Gallup: 72% Say Job Market Is Terrible Amid Trump Policies
The latest Gallup survey found that job sentiment has PLUNGED. 72% of American employees said it was a BAD TIME to find a quality job. TRUMP’S TARIFFS + TRUMP’S WAR ON IRAN = US JOB MARKET TROUBLES. https://t.co/7LmRVUwORW
Fed's Silence Leaves Price as Only Clear Signal
People want ‘clarity’ from the Fed. You’re not getting it. The only clarity is price. Watch cross-asset divergence — it’s the market’s way of calling BS. https://t.co/DOeCFhRtA4
Lower Rates Lift Yield‑Sensitive S&P Sectors, Not Small‑Caps
Lower rates today helping yield-sensitive S&P 500 sectors.. but not the small caps... 8/11 SPX sector ETFs up with the index -0.15% https://t.co/1d07AUB0cD
US Holds $27.5T Net Position, Funding Global Needs
The BEA updated the US net international investment position last week for Q4 '25 and it stood at $27.5 trillion. That's the amount of assets foreigners own in the US vs what the US owns in the rest of the...
Debt Levels Make 1970s Stagflation Comparison Unrealistic
Everyone comparing today to 1970s stagflation is being too optimistic. In 1980, debt-to-GDP was 26%. Today it's 122%. There is no Volcker option when you owe $39 trillion. This isn't stagflation. It's a depression in slow motion. https://t.co/V2YAlnMATp
Powell Unconcerned About Inflation, Signals Hard Assets
Powell doesn’t seem particularly concerned about inflation. Plenty of “tools” left in the toolbox, apparently :) Two words come to mind: Hard Assets. https://t.co/hITFzs7Q38 https://t.co/POZgWWN4c6
Navigating Inflation Amid Persistent Supply Chain Uncertainty
This growing supply chain uncertainty plus past few years of above-target inflation makes it increasingly hard to "look through" supply shocks. Here is one way to navigate this inflationary minefield: https://t.co/ihDcQmhv7a
College Tuition Has More than Tripled Since 1997
Since 1997, the price of college tuition in the United States has more than tripled. https://t.co/5Atv7qDx6T
Powell Refuses to Entertain Warsh's Rate‑cut Pitch
Powell is asked by an undergrad what he thinks about Kevin Warsh trying to come into the Fed and cut rates in the current environment. Powell: "That’s not something I’m going to swing at, that pitch."
US Treasury Yields Slip, 10‑year Hits 4.334%
Tplex: UST Yields moving lower today.... Dimes +24/32's 110-29 10 Yr Notes 4.334% (-10.6 bp's)
Powell: Fed Monitors Private Credit, Won’t Eliminate Risk
On private credit, Powell said it was a "relatively small part of a very large asset pool" that the Fed was watching "super carefully" About financial regulation more broadly, Powell said the Fed "shouldn't be trying to regulate risk out of...
Powell Claims Inflation Expectations Still Well Anchored
POWELL: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN WELL ANCHORED - Bloomberg. *Inflation expectations (breakevens), below. "Well anchored?" https://t.co/oWnwOzgMcY
Powell: Fed Will Look Through Energy Shocks, Watch Expectations
Powell on Monday reiterates that the Fed typically look through energy shocks, but he warned that "a critical, essential aspect of that is you have to carefully monitor inflation expectations" This recent piece w/ @bencasselman explains why https://t.co/eabY4kFd9d @nytimes
Trump’s Policies Collectively Fuel Inflation Despite Temporary Shocks
Yes, the impact on inflation from tariffs is transitory. Yes, the impact on inflation from the oil shock will most likely be transitory. But the backdrop is every single one of Trump's major policies is inflationary: Larger fiscal deficits are inflationary Reducing...
Powell Says Fed Tools Can't Curb Supply Shocks, Halting Hikes
*POWELL: FED'S TOOLS HAVE NO MEANINGFUL EFFECT ON SUPPLY SHOCKS This is in my opinion the right take, and it completely punctures the probability of rate hikes in the US. They are going to sit this one through
Fed's Miran: Rate Pause Stifles Job Growth, Misfires on Inflation
Fed’s Miran told us he thinks the Fed is holding back job growth by keeping rates on hold and wrongly fighting the last war (inflation)
Powell Warns Confidence Precedes Grasp of Rising Risks
Powell downplays dissent on the Fed's board and says you would expect disagreement when there are both downside employment and upside inflation risks that are growing. "Confidence is what you feel before you really understand the problem."
Foreign Investment Drops Sharply One Year After Liberation Day
As we approach the 1-year anniversary of "Liberation Day" this week, @sdonnan reports that new foreign investment in the US was actually down significantly last year: https://t.co/s1wGG4RQiu
Energy Price Surge Set to Push US CPI Above 3%
For most of the past three years, falling energy prices had been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis. CPI...
Falling
Core running south of headline is a “tell.” Will it catch @federalreserve off sides if they misinterpret the message of demand destruction?
Restocking Signals Stockpiling, Not Sustainable Recovery
Does restocking = industrial recovery if no follow through foreseen? Philly Fed Mfg Delivery Times hit 4-year high of 18.9 in March, FUTURE Delivery Times’ -4.7 was 3-year low; 23.6 point spread a -2.0 z-score reinforcing restocking as did falling Expected...
Both Rate Cuts and Hikes Demand More Income
Cut rates? Need more income. Hike rates? Need more income as growth prospects get hammered, hitting growth stocks.
Fed Funds Futures Return to Normal, Near‑Term Hike Priced Out
Fed funds futures mostly back to "normal" as the near term rate hike gets priced out. Live chart vs last Thurs. https://t.co/F0dnQCJ9pu
Defense Production Drop Caused One‑Quarter of Manufacturing Job Loss
New @nberpubs: "The Cold War and the U.S. Labor Market" https://t.co/uDe0Mn2o4R "the 1950s-to-1990s decline in defense production explains roughly one-quarter of the decline in manufacturing employment" https://t.co/LjOZhGC7OZ
Two Fed Cuts Aren't Enough—Bet on a Different Strategy
Here is what I said: “If your only hope is two Fed cuts this year, you’re backing the wrong horse.”
Energy Shock Could Trigger Demand Collapse, Slowing US Growth
Below is an example of a new and ongoing economic risk to the US economy from the US-Israeli War on Iran — What begins as a "cost of living" problem (Energy Price Shock), if sustained, risks evolving into a "fewer...
Fed's Tightening Leeway Evaporates Amid New Data
Good thing the Fed has plenty of room to tighten conditions to address this… Oh wait…. https://t.co/xZ0zMju2vr https://t.co/uMkuuXymWU
Oil Could Spike to $150, Ignoring Market Risks
Larry Fink: oil could hit $150/bbl — even AFTER a ceasefire — if Iran remains a threat. Brent is already at $112. The tail risk isn't priced. Equities are still trading like this ends cleanly. What does $150 oil do to inflation? To...
Recession Odds Surge, Crowd and Banks Align Signals
Polymarket recession odds jumped from 23% to 35%. That's real money moving in a prediction market. Not a survey. Not a pundit. People betting their own capital. Goldman: 30%. JPMorgan: 35%. Zandi: 49%. The crowd and the institutions are converging on the same...
Treasury Data Shows U.S. Government Insolvent in FY2025
My take in @asiatimesonline on US debt: “The US gov't is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole — it’s the conclusion drawn directly from the Treasury Department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, which was released last week to near-total media silence.”...
10‑Year Treasury Yield Signals Oil’s Impending Downturn
Sec. Bessent, February 2025: "Judge us by the 10y UST yield." 10y UST yield (blue, RS) v. oil, since Bessent said that 👇 "3 Arrows" about to turn into "0-for-3 Arrows": https://t.co/goqhygmgv6
US Gas Prices Stay Low, Softening Energy Shock Impact
For the American economy, the key different between the current energy shock and previous ones is the (lack of) impact in US natural gas prices. That's crucial for industrial activity and electricity prices (and thus inflation). Far less reported than...
Rising 5% Breakeven Inflation Threatens S&P Valuations
Bond markets have rapidly repriced near-term expectations for U.S. inflation in response to surging commodity prices. The implied 1-year breakeven inflation rate is now above 5% for the first time since 2022. Elevated bond market-implied inflation expectations may present a problem...
Low 5-Year Forward Inflation Gives Fed Flexibility
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate very low.. Fed has some wiggle room here @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/7ebc7VndLU
Unemployment Rate Drives 10‑2 Yield Curve Movements
The most correlated macro data that explains the 10-2 yield curve is the unemployment rate. Why? The short end drives most of the movements in the curve, and employment heavily influences the short end via Fed policy. This relationship goes...
Goldman Predicts Fragile US Growth, Risk of Crash
Goldman now sees US growth at 1.25-1.75%. That's stall speed. Not a soft landing. An economy running on fumes. At 1.25%, one supply shock — one policy mistake — tips it over. The runway is shorter than anyone on CNBC is admitting. $SPY $DIA https://t.co/4Krvew1NCo
Rising Diesel Prices Signal Delayed Inflation Surge
Diesel: $3.89 → $5.37/gal. Every truck. Every delivery. Every shelf. The inflation pipeline hasn't fully hit yet. Freight costs are the slow burn that shows up 60-90 days later. You haven't felt this yet. You will. $XLE $IYT https://t.co/OaV580UlNv
Labor Market Cracks, Rates Rise, Growth Slows: Triple Warning
February payrolls: -92,000. Unemployment: 4.5%. The labor market cracked while everyone watched oil. A cracked labor market + rising rates + slowing growth. That's not a soft landing. That's three warning signs firing at once. $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/LY08qXAJYh
Fed Chair Switch Could Trigger Unexpected Pivot Amid Rising Inflation
Powell out in May. Warsh in. Market is pricing hikes. New chair may cut. The wildcard nobody's discussing: what if the Fed pivots just as inflation re-accelerates? One transition. Two completely different outcomes. $SPY $TLT https://t.co/zmsbBtchWk
One‑Year Inflation Swaps Hover Near 3%, No Panic
No major inflation scare yet... 1yr inflation swap only about 3%.. not alarming by historical trends Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/YfD4ihEjtb
Bond Market Squeezes Yield Expectations, Proves Wrong
2Y yield: 3.89%. 5Y yield: crossed 4%. Everyone was positioned for rate cuts. Everyone was wrong. Bloomberg calls it the biggest positioning squeeze in years. The bond market just delivered a reality check. $TLT $IEF https://t.co/jyYH8ebPrR
Rate Hike Outlook Reverses, 10‑Year Yields Surge
We started 2026 with multiple rate cuts priced in. Now the market is leaning towards a hike. The 10-year is at 4.43% and still accelerating. We cover what that feedback loop means for stocks in the latest episode. $SPY $QQQ $IEF...
CPI Set to Jump Above 3%, Prompting Fed Hike
I expect the April 10th CPI print to spike 70-100 basis points, coming in north of 3%. And then the Fed is going to hike rates 🥸
Personal Services Spending Fuels 3.3% Inflation, Outpacing Fed Target
Robust consumer spending on manicures, haircuts, and dog daycare is FORCING services inflation to 3.3%/yr. That's stubbornly above the Fed's 2%/yr target. THE US WILL NEVER GET THE INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/YhMhZTG7Gl
Yield Spread Peaks, Prompting Duration Risk Exit
3m10y yield spread 71bps... highest since July 2022... time to step out on the duration-risk curve? $AGG https://t.co/ozSwbxzLA4
Recession Odds Near 50% as Soft Landing Remains Priced
Goldman 30%. JPM 35%. Zandi 49%. Recession odds are climbing fast. When does consensus cross 50%? The market is still priced for a soft landing. Economists are no longer calling it one. $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/XqeBtrupla
US Inflation Rises; Ongoing US‑Iran Conflict Keeps It High
🇺🇸 US inflation keeps rising. As long as the US-Iran conflict persists, inflation will likely stay elevated. https://t.co/LatxByAQYN
Iran War Triggers Four-Week Mortgage Rate Surge
Rising inflation and gas prices aren’t the only economic challenges arising from the Iran war. Mortgage rates have risen 4 weeks in a row since Trump started the conflict; the average 30-year rate is now 6.38%. @wsj
Goldman Sachs Predicts US Economy Hit by Trump's Iran War
Thanks to Trump's war on Iran, Goldman Sachs concludes that the US economy will take A BIG HIT. It's time to start taking the 2nd President of the U.S. Thomas Jefferson's proclamation seriously: "I hold it that a little rebellion now...
Rising Yields and Growth Fears Prompt TLT, SPY Sell‑offs
10Y yield at 4.44%. Highest since July 2025. Rates rising while growth fears mount. $TLT sellers and $SPY sellers agree on one thing: neither wants to own the future right now. That's a problem. https://t.co/lYjNri1VOz