Fed Seeks to Block DOJ Subpoenas in Secret Probe
The DOJ probe of the Federal Reserve is playing out behind closed doors The Fed, in sealed proceedings, is asking a judge to quash the subpoenas, which could reduce or eliminate its obligation to respond via @cryanbarber @sgurman https://t.co/HvnC5W8ImQ
Data Centers Must Fund Infrastructure, Not Expect Tax Breaks
It used to be that municipalities would give tax breaks for factories (jobs), but now the data center developers need to come with bags of money for infrastructure and the tax base.
Nearly Three‑quarters of U.S. Workers Eye Side Hustles
72% of workers in the U.S. have a side hustle or are considering pursuing one, according to SurveyMonkey’s 2025 study on workplace culture and trends. https://t.co/iAVeKwhZV4
Software Hiring Cycle Predicts Slowdown in Next 18 Months
This is the industry cycle I’ve been thinking about re: software company employment over the next 12-18 months: https://t.co/38u2sTZ13o
900 Companies Sue Over $100B Illegal Trump Tariffs
Almost 900 companies are SUING for refunds from the more than $100 Bn in ILLEGAL tariff revenue Pres. Trump collected in 2025. All Trump's ILLEGAL tariffs have done is MAKE ENEMIES and create LEGAL & FISCAL CHAOS. https://t.co/I1jP900jcz
Trump Proposes Government‑run Retirement Accounts For
President Trump announced during his State of the Union address Tuesday night that he plans to give Americans without 401(k)s access to a retirement account modeled on the federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan, targeting the roughly 50 million people who...
Chicago Fed Forecast Shows February Unemployment Near 4.3%
The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast for February is 4.28%, so not likely to be much different from the BLS’s official reading last month. https://t.co/fmDwn7LlNk https://t.co/nw9NVUBD9I
AI-Driven Bottlenecks Threaten Prices, Smartphone Market to Drop 13%
The ai advances are real, but they imply some very unpleasant bottlenecks for a bunch of industries, and risk stoking prices in a variety of goods. Tariffs arent the only source of short run inflation risk
Shelter‑driven Inflation Easing as Vacancies Rise, Wages Slow
Fed doves have happy tears, since over 40% of CPI inflation is due to shelter and wage growth is slowing down. Rising rental vacancies mean it's unlikely to see breakaway inflation again. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #inflation #economics #realestate #chartdaddy
Sub‑6% Mortgage Rates May Spur Buyer Confidence
Good to see Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey go sub-6% too. Not because it changes the math much, but because it will result in more positive news headlines and boost consumer sentiment. The type of stuff that can get prospective home...
Balancing Rates Drives Predictable Credit Cycles
In order to have successful capital markets, you see the same things happen again and again. Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, you have to keep interest rates not so high that they crush the debtor, without having them...
Housing Market Snapshot: Latest Home Price Index Insights
Today’s podcast covers the state of the union housing talking points and the recent home price index reports @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #mortgagerates #economics #chartdaddy
New Bill’s Stimulus Set to Boost Spending Soon
The most stimulative portions of the Big Beautiful Bill are about to hit over the next couple of months and will be adding some juice to consumer spending over the next few months
EBay Cuts 800 Jobs; Laid‑offs Weigh Benefits vs Uber Earnings
Case in point: @eBay announced today it’s cutting 800 jobs, or 6% of its full-time employees. HQ San Jose, CA If you’re one of one of them, do you collect UE benefits from CA or get paid 114% more to drive @Uber...
Policy Impact Seen Key in Youth Unemployment Surge
A mix of views around whether the recent rise in unemployment was structural or cyclical, there was greater agreement around the role of policies in the rise in young NEETs and youth unemployment: 47% of panel agreed that this was...
Higher Jobless Claims and Fed Speech Dominate Thursday
Economic Calendar for Thurs. Feb 26th 8:30am - Initial jobless claims: Expected 216k; Prior 206k - Continuing Jobless Claims: Expected 1.86M; Prior 1.869M 10:00 - Fed’s Bowman speaks 1:00pm - 7 Year Note Auction: Prior 4.018%
IMF Confirms US Fiscal Boost Exceeds Estimates
People keep telling me I'm wrong about the US fiscal boost this year, but the IMF just published this.. thats bigger than our estimates btw https://t.co/HKAuw6DenI
Software Engineer Job Postings Rise With Vibe Coding Trend
Interesting chart. Job postings for software engineers have picked up since vibe coding became a thing: https://t.co/vyIZW909Nh
Metals Rally yet to Spark Inflation, History Warns
A very compelling chart. The recent rally in metals and mining has not yet evolved into a material inflationary impulse, in my view. Markets still seem to be dismissing that possibility — even though history suggests otherwise. https://t.co/FhHZJUOI67
Home Prices Stay Sticky Without Massive Supply Shock
The history of homeprices going back over 80 years. It's rare for nominal home prices to fall; it's super rare to have a massive nominal housing price crash. Home prices are sticky unless you have massive supply and distress sales...
Credit Card Delinquencies Hit Multi-Year Low Despite Consumer Worries
Credit Card Delinquencies, Balances, Burden, Credit Limits, and Collections in Q4 2025. Despite the wailing about tapped-out, struggling and cracking consumers, the credit card delinquency rate dropped to multi-year low https://t.co/gJZVHiZnW4 https://t.co/tWcbzsEi0k
Tariff Hikes Boost Inflation Expectations, Curb Durable Purchases
New @ClevFedResearch paper finds US tariff hikes & tariff uncertainty increase consumers' inflation expectations, while uncertainty "strongly discourage[s] consumers from buying durables, especially cars and big-ticket items." https://t.co/IhbQU2Pc4M https://t.co/6C1XUPmqch
Economy Shifts From K-Shape to Emerging “E” Shape
Is this still a K-shaped economy? This was a hot topic of conversation at the #NABE conference this week. In 2026, I told @hdubroff that I see more of "E" shaped economy. https://t.co/rYUsXmGuCy https://t.co/JHiwnPutqZ
Sky‑high Prices Strain Americans, Exposing Trump's Affordability Flaw
Americans are exhausted by prices that remain far above pre-pandemic levels. From a year earlier: Coffee +18.3%. Ground beef +17.2%. Electricity +6.3%. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/b1uvKYJPHt
Flatbed Rejection Spike Signals Bullish Industrial Growth
This is an extreme spike in the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index – Flatbed (STRIF.USA) from 2018–2026. A 40% rejection rate means: * Strong industrial throughput * Tight labor + equipment capacity * Improving pricing power in physical economy * Early/mid expansion phase dynamics It usually leads: *...
Fiscal Policy Dragged Q4 Growth, Boosts Q1
Hutchins Fiscal Impact Measure: Local, state & federal fiscal policy shaved 1 pct pt from GDP growth in Q4. We expect it will be *add* 2.6 pts in Q1 as effects of shutdown are reversed, will be roughly neutral...
Bostic Warns Fed Independence Faces Real, Uncertain Threat
Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signals greater concern about the institution's independence than the more anodyne statements typically offered by his colleagues when the subject comes up He says there's an ongoing threat and the outcome is genuinely uncertain https://t.co/ntwkE73UgE
Fed Vice Chair Urges Big Banks Return to Mortgages
Big banks retreated from mortgages after the 2008 housing crash—now this Fed governor wants them back After a decade+ of "migration" toward nonbanks, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman says it's time to reconsider policy My latest for ResiClub: https://t.co/6IY86V9OTy
Excessive Household Debt Dampens Consumer Spending, BIS Finds
Interesting research paper from the BIS and Bank of Korea on the interplay between excessive household debt and consumer spending https://t.co/inCiWR5V6F
More Pandemic Construction, Fewer Bidding Wars; Less Building, More.
🏗️The places that built the most housing during the pandemic have the fewest bidding wars, and the places that neglected to build have the most. 🏘️ See percent of homes selling above list price by county. https://t.co/giPGgmFuBr
Current Stance:
My positioning & stance update on Gold , Dollar , US indexes & Bitcoin 🧵
Mortgage Demand Hits 10‑month Low, Biggest Homebuyer Strike
Mortgage demand to buy houses just plummeted to its lowest level in 10 months. The MBA mortgage purchase index is now at 150. 57% crash from pandemic peak. 40% drop from 2018-2019 levels. It's the biggest homebuyer strike ever. https://t.co/FVB0HYY4bc
Higher Real Wages Benefit Workers as Consumers
People seem to have forgotten that workers are consumers. Rising real wages is pro worker too, even if some tasks get replaced.
USDJPY‑Yield Spread Correlation Rebounds to Strong Positive
The rolling 40-day (2 month) correlation between $USDJPY and the US-Japan 2-year yield spread has rebound to a stronger positive (+0.6) after 10 months of inversion. Will it just start syncing up or will this gap in carry standing close?...
Fed Moves Needn't Dictate Other Central Banks' Actions
The policies of the Fed impact economies globally, but that doesn’t mean other central banks have to follow the Fed. If the Fed were to implement surprise rate cuts, the Bank of England should arguably do the exact opposite. My latest...
Rich 5s Cheapen Ahead of Auction; Yields Rise
Not surprising to see some cheapening of very rich 5s before the auction later today. 2s5s10s up a few bps from Monday's Citrini low. Interesting to see if the move has legs post-auction https://t.co/ZQjjNm6NwT
Midterm Years Naturally Bring Stock Market Volatility
Yes, stocks in the US have been choppy so far this year. But looking at a four-year Presidential cycle, this is actually quite common for mid-term years. https://t.co/gX328BtAzw
US Policies Amplify Global Inflation Beyond Shared Goods
"How U.S.-Centric is the Inflation Problem?" https://t.co/536nv3SjWg "whatever common elements are shared by globally traded consumer and business goods have been augmented by country-specific decisions in the United States, Germany, and Canada." https://t.co/QflnhV9CDt
Free Trade Is the Greatest Path to Prosperity and Peace
"In the name of both prosperity and world peace there are few steps that we could take which would contribute more than a complete move toward free trade." -- Milton Friedman https://t.co/5HsJX8FJPm
Ernst Vows to Cover Iowa’s $2.55 Price Gap
$2.55 Iowa average https://t.co/qKoxDrbRtX, but Senator Ernst promises to make up the difference compared to what you'll pay
Trump Proposes Tariffs to Shift Tax Burden Onto Middle Class
Trump says he wants to lower taxes on the rich and raise them on middle and working class
Trump Tariffs Produce Negligible Job Growth, a Flop
My view in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump's tariffs: "Only 181,000 total jobs were created in the US last year, down from 2.2 million in 2024. Contrary to the Spinmeister-in-Chief, tariffs are, when it comes to jobs, a flop." https://t.co/LtaB5ShdIl
Trump Wields Tariffs as Coercive Negotiation Tool
My views in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump’s upcoming State of the Union: "With the tariff gun at their heads, the Tariff Man asserts that he can force them to sign on the dotted line, even if it is under duress." https://t.co/rfie6YbkBa
Stay Calm: Markets Build Wealth Over Time
The stock market is a great wealth builder over the long run, as long as you can resist panicking during downturns. https://t.co/o8C03pFJqy
Tariffs Contradict Carnegie’s Friendship Principles, Says Fortune
My views in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump’s upcoming State of the Union: "The use of tariffs as threats and leverage is nowhere to be found in Dale Carnegie’s 1936 classic How to Win Friends and Influence People.” https://t.co/rfie6YbkBa
Wall Street Lawyer Randall Guynn Named Fed Supervision Director
Randall Guynn, a prominent Wall Street lawyer, will become the next director of supervision and regulation at the Federal Reserve, effective March 8 w/@AidenReiter https://t.co/WIPFQbILxz
Overtime Tax Break Is More Complex than It Appears
One of the OBBBA's signature provisions aims to let some hourly employees keep more of the pay earned during their most grueling workweeks. Although the White House has characterized this provision as "no tax on overtime," experts say it's "not...
Goolsbee Flags Stubborn Core Service Inflation, Questions AI Growth Boost
#NABE2026 Chicago Fed Pres Austan Goolsbee third day of policy meeting. More worried about the risks to inflation, especially the persistence of core service sector inflation, which shouldn’t be affected by tariffs. This is after stripping out shelter costs....
Economy Accelerates Sorting of Winners and Losers
For @stripe's 2025 annual letter released today, we dug into a ton of macro data. One pattern jumps out: the economy is sorting winners and losers faster than before. As @collision put it—”the sorting machine is whirring faster”. /1
Musk's AI Debt Plan: Flawed Promise, Real Risks
Elon Musk and the AI Solution to U.S. Debt: A Critical Analysis Link to the complete analysis - https://youtu.be/zxkw2w4-WpQ?si=iZFhj_AoZ_c3m3te