US Economy Social Media and Updates
US Economy Social Media and Updates
Fed doves have happy tears, since over 40% of CPI inflation is due to shelter and wage growth is slowing down. Rising rental vacancies mean it's unlikely to see breakaway inflation again. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #inflation #economics #realestate #chartdaddy
Good to see Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey go sub-6% too. Not because it changes the math much, but because it will result in more positive news headlines and boost consumer sentiment. The type of stuff that can get prospective home...
In order to have successful capital markets, you see the same things happen again and again. Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, you have to keep interest rates not so high that they crush the debtor, without having them...
Today’s podcast covers the state of the union housing talking points and the recent home price index reports @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #mortgagerates #economics #chartdaddy
The most stimulative portions of the Big Beautiful Bill are about to hit over the next couple of months and will be adding some juice to consumer spending over the next few months
Case in point: @eBay announced today it’s cutting 800 jobs, or 6% of its full-time employees. HQ San Jose, CA If you’re one of one of them, do you collect UE benefits from CA or get paid 114% more to drive @Uber...
A mix of views around whether the recent rise in unemployment was structural or cyclical, there was greater agreement around the role of policies in the rise in young NEETs and youth unemployment: 47% of panel agreed that this was...
Economic Calendar for Thurs. Feb 26th 8:30am - Initial jobless claims: Expected 216k; Prior 206k - Continuing Jobless Claims: Expected 1.86M; Prior 1.869M 10:00 - Fed’s Bowman speaks 1:00pm - 7 Year Note Auction: Prior 4.018%
People keep telling me I'm wrong about the US fiscal boost this year, but the IMF just published this.. thats bigger than our estimates btw https://t.co/HKAuw6DenI
Interesting chart. Job postings for software engineers have picked up since vibe coding became a thing: https://t.co/vyIZW909Nh
A very compelling chart. The recent rally in metals and mining has not yet evolved into a material inflationary impulse, in my view. Markets still seem to be dismissing that possibility — even though history suggests otherwise. https://t.co/FhHZJUOI67
The history of homeprices going back over 80 years. It's rare for nominal home prices to fall; it's super rare to have a massive nominal housing price crash. Home prices are sticky unless you have massive supply and distress sales...
Credit Card Delinquencies, Balances, Burden, Credit Limits, and Collections in Q4 2025. Despite the wailing about tapped-out, struggling and cracking consumers, the credit card delinquency rate dropped to multi-year low https://t.co/gJZVHiZnW4 https://t.co/tWcbzsEi0k
New @ClevFedResearch paper finds US tariff hikes & tariff uncertainty increase consumers' inflation expectations, while uncertainty "strongly discourage[s] consumers from buying durables, especially cars and big-ticket items." https://t.co/IhbQU2Pc4M https://t.co/6C1XUPmqch
Is this still a K-shaped economy? This was a hot topic of conversation at the #NABE conference this week. In 2026, I told @hdubroff that I see more of "E" shaped economy. https://t.co/rYUsXmGuCy https://t.co/JHiwnPutqZ
Americans are exhausted by prices that remain far above pre-pandemic levels. From a year earlier: Coffee +18.3%. Ground beef +17.2%. Electricity +6.3%. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/b1uvKYJPHt
This is an extreme spike in the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index – Flatbed (STRIF.USA) from 2018–2026. A 40% rejection rate means: * Strong industrial throughput * Tight labor + equipment capacity * Improving pricing power in physical economy * Early/mid expansion phase dynamics It usually leads: *...
Hutchins Fiscal Impact Measure: Local, state & federal fiscal policy shaved 1 pct pt from GDP growth in Q4. We expect it will be *add* 2.6 pts in Q1 as effects of shutdown are reversed, will be roughly neutral...
Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signals greater concern about the institution's independence than the more anodyne statements typically offered by his colleagues when the subject comes up He says there's an ongoing threat and the outcome is genuinely uncertain https://t.co/ntwkE73UgE
Big banks retreated from mortgages after the 2008 housing crash—now this Fed governor wants them back After a decade+ of "migration" toward nonbanks, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman says it's time to reconsider policy My latest for ResiClub: https://t.co/6IY86V9OTy
Interesting research paper from the BIS and Bank of Korea on the interplay between excessive household debt and consumer spending https://t.co/inCiWR5V6F
🏗️The places that built the most housing during the pandemic have the fewest bidding wars, and the places that neglected to build have the most. 🏘️ See percent of homes selling above list price by county. https://t.co/giPGgmFuBr
My positioning & stance update on Gold , Dollar , US indexes & Bitcoin 🧵
Mortgage demand to buy houses just plummeted to its lowest level in 10 months. The MBA mortgage purchase index is now at 150. 57% crash from pandemic peak. 40% drop from 2018-2019 levels. It's the biggest homebuyer strike ever. https://t.co/FVB0HYY4bc
People seem to have forgotten that workers are consumers. Rising real wages is pro worker too, even if some tasks get replaced.
The rolling 40-day (2 month) correlation between $USDJPY and the US-Japan 2-year yield spread has rebound to a stronger positive (+0.6) after 10 months of inversion. Will it just start syncing up or will this gap in carry standing close?...
The policies of the Fed impact economies globally, but that doesn’t mean other central banks have to follow the Fed. If the Fed were to implement surprise rate cuts, the Bank of England should arguably do the exact opposite. My latest...
Not surprising to see some cheapening of very rich 5s before the auction later today. 2s5s10s up a few bps from Monday's Citrini low. Interesting to see if the move has legs post-auction https://t.co/ZQjjNm6NwT
Yes, stocks in the US have been choppy so far this year. But looking at a four-year Presidential cycle, this is actually quite common for mid-term years. https://t.co/gX328BtAzw
"How U.S.-Centric is the Inflation Problem?" https://t.co/536nv3SjWg "whatever common elements are shared by globally traded consumer and business goods have been augmented by country-specific decisions in the United States, Germany, and Canada." https://t.co/QflnhV9CDt
"In the name of both prosperity and world peace there are few steps that we could take which would contribute more than a complete move toward free trade." -- Milton Friedman https://t.co/5HsJX8FJPm
$2.55 Iowa average https://t.co/qKoxDrbRtX, but Senator Ernst promises to make up the difference compared to what you'll pay
Trump says he wants to lower taxes on the rich and raise them on middle and working class
My view in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump's tariffs: "Only 181,000 total jobs were created in the US last year, down from 2.2 million in 2024. Contrary to the Spinmeister-in-Chief, tariffs are, when it comes to jobs, a flop." https://t.co/LtaB5ShdIl
My views in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump’s upcoming State of the Union: "With the tariff gun at their heads, the Tariff Man asserts that he can force them to sign on the dotted line, even if it is under duress." https://t.co/rfie6YbkBa
The stock market is a great wealth builder over the long run, as long as you can resist panicking during downturns. https://t.co/o8C03pFJqy
My views in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump’s upcoming State of the Union: "The use of tariffs as threats and leverage is nowhere to be found in Dale Carnegie’s 1936 classic How to Win Friends and Influence People.” https://t.co/rfie6YbkBa
Randall Guynn, a prominent Wall Street lawyer, will become the next director of supervision and regulation at the Federal Reserve, effective March 8 w/@AidenReiter https://t.co/WIPFQbILxz
One of the OBBBA's signature provisions aims to let some hourly employees keep more of the pay earned during their most grueling workweeks. Although the White House has characterized this provision as "no tax on overtime," experts say it's "not...
#NABE2026 Chicago Fed Pres Austan Goolsbee third day of policy meeting. More worried about the risks to inflation, especially the persistence of core service sector inflation, which shouldn’t be affected by tariffs. This is after stripping out shelter costs....
For @stripe's 2025 annual letter released today, we dug into a ton of macro data. One pattern jumps out: the economy is sorting winners and losers faster than before. As @collision put it—”the sorting machine is whirring faster”. /1
Elon Musk and the AI Solution to U.S. Debt: A Critical Analysis Link to the complete analysis - https://youtu.be/zxkw2w4-WpQ?si=iZFhj_AoZ_c3m3te
This is probably where the focus of a lot of efforts needs to go, as much as it might seem small-bore / Clintonian Appetite for tax increases very low. Appetite for spending changes (up or down) also not high. Improving govt...
I just hope if we really do end up back at ZIRP that we don’t debate the Fed buying gold or ETF’s, that was bad discourse.
If the unemployment rate hits 6% with stocks down 25-30% (roughly the thresholds when we got TARP/CARES Act), we’ll get a big fiscal policy response. But it won’t be actual TARP or CARES, it depends on what the crisis looks...
This is why I think the @Citrini7 scenario is plausible: We demonstrated that we have the power to minimize employment disruptions associated with big supply shocks and shifts in demand... ...but everyone decided they hated it.
Helpful thought-experiment, but undersells: 1) competition & demand elasticity for cheaper code, 2) how fast monetary & fiscal pol move at 10% U3, & 3) wealth effects/reinvestment bolstering productivity & offsetting wage loss. Tail risk yes. Base case no. https://t.co/BDbOcr4sHF
Waller on Monday pushes back on the idea that the ongoing productivity boom is currently being driven by AI. "A.I. at some point will clearly kick in down the road, but I don't think it's going to be in the...
Potential pivot by @federalreserve Gov Chris Walller - IF the next retail sales & labor data continue to show signs of further improvement, like we saw in Jan, then would support a pause in rate cuts after dissenting in Jan....
Waller, a Fed governor who dissented against January's rate cut pause, said he is open to holding rates steady in March if the labor market continues to stabilize. He also doesn't expect the Supreme Court ruling to impact his rate...
