Sub‑6% Mortgage Rates Hit Lowest Since 2015
Q4 2025 NMDB data reveals that 78% of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%, that's down from the peak of 93% in Q2 2022. The share of mortgaged homes with a rate below 6% is the lowest since 2015. The average rate on outstanding debt is 4.4%. https://t.co/DHbHyUSbVm
February Retail Gains 0.6%, Led by Department Stores
Retail sales +0.6% in February +3.0% dept stores +2.3% health, personal care +2.0% clothes +1.3% sporting, hobby, music, books +1.2% cars, parts +0.9% gas stations +0.7% online +0.5% electronics +0.4% restaurants, bars +0.4% building mats, garden -1.0% grocery -1.0% furniture
CPI Overstates Inflation; Truflation Reveals Gas‑Driven Deflation
Remember the CPI is a one year fixed basket, which by definition ignores demand destruction in categories that rise in price (gasoline) and demand substitution in areas with falling prices. By definition this leads to an overstated CPI vs actual...
Markets React to Labor Data; ADP Beat Nudges Yields
Market will be sensitive to labor market data. A smallish ADP beat pressuring Ts a bit
JOLTS Signals Worsening Labor Market Ahead of War
JOLTS gives us bad news on the state of the labor market BEFORE the war https://t.co/vqa0JUhY2f
RSM US Financial Conditions Index Turns Negative, Slight Growth Drag
"Our RSM US Financial Conditions Index, which has been decelerating since early February, has turned negative, implying a modest drag on growth." -Joe Brusuelas, RSM
Each Dollar of Debt Increases Rate Risk, Reduces Crisis Flex
From the @wsj “the safety of Treasury debt is a function of math and confidence…. There is no magic number where U.S. debt becomes unsustainable, but every tick upward leaves the government more exposed to interest-rate fluctuations and less able...
Markets Rally as Trump Iran News Eclipses US Retail Sales
Trump’s Iran update vs US Retail Sales - that’s the main focus for markets today. Stocks up, dollar down, Gold firm but Oil still above $100. Here’s what to watch 👇 https://t.co/gU5QbERzUH
US Imports Plunge in 2025 After Trump Tariffs
The one year anniversary of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs is Thursday (April 2). This pieces asks: What happened to US imports in 2025, in light of all of those Trump tariffs? If you 💕💕💕 charts, you will want to read 👇
Hiring Hits 10-Year Low, Labor Market Paralysis Deepens
Today’s JOLTS data highlighted the extent of the labor market paralysis that was already deepening before the Iran war. Hiring made a new 10+ year low in February excluding pandemic distortions, via @bespokeinvest https://t.co/xYctvNLqUZ
Supermarket Inflation Drops to 2.3% YoY, up 48
BofA Nielsen: Supermarket inflation fell to 2.3% YoY in March +47.9% on the 7yr stack https://t.co/Jlz9FUMWAG
Young Tech Unemployment Aligns with Overall Tech Rates
GS: Unemployment Among Young Tech Workers Has Fallen Back in Line With Unemployment for All Tech Workers https://t.co/oAVQfwTaF4
Adjusted GDP Shows US Economy Moderately Slowing in 2025
Real economists repeatedly cautioned that, bc of tariffs & DOGE (& later the shutdown), topline GDP figures could be distorted due to swings in trade flows & govt activity. So, they recommended excluding those things, and it shows a modestly...
Immigration Barely Drives U.S. Labor Productivity Gains
"In this blog post, we ask how much of the evolution in average U.S. labor productivity...can be attributed to changes in the composition of the workforce, with a particular focus on immigration. The short answer: very little." https://t.co/89nFQJzJXe https://t.co/UNZGnsrUqE
Geopolitical Tensions, Not Jobs Data, Drive Mortgage Rates
Does jobs week matter for mortgage rates as the Iran war intensifies? https://t.co/eNWu4sPUwS via @YouTube
U.S. Labor Market Slows to Low‑Hire, Low‑Fire Cycle
The labor market can be "roughly steady" with a lotta hiring matched by a lotta firing, or few fires matched by few hires. The U.S. is moving into a low hire-low fire equilibrium, which really hurts folks—the young, those (re-)entering...
Interest on Debt Outpaces Entire U.S. Defense Budget
$39T national debt. 10Y yield: 4.44%. Annual interest: ~$1.1T. That exceeds the entire defense budget. The US is paying more to service its past than to defend its future. There is no clean exit from a fiscal spiral at this scale. --- https://t.co/maHJkCjSBw
President Regrets Appointing Central Banker Who Defied Rate Cuts
Wild story: President appoints someone to the central bank recommended by his own finance minister. The appointee resists the president's demands to approve bigger rate cuts, and now the president says he "stupidly" followed the minister's advice, leading to "the...
US Industrial Production Flat, Not Soaring.
My friend Thematic Markets gets this wrong -- US industrial production (using the series that leaves out chips, which is still benefitting from Biden era policies) is flat not way up 1.x https://t.co/pYA4LZEt8F
Powell's Reassurance Drops Mortgage Rates Despite Oil Surge
Mortgage rates are lower today thanks to Jerome Powell. Why? Because he put fears of Fed rate hikes to bed during a Q&A session with Harvard students yesterday. Despite surging oil prices, he said “We feel like our policy’s in a...
Rate‑Hike Odds Surge, Triggering Massive Market Unwind
January: everyone positioned for rate cuts. Now: hike odds above 50%. That's the largest positioning reversal in years — and the mechanics of unwinding a crowded consensus take months, not weeks. Every hot inflation print, every hawkish Fed signal triggers another exit from...
Rate‑cut Bets Collapse, Biggest Positioning Reversal in Years
January: everyone was long rate cuts. Now: hike odds >50%. That's not a rotation. That's the largest positioning reversal in years — and the unwind isn't finished. $SPY -3.4%. $QQQ -4.2%. The price tells you where we are in that unwind. --- https://t.co/mDbRSIwQT2
Fed Pledges Policy Actions to Sustain Low Inflation Expectations
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid: Inflation expectations have been low because the central bank has previously acted to make sure inflation will stay low. "It is now our job to follow through with policy actions that validate those expectations."
January Job Surge Was Cherry‑picked; February Shows Decline
Recently, the January surge in US manufacturing job openings was cited as evidence of US tariff success. Today's JOLTS report shows a significant retreat in February. Alas, the perils of cherrypicking. https://t.co/iGuSwqceO5
Sticky Inflation Pushes Rate Cuts to Q3/Q4
Well, the good news in all of this, assuming it's actually coming to a close, is it hasn't lasted long enough to do material impact to the labor market. The bad news is we probably locked in stickier inflation which...
Iran Oil Shock Spikes US Inflation Expectations to 2025 Highs
"Unsurprisingly given the Iran war oil shock, consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to levels last seen in August 2025, when US consumers awaited more tariff announcements from the US federal government." - The Conference Board...
Recession Risk Doubles Normal, yet Stays Under 50%
If you're asking whether 30% recession risk is bad, compare it with the right baseline. Normal is about 14%. So yes, we're still below 50%—but we're also roughly double normal. Seems troubling. https://t.co/2dO5Qjmi3q
US Job Churn Hits Near‑Recession Lows, JOLTS Shows
With this latest JOLTS release, we're at a US labor market churn rate that's among the lowest since data began, rivaling the depths of the Great Recession. https://t.co/F9CRiQJ4c9
February Hires Rate Hits Pandemic‑level Low of 3.1%
"The hires rate decreased over the month [of February 2026] to 3.1 percent. This was the lowest hires rate since April 2020 when it was also 3.1 percent." Employers only brought on as many workers (as a % of payrolls)...
Hiring Slumps, Layoffs Remain Low in Labor Market
The no-hire, no-fire labor market. The private-sector hiring rate fell to 3.3% in February, the lowest since Feb. 2010, when the unemployment rate stood at 9.7%. The layoff rate, however, continues to hold steady at low levels. https://t.co/oFDKXdikju
Job Openings Rise in January, but Overall Vacancy Rate Falls
Job openings for January were revised up, but the three-month moving average continues to gently grind lower through February There were 0.9 vacancies for every worker counted as unemployed in February, near the low for the current business cycle. https://t.co/5ET6aMzmsE
U.S. Hiring Drops to 3.1%, Signaling Looming Layoffs
Yikes. The U.S. hiring rate fell to 3.1% in February, the lowest since April 2020. This is a hiring recession. And Americans are feeling it. There were notable hiring pullbacks in February in hospitality and construction. Bottom line: The job market...
U.S. Economy Can Absorb Higher Oil Prices, Avoid Recession
Not saying it’s going to be enjoyable or inherently desirable, but the US economy can handle substantially higher oil prices without falling into recession
Fed Aims to Curb Wages to Hit 2% Inflation
The Fed would like this lower to get wage growth back down to 3% or lower to target 2% inflation.
Trump's Overtime Tax Deduction Hits, Stumps Democrats
President Donald Trump’s new tax deduction for overtime looks like a hit this filing season, and that’s shaping up to be a big challenge for Democrats. via @Brian_Faler https://t.co/fpMNZCrW6U
New Strait Strategy Sparks Slugflation, Overvalued Stocks
@jimcramer @carlquintanilla Jim I respectfully disagree with your upbeat assessment (as it relates to equities) of the new strategy to cede control of the Strait. The knock on consequences of this new strategy are broad, inflationary and economic dulling. The policy...
Diesel Prices, Not Gas, Threaten US Inflation Surge
The bigger concern for the US economy isn't gas prices, but diesel prices, as @amoshochstein tells @annmarie just now. They're at the highest since 2022 and bumping up against those highs, at $5.45 a gallon. That's the price that'll pressure...
Fuel Hits $4+ per Gallon, Spurring Spending Slowdown
The AAA average fuel price is officially over $4 a gallon for the first time since mid-August 2022. Prices are up over $1 since the war in Iran began. Americans are paying $50 a month more in fuel costs. This is a...
Key U.S. Data and Fed Speeches Signal Softening Outlook
Economic Calendar for Tues. March 31 9:00am - Case-Shiller home price y/y for January: Expected 1.37%; Prior 1.4% 9:45 - Chicago PMI for March: Expected 54.6; Prior 57.7 10:00 - JOLTS job openings for February: Expected 6.895M; Prior 6.946M - CB consumer confidence for March: Expected 88; Prior...
Central Banks, Not Treasuries, Curb Debt Monetization
Indeed no Treasury has ever said "stop monetizing debt, that's inflationary." It is the independent central bank's job to push back on debt monetization.
Powell Denies QE's Role in Inflation and Inequality, Lies
Today, in a speech at Harvard, Fed Chair Powell claimed that QE (the explosion of the money supply) did not cause inflation, nor did it contribute to the massive increase in US income inequality post-COVID. Those statements are blatantly UNTRUE. THE FED...
Rising Commodity Prices Signal Inflation Pressure, Fed Worried
🇺🇸 Commodity prices and inflation in the U.S. Historically, there has been a strong positive correlation between them. The Fed has reason to be concerned, experts note. https://t.co/bbqfZAAukN
2026 Real Income Growth Slips to 1.7%, Low-Income Lag
GS: We Now Forecast Only 1.7% Real Income Growth in 2026, With Significant Underperformance Among Lower-Income Households https://t.co/fOdqPIkwQw
Private Credit Stress
Private Credit contagion on top of negative supply shock... Wall St risks directly to affect Main St. Will Bessent do "whatever it takes" to push down long-term MBS rates & govt bond interest expense? QE & rate cuts would be especially inflationary.
Candidate Calls for Retroactive 100% Wealth Tax Since 1964
Democratic candidate for president, 2028: "I am proposing a 100% wealth tax retroactive to 1964 that kicks in at $5."
10‑Year Yield Breach: Will Geopolitics
If the 10Y breaks 4.5%… does geopolitics change? Or does policy get forced to change first? https://t.co/yInQSNy76L
Rising 10Y Yields and Inflation Pressure Asset Prices
"The 10Y and inflation moving up are not good for asset prices." Ram on @bitsandbips https://t.co/6eQLOwwmn9
Fed Can Pause; War‑Driven Inflation Expected to Fade
Williams of @NewYorkFed echoes Powell’s view this morning that the Fed can afford to wait and see the economic impact of the Iran war before making any policy moves. He expects the burst of inflation stemming from the war to fade...
Markets Show Capitulation: Yields Drop, USD Rises, Equities Fall
We are starting to see what I would characterize as true capitulation. When you see bond yields coming down sharply, even if the oil price is a tad up, while the USD strengthens and equities sell off, it smells like...
Powell Warns: Rapid US Debt Growth Demands Action
Powell says US debt is growing fast, and that something needs to be done Powell has also been the Fed Chair the last few years and holds some power What has he been doing? https://t.co/c7TWjsGmju