5‑7‑Year Treasurys Historically Yielded 6‑6.5%
Back in the day, on average, you could get 6-6.5% on 5-7yr Treasurys @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/rb6v4PeHGs
Just 28% Say It’s a Good Time to Job Hunt
Gallup: Only 28% of US employees now say it is a good time to find a quality job. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/u0BrFnPngN
Import Prices Surge 2.8%, Tariff Burden Shifts to US
"Compared with February 2025, the import price index excluding petroleum climbed 2.8% — the most since October 2022 and suggesting the tariff burden is falling primarily on US importers." (The index here does not include tariffs.) https://t.co/BThM0jjJxj https://t.co/QmsfwHVOLd
One in Five Tax Dollars Go to Debt Service
"For every five dollars the government receives in tax revenue, one dollar is spent on servicing the national debt" https://t.co/GZLf2MrQBV https://t.co/2mBzfPVgm2
Initial Unemployment Claims Rise to 210,000
"In the week ending March 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 205,000."
War‑Driven Energy Prices Fuel Stagflation Amid 4.2% Inflation
The headline is 4.2 % US INFLATION The real story is STAGFLATION Longer war = higher energy prices Higher energy prices = inflation + weaker growth The only uncertainty is how long it lasts. #OECD #Oil #Inflation #Stagflation #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Geopolitics #Growth #oott...
1990 Crisis: Central Banks Opted for Inaction Amid Uncertainty
🧵Let me take you back to August 1990. Three weeks ago, Iraq invaded Kuwait, oil prices have surged, and the FOMC is meeting to decide how to respond. The economy looks wobbly. Payrolls just recorded a small decline. Greenspan talks...
Markets Shift From Rate Cuts to Tightening Regime
Six months ago: markets pricing 3+ rate cuts. Now: pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING. The Fed didn't pivot. The Fed reversed. 37% chance of ZERO cuts in 2026. This isn't a soft landing. This is a regime change. $SPY $TLT $QQQ https://t.co/UxC4Gdd51F
Billionaire Tax Threshold Drops to $50 Million—You Might Be Next
For those who think a billionaire’s tax doesn’t affect them, the threshold has just been lowered to $ 50mm. At this rate, you’re next?!
Fed Speakers Set to Drive Market Tone Today
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – March 26, 2026 🚨 Quiet data day but Fed speakers take center stage — markets watching for tone shifts as rate expectations remain in focus 👀 🗓️ Economic Events: 0830 - Initial Jobless Claims: Exp. 210K; Prev. 205K 1600...
US Yield Spike Driven by Term Premia, Not Inflation
The move higher in US yields has been entirely driven by term premia, not inflation expectations. Real yields on 10-year bonds are the highest in almost a year. The implication seems to be that investors are worried about the fiscal...
BlackRock's Rieder Urges Fed to Cut Rates
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder said today he still thinks the 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve should cut interest rates - Bloomberg
Fed's Losses Shrink; QE Hangover Eases After QT
Fed’s Operating Losses Declined to $19 Billion in 2025, “Unrealized Losses” Declined to $844 Billion. QE hangover a little less atrocious after years of QT and lower interest rates https://t.co/iwXBD2STH5 https://t.co/JmA1t7ABYD
Mortgage Rates Surge, Home Purchase Applications Plummet 35%
There Goes the Spring Selling Season: Mortgage Rates Jump, Mortgage Applications to Purchase a Home Drop. Mortgage purchase applications are down by 35% from the same period in 2019 in a housing market that remains frozen https://t.co/sR0N0Jznl0 https://t.co/Hkfy4IziDs
Fed Expands FIMA Access, Extends Window, Could Crash Yields
This is a really great divergent policy thought we should keep on our radar. If it comes to fruition, we could see a collapse in treasury yields. Fantastic work from @ericwallerstein ! “The solution: the Fed should expand FIMA access to sovereign wealth...
Biden's Final Quarter Shows Record Economic Gains
From my receipts catalog: Joe Biden’s last quarter in Office. Like Michael Jackson once sang, “Do you remember the time?” Unemployment frolm record low of 3.2%, Inflation falling, consumer confidence rising, retail sales up, stock market stable and rising, black unemploymentT...
Mortgage Rates Dip, Spread Widens to 214 Bps
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.48% Same day last year: 6.80% -------------------- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.34% Spread today: 214 bps
Federal Workforce Crisis Revealed by Alarming Data
Once I got started on this piece, the numbers started talking to me, and by the end they were screaming. So I feel like I've got to share it with you: The Federal Employee Crisis Nobody's Talking About. https://t.co/6rdnuvxTW9
Gas Prices Near $4 Mark Ahead of Midterms
National average gas prices are now within cents of the pivotal $4-per-gallon threshold, which many elected officials would prefer to avoid in a midterm election year. https://t.co/Ow36WJehg7
Core PCE Inflation Hits 2.93% YoY in February
GS: We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.32% in February (vs. 0.31% previously), corresponding to a YoY rate of +2.93%. https://t.co/qdzutjc5RO
Oil Shock Forces Fed, Bonds, and Outflows Higher
TLT lost $1.2B. HYG lost $623M. 10Y at 4.38% and rising. In a war. Who buys the bond dip? Foreign CBs may be selling to defend currencies vs DXY near 100. Pension funds face oil inflation that muddies the real yield math. Rate-cut traders...
US Faces $10 Trillion Debt Refinance, Interest Pressure Rising
TEN TRILLION DOLLARS of existing US gov’t debt needs to be refinanced in the next 12 months. This spells more trouble for the out-of-control federal budget in which net interest expense already accounts for 14% of federal spending and is growing...
Trump's Policies Hurt Poor, Enrich the Wealthy
Trump was elected on promises to help working Americans catch up. His policies are having the opposite effect. Together, his tariffs and “One Big Beautiful Bill” will decrease incomes for the poorest Americans and disproportionately benefit the highest earners. Source: Tax...
US Job Search Times Hit Four-Year High, Warning Slowdown
Unemployment in the US is reaching critical levels. The average job search duration has risen to 25.7 weeks-the highest in four years. Since October 2023, the duration has increased by 6.3 weeks, marking the fastest growth since the COVID period. When it becomes...
Rising 10‑Year Yields Signal Regime Shift, Not Safety
10Y yields at 4.38% and RISING during risk-off. That's not the flight-to-safety playbook. That's a regime change. $TLT $SPY $GLD https://t.co/nCaYnxlGaO
War‑Driven Gas Prices Add $530 to Every Household Annually
For every $1 increase at the pump, the typical American household spends an extra $530 per year. Gas is costing Americans $300 million more a day than before the war. My latest newsletter, "This War Will Make You Poorer" (bit.ly/ThisWarWillMakeYouPoorer),...
Import Prices Up 2.5% YoY Amid Trump Tariffs
Looks like exporters forgot to eat Trump's tariffs, import prices rose 1.1% in February and 2.5% year-over-year https://t.co/3UkarMgRx7
10-Year Yield Climbs Amid Accelerating Inflation Nowcast
10-Year Yield Holds Uptrend as Inflation Nowcast Accelerates during #Quad3 The bond market isn’t buying the narrative. 📉📊 📈 10Y still making higher highs/lows 📊 Range: 4.20–4.43%
Recession Risks Rising, Says Economist Mark Zandi
“I’m concerned recession risks are uncomfortably high and on the rise,” said @Markzandi “Recession is a real threat here.” https://t.co/rhvcxMLgtd
US Current Account Deficit Halves From Q1 to Q4 2025
Wild swings in the US quarterly current account deficit over the course of 2025 -- from close to 6 pp of GDP in q1 to well under 3% of GDP in q4 ... 1/ https://t.co/2EuT5nM3jZ
5-Year UST Auction Likely Tough After Poor 2-Year
UST 5y auction will be interesting after a nasty 2y yesterday. Some news cross-currents may have affected clean bidding for 2s which should be a factor for 5s today as well. Also more of a concession would be...
10-Year Yield Near Critical Triangle Breakout Threatening Markets
While the 10-year yield broke out of a short term range, the weekly chart below still shows bonds holding within a long triangle (in place since 2022). If it breaks, it will be a problem not only for bonds but...
Mortgage Applications Up YoY, Weekly Demand Drops
#Mortgage purchase application data remains positive year over year, but weekly demand declined last week. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #economics #mortgagerstes #chartdaddy
Yield Spike Near 4.5% Signals Market Trouble
Long yields broke out last week and finished the week at 4.39%. As I have written many times, nothing good happens above 4.5% when the risk-free rate is competitive with risky assets, as is now the case. https://t.co/mq0q2S2nBU
Past Recession Fears Failed; Markets Still Rising
The last time there was notable chatter about America entering a recession...it didn't happen...markets kept its steady climb... Will it be the same this time around? Vote here & we'll go through the poll results at the top of today's show...
Factory Construction Falls 15% Despite Trump's $18T Promise
Factory construction was down 15% over the last year, even before adjusting for inflation https://t.co/YNFjjiLWfV Reality hasn't heard about Trump's $18 trillion in investment coming into the country. Trump always says, "no one has seen anything like it," which is...
All Central Banks Share the Same Inflation Blunder
Powell's Inflation Excuse – It's All BS! Powell: "Inflation was global so you can't blame us." Me: That's BS. Every central bank made the same mistake – cutting rates, printing money, flooding economies. That doesn't excuse the Fed. It proves they ALL...
Fed Cuts Fail to Curb
the @federalreserve has cut interest rates six times since Sep '244 and U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen from 3.7% to 4.4% since that cutting program began... https://t.co/EQHFpoQsIC
US Import Prices Surge to Four‑Year High
"US Import Prices Jump by Most in Nearly Four Years Ahead of Iran War" "Excluding petroleum, import costs advanced 1.2%, the most since January 2022 and driven by higher prices for capital goods and consumer merchandise excluding automobiles." https://t.co/0glmjMPmLR
Fed Already Equipped to Navigate Supply Shocks
The Fed Already Has What it Needs to Navigate Supply Shocks--my latest newsletter with cameo appearance by @amacker and awesome Don Kohn link from @darioperkins. https://t.co/ihDcQmi2WI https://t.co/jbXalR3zRA
Education and Health Drive Over 100% Private‑Sector Job Growth
The education and health services sector has accounted for 109% of private-sector job creation since January 2025. via ADP
2‑Year Treasury Yield Jumps To
The March 2026 US Treasury 2-year yield hit 3.93%, up sharply from 3.45% last month. This is the highest yield since May 2025. TRUMP’S TARIFF WAR AND WAR ON IRAN ARE RATTLING BOND MARKETS. https://t.co/TfJWZRALwu
US Q4 Productivity Slumps, AI Hype Stalls
This morning, the US BLS released nonfarm productivity data for Q4 2025. Q4 2025 growth was revised down to 1.8%, from 2.8%, and well below the 5.2% surge in Q3. FULL-YEAR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH SLOWED TO 2.1% IN 2025, DOWN FROM 3.0% IN...
War Triggers Swing From Expected Cuts to Near‑zero Hikes
The day the war started (Feb 28), Fed fund futures were pricing in 2.5 rate Fed CUTS for 2026. Now they are pricing in 0.2 of a Fed rate HIKE for the rest of the year. https://t.co/kZikoSqzqz
Treasury Declares U.S. Insolvent; Media Turns Blind Eye
the writing has been on the wall... but still most will continue to scoff it off and kick the can down the road, as the politicians similarly do... The Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent. The media missed it https://t.co/6xs6EPNFXr
Rising Diesel Prices Threaten New Inflationary Spiral
$5+ Diesel Could Unleash Inflationary Mindset the Fed Better Not “Look Through.” Inflation Was already Hot before Iran War. When this inflationary mindset takes off, inflation becomes like a runaway train https://t.co/51qim5kPk6 https://t.co/cBfjwNFSno
Redbook Sales Jump 6.7% YoY, Spending Remains Strong
Redbook retail sales ... no sign of consumer spending stress yet +6.7% YoY WE March 21 https://t.co/8GFoXUdydC
Entry-Level Legal Jobs Slightly Above Trend, Finance Below
So far, entry-level share of employment in legal, financial, & office admin occupations doesn't look functionally different from pre-2023 trends (the population is aging so important to benchmark). A bit above trend for legal, a bit below for finance, in...
US Money Supply Jumps 5%—Largest Rise Since 2022
The US Money Supply grew 5% over the last year, the biggest YoY increase since June 2022. After a brief hiatus, money printing is back. https://t.co/bnnPEsB9x6
Service Input Costs Hit May High; Manufacturers at Seven‑month Peak
"Input prices for services rose to the highest since May, while those for manufacturers jumped to a seven-month high." https://t.co/NMR6KvBOzE https://t.co/DhoJ1m76qO