2026 Budget Cuts Growing Unlikely, Odds Triple
The odds of no cut in 2026 jumped from 5% to 17%. The White House wants many cuts, but the truth is that is getting harder. Only one cut is priced in today. Two weeks ago it was about a coin flip to get three. 😬 Nice analysis from @sonusvarghese. https://t.co/ynhVE0nHqQ
Rising Oil Prices Set to Push US CPI Above 3%
Lower energy prices were keeping US inflation rates from rising. But that tailwind will turn into a headwind in March with prices spiking on a YoY basis. We could easily see CPI rise above 3% if Crude Oil stays above...
Tariffs Linked to 240k Job Losses in Manufacturing and Transport
"Tariffs may have affected manufacturing employment, which declined by 119,000 in 2025. Likewise, the trade sensitive transportation and warehousing sector declined by 123,800." https://t.co/ed9bs6nNSn
Stagnant Jobs and Oil Spike Signal Recession, Defense Favored
Recent employment trends combined with the oil price spike suggest recession risk is rising, and this was not on the market's bingo card this year... Though February job losses were skewed by one-time effects, the weakness is nonetheless part of...
Iran Conflict Disrupts Fed’s Economic Forecast Again
The war in Iran is scrambling the economic outlook for the Federal Reserve — again. https://t.co/TGmVeLOISN
Prolonged Hikes Risk Pushing Economy Into Recession
put it this way, if this situation last long enough for central banks to hike, they'll end up hiking into a recession
Labor Market Risk Outweighs Inflation Concerns This Cycle
There is a lot of chat about whether this will be "as bad" as 2022. From inflationary pov, unlikely. And CBs shouldn't be too worried about wage-price spirals, despite the endless overshoot. But my worry is that it tips labour...
Central Banks Miss Inflation Targets Five Years, War Delays Cuts
Central banks have overshot their inflation targets for FIVE YEARS. This war threatens to make that six. If you think they are just gonna cut rates anyway, I dunno what to tell you. Minimum - rate cuts are postponed.
Oil Spikes Signal Cycle End: Income Squeeze, Fed Reaction?
an old debate. Oil-price spikes have a nasty habit of marking the end of the cycle. But is that because of the income-squeeze, or the Fed's response? Or both? https://t.co/IE8tGIRy68
Inflation, Debt, War Clash with Trump's Promises
This is inflation, unfunded spending and war. The exact opposite of what Trump has campaigned on.
Native‑born Job Gains Minimal Amid Massive Overall Growth
we're up just 150k for native-born workers over the last year https://t.co/eUQjDMCvxT The growth in employment was 1.5 million 2024 to 2025, but we know Trumpers are scared of numbers
Oil Surges Past $100, Inflation Data Gains Weight
Middle East tensions spike oil past $100 and shake inflation forecasts. This week's CPI and PCE data could pack extra punch as rate cut hopes fade. 🟢 Open https://t.co/dcFgI6Pdro
Small Caps Tumble over 3% Amid Inflation Fears
Small caps down more than 3% because 1.) Inflation is a much bigger worry than a week ago and no cuts are coming? 2.) Sell the winners? 3.) Lucy https://t.co/3gsriv02Qd
Rising Energy Prices Lock in Inflation, Halt Rate Cuts
With this move in energy and commodities prices, inflation will have a 5-handle in no time. And with that, rate cuts will be firmly off the table this year. Due to the upcoming pain for the U.S consumer, I believe we'll...
Trump Tariffs Stalled Job Growth, Raising Business Costs
"Job growth notably stalled after President Trump began his tariff barrage last April, which created economic uncertainty and raised business costs." https://t.co/jaNVkXohlg
Three Data Points Will Confirm or Kill Stagflation Narrative
🚨 THREE PRINTS. ONE VERDICT. This week's economic calendar isn't routine. Wednesday CPI, Friday GDP revision + Core PCE, and Friday Michigan Sentiment all land before the March 18 FOMC meeting. Together, they'll either confirm or bury the stagflation story that's been...
U.S. Energy Shift Buffers Oil Shock From Recession
Why the oil shock won't cause stagflation or recession: #1 U.S. less energy intensive than in past price spikes. Gasoline consumption lower today in in 2007. #2. U.S. net petroleum exporter. Therefore mildly positive for terms of trade. (link to...
Gas Prices Jump 15%, Boost March CPI by 0.45%
The national average of gasoline prices is up 45 cents since the war began last week, or a 15.12% increase. This is the second largest increase in the last two decades, depending on the measure you choose (dollar or percentage). All things...
Oil Shocks Affect Prices, Not Sustained Inflation
The Financial Times warns that rising oil prices threaten to fuel inflation. WRONG. Oil shocks change RELATIVE prices, but DO NOT cause SUSTAINED inflation. INFLATION IS ALWAYS & EVERYWHERE A MONETARY PHENOMENON. https://t.co/zvENzIWzCy
Oil Price Spike Adds 10bp Inflation, Cuts Growth
JPM: "If the oil supply shock is sustained, we think each 10% increase in oil prices should translate to a ~10bp gain in headline PCE inflation and a 15-20bp drag on GDP growth."
Post‑Liberation Promises Mask a Looming Jobs Recession
"Since Liberation Day -- the President's last big, bold set of promises when he told us everything was about to be magical -- we've lost jobs. We've gone backwards... I'm going to call that a jobs recession." https://t.co/GZQfUVRfWG
Trump Supporters Should Blame Jobs Decline on Weather
If the Trumpers were smart, they would blame the bad jobs numbers on the weather https://t.co/iTCQe8K3EY
Productivity Surge Driven by Deeper Capital Utilization, Not AI
@sffed updated their numbers Friday: Strong 2.6% labor productivity growth driven by higher utilization: deeper use of capital & labor, e.g. existing data centers exerting higher CPU loads. To be clear, this is real & it may be AI-related, but it's not...
US Manufacturing Slows; Iraq Conflict Could Deepen Supply Chain Strain
PMI shows US manufacturing softness. That means supply chains too. What will the Iraq war do?
U.S. Debt Outpaces Growth, Threatening Investor Portfolios
Jerome Powell warns the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path, with national debt growing faster than the economy. Investors, learn how this affects the stock market, portfolio risk, and long-term wealth building. Smart value investing can protect your financial...
Junk Bond Drop Signals Real Economic Stress
High yield credit (HYG) down 0.5% on March 6th. When junk bonds sell off alongside equities, it means credit markets are sniffing out real economic stress, not just a volatility event. Watch HYG. It leads. Always. https://t.co/HpbzOsBALw
Small‑cap Slump Signals Delayed Bull Market Confirmation
Russell 2000 down 2.3%. Small caps are the canary. They need cheap credit, domestic demand, and labor stability. They have none of those right now. If you're waiting for small cap leadership to confirm a bull market, you'll be waiting a while. https://t.co/mDOKLhcosE
Geopolitical Tensions Meet Key US Inflation Data This Week
Iran war headlines will be in focus this week but US inflation will also be front and center. Here are the reports to watch 👇 🇺🇸 US -CPI -Personal Income/Spending -UMich Sentiment Index -Durable Goods -Housing Data 🇪🇺 EZ -EZ & GE IP -GE Trade 🇨🇦 CA -Jobs -Trade
Strait of Hormuz Closure Threat Triggers S&P Futures Drop
If Citrini publishes a substack post this weekend about an extended Strait of Hormuz closure scenario S&P futures are going to open Sunday night limit down huh
Third Inflation Shock May Reset Economic Normal
New at THE OVERSHOOT: If You Thought the Inflation Outlook Was Bad Before... https://t.co/EpRm2cRwzB The big question is whether the latest "shock", which by my count is at least the 3rd in the past 6 years, is enough to recalibrate beliefs about what's...
Inflation Measurement Flaws Favor Trump over Biden
There are measurement issues, and they go both ways. But what is really important for this lying hunk of shit is that whatever problems raise the measured rate of inflation now were also there UNDER Biden. Which means Trump got...
Mortgage Spreads Curb Rates Amid Iran War Concerns
Mortgage spreads continue to keep mortgage rates in check as Iran war sp... https://t.co/iBMRx6aFsB via @YouTube
2025 Labor Supply Drops Amid Immigration Crackdown
Supply of Labor Fell in 2025 on Immigration Crackdown: Massive Change in Labor Market Dynamics that Explains a Lot. The annual adjustments of the labor force to the new population estimates are in, and they’re revealing https://t.co/MX3qqP698c https://t.co/slvC9NEfqW
All‑Sector Slump Hits Jobs, Oil, Credit, AI
So in the same day we got negative data points/price action on: -jobs -oil -private credit -AI capex intentions
Fed Faces Dual Threat: Rising Inflation and Unemployment
The Fed’s biggest fear has always been having to choose between fighting inflation and protecting jobs. Friday’s employment report brought that dilemma a step closer. “Let’s not overreact to one month’s numbers, but an environment in which inflation is rising and...
Job Data Flips: Expected Gains Turn Into Losses
if you expected a gain of 55K jobs and the economy instead lost 92K and you thought two months ago the economy gained 48K jobs, but it turns out it lost 17K i mean what are we even doing here
Gas Prices Rise 27 Cents, War Hits Wallet
Since last week, average US gasoline prices are up 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon. WAR = COSTS AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/2wqMMXwNZP
Asian Unemployment Surpasses Overall Rate in February
Outside of a handful of months in 2020 the Asian unemployment rate has been below the overall unemployment rate for the entirety of the last 20 years, but it popped above in February: https://t.co/i10DDosA0u
Weak Jobs Data Drives Mortgage Rates Downward
Another horrendous jobs report saved mortgage rates today. Had it come in hot, we'd likely have a 30-year fixed closer to 6.25% again during peak home buying season. Granted, w/o the conflict in Iran we'd probably be at 5.875% or lower...
Fed Rate Cuts Ahead Spark Explosive Metals Rally
Metals and miners have recently pulled back as investors suddenly think the Fed won’t be as dovish. Wait until they realize the policymakers are cornered into cutting rates regardless of inflation accelerating, just to keep the government’s debt affordable. That’s an explosive...
Inflation and Job Loss Cripple 2026 Real Estate
Surging inflation and sagging employment double whammy for the fragile real estate market in 2026 https://t.co/4yrdR28tG3
Kashy
Chicago Booth's Anil Kashyap re:Fed's Mary Daly&Anna Paulson: "If there's anybody from the WH here, I think you should have confidence that you have 2 very thoughtful people looking at the numbers...would be a shame if that's not true 2...
Birth‑Death Model Shifts Jobs, Not Causes Payroll Miss
The birth-death model added -46k fewer jobs to the NSA tally this Feb vs last Feb, but it also added +44k to Jan26 vs Jan25. It just shifted around job growth in the first 2 months. Blaming B/D for the...
Jobs Report Soft, Yet Income Growth Holds Steady
A lot of hyperbolic takes on the jobs report. It was a soft (bad) report. On both surveys. Both were better in Jan There are reasons for data volatility that need more smoothing now. Labor income growth stable around 4.5% Prime...
Recognizing Discount Window Could Slash Reserve Demand by $1T
"If the liquidity requirement framework were revised to recognize banks’ capacity to borrow from the discount window, reserve demand could fall by a lot, perhaps about $1 trillion." https://t.co/kkmZqcwLGH
Fed Stuck as Jobs Slip and Inflation Rises
In an interview with @nytimes, @Austan_Goolsbee describes February's jobs report as a "tough" one, although he stressed the importance of not overreacting to one month of data. He conceded that the combination of a weakening labor market and higher inflation risks...
Payroll Growth Stalls, Unemployment Ticks up, Breakeven Remains Marginal
Over the last 6 months, payroll employment growth has averaged -1K/month while the unemployment rate has risen +0.12pp. Consistent with the idea that we're at a shallow but still slightly-positive breakeven on the NFP side, which we're obviously not clearing over...
Cyclical Job Loss Spreads to Education and Health
Over the last 12 months basically every cyclical industry but construction and leisure/hospitality has negative job growth. The new news today is the negative Education/Health, but the cyclical economy has been weak for a long time. https://t.co/TdUz4KvRxm
Current Monetary Policy Fails; Need Easier
If only there were a monetary policy regime that made it easier for central banks to navigate such trying times… oh wait https://t.co/XA5Pw2bVIi (1/2)
Watch Fed Rate‑Cut Signals After NFP Miss
A fundamental thread to keep an eye on after the NFPs miss: the implied FOMC rate cuts through Fed Funds futures overlaid with the $DXY Dollar index. CPI and PCE next week. FOMC rate decision the Wednesday after next https://t.co/Rslg81c0CC