ZIRP Turned Emergency QE Into Permanent Financialization Policy
Quantum leap forward in financialization with ZIRP, but original sin (to your handle) was the Maestro using monetary policy to make us richer than our economy could grow. The Rubicon on ZIRP policy was QE 2. That’s when emergency gov’t action became permanent gov’t policy.
Benign CPI Masks Deeper Inflation, Limits Fed’s Options
Why the Fed can't do much with a CPI report that's benign on the surface: It doesn't at all resolve the dilemma Fed officials face when the inflation measure they care about most is less encouraging and a major energy...
Fed Overstates Shelter Inflation's Impact on Target
The odd part is that Fed officials have made a big deal about the importance of falling shelter inflation apparently without remembering it has a smaller impact in their actual inflation target.
Oil Dip, Not Economy, Drives 10‑year Yield Drop
10-year yield pulled back from 4.21% to 4.11%. Not because the economy is fine. Because oil retreated and gave the bond market a breath. One headline away from 4.25%. https://t.co/62rQysSFLG
Inflation on Target, Yet Fed Likely Remains Hawkish
Inflation data in the U.S. has been released. Everything came in line with expectations. Right now, the market is more concerned not with current inflation, but with the risk that it could start rising again in March amid a - likely...
Accurate Shelter Data Would Show sub‑1.5% CPI, Fed Celebrates
So if Shelter inflation was correctly reported we would have CPI BELOW 1.5% Congrats Fed you WON
Core CPI Stays Modest, Hovering Around 2.5‑3%
A relatively tame CPI for February which is, of course, the before times. Annual rates for core: 1 month: 2.6% 3 months: 3.0% 6 months: 2.3% 12 months: 2.5%
Whack‑a‑Mole Inflation Hits Essentials,
The biggest problem for many Americans is that we have "whack-a-mole" inflation. Just as some items get back to more normal price points, other items start spiking. It's hard to budget and plan when you don't know what's spiking next. Look...
Core CPI Hits 5‑Year Low, Yet 3‑Month Rate Rises
Two asterisks to what would normally be considered a fairly decent CPI report. First, obviously, this was before the economic fallout from the Iran war. Second, the very favorable data imputation in the October report (due to the govt shutdown) unwinds after...
CPI Matches Expectations, Inflation Remains Benign
Few #CPI takeaways: 1) Headline CPI +0.3% in line with exp; core +0.2% MoM also inline with exp. Unrounded core +0.216% 2) Pretty benign inflation read. Recall in recent years there's been some 1Q inflation accelerations; Jan renewed fears of such, but...
Real‑time Shelter Data Cuts Inflation Outlook to Under 2%
Update on our Alt Inflation Indicators: Real time shelter continues to run quite below official stats. We show more real time shelter running just +0.2% vs 3.0% in BLS stats. Subbing this alt shelter into CPI, we get headline inflation < 1.6%...
Utilities Soar, Gasoline Drops; CPI Modestly Up
Price changes over last year (February CPI report) Gas Utilities: +10.9% Fuel Oil: +6.2% Electricity: +4.8% Medical Care: +4.1% Food away from home: +3.9% Shelter: +3.0% Overall CPI: +2.4% Food at home: +2.4% Transportation: +2.2% New Cars: +0.5% Used Cars: -3.2% Gasoline: -5.6%
February Inflation Stagnates at 2.4% Amid Rising Costs
JUST IN: A cool February inflation reading. Inflation remained at 2.4% (y/y) in February, the same as January. This reading was before the war in Iran began, so gas prices were still below $3 average. -->Note that some items had larger...
Job Growth Holds Steady, More Sectors Accelerating
BofA: Average job growth to start the year remains consistent with 4Q levels despite a soft February. Notably, more sectors have accelerated than decelerated. https://t.co/PWt8NmBjL8
Skanda Skips CPI Spaces; Oil Dynamics Dominate Focus
Skanda can’t do CPI Spaces this morning — disappointed to miss it but probably not the most impactful report given the current oil dynamics.
CPI Data Set to Drive Volatile Opening, Semis Lead
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – March 11, 2026 🚨 Big macro morning with CPI inflation data at 8:30am, which could drive the tone for the entire session. Inflation numbers remain one of the market’s biggest catalysts right now, so expect volatility...
Manufacturing PMIs Validate EPS Breadth as Cycle Beta
This makes sense - manufacturing PMIs corroborate EPS breadth as it’s the beta of the business cycle. Thanks for bringing back the 📙! https://t.co/SrEetSesnP
US CPI Sparks Inflation Fears Amid Falling Oil Prices
Just when cooling oil prices promised a bit of relief to the market, the US CPI report threatens to revive inflation fears. #inflation #CPI #StockMarket #OilShock #crudeoil #macro #trading https://t.co/2xB2LsqJuF
Single‑Family Home Supply Peaks, Demand Frozen; Condo Sales Crash
Supply of Single-Family Homes Surges to Highest for February in 9 Years, Demand Stuck in the Deepfreeze. Condo sales plunged to a record low shared with two other months https://t.co/U3vgbxThRe https://t.co/3Dk5D9QugD
Gas and Diesel Prices Surge 25‑40% Since January
Gasoline Prices Spike, Now up 25% since January, Diesel Prices 40%, Heating up Inflation. California is back over $5. Prices in Texas jumped by 25% month to month, to over $3.23. https://t.co/hv90K5cgPf https://t.co/NCe7JLzqmA
Tillis Hopeful Fed Hurdles Cleared for Warsh Chair Nomination
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Tuesday he was hopeful that issues surrounding the Federal Reserve would be resolved, allowing Kevin Warsh’s nomination as central bank chair to move forward. https://t.co/7hUfth4Lf9
Key CPI, US Budget, and T‑Note Sale Drive Tomorrow
Not an overly active global macro calendar for tomorrow, but an important one. Top of the list is the February #CPI release. Will also watch that US monthly budget statement and 10-year t-note sale. Japan has some worthy data as well...
Millionaires Now Pay Lower Taxes than Average Earners
As of Monday, millionaires are officially paying less taxes than the rest of us. https://t.co/x9lEkEmUoR
Housing Links Monetary Policy to Demand and Fertility
Ed Leamer famously argued “Housing is the Business Cycle”. This paper adds color to that claim by showing monetary policy ⇒ mortgage rates ⇒ house prices ⇒ home equity borrowing ⇒ aggregate demand. Housing also affects fertility, as @JesusFerna7026 noted...
High Oil Prices Slightly Lift Inflation, Minimal GDP Hit
‼️$100 oil prices have a surprisingly modest impact on the US economy: A persistent oil shock through 2027 would push headline inflation up +0.7 percentage points at peak, while core inflation and unemployment each rise just +0.1 percentage points. Real GDP effect...
Quiet Recession Ends; Early Movers Set for Growth
A lot of businesses quietly struggled the last few years. Valuations came down. Growth slowed. But few people wanted to call it what it was. A silent recession. GDP technically grew, but inflation grew faster. Now the cycle may be shifting. And the operators positioning today could...
Housing Stagflation Boosts Buyer Leverage Amid Seller Fatigue
The housing market is hitting stagflation. Jobs are cooling, but the unauthorized war in Iran is keeping oil prices and rates high. Sellers are losing patience and re-listings are at a decade high, giving buyers more leverage. https://t.co/tK43N2ajFT
Live US CPI Trade: NQ, Gold, Forex Opportunities
Trade US CPI LIVE tomorrow with Boris and Sam starting at 8AM ET / 12 GMT @fxflow They'll be hunting for opportunities in NQ, Gold and Forex https://t.co/9c2DFZTDGK
Multiple Macro Threats Could Stall Rate Cuts, Spark Defaults
"Iran is only part of the story. There’s also the emergence of AI as a disruptive technology capable of suddenly wiping out, as well as creating, wealth for shareholders and creditors. There are the soured loans that are starting to...
30-Year Mortgage Rates Drop 63 Bps, Spread Narrows
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.09% Same day last year: 6.72% -------------------- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.12% Spread today: 197 bps
Gas Hits $3.54, Adding $25 Monthly Tax
What a chart. Gas prices are now $3.54, up more than 55 cents since before the war in Iran began. This is the highest gas price ever under President Trump (including his first term). This is effectively a $25/mo. tax on most households....
Iran Conflict Spikes Energy, Stalls Fed’s Inflation Fight
The Fed was already struggling to get inflation back to 2% before Trump opted for an all-out confrontation with Iran. Now, elevated energy prices, if sustained, risk delaying that progress further, entangling the central bank in yet another challenging debate...
Trump Deficits Financing Fuels Money Supply, Sparks Inflation
My column in @FortuneMagazine on the US deficit and inflation: "If the Trump budget deficits continue to be financed through the banking system & money market funds, the growth rate in the money supply will continue to accelerate & headline inflation...
Control Money Growth, Offset Oil Spending, Curb Inflation
My new column in @FortuneMagazine on US inflation: "If the rate of growth in broad money is controlled, then higher spending on oil & gasoline will be offset by lower spending on other items, restraining overall inflation." INFLATION = A MONETARY PHENOMENON.
Energy Surge Won’t Spike Inflation, Yields Stay Stable
From my friend at Stategas @donrissmiller: Energy prices have been extreme - but several factors are keeping inflation down - rent, car prices and Quits not leading to higher comp. = inflation remains at 2-3% with a 10...
Boomers' Ladder Pull Shrinks Labor's Share of GDP
This is one of the many consequences of boomers pulling up the ladder on the American dream. The drop in labor's share of GDP over the years says it all. https://t.co/yx32ZJh5Ux
Private Wage Bill Jumps 5.5%, Boosting Real Purchasing Power
"The aggregate wage bill of private employers surveyed in the report rose 5.5% relative to year-ago levels, its largest increase in 16 months. This translates to 3% annual growth in workers’ real purchasing power, an increase of 230 basis points...
Fed Curbs Wage Growth, Especially at the Top
The Fed is winning the war against wage growth, at least on 2 of the 3, but probably would love to see lower wage growth in the higher end
Booker Proposes Bigger Deductions, Child Credits Funded by Corporate Taxes
Senator Cory Booker just proposed a major tax bill: - increase the standard deduction to $75,000 (married) or $37,500 (single) - child tax credit increase to $3,600 per child (age 6 to 17) with an additional $2,400 “baby bonus” This would be paid...
CPI Inflation Flat in February, Near 5‑Year Low
Wall Street has inflation as measured by the CPI running sideways in February and holding near the lowest 12-month rates in five years* *at least until April, when the data collection/imputation distortions from the Oct govt shutdown could fully unwind...
Stagflation Becomes Default Scenario Amid Cooling Economy
CPI and PCE both drop this week with oil above $100 and payrolls negative. If inflation runs hot, the Fed can't cut. If it cools, the economy is already cracking. Stagflation isn't a risk. It's the base case. https://t.co/L3cc4tvY1T
June Fed Rate‑cut Odds Drop to 28% After Iran Tensions
A different cut of the same idea, using options prices that reference 3-month SOFR via the Atlanta Fed's tracker In the one week between Feb. 27 (the day before the first strikes on Iran) and Mar. 6, the probability of at...
10‑Year Yield Surges, Treasuries Lose
10-year yield at 4.15%. Up 18 bps in a week. Bonds selling off into a growth scare. That's not supposed to happen. When Treasuries stop being a safe haven, the playbook is broken. https://t.co/yIChc2y0aR
Yield Curve Decoupled, Then Flattened After 10‑year Spike
Curve shape (white) was completely uncorrelated with level of rates through first week of Iran conflict. That trend changed overnight when 10s peaked ~4.20%. Since then, have seen notable flattening. 1/ https://t.co/zHYcDKsXG6
Quit Intentions Hit Lowest Point Since Survey Start
The % of workers who plan to quit their jobs has fallen to its lowest level since the start of the NY Fed's survey. People who have a job are not giving them up right now https://t.co/p7kO4PdQ2A
June Fed Rate‑cut Odds Drop to 40% Amid Oil Surge
Market expectations of a June rate cut from the Fed have fallen to around 40%, close to their lowest levels in months following the run-up in oil prices, according to CME Group https://t.co/1DRbhts0Fk
February 2026 Shows Biggest Post‑Pandemic Job Losses
The Worst Jobs Report Since the Pandemic Raises New Labor Market Fears The February 2026 jobs report shows a loss of 92,000 jobs—the worst since the pandemic—and the weakness runs deeper than one strike or a temporary shutdown. Job losses...
Taxing Stock Returns Could End Corporate Tax Avoidance
It's actually easy to design mechanisms for killing corporate tax avoidance schemes, if anyone actually cared. Just tax stock returns https://t.co/mpVe5FLf7C
U.S. Pays More for Oil Despite Domestic Production
U.S. consumers are hit harder by rising oil prices than Europeans because we use more oil. The fact we produce it here doesn't help consumers, unless we tax the oil industry https://t.co/DZQmvyBSMk
US Energy Exporter Still Vulnerable to Oil Price Swings
Post-pandemic, American consumer (homeowner) debt was locked in cheap for ever and it made the Fed’s job more difficult. Raising rates didn’t impact spending as much. But we drive big cars long distances so oil spikes impact our spend...