Job‑changer Wage Premium Resurfaces as Growth Accelerates
It's a low churn labor market ... but ... The wage premium for job changers that disappeared in 2024 appears to have returned. Wage growth ticked up to 3.8% for the 3-months ended March for job stayers (vs 3.5% in December). Wage growth for job changers rose to 5% from 4% https://t.co/mxo2M4vnVD
Falling Real Disposable Income Caps Inflation Potential
Real disposable income... not trending well... hard to have big inflation with that line going down.. https://t.co/ifjcNPDQ6w @augurinfinity https://t.co/TAgJqWN1nY
Q4 GDP 0.5%, Weak Q1,
0.5% Q4 GDP.. weak Q1 GDP tracking... but 2026 recession (technical recession) chance not high at 26% @kalshi https://t.co/rx3rkIwTm6 https://t.co/2QWbRgAEpj
Inflation Surge: CPI Expected 3.3%, Dollar Under Pressure
The Feb PCE deflator - Fed's favorite inflation measure - held at 2.8% earlier. That's well above the 2.0% target...before energy prices sored. Tomorrow's March CPI update is expected to accelerate from 2.4% in Feb to 3.3%. Here's the #Dollar...
2026 PCE Durables Prices Surge, Double 2025 Pace
2026 is already tracking to be another abnormal year for PCE durables prices, up 1.5% since December, double the pace at this same point in 2025. Over the prior 5 non-pandemic years, durables prices were up 0.3% on average through...
Oil Shock Inflation Temporary, Fed Should Keep Cutting Rates
Kevin Hassett tells @MariaBartiromo the inflation from the oil-price shock will be temporary and should allow the Fed to continue cutting interest rates: "There are a lot of people who are currently at the Federal Reserve that understand that, that this...
Fed's 2% Target Deemed Myth; No Near-Term Hikes
JPMorgan’s Bob Michele went on to say that the Fed’s 2% target is increasingly a “myth,” and that US central bankers are tacitly accepting a higher rate as acceptable. So even if inflation stays sticky, he doesn’t see rate hikes...
Core CPI Must Rescue Markets Amid 0.9% Crude Spike
CPI hedging dominating now after 30y auction. Crude driven headline expected to print at an eye-popping 0.9% so it will be up to core to save us
US Jobless Claims Rise Amid Growing Middle‑East Conflict
The US Initial Jobless Claims just released at 219K, INCREASING from 203K the prior week. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN IS QUIETLY BLEEDING INTO THE US LABOR MARKET. https://t.co/Mab6oRpgWw
GDPNow's 5.4% Forecast Was Way Off
Remember the administration crowing when the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model said in early Jan that Q4 GDP growth was 5.4%? Latest official estimate: 0.5%. Moral: Ignore "tracking" models. And Trump's econ team.
Early-Year Releases Surpass Expectations Across the Board
It’s still early in the year but it seems like most of the big releases have been beating expectations.
Pre‑war Data Shows Slowing Spending, Rising Inflation
The economy is not looking very good just now. Spending growth is down and inflation is up. And that's pre-war data https://t.co/ougoyhN3Ef
Q4 2025 GDP Growth Stalls to 0.5%, Tariffs Blamed
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. That’s DOWN from 4.4% the prior quarter. TRUMP TARIFFS = ECONOMIC WRECKING BALL. https://t.co/Rm9so1qJXE
Q4 GDP Slows to 0.5%, February Income Stalls
Some bad economic numbers came out today. 4th quarter GDP growth was revised down to 0.5%. And income growth was down in Feb. https://t.co/GBM4v964nK https://t.co/Hxd5nWNidS
Trump Pushes Rate Cuts, Fed Resists Higher Interest
Trump and the FED. They are fighting over interest rates. Trump wants them to go down drastically. The FED wants to keep them higher. Listen to Matthew Piepenburg his vision here: https://t.co/DjayphsEa4
Supply‑driven Market Renders Rate Hikes Ineffective, Boosting Hard Assets
Rates down. Dollar down. Commodities and Latam stocks surging. A reminder: This is a supply-driven market — hiking rates won’t solve the problem. If anything, a higher cost of debt only worsens it by tightening access to capital. And to be fair: The US...
10‑Year Yield Above 4.4% Proves Unmanageable
Well that is a problem given that in the last couple weeks, the MOVE Volatility Index and US policymakers’ actions (TACO’d every single time 10y hit 4.4%) empirically showed that the US & world cannot handle >4.4% on the 10y. #YouDownWithYCCYeahYouKnowMe
Deficit Shrinkage Far Smaller Than
In the real world, the deficit fell by $56 billion last year, less than one-tenth of what Kevin claims, but he did get the direction right this time, unlike his claims about inflation falling
Shrinking Workforce Caps Real GDP Growth to 1‑2%
You don’t get to 1% labor force growth with two decades of sub-replacement level births per woman and negative net migration. You just can’t. You actually have a shrinking labor force, since it’s aging, too. That means 1%-2% real GDP...
February Real Income Turns Negative, Signaling Economic Strain
Important point from Ben -- Americans' income was already **negative** in February once you adjust for inflation. People were having to dip into savings or turn to credit cards to fund their spending, even before gas prices jumped to $4. This is...
Treasury Yields Surge Above 4.9% Amid CPI, Auction Pressure
Between tomorrow's CPI and today’s 30-year auction, Treasuries are feeling the heat. That ceasefire euphoria has already faded - 30s are back north of 4.90%
PCE Inflation Stays at 2.8%, Exceeding Fed Target
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index held steady in February at 2.8%/yr. This is ABOVE the FED’s inflation target of 2%/yr and the February forecast of 2.6%/yr. INFLATION = THE GENIE THE FED JUST CAN'T PUT BACK IN THE BOTTLE....
US Consumer Prices Rose 0.4% in February
JUST IN: Consumer prices in the US increased 0.4% in February, per the PCE index
PCE Confirms 3% Inflation Amid Recent Shock Waves
Today's PCE report showed once again this is a 3% inflation 🌎. On Facts vs Feelings this week, we discussed the 5 big inflation shocks the past few years. https://t.co/dbovthdUvY
Core PCE Model Hits Near‑exact Forecast
Going to give myself a little pat on the back for core PCE model at +0.37% and actual print +0.367%
Fed's Inflation Woes Predate Iran War, Stalled at 2%
NEW: Long before the Iran war began, the Fed had an inflation problem, as Feb's PCE data confirms today. Progress on reaching the 2% target had essentially stalled out, while a closely-watched metric tracking ex-housing services inflation was stuck well...
Core PCE Climbs, Fed Should Tighten Despite Energy Shock
In February, PCE less food and energy up .4% for the second straight month--12-month change remained 3.0%. Before Mideast energy shock Fed should have a tightening bias https://t.co/CuTWT2XgUi
Spending Surges While Income Falls, Spring Outlook Uncertain
JUST IN: American consumers were clearly continuing to spend (orange bars). February was the strongest spending since August. But take a look at personal income (blue bars). It was actually negative in February. Income has not always kept up with spending...
Income Dips, Consumer Spending Holds Steady in February
"Personal income decreased $18.2 billion (0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in February ... personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $103.2 billion (0.5 percent)." Income below expectations (spending as expected) https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-february-2026
PCE Inflation Data Set to Drive Market Volatility
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – April 9, 2026 🚨 PCE inflation day — this is THE key macro read for the Fed 👀 expect volatility 🗓️ Economic Events: 0830 - PCE m/m (Feb): Exp 0.4%; Prior 0.3% 0830 - PCE y/y (Feb): Exp 2.8%;...
Refinancing $8 Trillion Will Spike U.S. Interest Costs
Hey @grok, what happens to interest payments when the U.S. government has to refinance $8 trillion of debt next year at higher interest rates?
Swap Market Predicts Brief 4% Inflation Spike, Then 3%
Inflation may reach 4% for a fleeting moment this year.. but then back near 3% in rather short order, according to the swap market. If you disagree, go out and trade it. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/mN7udXNlCV
Buffett & I Reject Fed’s 2% Inflation Goal
Warren Buffett doesn't believe in the Fed's 2% inflation target. Neither do I. If the goal is "price stability," - why ANY inflation? That 2% compounded is robbing your purchasing power. Here's a thought: What if prices should actually go DOWN? Everyone...
Core PCE Climbs 0.4% for Third Consecutive Month
"Wall Street forecasters estimate the core PCE index (due Thursday) rose 0.39% in February, which would round to 0.4% for the third straight month" -Nick Timiraos, WSJ
Pre‑crisis US Deficits and Debt Issuance Stayed Below 2% GDP
Before the global financial crisis, in 06 and 07, the US fiscal deficit was under 2 percent of GDP and note issuance was under 1 pp of GDP in 07. That was also the time of peak...
Economic Trends Echo Past Cycles, Not Exact Repeats
Took my inspiration from Jackson Browne’s 1977 hit Running on Empty. History doesn’t repeat, but often rhymes. https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2026/april-2026-economic-compass.html
Fed Ignoring Small Businesses Amid Crushing Interest Rates
"Small businesses are choking on high interest rates. Job insecurity that comes out of of the New York fed, just down the street where – from where we are right now, the Fed is not listening to small businesses, and...
Fed Misses 2% Target 60 Months, Global Inflation Persists
According to the FT, the FED has MISSED its 2% inflation target for 60 STRAIGHT MONTHS. Across the world, 3 out of 4 developed economies and 1 in 2 emerging economies are missing their targets as well. THE GLOBAL INFLATION GENIE REMAINS...
Liquidity and ISM Metrics All Trending up Globally
Total Global Liquidity is rising Global M2 is rising US Total Liquidity is rising US M2 is rising China Total Liquidity is rising ISM is rising Try not to over think it.
Fed Flags Rising Inflation, Labor Risks Amid Iran Conflict
Fed officials see higher risk in inflation and labor market, while the Iran war clouds outlook: FOMC minutes @seekingalpha https://t.co/38nIdN2Imk
2‑Year Yield Near Historic Tightness at +0.14%
The 2yr yield is currently just 14bps above the Fed Funds Rate That's historically tight - it has averaged +0.3ppts since 1976 @sonusvarghese https://t.co/lbr63DqekD
Fed Chair Choice Won’t Drive Mortgage Rates, Here’s Why
I've heard from Redfin agents that some homebuyers are waiting for President Trump's pick for Fed Chair to lower mortgage rates before they buy. In this video I explain where that logic goes wrong and what actually moves mortgage rates: https://t.co/x7Qk1wyckH
FOMC Minutes Show Sharp RMO Cut,
FOMC minutes confirm substantial reduction in RMO in April and a reserve average expectation of 3TN. Probs still grow soma 20BN per month tho. Do the plumbers among us agree that they will full stop RMO's if a when...
US Job Loss Signals End of American Hegemony
Economic signals flashing red: US shed 92k jobs in February (vs +60k forecast), unemployment to 4.4%. Potential NATO withdrawal, Iran no-deal exit imminent. Root issue: Post-WWII dollar supplanting pound inflated currency, favoring finance over manufacturing - 80 years running. Current policies...
Fed Minutes Reveal Split on Iran Risk, Lean Toward Hikes
March's Fed minutes show broad support for a patient approach to forthcoming rate decisions, but splintering views over what the biggest risk from the Iran war will be. A vast majority of policymakers now expect slower progress toward the 2%...
Fed Sees Slower Inflation Progress Amid Tariffs, Oil, Fragile Expectations
The Fed minutes showed "the vast majority" of officials thought inflation progress could be slower than expected, driven by three overlapping concerns: tariff effects on goods prices that may take longer to fade, oil prices bleeding into core inflation, and...
Yield Curve Flip Signals Growth Risks Amid Fed Tightness
10Y–2Y yield curve keeps grinding lower, but the type of flattening has shifted from “bear” (short rates up) to “bull” (long rates getting bid). That suggests the bond market is growing more cautious about US economic growth, while the Fed...
Macro Data Deluge Competes with US‑Iran Tensions
Next week's macro docket is nuts. The IMF will update its WEO; China Q1 GDP; Bank earnings start and the Fed Beige Book will inform the Apr 29 FOMC decision (among other many other listings). Are we going to be...
PMI Expansion Triggers Market Risk‑On Spree Since 2003
This has a 100% record. Every single time in the last 23 years that PMI has entered expansion, after contraction, it has signalled the start of a heavy risk on period for markets. I've used Russell 2000 here to take us back...
Strong Job Numbers Spark Rate‑cut Debate, Wage Growth Key
Low jobless claims and even job growth at 33,000 raise the question of rate cuts, as long as wage growth remains above 3%