Unemployment Hits Historic Low Since 1971‑1998
The current unemployment rate is lower than where it was every single month from 1971 to 1998. https://t.co/VAAexazBPH
AI Cuts Payroll, Nudges U.S. Unemployment Higher
Goldman tries to quantify the net effect of AI both substituting for and augmenting U.S. employment. Their conclusion: AI substitution in occupations like phone operations and insurance claims administration have reduced monthly payroll gains by around -25K and raised the...
Today's Stubborn Inflation Driven by New Factors, Not 1970s
This chart is fine as a simple comparison of historical inflation experiences, but the current tenaciousness of inflation is due to different factors, and is happening in a different policy context, from the inflation of the late 1970s. 1/2
Jobs Flip Between Growth and Contraction 11 Months Straight
It really is incredible that jobs have alternated between growth and contraction for a record 11 months in a row. The previous record? 6 back in the last 1960s. https://t.co/ktPBF1R0Ku
Summers Wasn't Alone: Multiple Economists Warned of Inflation
It’s strange how Summers is often implicitly covered as if he were the only economist who warned about inflation in 2021 The dominant forecast was it would be transitory (there’s still debate as to whether it ended up being a really...
M2 Surges >10% Annualized, Fed Cuts Now Unlikely
While all time high gets the headline, the annualized growth rate in this latest monthly money supply report important to watch—over 10%. This makes fed rate cuts harder to see
Services PMI Could Flip Market Sentiment
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – April 6, 2026 🚨 Services data in focus today — markets watching for confirmation on growth vs slowdown 👀 🗓️ Economic Events: 1000 - ISM Services PMI (Mar): Exp 55; Prior 56 1000 - ISM Services Business Activity: Prior...
Minimum Wage Shifts Labor Outcomes for Marginal Imm
New @nberpubs: "Immigrants at the Margin: Labor Market Effects of the Minimum Wage" https://t.co/77L73xAozW https://t.co/rULy0k3oGs
U.S. Work Hours Fell After 2000 Thanks to Health Benefits
New @nberpubs: "Why Do Americans No Longer Work So Much More Than Non-Americans?" https://t.co/xbwDGmS5Ub "U.S. hours per person declined after 2000 owing mainly to the rise of government health benefits provided to the non-employed." https://t.co/8Mwr2rFs0G
ISM Services PMI Set to Dip, Employment Eases
Economic Calendar for Mon. April 6th 10:00am - ISM Services PMI (Mar): Expected 55; Prior 56 - ISM Services Employment: Expected 51.7 Prior 51.8 - ISM Services Prices: Prior 63
US Debt Crisis: Spending, Not Revenue, Is the Real Issue
$40 Trillion in debt but need more money? 🤔 If they took all of Jeff Bezos’ wealth, it would only run the U.S. government for 12 days. Most governments have a spending problem, not a revenue problem. Time to get...
US Economy Stays Strong Amid High Gas, Global Outlook Darkens
“… Despite high gasoline prices, the U.S. economy is holding up. Abroad, though, interest rates and inflation risks have shot up, fuel is being conserved, and economic forecasts are darkening…” — @greg_ip https://t.co/tifsrZ3N3S
Fed Misses 2% Inflation Target for 60 Consecutive Months
´ The US Federal Reserve has missed its 2 per cent inflation target every month for 60 months in a row.’ https://t.co/GrigzoG3zS
US External Deficits Mirror Unsustainable Domestic Borrowing
1/7 Martin Wolf, in an important piece on unsustainable current account imbalances, makes a point that most American economists miss: "the counterpart of external deficits tends to be unsustainable domestic borrowing." https://t.co/h7ob7Aac6A via @ft
Trump's $1.5T Defense Push Endangers Social Security
My take on the affect of Trump's push for higher defense spending in @FortuneMagazine: “Once you push defense to $1.5 trillion, that puts Social Security on even shakier ground." https://t.co/feois7TZug
Busy Week Ahead: ISM, FOMC Minutes, PCE, CPI
ISM Services PMI tomorrow FOMC Minutes Weds PCE Price Index Feb Thurs CPI March Fri https://t.co/osn2U4OfYf
Existing Home Sales at 1.29M, Well Below Normal
We will get this updated this week with the new existing home sales report. ...
Iran Conflict Spikes Oil, Threatens UST Long‑end Auctions
This is a high-stakes week for the bond market. The recent spike in crude prices - fueled by the conflict in Iran - will show up in March’s inflation data. The consensus on Wall Street is a headline print...
Data Centers Boost GDP, Healthcare Jobs Keep Unemployment Low
The future unfolding in plain sight: GDP growth propped up by data center construction. Low unemployment propped up by healthcare jobs. https://t.co/aADxNaQXij
Freelance Computer Workers Surge Sharply in 2025
Interesting: freelance (self-employed) computer workers have accelerated sharply in 2025. Note this is an index with a 2019 base--self-employed workers are a small fraction of computer occupations. But I wouldn't have necessarily expected this behavior. https://t.co/g6qedjNvb2
CPI to Gauge Oil Shock; Fed Minutes Hint Iran Stance
March CPI on Friday will show how the oil spike hit consumer prices. Meanwhile, Fed Minutes offer a window into policymakers' early thinking on the Iran conflict. 🟢 Open https://t.co/51FrxswWr9
Energy Shortage Drives Job Loss, Dollar Collapse, Pax End
92,000 jobs lost. Unemployment rising. The dollar cracking at its foundation. Mainstream economists are calling this a surprise. I have been warning about this for years because unlike conventional theory, my models actually include money and energy. Labor without energy is a corpse....
Mortgage Spreads High; 8% Rates Demand Booming Economy
With where mortgage spreads are at with the Fed Funds Rate, 8% rates would need a booming economy with job and wage growth picking up again Spreads got as high as 3.11% in 2023, currently at 2.11% https://t.co/25afwLqFtN
Support Equal Tax Rates, Reject $100K Filing Threshold
I agree with @vkhosla on the need to restructure the tax system including taxing capital gains at the same rate as income. But increasing the filing threshold to $100K is a terrible idea. When people don't pay taxes they have...
2026 Job
Since the bar is so low for job growth in 2026 to surpass 2025, even with normal revisions, we would still be higher than last year. https://t.co/LEfXSmvQST
Savings Surplus Flips to Spending Glut, Straining Builders
Real economy "builders" need money. They can source money from investors or consumers. Since Covid, investors and consumers had money from massive fiscal and monetary policy actions. Builders got all the money they needed from consumption plus more from...
Forward Yield Spike Signals Looming Global Debt Crisis
The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.3% (blue) and looks benign. But 10y10y forward yield (red) is 5.5% and pushing above pre-2008 levels. The global debt crisis waits for no one. Fiscal policy is out of control and geopolitical uncertainty makes...
Deficits Surge, Supply Chains Shift in Multipolar Era
2020-2026 1. We go from 3% fiscal deficits for 30-40 years to 6-8%. Bush: $150B to $400B Obama: $1.1T to $400B Trump Biden: 1.4T to $3T 2. Go from “just in time” supply chains in a unipolar world, far fewer global conflicts to a multipolar...
Health Care Wages Diverge as Cyclical Sectors Rise
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Is U.S. Wage Growth Slowing Or Not? https://t.co/uhzQRgCXXi Something strange is happening with wages in health care, while cyclical sectors are looking up. https://t.co/g4hKv2rVBo
Flawed Job Data Masks Tax Revenue Crisis
The jobs reports are not accurate and never have been. America is in SERIOUS trouble because people with jobs pay taxes, and if people don't have jobs, less tax revenue is collected, so less money for the politicians to commit fraud...
US Private Sector Jobs Shrink, Biggest Loss Since 2020
Jerome Powell: “There is effectively ZERO net job creation in the private sector.” US job growth in February has been revised down from to a total loss of -92,000 jobs to -133,000 jobs. It's the largest loss since December 2020.
Ground Beef Outpaces Minimum Wage for First Time
For the first time ever, a pound of ground beef costs more than minimum wage. That’s not just inflation. It’s the breakdown between wages and the cost of essentials. #Economy #Inflation #CostOfLiving
Inflation Ties Stocks and Bonds, Boosting Bond Yields
Inflationary regime... stocks & bonds moving together JPMAM While that means less diversification, it also means higher bond yields vs the 2010s.. when bonds zigged when stocks zagged... it's a trade-off. https://t.co/VNDHInIcmI
March Jobs Report Hides Drop in Total Hours
An overlooked aspect of the March jobs report: total hours worked actually fell in the month https://t.co/ZdEGUdFNjX
Immigration Deficit Lowers Job‑growth Breakeven Below 50k
Breakeven rate of job growth to keep the unemployment rate steady is probably under 50k... immigration (or lack thereof) is the driver.. JPMAM https://t.co/IwfJaneYQ3
Zero Job Growth Seen as Full Employment, Yet Fragile
22,500 jobs a month would have set off alarms two years ago. Today it might be fine. Fed officials are still grappling with how to explain that. “Conveying that a zero-job-growth economy is consistent with full employment is not easy,”...
Oil Prices Fuel Inflation Yet Trigger Recessionary Pullback
𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗖𝘂𝘁𝘀 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝗵 𝗪𝗮𝘆𝘀 The reporter, David Lin, asks his guest "𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 (𝗙𝗲𝗱) 𝗯𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲? His guest, Jeff Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group states that "oil cuts both ways in terms...
Neo‑con Trump Policies Spark Inflation, Hurt Bonds
While the combination of tariffs and spending cuts in 2025 proved net disinflationary (benefiting USD bond markets), the current dramatic neo-con shift under the Trump administration is the exact opposite - inflationary and negative for bonds
February U.S. Jobs Loss Deepens to 133,000
U.S. job growth for February was revised lower by 41K, from an initial estimate of -92,000 to -133,000 jobs
US Services Slip, Jobs Surge; India Manufacturing Hits 4‑year Low
🌍 Global News Update: ⦿ S&P Global US Services PMI fell to 49.8 in March 2026, signaling first contraction in over three years. ⦿ S&P Global US Composite PMI revised to 50.3 in March 2026, lowest since September 2023. ⦿ US economy added...
US Jobs Data Fuels Dollar Rise, Stocks and Bonds Dip
Stocks and bonds may fall again while the dollar gains after deceptively upbeat US jobs data. #NFP #Stocks #Dollar #Macro #Trading #IranWar https://t.co/bSlTNo7Fkg
Media Overlooked Revised February Job Loss Spike
In reporting the good jobs numbers for March, the media failed to pick up on the fact that the job losses in February were revised UP from 92,000 lost jobs to 133,000 lost jobs. https://t.co/haZXRUFU55
Use Biden’s $888 B 2025 Budget as Comparison Baseline
The base of comparison really should be Biden's $888 billion 2025 budget, not the 2026 budget, which was already a big increase.
Wall Street Rebounds; Jobs Surge, but Geopolitics Loom
Wall Street snapped its 5-week losing streak this week. S&P 500 +3.4%, Nasdaq +4.4%, Dow +3%. First positive week since the Iran war began. Then on Good Friday, a bombshell: 178,000 jobs added in March — triple the 59,000 expected....
Trump's Tariffs Accelerated US Manufacturing Job Losses
A year ago, Trump proclaimed that “Liberation Day” would be "the day American industry was reborn." Thanks to Trump's tariffs, US manufacturing job losses accelerated, shedding 108,000 jobs in 2025. TARIFF MAN = HOW TO DESTROY AMERICA'S MANUFACTURING JOBS. https://t.co/3jvtsqZiBh
White House Simplifies Tariffs, but 50% Rates Stay Punitive
After months of lobbying by companies that were unfairly hit by tariffs, the White House consolidated and simplified metals tariffs. But, tariffs remain SKY-HIGH at 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper. The admin's changes were only window dressing. Tariff rates remain punitive....
US Jobs Market Shifts From Steady Growth to Volatility
Taking the data at face value, the US labor market appears to have transitioned from a period of sustained, stable growth into a phase of significant volatility. Per the FT chart below, recent reports are characterized by sharp swings between job...
Feb Job Gains Signal Recovery, Wage Growth Slows
The big jobs rebound (275k in Feb) is mostly a recovery from Jan's storms & strikes. Wage growth cooled, which is key. Labor market looks solid but normalizing. JobsReport
Spreads Peak Months After Recession Starts, Not Before
History says spreads peak 5-7 months after recessions start. Not before. By the time the NBER calls it, the move is done. $JOJO uses leading signals, not lagging labels. https://t.co/aEqM5MShko
March Jobs Rise, Participation Dips; Fed Stays Patient
March jobs report is a mixed bag. Blockbuster +303K payroll growth shows strength, but a dip in labor force participation signals some underlying softness. The Fed will likely stay patient. JobsReport