Russia's GDP Shrinks, Inflation Claims Unmasked
It was actually contracting before, they just lied about the inflation numbers. But nice to see it's contracting so much that they can't cover it up anymore. 🔥🔥🔥
Energy-Driven Inflation Drowns US‑Iran Conflict, Fed Cut Hopes Slump
One of the side effects of the blasé market response to the US-Iran conflict is economic concerns seem to readily overridden by inflation expectations from higher energy prices. Expectations for Fed rate cuts through 2026 have dropped to -41bps -...
Mortgage Rates Hover Near 5% as Jobs Data Looms
Mortgage rates have eased back toward the 5s today, potentially due to oil transport assurances from the President. The 30-year fixed is just 8 bps away from a 5-handle again, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Jobs report on Friday...
Fed Stuck: No Cuts Amid Rising Stagflation
The Fed is trapped. Oil at $81 → inflation rising. Stocks selling off → growth slowing. Yields above 4% → no room to cut. Stagflation isn't a theory. It's a Tuesday. Rate at 3.5-3.75%. Next meeting March 17. They will do nothing. And that's the problem....
U.S. Gasoline Demand Drops as Per‑Capita Use Plummets
U.S. Gasoline Demand Fell Further amid Long-Term Structural Shift: Plunging Per-Capita Consumption. Even as miles driven rose to a record. https://t.co/8h6llBxdie https://t.co/2aI68HuTGs
Mortgage Rates Nearing Sub‑6% Despite Week’s Volatility
Even with all the madness of this week #mortgagerates are almost back below 6% #realestate #housing #chartdaddy #mortgagespreads
10-Year Yield Stagnates
10-year yield action this week 🥱 considering all that has happened, maybe jobs Friday changes that https://t.co/30TFujFiHs
US Services Surge to Highest ISM Since Oct 2024
US Service sector activity further accelerated in February according to the ISM data. The 56.1 reading was an unexpected improvement and highest since Oct 2024. The employment and price components also improved (higher and lower respectively). Good US economic update https://t.co/Pvofc3DgPk
US Economy's Quiet Bullish Turn Amid Bearish Sentiment
Everyone is getting increasingly bearish here, and while I understand the concern, the macro backdrop is improving a lot, especially in the US - that we can measure live with Nowcast IQ There is a very very underappreciated comeback in the...
Liquidity Buffers Intended for Crises Are Being Hoarded
Great point in @SecScottBessent speech: Post-2008 liquidity buffers were designed to be spent in a crisis. Instead, they are treated as untouchable minimums and so banks hoard liquid assets rather than deploy them, making stress worse. (1/3) @vtg2 @BrendanPedersen @amacker...
Trump Trade War Slashes US Exports to China 19%
This is the big one, MUST READ Thorough objective new analysis of the impact of Trump's trade war on China-US trade including on key industries @PIIE @ChadBown https://t.co/5eQUPlo1xx
Markets Face Redemptions, Housing Woes, and AI Optimism
Animal Spirits: A Wave of Redemptions Geopolitics vs the stock market vs AI Is inflation risk back? Is it time for a correction? The optimistic view on AI The most broken housing market in America The private credit crisis of confidence & more https://t.co/3VV58HRcdq https://t.co/V5eIvRDjMe
Fed Likely to Hold Rates, May Tighten if Inflation Persists
NEW: Beth Hammack of @ClevelandFed tells @nytimes that with inflation too high and rates at neutral, the Fed should be on hold for "quite some time." The next move may also not necessarily be down: "If we don’t see inflation...
Mortgage Demand Jumps 11% as Rates Near Four‑year Low
Weekly #Mortgage demand surged 11% higher last week, as rates sat near 4-year low https://t.co/2HClawHnMz @MBAMortgage
Tech Leads Early; Jobs/Services Data Drives Volatility
March 4, 2026 📊 Insight: Jobs + services data = volatility window 8:15–10:00. Watching tech strength early with $NVDA/$MSTR bid. Services miss could pressure risk. $AVGO earnings tonight key for semis. Patience at the open — let data hit first. 0815 – ADP...
PCE Offers a More Accurate, Comprehensive Inflation Gauge
PCE is a better measure of all spending and takes account of consumer substitution in their spending. CPI’s advantage is speed: they can tabulate it quicker because you only need to check the prices of a pre-determined basket of...
VC Index Drop Signals Broad Interest Rate Decline
The Venture Capital Index is now down more than 30% from its peak. This reinforces the idea that the entire interest rate curve may be headed materially lower, in my view. Yes — both short and long end of the curve. Also, separately: Just...
Fed Warns Iran Conflict Could Spark Lasting Inflation Shock
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said his outlook, up until a few days ago, supported maintaining a general easing bias. Inflation has been on a trajectory of "gently heading down" while there's no evidence the labor market is tightening. But...
US Policy Uncertainty Likely Rising, Outpacing Dollar Index
All things considered, I would expect the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index to be higher... Uncertainty index vs DXY on the weekly: https://t.co/sVGAiUIrV7
BofA Predicts Weak Feb Jobs, Fed Stays on Hold
BofA: We forecast a below-consensus Feb NFP print of 35k (private: 45k). The u-rate should remain at 4.3% Fed response: wait and watch stance under Powell https://t.co/qQ28IUZLsk
Kevin Warsh: The Radical Fed Chair Who Bridges Tech
Why I’m so bullish on the era of the Radical Fed Chairman: Most technicians aren’t technologists. But Kevin Warsh is both. 👇 https://t.co/90GCOPkuDW
Republicans Set to Embed Wall Street Crackdown in Housing Bill
Senate Republicans poised to ‘swallow’ Wall Street crackdown in housing bill via @Jasper_Goodman and @hapgoodreports https://t.co/F8TqWwkXCb
Markets Price Supply Shock, Real Rates Rise
FWIW/IMHO: markets are pricing in a supply shock. Different from the pandemic, no expectation of rate cuts that wouldn't help. Real rates up.
Stocks May Need to Tumble as Bonds Buy Crash Insurance
The SPX is now down ~2.5%. As the red annotations show, the 10-year yield is 5 bps lower to 4.06%. Bonds are being bought as crash insurance. This probably means stocks have to crash to keep bonds from trading back to 4.11%. https://t.co/Ks8NfeSfzT
Fed Sees Stable Labor, Cautious Optimism, Future Rate Cuts
NY Fed President John Williams with a speech that marks to market his outlook, one that has few changes from recent commentary out of Fed leadership: Labor market has shown “promising signs of stabilization.” Despite a “lack of headway” on...
Wider Term Premia Needed to Hedge Bond‑equity Shocks
Term premia should reflect the hedging qualities of government bonds. If we are going to keep getting negative supply shocks - which reduce equities and raise yields, creating a positive return correlation - term premia need to be a lot...
Market Makers Now Serve as ETF Authorized Participants
Back in the day, Goldman Sachs was the premier Wall Street bad guy. The investment bank attracted endless scrutiny of the supposedly conflicting and asymmetric arrangements that powered its broker dealer operations. Key among these were its primary dealer arrangements....
DC's Limited Tricks Can't Stop High Oil Prices
DC won’t let high oil prices hurt Americans Good luck As @rory_johnston frames it, here are the options • SPR release (here we go again) • Sanctions relief on Russia (err... not great) • Gas tax holiday (2022 redux) You can’t print barrels https://t.co/3KCAj8NtGr #Oil #EnergyMarkets...
Manufacturing Rebounds, but Core PPI Surges Unexpectedly
Manufacturing is finally reviving, but core PPI just jumped 0.8% in a month when economists expected 0.3%. Services inflation refuses to budge. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/4QiEXL6LgZ
Dimon Warns Inflation May Spark Economic Downturn
“Right now, the economy is doing fine, asset prices are high…I think the probabilities of something going south are more than other people think..I think inflation will cause the economic downturn:” JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon https://t.co/xB4HN6ITSk
Trump Refuses Refunds After Supreme Court Deems Tariffs Unlawful
After Trump’s tariffs were ruled unlawful by the US Supreme Court, he is now dragging his feet and refusing to refund Americans who were illegally TAXED by tariffs. https://t.co/vlXQUbwjEo
PMI Rebound Offers Limited Boost for Crypto Speculation
ISM vs Bitcoin relationship is more correlation than causation. The difference today compared to past cycles is credit spreads were wide to start the PMI rebound, due to prior growth scares that led to risk off environments. Since 2022, spreads...
Oil Surges 8‑9% as Gasoline Climbs, Yields Steady
Oil jumping to 8-9% gains this afternoon.. gasoline futures up 12 cents. US stocks ~unch with the 10yr 3bps off the HoD.. now near 4.04% https://t.co/XkTx1P5k8G
LEI/CEI Ratio Hits 60‑Year Low, Forecasting Recession
Every recession since 1960 has been preceded by a material downturn in this ratio. Today’s reading is squarely in that danger zone. These charts show the Leading Economic Index (LEI) against the Coincident Economic Index (CEI). The shaded bars...
Mortgage Rates Drop a Year
BACK TO A 6-HANDLE The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.12% Same day last year: 6.74% ------------------ 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.06% Spread today: 206 bps
One in Five California Home Sales Are
California’s housing market is officially a landed gentry system. 🏠 New data from the Wall Street Journal: 1 in 5 of CA home transfers are now inheritances—double the US average. Does CA need to end Prop 13 to save the American Dream?...
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$TNX Monthly. Another bounce off 4% (40 on this chart) for Rates on 10-Year Note. Long-term continues multi-year narrowing triangle. https://t.co/gUtiLgqcs9
10-Year Treasury Yield Volatility Reverses Haven Trade
10-Year US Treasury Yield Flipflops, Spikes by 14 Basis Points to 4.07%, after Plunging to 3.93%, amid Massive Volatility. It undid more than the entire haven trade that had started on Thursday and blew through the hot PPI inflation on Friday https://t.co/mjFPIIuVi8...
2% Inflation Won’t Trigger 3% Mortgage Rates
2% inflation won't lead to 3% mortgage rates with the Fed at neutral policy. https://t.co/TpEKz1u8Cu
US Manufacturing Grows, Input Costs Surge to 2022 Levels
"US manufacturing expanded in February but input prices soared at the fastest pace since 2022, stoking fears of an inflation resurgence even before this weekend’s attacks on Iran." https://t.co/eB5YwfWkhb https://t.co/qeDvw5frvv
ISM Manufacturing Prices Misleading; Soft CPI Ahead
Some focus given to ISM Manufacturing Prices back in 70. In my opinion very misleading for now (and solely based on energy). But the jury is obviously out. I expect a couple of incredibly soft CPI reports coming up.
ISM Prices Hit 70.5, Steel and Aluminum Costs Surge
ISM prices surged by 11.5 pts to 70.5, highest since Jun 2022. ISM said higher px for steel & alumin drove px index. That is unsurprising & has been evident in PPI data since Liberation Day. For manufacturers, the cost...
Memory Shortage Persists in ISM Manufacturing Survey
Memory shortage reported back to back months in the ISM Manufacturing Survey. I suspect this will be with us for a while.... https://t.co/RUpjKtiOJ6
Broad Market Breadth Improves, Favoring Value and Cyclicals
Second strong ISM NO print in a row. I'm not bullish, I'm BROADish. We see macro and micro breadth improving into 2027. Benefits to value, cyclicals, active management. https://t.co/geofWJYULy
Core Inflation Hits Highest Since Early 2024
CPI and PPI translations into PCE suggest core prices in January rose around 0.43%, give or take. That would be the highest month-over-month reading since February (which was +0.448%) and annualizes to 5.3%. It corresponds to a 3.1% y/y rate, the highest...
Oil Shock Threatens Inflation, Yields, Market Deleveraging
Markets are in risk off mode but NOT full panic YET 📉 $SPX $ES $NQ down 🛢️ $CL surging 🥇 $GC up YET 💵 $DXY strong 📈 $VIX rising Ras Tanura attacked. Oil supply at risk. Iran escalating. If oil keeps climbing, inflation comes back fast. If...
Macro Cycle Shift Triggers Broad Market Re‑rating After AI Boom
Maybe, just maybe, there is a cyclical component to the past 5 months of underperformance in the largest names and momentum factors. A turn in the macro cycle usually leads to a turn in market leadership. We went 3 years...
Ten-Year Yields Rise Above 4% Amid Brief Conflict Reaction
Ten-year treasury yields are back above 4%. Very short-lived reaction to the conflict in Middle East. https://t.co/CSDtKBWAFO
US Strike on Iran Could End Low‑oil Price Relief
Low oil prices for much of the past year have helped cool inflation & given Trump license to tout more affordable prices at the pump. But if there was one scenario most likely to upset that trend, it was a...
ISM Miss Could Cool Yields, Boost Growth Stocks
March 2, 2026 Economic Events : 0945 – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb): Exp 51.2 | Prior 51.2 1000 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb): Exp 51.7 | Prior 52.6 1000 – ISM Manufacturing Prices: Exp 60.6 | Prior 59.0 1130 – ATL Fed GDPNow (Q1):...