Housing Bust May Fuel Fed’s Push for Productivity Boom
One interesting cross-current in the mkt is watching the top of the housing market and the commensurate generational drag it could have on inflation. This bust could be the political capital the Fed needs to easy into a productivity boom. Notice the sectors that are showing relative strength vs. relative weakness here. Everyone is talking about inflation picking up but ignoring the disinflationary sectors in a productivity boom.
Higher Oil Prices Need Weak Labor Market to Spare Inflation
We have had elevated oil prices before without much impact on core inflation, but back in 2011-2014, the labor market was softer, and wage growth was much lower with lower nominal growth https://t.co/sgut5B2XBG
US Deficit Not Caused by Dollar, Says Obstfeld
Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollar Hugely important NEW essay by Maury Obstfeld @PIIE ahead of this week's G7/G20 global imbalances focus. https://t.co/sWxu77W2qk
Fed Still Plans Rate Cuts Despite Geopolitical Uncertainty
I predicted in a couple interviews the Fed will LOWER interest rates this year, not raise them. Now March minutes show... "Federal Reserve officials still expect to lower interest rates this year, even with high uncertainty from the Iran war and...
US March Home Sales Drop 3.6%, Exceed Forecast
The @wsj on the US housing market: "Home sales declined 3.6% in March, getting the crucial spring selling season off to a poor start as the high cost of housing and economic uncertainty held buyers back.... The 3.6% month over month decline...
Wireless CPI Rebounds 0.6% After Recent Declines
After showing some serious declines in recent months, the Consumer Price Index for Wireless telephone services between Feb. 2026-Mar. 2026 rose 0.6%. https://t.co/jLkjJC61OX
Resale Turnover Stays Tight Amid Slowing Sales
U.S. existing home sales by month Resale turnover remains constrained This is the raw adjusted data Table via @ResidentialClub https://t.co/5kA7jnxkLh
Inflation Expectations Become a Self‑fulfilling Macroeconomics Feedback Loop
Inflation expectations are the group chat of macroeconomics: once everyone thinks prices are going up, everyone starts acting like prices are going up, and then... surprise... prices go up. https://t.co/eXVIDDjJ4V
Lower Rates Could Reverse Expected Home Price Decline
My forecast of negative -0.62% national home price growth is at risk if rates go lower
Goldman: Oil Price Drag Neutralizes 2025 Fiscal Boost
GOLDMAN: “.. we now expect the drag on growth from higher oil prices to roughly offset the boost to growth from the 2025 fiscal bill.” #OBBBA https://t.co/tjt1bVV0cv
Regulation Cuts Bank Risk Premiums, Raises Unemployment
New @nberpubs: "The Macroeconomic Effects of Bank Regulation: New Evidence from a High-Frequency Approach" https://t.co/g4pjlheA4f "A 10 basis point regulation-induced peak reduction in bank risk premiums is accompanied by a 15 basis point peak increase in the unemployment rate." https://t.co/sclisI5Km5
90% of 2025 Tariffs Shift to U.S. Importers
New @nberpubs: "Tariffs in 2025: Short-Run Impacts on the U.S. Economy" https://t.co/Du7yk49H5l "90% of the tariffs are passed through to tariff-inclusive prices paid by U.S. importers" https://t.co/kMhPTPkojL
Energy Costs Crush Low‑income Workers, Warns Fed
Note To Fed: Energy Costs Are Crushing the Workers Who Can Least Afford It https://t.co/XD2UPmrpFN via @hedgeye
US Inflation Stays High, No Fed Cut Yet
Bond Market Message = #HFL = Higher For Longer on US Inflation with no Fed Rate Cut bailout (yet)
Energy Drives March CPI Spike, Spillover Risks Loom
WEI LI BlackRock: Energy contributed the most to March's CPI surge. How much will the bleed-through be to the rest of the economy? https://t.co/OPcuN31SGl
Core Inflation Surge Signals Fed Rate Cuts, Bond Yields Rise
First, "core" accelerated. Second, he's making a case for the Fed lowering rates. Third, and most importantly, its y/y headline Inflation that drives long-term Bond Yields and he also knows that if the Hedgeye Inflation Nowcast is correct that we'll...
Existing Home Sales Data Arriving Tomorrow, Shows Inventory Trends
Existing home sales will be released tomorrow, providing a historical view of active inventory. https://t.co/Numo1lkNMr
FOMC Chair Not Automatic With New Fed Governor
"There's a distinction between the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which is a presidential appointment with Senate confirmation, and there's a distinct job, which is the chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee. Now, historically, those have...
US Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Lows as Inflation Expectations Surge
🇺🇸 The U.S. consumer sentiment index is hitting new record lows, while inflation expectations are rising rapidly. https://t.co/j6L1c88iYA
US Interest Costs Hit 18¢ per Dollar, Set to Rise
JUST IN: In Fiscal Year 2025, the US allocated 18 cents per revenue dollar to interest payments, the highest since the 1990s and triple what it was in 2015, with CBO projecting it to reach 25 cents by 2035.
Hanke Warns Fed May Fail to Curb 3.3% Inflation
Ron Patel's @StartupFortune reports my view on the current jump in US inflation to 3.0%/yr: "[Hanke warns] that the Federal Reserve would struggle to contain inflation, noting that the three-month annualized CPI back in February was already running at precisely 3.3%." https://t.co/ACIi3dYTNk
AI Hype Fails to Boost Productivity, Says Fortune
My take on AI productivity in @FortuneMagazine: “Forget the AI bubble. Productivity was weak, and if AI had delivered, productivity would be way up. The Silicon Valley guys say GDP is going to 5% or 6%, but it’s just not happening.” SO...
Record Low Consumer Sentiment Blamed on Trump’s Tariffs
According to @UMich, the April U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index has plunged to a RECORD LOW. TRUMP'S TARIFFS & WAR MADNESS = BAD NEWS FOR THE US ECONOMY. https://t.co/UwrnBpKdKP
Tariffs Promised Jobs, Delivered 150,000 Job Losses
Trump said his tariffs would bring blue-collar jobs BACK TO THE US. Instead, it’s raised costs and DESTROYED MANUFACTURING JOBS. The US LOST 150,000 manufacturing and construction jobs last year. https://t.co/A9EMjCoeP3
Weekly Hours Worked Decline After Record High
Aggregate Weekly Hours Worked.. ticked down the last 2 months after hitting a record high @yardeni https://t.co/9PlGt22G7L
Fed Studies Tariffs' Impact on Goods Inflation
The Fed has been putting out research reports trying to assess how much goods inflation can be attributed to the tariffs. https://t.co/F4ND6acO1f https://t.co/a0LGrXd9pw
Workers Overestimate Job Risks Amid Rising Unemployment Fears
April @UMich Higher Unemployment Expectations 68%, 1 point shy of cycle high @BLS_gov NEVER revised NFP lower in 13 of last 14 months, more than the Great Recession @bankruptcywatch Ch 11 filings up 41% YoY Who am I to tell American workers they’re...
Government Claims 21% Health Insurance Cost Decline Over Five Years
The most absurd number in CPI? According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 21% over the last 5 years... https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ https://t.co/YUTqN8BlGp
2020‑22 Saw 40% of All USD Created, Ignored
Never, ever forget. Over 40% of all US dollars ever created were done so in 2020-2022. Yet, central bankers and Wall Street Research lectured against a hard asset portfolio and dramatically downplayed currency debasement. https://t.co/M7RQTCMivr
Fed Denies Error While Abandoning Public‑Interest Monetary Policy
Evidence @federalreserve denies to go down in history as greatest policy error in history. To defend a political assault, they’ve abdicated a sworn duty to make monetary policy in the “public interest.” Perhaps a fuller explanation is warranted followed by doing...
Growth Slows, Inflation Sticks: Cut Treasuries, Buy Cyclicals
Macro: growth cools; inflation sticky. Key: Fed, CPI, earnings. Risks: stagfllation, liquidity shock. Trade: shorten duration (cut long Treasuries). Outlook: volatile; favor cyclicals on dips. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Monthly Inflation Nowcast Predicts CPI Acceleration 90% Accurate
Our monthly inflation nowcast is a weekly publication which augments our existing quarterly nowcast by offering a closer look at likely trajectory of the front month Headline CPI number. As always, our process is rate-of-change centric and we have thus built...
March Inflation Hits 3.26% YoY, Near Hedgeye Forecast
Hedgeye INFLATION Nowcast Headline inflation measured +3.26% y/y in March, accelerating +85 bps sequentially. The headline number came right the midpoint of our base case (+3.31% y/y) and downside case (+3.20% y/y) estimates https://t.co/aaAC54cfuk
Fed Scrutinizes Banks' Private‑credit Exposure Amid Redemptions
JUST IN: The Fed is probing major US banks' exposure to private credit amid surging fund redemptions and mounting troubled loans.
Fed Must Explain How Current Inflation Spike Differs From 2022
JUST IN: The Fed has to clarify why this inflation spike differs from the 2022 surge.
Traders Bet Fed Will Keep Rates Steady Through 2026
JUST IN: Traders are sticking with their wagers that the Fed will hold rates steady through all of 2026.
Energy Price Surge Drives up U.S. CPI Inflation
First Wave of Energy Price Spikes Hit CPI Inflation. Energy that Americans pay for directly: Gasoline, propane, fuel oil, other fuels, utility natural gas, and electricity https://t.co/SiGQSZV2zn https://t.co/uO9XHnvFt8
Retail Spend Up 4% YoY, Accelerating Through 2026
BofA: Retail spend +4.0% y/y in Mar; accelerating through 1Q26 -General merch stays solid, little change in Grocery -Apparel up with Luxury and Discount barbell strength -Home Improvement better m/m, but still slow https://t.co/49AMBHCEuj
Restaurant Spend Growth Slows to 1.3% in March
BofA: Restaurant y/y spend growth decelerated m/m from 3.6% in February to1.3% in March https://t.co/JgRzPmGubV
Tariffs Boost Core Goods Inflation, CPI Likely to Decline
Tariffs drove the bulk of core goods inflation, added 0.8% to core PCE, a Fed study finds @seekingalpha well, CPI rate should head back down then.. that's good https://t.co/WHIbx84Z7U
US Federal Deficit Swells: $1.2 Trillion Shortfall in Six Months
In the first 6 months of the 2026 Fiscal Year the US Federal Government took in $2.5 trillion and spent $3.7 trillion. Don’t try this at home. https://t.co/L0Zec6hR6L
Gas Spike Drives U.S. Income Growth Below 1%
The surge in gas prices in March pushed annual inflation-adjusted U.S. income growth below 1%. Historically that's been a rare feat outside recessions https://t.co/tz1TFhlu0V
Rental Inflation Hits 60‑Year Low, Dampening CPI Outlook
The thing to pay attention to in this CPI report is rent. Rental inflation reported by tenants fell to 2.6% YoY in March 2026. This is a full percentage point below the long-term average, and near one of the lowest levels in...
Gas Prices Aren't Down, Just Rising Slower
Am seeing lots of headlines today suggesting that consumer sentiment should improve because "gas prices have moderated." While I am hopeful of an improvement in how consumers feel, what has moderated is not the price of gas, but its pace of...
Inflation Outlook and Fed Path Discussed on CNBC
Coming up on CNBC with Kelly Evans & Steve Liesman to talk inflation and the road forward with the Federal Reserve.
CPI Spikes to 3.3%—energy Surge, Fed Holds, 2026 Bearish
CPI just came in at 3.3% that's the highest in 2 years. Energy costs through the roof. The Fed isn't cutting anything anytime soon. 2026 will be continue to be bearish.
War Alone Doesn't Explain 74‑Year Low Consumer Confidence
The University of Michigan has been conducting a consumer confidence survey for 74 years (starting in 1952). The lowest reading in this history is the number out today for April 2026 at 47.6. The commentary from the University of Michigan attributes...
Consumer Sentiment Hits Historic Low Since 1952
“.. consumer sentiment at its lowest level since the series began in November 1952! .. undercutting the lows of all the prior eleven recessions .. the 1970s oil shock,.. the tech wreck and terrorist attacks of 2001, the GFC of...
Consumption Near Negative Territory Despite Positive PCE
It was the combination of GDP revisions (PCE to 1.9%) & real personal consumption in Jan & Feb running at 0.6% rate. We are a rounding error away from inflation-adjusted consumption turning negative in an economy that runs on consumption....
Affordability Awakens Elite to Stark Consumer Reality
I feel like consumer sentiment is having its "affordability" moment as those at the top suddenly awaken to the reality that the world around them bears no resemblance to their own lived experience.