WTI Surge Pushes US Gas to $3
With WTI now at $87, the oil price spike is now definitely in the big-enough-to-matter-to-the-US-domestic-economy zone. National average gas price is headed to about $3.80; was just $2.90 at start of Feb. I expect this increase will prove extremely popular.
NFP Shows Sharp Industry Swings; Health Care Near Zero
NFP swings by industry between Feb 2026 & prior 12M average. Couple of notes: 1. Even adj for Kaiser strike, health care was near-0 in Feb, a large swing down from its prior +36K/M average. 2. Big down swings in Leisure &...
Feb US Jobs Miss Marks Largest Downside Since 2021
US #NFPs dropped in February by -92K vs +70K expected and +126K added in January. This was the biggest downside 'surprise' (-162K) since the pandemic shutdown (specifically Aug 2021) https://t.co/HgS3Y8EA9t
Stagflation Signals Emerge as Oil Rises, Jobs Push Cuts
At a time when markets are pushing back Fed cut odds because of the oil spike, seeing jobs data that demands rate cuts leaves everyone unhappy. Stagflation, directionally. Not there yet but pointing that way.
All Assets Falling Signals Liquidity Crunch, Not Rotation
The 10-year yield has risen four consecutive sessions to 4.14%. Stocks down. Bonds down. Oil up. Gold down. When everything sells off together, it's not a rotation. It's a liquidity event. https://t.co/6whtUyh3CH
Young, Black, Hispanic, Asian Americans Face Rising Unemployment
Important point: February was a dismal jobs report. But look closer at who is suffering the most in this frozen job market... Young people African Americans Hispanic Americans Asian Americans These are the groups that have had the biggest uptick in unemployment rates. https://t.co/zszvNZ2Xv3
Long-Term Inflation Expectations Hit April Low, Treasury Yields Diverge
Long-term inflation expectations have fallen to the lowest since April, based on 5-year 5-year forward breakeven rates. Yields on 10-year Treasuries seem to be trading on a different dynamic. https://t.co/hStpU22gbY
February Sees Job Losses Across Nearly All Sectors
Yikes. Almost every major industry group shed jobs in February. Private sector overall: -86,000 Hospitality -27,000 Healthcare -28,000 Manufacturing -12,000 Tranport/warehouse -11,000 Construction -11,000 Information -11,000 Federal gov't -10,000 Professional/biz -5,000 Mining -2,000 Social assistance +9,000 Finance +10,000 #jobs
February Jobs Data Deepens Fed Split over Rates
February's jobs report will certainly stoke divisions at the Fed. Some officials are highly concerned about the health of the labor market and willing to cut rates to support it. Others seem more attuned to the risk posed by inflation,...
Risk‑off Sentiment Keeps Dollar Flat Despite Weak Payroll
If things were normal, the Dollar should be falling sharply right now. We just got a -1.9 standard deviation surprise on payrolls, which should be weighing on USD. But nothing about today is normal. We're in a massive risk-off and...
Slugfation Ahead: Weak Jobs, Sticky Inflation
After seeing the weak jobs data, my view is ever stronger that "slugfation" (sluggish economic growth coupled with sticky inflation) lies ahead. @thestreetpro @dougkass @tomkeene @ferrotv @business @SquawkCNBC @CNBCFastMoney @HalftimeReport @ScottWapnerCNBC @carlquintanilla @jimcramer @pboockvar @guyadami @saraeisen @SullyCNBC @WhitneyTilson @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick
Job Losses Surge, Unemployment Rises to 4.4%
The economy shed 92,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Revisions subtracted 69,000 in December and January from previously reported job growth, leading to negative job growth in December.
February Jobs Miss Sharply, Unemployment Rises to 4.4%
February Non-Farm Payrolls prints at -92K vs expected 58K - previously 126K Unemployment ticks up to 4.4% vs expected hold
Jobs Data Sparks Early Volatility Across Crypto, Oil, Tech
🔥 Here’s my #stickynote for March 6, 2026: Big macro morning with Nonfarm Payrolls and Retail Sales at 8:30am — these numbers could move the entire market at the open. Expect volatility right out of the gate as traders react to...
Markets Price Rate Hikes as Cutting Cycle Ends
Cutting cycle is over, apparently - and markets starting to price hikes. Except for the Fed because, you know, he did *promise*...... https://t.co/rJQHqLdaJj
Dow Plunges as Supply Chain Enters Cardiac Arrest
Dow down 785 points on March 5. Worst week since October. Oil at $81. Yields rising. VIX spiking. And somehow, everyone's still debating whether this is a "healthy pullback." There is nothing healthy about a supply chain in cardiac arrest. https://t.co/t59DwX0YJy
S&P Holds Support; Jobs Data Could Shift Momentum
$SPX :6775 is active support, then the lows of the week at 6710. Jobs report at 8:30 could change the picture — the street is modeling ~+55k, and in-line or a little stronger would be better than a miss. https://t.co/qIBCw3h3lN
Waller Warns Hot PCE Inflation, Energy Shock Risk
Fed governor Chris Waller on Bloomberg TV: January PCE inflation is going to be hot. The energy shock is a new risk. If the labor market is solid, "It does say you can sit there and wait."
Leading Indicators Signal NFP Beat, Live Trade at 8:10
NFP Surprise? The data certainly says so. Here are the "leading indicators" for the US jobs report that I follow and it overwhelmingly calls for a beat We'll be trading it live with you at 8:10AM ET Join us on X or...
Oil Climbs Past $84, Stocks Hold Pending Jobs
WTI crude oil yodeling higher.. > $84 But stocks are OK with that... for now... payrolls & Jan retail sales on tap... @teconomics https://t.co/jopqYDfXo3
Fed
Update on the Fed’s Balance Sheet and its Reserve Management Purchases. Adding T-bills, shedding MBS, Treasury note & bond balances on ice, SRF unused https://t.co/M947SfSoUP https://t.co/c3uHc5VmGA
78% Fear Inflation, Making Affordability Crisis Trump’s Weakness
According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, 78% of Americans say inflation is a very big concern for them personally. AFFORDABILITY = GOING TO GET WORSE = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/z3qgrkZ7V2
Fannie Mae Predicts Steady 6% Mortgage Rates Through 2027
Fannie Mae: Get use to these mortgage rates Fannie Mae's forecast for the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate: Q3 2026 --> 6.0% Q4 2026 --> 6.0% Q1 2027 --> 6.0% Q2 2027 --> 6.0% Q3 2027 --> 6.0% Q4 2027 --> 6.0%
Young Non‑College Workers See Sharp Employment Decline
That young workers are broadly seeing a decline in employment rates regardless of education is consistent with our low-churn labor market. Hiring & voluntary quits have corrected from their 2021/22 Great Resignation highs & now young workers are feeling frontline...
Median-Income Americans Can Afford Only Modest Homes
This chart shows the = home price an American household on a median income can afford. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/1bNlhKyjp5
AI Will Redefine White‑Collar Work, Not Just Eliminate Jobs
Note that "exposure" here does not necessarily mean "job loss". It means AI can automate -- or is now automating -- many of the TASKS involved in a job. That CAN manifest as job loss, but it can also free...
New Economy Cars Under $20K Vanishing
As the economy car market shrinks, it’s becoming impossible to find a new vehicle for less than $20,000. https://t.co/rHCJYJoyBn
Three Paths for a New Fed‑Treasury Accord
Guest post by @Petercontibrown on three potential paths for a new Fed-Treasury accord. https://t.co/99ynaEpsMi @NickTimiraos @colbyLsmith @amacker @vtg2 @senoj_erialc https://t.co/xKOGn0fS5W
Florida Condos Diverge: $60K Loss vs 11% Gain
Florida condo owners lost $60,000 in equity in one year. Orlando condo owners gained 11%. Same state. Same year. I break down exactly why — and what happens next. https://t.co/fY7zpTVEkE
Rising Health Benefits Are Shrinking Wage Growth
Sorry, this is misleading to the point of being dishonest. Benefits are roughly 20% of compensation. You're saying if benefits costs didn't rise at all, wages could increase more, but benefit increases have actually lagged pay in the last year...
USD Breakout Tested at January High Ahead of NFP
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Breakout Faces Major Test at January High- NFP on Tap https://t.co/ww8j824xfZ $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/7sX9giMwmH
Weak Job Market Affects All Young Workers, Not Just Grads
Everyone is trying to explain the mystery of why the job market is weak for college grads, most blaming AI. But that IS NOT THE MYSTERY. The mystery is why is it weak for young workers of ALL EDUCATION LEVELS...
Employment and Retail Sales Reports Drop Tomorrow at 8:30 AM
Economic calendar shows we have the employment report and retail sales report at 8:30AM tomorrow.
Wealth Tax Could Generate $4.4 Trillion for Social Programs
Backers project, based on Forbes’ billionaires list, that a new wealth tax would raise $4.4 trillion over 10 years for childcare, housing, and a $ 3,000-per-person check for many Americans. https://t.co/6EYBhzxmZP
UST Funding Strain Grows as 30‑Year Swap Spread Hits
UST funding pressure starting to ramp up as swap spreads narrow 3-4 bps across the curve. 30y tenor now less than -78 bps https://t.co/yWt8DEzUEr
Oracle to Slash Thousands of Jobs in $1.6B AI‑driven Restructuring
Oracle Plans Thousands of Job Cuts in Face of AI Cash Crunch “In September @Oracle disclosed in a filing it was planning its largest-ever restructuring, which will cost as much as $1.6B in the current fiscal year ending May, incl severance...
Fed Cuts Rates, yet 10-Year Yields Climb
since @federalreserve starting cutting rates this cycle (Sep '24), U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen... the green circles show the rate cuts since... https://t.co/g34w7tO0BZ
US Debt Surge Meets Historic Oil Shock, Spiraling Risks
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
Fed Rate‑cut Odds Dip as ECB Hike Odds Surge
Everyone is talking about ECB rate hike odds by Dec spiking to 60% from 20% BUT Fed Fund futures show less chance of 25bp cut in June than a week ago (before the Iran strikes) When do you think the Federal Reserve...
Four Indicators Hint Upside Surprise on US Jobs
EVERYONE'S BEARISH ON NFP - THEY MIGHT BE WRONG ⚠️4 leading indicators say the US jobs number could surprise to upside Meanwhile $NQ $ES are bleeding and $CL is surging. Here's my breakdown of it all👇 https://t.co/tPjJsIC76Y
AI Boosts Productivity, Surpassing Pre‑Pandemic Forecasts
Are we finally seeing AI in the productivity data? A big upward revision to earlier data and strong Q4 bring us 2.2% above CBO's pre-pandemic forecast. Annual rates: 1 year: 2.8% 2 years: 2.5% 6 years: 2.2%
Current Cycle Productivity Hits Long‑Term 2.2% Benchmark
"The 2.2-percent annualized rate of nonfarm business productivity growth in the current business cycle thus far is higher than the 1.5-percent rate of the previous business cycle, from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the fourth quarter of 2019, and...
US Stocks Maintain Record 15-Year Outperformance Stretch
Over the past 14 months, International stocks have outperformed US stocks by 27%, the widest margin since 1993-94. But zoom out. On a rolling 5-year basis, US stocks have outperformed for 15 years running. This is by far the longest stretch of US...
Iran Conflict Won’t Boost Dollar as Rate Gap Narrows
Markets are pricing war with Iran as a hawkish shock for the Fed (lhs). But the US rate differential versus its G10 peers is moving against the Dollar (rhs), because central banks outside the US will also be less dovish....
Rising Oil Prices Force Fed to Pause, Trim 2026 Cuts
Surging crude prices (bottom chart) make "pause" the Fed's default position. 2026 rate cuts down to 39 bps (top chart) https://t.co/Wi5u5aYQXn
US Economy Gains Momentum Across Services, Manufacturing, Auto, Small‑Biz Hiring
Some recent data: * ISM services best since Aug '22 * ISM manufacturing >50 two months in row after years < 50 * Auto sales were better than expected * ADP best in 7 months and most of the jobs came from small...
Trump’s Policies Dent Approval, Economy Stays Resilient
President Trump’s disruptive policies have left some dents, including serious damage to his approval rating, but by the biggest readings of its health, the U.S. economy largely keeps absorbing what he throws at it. My latest column: https://t.co/7lpKP39teh
Health Insurance Spikes Stall Wage Growth Amid Inflation
Companies Report Raging Inflation, Except in Wages & Rents. Double-digit increases in employee health insurance costs hold down wage increases https://t.co/hhJssjhbRm https://t.co/MchphaLdWf
Homebuilders Cut Starts, Offer Incentives Amid Low‑Ball Offers
Atlanta Fed Beige Book: “Homebuilders pulled back on housing starts and utilized incentives to shrink speculative inventory. Some builders reported home buyers shopping around for the best deals and often presented “low-ball” offers. This is especially true in the entry-level...
Delays in Tariff Refunds Cost Taxpayers $700 Million Monthly
"Tariff refund delays could cost U.S. taxpayers $700 million a month in interest, report finds" https://t.co/MHgXnrl4vk