US Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low, Employment Near 2008 Lows
Not only did US consumer confidence fall to a record low in the latest UMich survey, but the employment component deteriorated to 41 from 52, just 1 pt from matching the lowest since 2008, via @pboockvar https://t.co/lACAKTyttL https://t.co/gblJzEGApU
Fed Builds Detailed Tariff Dataset to Gauge Price Impact
Pro-tariff commentators: Look, we imposed tariffs and there was no fundamental change in the inflation trend line Careful Fed analysis: Our approach to assess the effects of these new U.S. tariffs on consumer prices accounts for their sequential introduction and leverages...
BEA's Next Move: Legal Services CPI Drop vs PPI
There was a large fall in CPI legal services. Now the question is whether BEA will use this in the PCE, where it would cut about-3.5bps from the core rate, or whether they will use the PPI (which they prob...
War Data Reveals Soaring Inflation, Explained in Two Minutes
We just got the first hard economic data showing the effects of the war, and it shows inflation surging. Lemme take two minutes to explain what it all means while talking into a baby koala's butt. https://t.co/uYzeWmSssj
US Sentiment Hits Record Lows Across Multiple Surveys
america's not ok three separate surveys -- the umich consumer sentiment survey, the general social survey, and the gallup world happiness survey -- all put US self-reported sentiment at record-low levels https://t.co/RHx0k3LLK1
Tariffs and Rising Oil Prices Fuel Dual Inflation Surge
A careful look at goods prices from RBC: "beneath the surface, the ramifications of tariffs are building, and spiking oil prices will add to pre-existing tariff price pressures with both core and headline inflation rising in tandem" https://t.co/s3UBEqwL6N https://t.co/3ATUrAvoZg
CPI Hits 3.3% Confirming Inflation’s Stubborn Rise
The U.S. Consumer Price Index jumped from 2.4%/yr in February to 3.3%/yr in March. That didn't surprise me. The three-month annualized CPI back in February was precisely 3.3%/yr. As I've been saying, the Fed is not going to be able to put...
Stagnant Wages Can't Keep Pace with Rising Prices
The reason it feels hard to get ahead right now is because it's hard to get ahead right now. Wages are barely keeping up with prices, and prices are just starting to heat up. https://t.co/Lb4BnQl6Un
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low Since 1961
This month's Michigan index of consumer sentiment is at a historic low of 47.6. By way of perspective, it's so bad that pollsters have to adjust the Y axis on their chart that goes all the way back to 1961. https://t.co/3lnVNHVdpQ
Fed Accepts Low Job Growth, Won’t Tolerate Wage Surge
The war has undeniably complicated things. Initially, the Fed aimed to dismiss the rise in Goods PCE inflation as a temporary blip until it passed. However, they are now starting to accept the reality of low job growth as the...
US Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low Amid Iran War
Americans are not happy with the war in Iran. Consumer sentiment just fell to a record low in April. The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers has data back to 1952. The 47.6 reading in April is lower than the tariffs last...
Every Trump Policy Proves Inflationary, Says Analyst
Dog-walking and Kernenfreude aside, all of Trump's policies have been--to one degree or another--inflationary. War: inflationary Deficit: inflationary Tariffs: inflationary Politicizing the Fed/loose money advocacy: inflationary Immigration: inflationary Cuts to renewables: inflationary Corruption: inflationary Trump cheerleaders will mumble something about the deregulation fairy and the productivity fairy...
Pomp Dismisses CPI Data, Demands Immediate Fed Cut
CPI drops one tenth of 1% Pomp: Tariffs work, deflation is happening, the Fed needs to immediately cut to 0. CPI rises 6 tenths of a %. Pomp: 'The CPI is fake' https://t.co/xH6v2pB7Kh
CPI Trend Indicator Remains Bullish for S&P 500
Today's CPI report was in line, with the core better than expected. Our long-term CPI trend indicator doesn't care about economists' expectations or excluding short-term moves in volatile sectors. It simply compares the headline CPI to its 6-month average. It...
March CPI Reveals Direct Cost of Trump's War
The March CPI gives us the first direct measure of the cost of Trump's war https://t.co/ffGoUMp3S3
Why Wages Stagnated and How to Reverse It
The eternally-wise @arindube has an important new book out on why wages have stagnated over the past generation or two, and what we can do to un-stagnate them. Check out his essay in Time unpacking this https://t.co/OoEwnOrBXe
Bond P/E Triangle Signals Potential 4.5% Yield Spike
If we invert the 10-year bond yield we get a “P/E” ratio for bonds. The chart below shows that since the 2022 rate reset, the bond P/E has been stuck in a tight triangle. That triangle could be a base,...
Fed Fooled World Into Ignoring 4% Inflation
The greatest trick the Fed ever pulled was convincing the world 4% inflation didn't exist. https://t.co/2nQtRmlH9U
Real‑time Shelter Shows Zero Inflation, Official CPI Overstated
Big moves in CPI focused on oil and commodity impacts Shelter continues to be a place where real world indicators are much lower than official stats. Our real time shelter indicator over trailing 12m shows 0 price increase vs official shelter which...
Anchored Inflation Expectations Reduce Fed Urgency on Oil Shocks
For a thorough answer to this question, I would highly recommend reading Bernanke's 2004 speech on this subject. Especially this part: "The public's expectation that inflation will remain low minimizes the second-round effects of oil price increases, which (in a virtuous...
March CPI Jumps to 3.3%, Fuel Fuels Surge
Consumer prices were up 3.3% in March from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Friday, much hotter than February’s gain of 2.4% and driven by higher fuel prices. https://t.co/6hdNDDIjdn via @WSJ
March CPI Spikes to 3.3%, Fed Cut Odds Zero
Overall US CPI moved up to 3.3% in March, the highest level since April 2024. The odds of a Fed rate cut this month: 0% https://t.co/LVl4ndgw8H
Core Inflation Stable, Yet Energy Shock Drives Airfare Surge
Core inflation in March was relatively muted despite a massive surge in overall inflation due to the Iran war. But there are signs that the energy shock is rippling across the economy. Airfares, for example, notched a 2.7% gain for...
Energy Spikes Lift CPI 0.9%; Core Steadies at 0.2%
An eye-popping 0.9% *monthly* rise in the CPI was driven mainly by rising energy prices. Core inflation rose a more sedate 0.2% in March. https://t.co/547aq6hkvo
US Inflation Hotter Yet Below Forecast, Oil Drop Helps
⚠️ US inflation 🔥hotter than prior month Cooler than forecast 🥶 With Oil Drop, inflation fears easing CPI MoM 0.9% in line (Prev 0.3%) CPI YoY 3.3% (Forecast 3.4%, Prev 2.4%) Core CPI MoM 0.2% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2%) Core CPI YoY 2.6% (Forecast...
Fuel Oil Soars 44%, Used Cars Slip 3%
Price changes over last year (March CPI report) Fuel Oil: +44.2% Gasoline: +18.9% Gas Utilities: +6.4% Electricity: +4.6% Transportation: +4.1% Food away from home: +3.8% Medical Care: +3.7% Overall CPI: +3.3% Shelter: +3.0% Food at home: +1.9% New Cars: +0.5% Used Cars: -3.2%
US Inflation Near Forecast, Boosts Rate Mean‑Reversion Play
The US inflation report was clearly impacted by the Hormuz crisis, but it once again came very close to the Nowcast IQ (https://t.co/00SY5qimgl) estimate, just 4 bps off on core and slightly more on headline. Our dovish lean was also...
Gasoline CPI Hits Record Rise; Supercore Climbs 0.18%
-Gasoline CPI up the most on record -Supercore CPI MoM +0.18%, now 3.14% YoY h/t @livesquack @macromicrome
CPI Meets Forecasts; Core Inflation Eases Below Expectations
• CPI: +0.9% MoM (est. +0.9%) • CPI: 3.3% YoY (est. 3.3%) • Core CPI: +0.2% MoM (est. +0.3%) • Core CPI: 2.6% YoY (est. 2.7%)
Gas CPI Component Spikes 21.2%, Biggest Rise Since 1967
Biggest monthly rise in the gas index component of CPI since 1967 - up 21.2%. The fuel oil component is up 30% https://t.co/3U67sTDxMt https://t.co/HDIylsibXc
March Inflation Hits 3.3% as Energy Prices Surge
JUST IN: Inflation soared in March to 3.3% y/y--> the highest annual rate since May 2024. The war in Iran is squeezing middle income and lower income households. **Inflation in March alone rose 0.9%. That’s the biggest one-month jump since June...
March CPI Rises Modestly, Inflation Eases Below Expectations
"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March ... The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in March." CPI 3.3% YoY, Core 2.6% YoY Slightly less...
Higher‑than‑expected CPI Likely Rattles Markets
CPI Inflation out at 8:30. The expected number is 3.4% vs 2.4%. How will the market react? 🤔
US PMI March: Broad Growth, Slowing Expansion Across Sectors
US sector PMIs: "March data pointed to higher levels of business activity in five out of seven US sectors, but in almost all cases the pace of expansion slowed since the previous month." -S&P Global
US Inflation Remains Tame Despite Oil Price Spike
How bad is the US inflation picture? The spike in oil prices will push up March CPI later today, but - under the hood - inflation is well behaved. Yesterday's PCE reading for February showed core services inflation (blue) slowing....
Final GDP Numbers Signal Troubling Economic Outlook
"Even though we had to dust off the final read on GDP, what it told me…is not good." https://t.co/B12qnALWAS #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth https://t.co/pqjvjdKsks
Labor Market Outlook Spotlights Expanding Gig Economy Trends
The Weekly Quill — The Gladiator Gig — The QI Research Labor Market Outlook https://t.co/HZXa8upTEl #federalreserve #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/aqsKO388pR
Higher Oil Prices Set to Spike CPI, Live Trade
Today we'll see the first impact of higher oil prices on CPI. The news could rock the markets like no other piece of fundamental data. We are going to trade it LIVE and see if we can get FUNDED in one trade. Join...
Tariffs Push Inflation Up, Cut Fiscal Revenues
Remember tariffs? They are the main reason inflation remains above target, having added 0.8% to goods inflation. They are fuelling fragmentation and supply chain pressure. Oh, and fiscal revenues are running 25% below projections, and falling. Other than that, tariffs are great....
Goldman: 10% Gas Price Rise Boosts Inflation
Goldman on what a 10% increase in natural gas prices means for inflation > https://t.co/RDkqRBzqV2
US Debt Costs Remain High, Slightly Less Ugly
It’s ugly, but slightly less ugly: US Government Interest Payments, Tax Receipts, Average Interest Rate on the Debt, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q4 2025 https://t.co/DGqm2fqkjX https://t.co/HaOX0c5eRE
Six‑Month Core PCE Inflation Hits Biggest Rise Since June
Six-Month Core PCE Inflation (still before Iran War) Jumps by Most since June 2024. The Fed Needs to Pay Attention. “Market-Based Core PCE price index,” which excludes the imputed housing components, spiked by the most since Feb 2023 https://t.co/KOLueRyxu5 https://t.co/DPUqjECgON
Tariffs Account for Full Core Goods Inflation, Adding 0.8%
Will just say, this is about 3x the 0.3pp estimate that some Fed officials, including Gov Waller, had in the summer of 2025.
Fed Faces Record $245 Billion Cumulative Loss
⚠️The Fed's losses are MASSIVE: The Fed's cumulative losses sit at near a RECORD $245 billion. This represents the gap between what the Fed pays commercial banks in interest on their reserves and what it earns on its bond holdings. 👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-federal-reserve-s-cumulative-losses-are-massive
Core Inflation Hides the True Rise in Living Costs
Ouch…. Government inflation data *excluding* food and energy. Now imagine what the real number looks like. https://t.co/TK6XDWuZDb
Ground Beef Prices Surge Over 20% YoY, Hitting Affordability
Ground beef prices CONTINUE TO SOAR. Prices are higher than during the pandemic and up over 20% from a year ago. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/20cGSN0AIn
US Labor Participation Hits 1977 Low, Threatening Growth
US labor-force participation fell to 61.9% in March, the lowest since 1977, excluding the pandemic episode. WORK IS BECOMING UNFASHIONABLE. FEWER WORKERS = SLOWER GROWTH. https://t.co/gyKlvb212z
Non‑residential Investment Barely up 2.4%
Non-residential investment increased at just a 2.4% rate in the 4th quarter. Good thing Trump keeps talking about that $18 trillion in foreign investment coming in, otherwise no one would know anything about it.
Dallas Fed: Feb PCE Inflation at 1.
The Dallas Fed trimmed mean inflation gauge suggests firm February PCE inflation reflected larger increases in a smaller subset of items. Trimmed mean PCE inflation printed at a 1.8% annualized rate in February. The 12-month reading fell to 2.3%, the lowest since...
Trump Calls U.S. “Hottest Country” Amid Economic Slump
Pretty funny how with incomes lagging, and U.S. growth slowing to a trickle, Trump still claims we're the "hottest country." Maybe that's a weather forecast due to global warming.