warns White House, Asserts Fed’s Crucial Leverage
Fed Chair Jay Powell fired a warning shot today, reminding the White House that he holds some pretty important cards. Yes, it's drama, melodrama and soap opera. But it also really matters. And I admire how Powell has handled himself here....
Supply‑Shock Focus Increases Inflation Anxiety, Drives Hawk Turns
If you think demand played a large roll in the pandemic inflation, you are a lot less worried today. If you think it was mostly supply shocks, well you are more worried about supply shocks being inflationary. This explains some...
FOMC Tweaks Dwarfed by Middle East Turmoil
The FOMC's forecast revisions were tiny compared to the images we're seeing from the Middle East.
Powell's Hawkish Tone Signals No Rate Cuts Yet
That was a hawkish presser. JP discounted the latest NFP print and revisions. Spent time discussing rate hikes even if hypothetical. Highlighted anchored inflation expectation as a prerequisite for further rate cuts.
Powell: No Cuts Now, One in 2026, Not Stagflation
Summary of Fed Chair Powell today: 1) He'll stay as Chair until a new chair is confirmed by Senate 2) He'll stay at Fed until criminal investigation is "truly over" 3) No rate cut today. Only 1 cut likely for 2026 4) No one...
Powell Sees AI as Marginally Inflationary Now
Appreciate that Powell thinks that AI is inflationary on the margin as of now (because of capex etc)
Powell Resists Trump, Keeps Rates Amid Oil Crisis
Fed powell standing up to trump by refusing to cut rates during this oil crises.
Powell Refuses to Call Tariff Inflation Impact Certain
Powell says he definitely would not use the word "certain" to describe his view on the onetimeness of the inflationary effect of tariffs
Fed Could Take Cues From RBA’s Recent Pivot
Would be neat if someone asks about whether the Fed has anything to learn from the RBA's recent pivot
One‑off Shocks Keep Inflation Above 2% Target
The problem with dismissing all the shocks as "one-time things" is that they all have the same directional impact on inflation and underlying inflation was already running around 3%, which means that in practice you will never hit a 2%...
Powell's Comments Lower Odds of His Gubernatorial Exit
Odds of Powell leaving as governor just took a meaningful leg down after his comments: https://t.co/BAkNISx8fo
Wage Growth Slows, Services Inflation Remains Stubborn
A propos of Powell's comments just now: non-housing services inflation versus ECI wage growth. You can see a bit of a wedge opening up, with nominal wage growth cooling while services inflation stays tenacious. https://t.co/WmtcQV5Cxr
Powell’s Tepid Stance on Energy Prices Delays Rate Cuts
the significant part is Powell's relatively lukewarm support for looking through energy prices. 5 years of missing their target is clearly bothering them. They are gonna need to see genuine economic weakness to cut again
Powell Vows to Remain Fed Chair if Warsh Unconfirmed
Fed Chair Powell confirms he would stay on as Fed chair pro tem if Kevin Warsh isn't confirmed by the time Powell's term as chair ends. Also adds: "I have no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is...
Powell Stumped by Rising Services Inflation Amid Soft Job Market
Powell did not have a good answer to the question of why non-housing services inflation has been moving the wrong way if the job market is actually "not inflationary"
Powell Admits Uncertainty on Oil Shock’s Economic Impact
Fed Chair Powell says we "just don't know" what impact of oil shock will be. "The standard learning is that you look through energy shocks, but that’s always been dependent on inflation expectations remaining WELL ANCHORED." "The US economy is doing pretty...
Powell: Rates at Borderline Restrictive, Near Neutral
Powell: "You can characterize the rate as in the high end of neutral of you can characterize it as mildly restrictive, even modestly restrictive. It is somewhere around the borderline of restrictive and not."
Mortgage Rates Dip, Spread Hits 206 Bps
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.31% Same day last year: 6.78% 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.25% Spread today: 206 bps
Powell Shifts From Labor Market Weakness to Downside Risk
Interesting catch where Powell corrects himself from saying "weakness in the labor market" (objectively wrong) to "downside risk in the labor market" (maybe wrong but at least defensible)
Fed Holds Rates, Warns No Cut Without Inflation Progress
Fed Holds Rates, now with Only 1 Dissenter, Sees Accelerating Inflation & GDP Growth. Dot Plot projections still point at 1 rate cut in 2026. Powell: “If we don’t see that progress [on inflation], then you won’t see that rate cut.” https://t.co/d1jJR0aFr2
Fed Chief Warns Inflation Expectations Could Unanchor Amid Shocks
Powell reiterates that the Fed "worries a lot" about inflation expectations becoming unanchored due to the multiple shocks over the last 5 years.
Powell Says Now Is Time to Abandon SEP
Powell embraces the SEP to observe that there was "a meaningful amount of movement" toward fewer cuts and then later leaves the SEP by the side of the road. If there was ever going to be a time to skip...
Fed Holds Steady, Awaits Middle East Clarity
The Fed's stance appears to have changed very little. A simple interpretation: The Fed wants to wait and see what's happening in the Middle East. There's no point taking a strong view until reality becomes clearer. (Powell just described FOMC members...
Powell Hints at Skipping SEP, New Chair Needed
Powell: if we ever were to skip an SEP (Summary of Economic Projections), this would be a good one. We just don't know. Um, the Fed does have the power to skip the SEP. But I gather it takes a new...
Powell’s Frustration Signals Moderately Hawkish Stance Amid Stubborn Inflation
At the Fed press conference, Powell reflects some frustration that inflation hasn't moved more sharply toward target, as tariff-fueled prices are still working their way through the system. This is a moderately hawkish presser, for reasons that largely pre-date the...
Overemphasizing Supply Shocks Fuels Policymaker Fear
Don't understand why another supply shock should affect the path of rates. Excessive focus on supply shocks as an explanation for pandemic inflation is a problem. Its causing excess fear from poliymakers today.
Powell Predicts Inflation Progress, Anticipates 2024 Rate Cut
"The forecast is that we will be making progress on inflation...we should be seeing that" --Powell, on why there's a rate cut projected for this year