Rate‑cut Odds Plunge From Near Certainty to 14.5%
The odds of a rate cut in 2026 have fallen to 14.5%. Just 3 weeks ago, they were nearly 100%. https://t.co/uMCjhmatJN
Rising Rates Push US Toward Gold Amid War Funding
Fascinating how the surge in interest rates is driving these decisions. The US will have to address this. It’s the only way it can realistically afford a war in the first place. Inflation will be unleashed. Rates will be capped. Time to step into gold,...
Ignoring Growth Shock, Rate Hikes Risk Recession
This "bet" completely ignores the negative shock to economic growth. If central banks raise rates into this, they will cause a recession. Cc @BenRamanauskas
Treasury Yields Spike, Curve Uninverts, Signaling Rate Hike
2-Year, 3-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Flip to Rate Hike. Yield Curve Uninverts. Government Sold $606 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week as the Borrowing Must Go On. Whiff of turmoil in the bond market as inflation fears moved to the front...
Fed Inaction Fuels Gold Surge via Falling Real Rates
The Fed’s Inaction is a Green Light for Gold Here’s my take: The data confirms the Fed is way behind the curve. Inflation is out of control, and they can’t rein it in. Their failure to hike rates isn't bearish for...
Oil Shock Drives Inflation Spike, Interest Costs Hit 5% GDP
Inflation surges due to oil shocks. None of the prior episodes had U.S. interest payments reach 5% of GDP. None. Expect inflation to surge again, with the Fed having to justify a rate cut. That is certainly not priced in markets today. https://t.co/W8K6vFstbd Great chart from...
Discretionary Spending Holds Strong Despite Higher Gas Prices
"This rise in gasoline spending could potentially dampen consumers’ ability to spend on “nice-to-have” or discretionary categories. But the “good news” so far is that discretionary spending growth remains solid – in the week to March 14 it was up...
10‑Year Yield Climbs to 4.38%, Highest Since July
1/6 The 10-year yield was up 13 bps yesterday, closing at 4.38%, the highest level since late July The bond market's view changed in the last few days. 🧵 https://t.co/QnAMwCkKch
Volcker Stays Firm on Inflation Fight Amid Recession
"Despite political pressure and a painful recession, [Volcker] held firm to his commitment to bring inflation down. In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on May 19, 1982, with unemployment above 9 percent and critics calling for him...
Fed's 2026 Forecast Ignores History's Inflation Lessons
1973 oil embargo: inflation went from 3.6% to 12.3%. Fed's current forecast for 2026: 2.7%. Brent is at $110. Up 54% in a month. Either this time is genuinely different, or the Fed is the most optimistic institution on earth. History doesn't care about...
CPI Changes Make Post‑blue Line Comparisons Invalid
It’s particularly amazing because we’ve had extensive methodological changes to CPI since the blue line ended, including a major one literally the month after it ended that make this comparison apples-to-oranges.
Markets Expect Fed Rate Hike Over Cut This Year
1/ Markets now think the Fed is more likely to raise rates than cut them this year. A rate hike is not my baseline scenario, but I see the risks rising, for the following reasons. (Link to column in next...
US 10‑Yr Yields Rise, 20‑Yr Near 5% Mark
UST 10 Yr Notes went home 4.386 on Friday, yield about 10.3bp's higher. 20 Yr Bonds just 2bp's away from that 5% Handle.
Inflation Double‑top Once Mocked, Now Taken Seriously
Lost count of all the times people scoffed at a 1970s-style inflation “double top.” Not as much laughter now. 😞 https://t.co/FTwzh0yQik
Nearly Half of Americans Expect Total Economic Collapse Soon
🚨 INSIGHT Nearly half of Americans predict a “total economic collapse” within the next decade. https://t.co/30yqgjJkPX
Iran War Shock Shifts Global Central Bank Outlook, Not US
Whereas the Iran war shock has barely budged inflation expectations and no more than mildly jolted expectations of monetary policy in the US, the same shock has completely transformed the outlook for many other central banks. More charts, graphs, and...
Washington Rejects Debt Brake, Fuels Fiscal Insanity
As Dave Walker, former Comptroller General of the US, and I wrote in @FortuneMagazine, Washington rejected a Swiss-style “debt brake” earlier this week. NO DEBT BRAKE = FISCAL INSANITY. https://t.co/Tw28jA4nUE
Inflation Stays Hot, Jobs Data Disappoints, Macro Unchanged
PCE, CPI & PPI were running hot even before the Iran war’s oil shock, writes @JohnFMauldin @DavidBahnsen says Feb jobs data was “surprisingly bad” Mauldin sees the familiar muddle-through story with AI capex, services & manufacturing I see an "unsurprisingly bad" macro https://t.co/EGIOgUMGxc #Inflation...
10‑Year Yield Near 4.4% Sparks Epic Week Ahead
The 10-year approaching 4.4% and then we get this "drop" from the president. Another FAFO moment? This coming week will be epic.
2‑Year Treasury Yields Surge to Highest Since July
Yields on the two-year Treasury note are up 0.516 pp since Feb. 27, the day before strikes on Iran, to 3.893%. That’s the highest close since July. The gain over the last three weeks is the largest since May 2023 (the...
Fed Rate Cut Now Expected in October 2027
That is one looong blue line. A month ago, Fed fund futures were pricing in the next cut as June. This June. Now it's October '27 https://t.co/HCElEgtrLE
Markets Flip to Rate Hikes as US Inflation Spikes
Yup. Market pricing in 2-3 rate hikes for ECB and BoE How many for the Fed?!
Iran War Drives Market
Due to the war in Iran and the resulting inflationary effects, the market is now pricing in zero rate cuts from the Fed this year (in contrast to the previously forecast two rate cuts). Moreover, the market is now forecasting a...
Markets See Fed Hikes, Hormuz Shock Fuels Inflation Risk
Mkts expect a Fed hiking bias, instead of cuts. 10yr Treasury yields up even more today (4.38%) With long-term interest rates rising, the Hormuz shock is getting priced as more of an inflation shock than one that triggers recession (caveat: mkts aren't...
Fed Cuts Spark Long‑term Rate Divergence, Now at 5%
When the Fed cutting cycle started in 2024, 20Y rates quickly moved to 4%. And after 175bp of cuts, the 30Y rates is back up to 5%. The latest wiggle is obviously the Iran effect. But the divergence is arguably 2 years...
US Bond Yields Surge to Highest Levels Since 2023
Bloomberg on the selloff in the US bond market: “Not since 2023, when the central bank was still lifting rates, has the two-year yield risen so much above the Fed’s rate ceiling. On Friday, five-year yields surpassed 4% for the first...
Trump's Iran War Costs Outpace Tariff Revenue
Putting the fiscal cost of the Iran war in context. $200 billion > $194.9 billion, which means that Trump is planning on spending more on the Iran war than he took in with his tariffs which raised tons of revenue....
TNX Breaks Triangle, Bullish Spike Ahead
$TNX Monthly. Head-fake lower last month. Surge higher this month. At apex of multi-year triangle. This is ideal bullish setup for rates on 10-Year to explode higher https://t.co/aCdWZY5Kd9
US Economy Endures Decade‑Plus Shocks, No Recession
In the 2020s the US economy has survived: A pandemic Supply chain shocks 9% inflation 0% --> 5% interest rates Tariffs War Oil price spike We haven't had a credit cycle or real recession in 17 years https://t.co/eXayk77G0L
Bessent's No‑Term Debt Plan: Mixed Results So Far
So how has the plan by @SecScottBessent to not term out the debt and keep rolling bills worked out?
Saving Rate Plummets, Signaling Impending Economic Break
Careful when core<headline. It’s a household SOS warning something is going to break as the saving rate (an AVERAGE hugely weighted towards flushest & wealthiest) fell from 5.2% in Q1 ‘25 to 4.0% in Q4, a 1-in-5 postwar event per...
Prefer QT and Term‑Premium Expansion Over Fed Rate Hikes
Fwiw I still prefer restarting QT and solving the uneven distribution of reserves and killing inflation through term premium expansion vs hiking fed funds https://t.co/tp7owr8gxQ
Passthrough Effects Grow over Time, yet Hard to See
Waller’s not wrong about passthrough effects. They vary over time and are likely to be stronger the longer this shock goes on That said, the wise course is to look through them. It just turns out to be really hard in...
Inflation Spikes Fast; Real Stability only when Jobs Slip
inflation shows up on your screen much quicker than financial stability tremors and layoffs. hawk talk out of the gate is easy; hawk walk when UnE is up a percentage point and rising, not so much
Fed’s Waller Urges Caution, Holds Rates Amid Iran Conflict
"Caution is warranted," Waller tells @steveliesman on Friday after voting with the majority at the Fed this week to hold rates steady as the Iran war upends the economic outlook. "It doesn’t mean that I’m going to stay put for the...
Fed Must Cut Rates as Oil‑Driven Recession Looms
Now powell and Fed will be forced to do an emergency rate cut and be late as high oil prices start slowing down economy into recession.
FOMC Hawkishness Index Surges After Powell’s Press Conference
It'll be interesting to see how this looks over the next week, as we get more post-FOMC Fedspeak. But my proprietary measure of FOMC hawkishness climbed even further after Powell's press conference. https://t.co/lNilk5T2yz
Zero Break-Even Employment Rate Fails, Waller Warns
You don’t SAY. This zero bound fails miserably too On @CNBC Waller said research suggesting that the break-even rate for employment is ~zero is another challenge for assessing labor-market strength “My brain understands the math, but I can’t get through my gut...
Trump Should Keep Powell Amid Ongoing Inflation Concerns
Warsh will be out hawkes this year; Trump might as well keep Powell as Fed chair until the inflation story changes. No point in criticizing your guy for rate cuts now.
Waller Warns Oil Could Eventually Lift Core Inflation
Waller having his own personal Trichet moment: "oil can bleed through to core inflation at some point"
Fed Governor Waller Balks at Rate Cut Amid Inflation Worries
Fed governor Chris Waller to CNBC's Steve Liesman: I was ready to dissent for a rate cut after the February jobs report came out. But the inflation picture is looking worse and has become more of a concern because the Strait...
Bank Lending Shifts: NBFIs Grow 60%, Corporates
Since 2019, bank lending to non-bank financial institutions (NBFI) has grown by nearly 60% vs only about 20% to non-financial corporations. Divergence has widened since mid-2022 when corporate lending stagnated while NBFI lending continued to rise steadily https://t.co/QEUhoq4feU
Selective Data Manipulation Undermines Economic Policy
The Weekly Quill — The Princely Scientists — The Power of Selectively Deceptive Data Sign in now to read the latest from @dimartinobooth and Jonathan Basile of #QIResearch https://t.co/r8mkpVrloi #federalreserve #powell #economy #dimartinobooth https://t.co/BJ2zstFVCj
New Home Prices Fall, Inventory Peaks Since 2009
Prices of New Single-Family Homes Drop Further, Inventory of Completed New Homes for Sale Highest since 2009. Hoping for lower mortgage rates that may not come https://t.co/xfMYbwdtVK https://t.co/ImauhfwDWA
Debt Surged $2.8 Trillion Since President’s Inauguration
“.. Since the President’s inauguration last year, national debt has climbed by around $2.8 trillion.” @TIME https://t.co/mLgUsjkGpd https://t.co/cCYSRTcnd9
US New Home Sales Plunge 17.6% Amid Rising Rates
US new home sales collapsed by a stunning 17.6% MoM in January, the most in 13 years. If that’s not bad enough, since the US-Israeli war in Iran began, mortgage rates have surged. TRUMP'S IN TROUBLE. https://t.co/He7ZCDPq2p
Market Signals No Near-Term Rate Cuts, Slightly Higher Policy Outlook
Also in today's newsletter. Per the WIRP function on the terminal, not only are imminent rate cuts off the table, the market-implied policy path is actually *slightly* higher over the rest of the year now. https://t.co/FRganNTPH0
Markets Flip: From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes
2 days ago, markets were still pricing in a (diminishing) bias towards imminent rate cuts. Now we are pricing in a (small) bias towards imminent rate hikes. Folks were not paying enough attention to the rise in the Fed's own inflation...
Oil Must Hit $138 for Recession Odds over 50%
How high does oil have to get for recession probability to top 50%? $138. That's the average answer in our latest survey of economists, who generally see an increase in inflation but little impact on growth from the Iran war....
US Debt Surges to $39T, Bond Market Turns Edgy
Bond Market Gets Edgy as US Treasury Debt Hits $39 Trillion, Spiking by $2 Trillion in 7.5 Months and Not Slowing Down. But debt doesn’t exist in a vacuum: The Debt-to-GDP and Deficit-to-GDP ratios provide (ugly) context https://t.co/0XZ6rkEoI5 https://t.co/ZYPLRQgVkY