Holiday Week Brings Continued Wild Market Volatility
We still have NFPs tomorrow - which can generate volatility through thinned liquidity - but by and large the market is done for the week. What to expect next week? Wild Market Volatility Likely to Continue Through Holiday Conditions https://t.co/cnoL8Uiqb5
Bond Traders Show Minimal Bearishness Ahead of Jobs Report
Bond traders are the least bearish in 10 years ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report: BMO survey. Just 24% of respondents saw the next 15 bp move in 10-year yields as being higher, the lowest since Nov. 2010. Most see the...
NFP Never Released When Markets Are Closed
When is the last time they released NFP on a day the market was closed?
Near‑Zero Breakeven Job Growth Makes Payroll Declines Likely
A new paper from Fed board economists concludes that "breakeven" job growth is near zero, which means negative job growth would be almost as likely as positive job growth in any given month even if the economy is at equilibrium. The...
Payrolls Edge Above Forecast, Unemployment Holds Steady
GS: We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 70k in March, slightly above consensus of +65k. The big data indicators we track were mixed in March. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.4% in March...
Presidential Data Spin Undermines Trust in Economic Statistics
"That trust is frayed by the president spinning economic data before it is even released. Claudia Sahm, said that “it’s a degrading of an institution, it’s a degrading of a norm” that runs the risk of “chipping away at the...
Trump’s “Strongest Economy” Claim Clashes with Modest Growth
Trump says he built the "strongest economy in history". TRUMP = HASN’T LOOKED AT THE DATA. USA REAL GDP GROWTH 2024 = 2.8%/yr USA REAL GDP GROWTH 2025 = 2.1%/yr. https://t.co/ZEBSTs32ra
War and Inflation Likely Cancel Fed Rate Cuts This Year
Markets were expecting two to three rate cuts from the Fed this year until Trump’s War in Iran began to wreak financial havoc. With inflation picking up, it looks like we might not get any rate cuts at all this...
National Debt Is About Sustainability, Not Household Limits
Public debt isn’t like household debt. A family can hit a hard stop. A country can refinance, tax, grow, and revisit its budget year after year. The issue is sustainability, not a single scary number. https://t.co/T4l1gg78Xk
2026 Forecast: Economy Expected to Grow 4‑5% Real
“We are going to see a very, very strong economy this year. We could see between 4 and 5% real growth." - Scott Bessent, Jan 2026 https://t.co/JlonK53rXZ
US Current Account Deficit Steadies Near 4% of GDP
True, but also a bit deceptive. The spike in q1 overstated the "true" current account deficit, and the unwinding of gold and pharma front running depressed the h2 deficit. The underlying current account deficit is still...
Tariffs Boost Inflation, Stall Growth, Offer No Trade Gains
Four theses on tariff impacts: 1. Evidence clearly shows they've added 0.5-1.0pp to inflation. Evidence consistent with them subtracting from growth. And no evidence they've done anything good for manufacturing or trade deficits (but they have raised revenue).
Economy Thriving: Record Gains Amid Minimal Recession
The unemployment rate is 4.4%. This week’s ADP payroll report was better than expected. The retail sales report was also better than expected and the January report was revised higher. The ISM Manufacturing report was positive for the third month in a row,...
AI-Enabled Goods Lead US Imports in 2025
AI-enabling goods were big drivers of US imports in 2025. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/hsx98RbAJP
Tariffs Cut Trade Deficit to Lowest Since 2020
The Massive Unsustainable Trade Deficit in Goods Has Improved Sharply. Tariffs Are Doing their Job. The 6-month average trade deficit in goods fell to $80 billion, the least-bad since 2020 https://t.co/xhTU8KRbPU https://t.co/pDi3O4iYwF
Key Metrics to Watch for Tomorrow’s Jobs Day
If you're trying to figure out what metrics actually matter for Jobs Day tomorrow, check out this valuable piece from @PrestonMui and @_vikasbp: How The Fed Is Tracking Jobs Day https://t.co/zWQYamKDaT https://t.co/NeRpIroGPi
Fed Model Returns: Rates Matching Equities Threaten Stocks
One of my main themes since the rate reset in 2022 is that the Fed model is “back.” The Fed model, popularized by Alan Greenspan during the 1980’s, holds that when the risk-free rate (Treasuries) is competitive with risky assets...
61% of Americans Anticipate Recession Within Year
The latest Ipsos Consumer Tracker finds that 61% of Americans expect a recession within the next 12 months. While recession storm clouds are gathering, a slowdown is BAKED IN THE CAKE. https://t.co/uijU8le8FD
Core Truflation Below Headline Signals Consumer Spending Cut
"If you look at Truflation, you are seeing core Truflation running below headline, it is telling you that consumers are already cutting back on discretionary purchase." https://t.co/AZWaQ8HgmF #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/3Qh0AXdqub
10‑Year Yield
Another big development last week was that the 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply to 4.48%. The chart below shows that the yield has continued to coil in a large triangle, and could be on the verge of a break-out. Meanwhile,...
Dallas Fed Chief Defends Ample‑reserves, Rejects Tiered Quotas
In a speech this morning, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan delivers a clear defense of the ample-reserves framework at a moment when others (Warsh/Bessent) have implied a course correction would be desirable. In the speech and a far more detailed...
Fed’s Reserve Policies Shield Wall Street, Fuel Inflation
It prevents fed funds cuts, props up Wall Street, props up inflation, all because the Repo Gang of Four won't deal with uneven distribution of reserves.
US Trade Deficit Grows in February Despite Record Exports
US Trade Deficit Widens in February As Imports Offset Record Exports. Capital goods. AI. Will the Iran war affect March? https://t.co/DKavl92Fdl
Energy Crisis Turns Into Mortgage Rate Surge for Buyers
The energy shock is now a financial shock—and it’s hitting American homebuyers directly War → higher Treasury yields → higher mortgage rates → worse housing affordability
Promised Jobs Lag; Most Face Rising Prices
"Those jobs and factories haven’t materialized, at least on the grand scale the president and his top advisers have promised." "Even if... there are some sectors that have positive employment effects, the effect for most people is going to be higher...
US Investment, Jobs, Trade Balance All Deteriorate Since Liberation Day
Since Liberation Day, a year ago today: * US foreign direct investment is lower * US factories employ 89,000 fewer people * US goods trade deficit is UP 2% https://t.co/LJ7h0yLJXG https://t.co/vWvQ4Xgy8E
Jobless Claims Rise Slightly Ahead of Fed Speeches
Economic Calendar for Thurs. April 2 8:30am - Initial Jobless Claims: Expected 212k; Prior 210k - Continuous jobless claims: Expected 1.84M; Prior 1.819M 11:00 - Fed’s Logan speaks 12:45pm - Fed’s Bowman speaks
US Manufacturing Expands Moderately, ISM Index Hits 52.7
U.S. MANUFACTURERS reported a moderate expansion of business activity for the third month running in March. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index edged up to 52.7 (50th percentile for all months since 2000). The index has been above the...
Global Quad3 Stagflation Triggers Bond Yield Surge
US Stocks Only Fans don't get it, but The Bond Market does It's called Global #Quad3 Stagflation with a breakout in Bond Yields https://t.co/LfjSg2suV3
Inflation‑Adjusted Retail Sales Still Shrink, Q1 Sluggish
Today's "better-than-expected" retail sales numbers were still a net contraction when adjusted for inflation 🙃 There's been a sneaky pullback in the real consumer spending numbers over the past few months. Q1 off to a sluggish start https://t.co/HaUNobi6Tx
US Debt Set to Hit $64 Trillion, Calls for Convention
US national debt is projected to rise by $2.4 TRILLION annually over the next decade. As a result, total national debt would SURGE to $64 TRILLION. IT’S TIME FOR AN ARTICLE V CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION TO LIMIT DEBT. https://t.co/ZvvUKmkbHa
Breakeven Job Growth May Be Slightly Negative, Says Dallas Fed
Dallas Fed: Using newly available microdata that measure net unauthorized immigration through December 2025, an estimate of breakeven job growth is lower than previously thought and could be slightly negative. Monthly job change of -3,000 per month would have been...
Manufacturing Grows Third Month Amid War, Tariff Concerns
"Manufacturing sector expands for third consecutive month, but war, tariffs cause worry" "In the last two months, the prices index has increased 19.3 percentage points to reach its highest level since... June 2022." https://t.co/eKASacTNPS https://t.co/rXk8eLwXeb
Is America Really Insolvent? A Simple Economic Breakdown
Is the United States insolvent? Lemme youtubesplain: https://t.co/6Re8YEXmWA I'm trying a few new things on my YouTube channel -- trying to make economics more accessible -- and so I'm also really interested in your feedback.
US Bond Market Endures Record 68‑Month Drawdown
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 68 months, by far the longest in history. https://t.co/iK6GQkwPgq
JOLTS Data Shows Pre‑war Job Market Already Deteriorating
The JOLTS data show the job market was looking pretty bad even before Trump started his war https://t.co/LVg2o29UsS It's not likely to be getting better.
Post‑COVID Inflation Surge: More Prices Exceed 3%
New Fed paper showing that underlying inflation dynamics have shifted since COVID. Across countries, a greater share of prices are now rising >3% per year - partly because wage inflation has been persistently higher. https://t.co/1PELesrnc2
Rising Input Costs Push Index Up, Inflation Near 4%
This index "has now risen by nearly 20 points in just two months, as higher energy prices have come amid rising costs of other raw materials. On past form, it now looks consistent with headline inflation rising to 4% in...
ADP Shows Unexpected Job Surge in Health, Education, Small Firms
Higher than expected job growth via the ADP survey, mostly in health and education, and mostly among small businesses. https://t.co/QYIRSn6mQX
BofA Sees Near‑4% PCE, Higher Prices Through 2027
BofA on inflation outlook: "Headline PCE is now expected to surge ... close to 4% this quarter. ... we now project price levels at the end of next year to be 50bp above our prior forecast ... i)higher food inflation...
Mortgage Refinance Demand Drops over 40% in a Month
Weekly #mortgage refinance demand is down more than 40% in the past month https://t.co/KBjl0aRgH6 @MBAMortgage @mortgagenewsmnd #interestrates #economy
Salient Prices Like Eggs Drive Inflation Expectations
.@johnarnold it is not only tone deaf, it ignores the important academic work on “salient prices.” People attach more meaning to things they buy frequently. Take eggs, less than 1% of the consumer basket, big impact on inflation expectations. Gas...
Unprecedented Job Losses Exceed Great Recession Streak
"We've never seen anything like this…even during the Great Recession the most we had seen was 11 consecutive. It's not NO jobs created in 2025. Jobs were DESTROYED." https://t.co/TEyHYMKiKA #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/7AjP28JOhM
Post‑crisis: Labor Market Still Harsher for Low‑skill Workers
The crisis is over. Can we go back to understanding the labor market as generally worse for less educated workers now?
Household Wealth-to-Income Ratios Near Historic Peaks Globally
Household net worth as a share of income stands close to all time highs in the US, Japan and Australia --Goldman https://t.co/lb65bEX2Ii
Fed President Signals Rate Hold, Open to Adjustments
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem: “I expect the current setting of the policy rate will remain appropriate for some time.” "I could support additional easing if a greater risk of a weakening labor market becomes apparent, provided inflation and inflation...
White House Policies Hit Your Wallet Directly
Policy feels abstract right up until it lands in your budget. That’s the point: the stakes are real because White House decisions can show up as pricier gas, a bigger health bill, and higher prices on imported goods. https://t.co/JkEALd3F4O
Equities Dominate Consumer Spending Outlook, Eclipsing Oil
Why the stock market looms larger over the outlook for U.S. consumer spending than oil prices: Equities held at market value account for more than 25% of household net worth, the most on record in 80 years of data (https://t.co/hFEP95KsDI)...
ADP Jobs Beat, Oil Inventories Drop Ahead of Fed Talk
📊 Pre-Market Brief | Wed, Apr 1 ─────── 📅 MACRO DATA Crude Oil Inventories: Est 1.8 | Prior 6.9 ISM Manufacturing PMI: Est 52.3 | Prior 52.4 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Act 62 | Est 41 | Prior 66 🟢 ─────── 💰 MAG 7 EARNINGS None this week 🏛️...
US Economic Surprise Index Peaks, Analysts Underestimated Momentum
The Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index is bumping up against the highest levels since late 2023. Analysts seem to have underestimated how much momentum there was in the economy heading into the Iran war. https://t.co/qXTzGuZtlX