Rising Auto Repair Costs Signal Consumer Risk Amid Credit Strain
Wolf Street: "The CPI for motor vehicle maintenance and repairs jumped by 1.25% in March from February and by 6.1% year-over-year, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since January 2020, those prices exploded by 50%." As I've travelled over the past week and a half, I've regularly asked clients and prospects what they see as the most underestimated upside catalyst or downside risk in markets today. One flagged a downside risk that has stuck with me since: the intertwinement between the health of the US consumer and a financialized US economy. Fear at the onset of post-COVID inflation about how long US consumer spending could hold up has clearly given way to complacency—the assumption that surprising resilience will translate to sustained resilience. His concern: already inflated consumer costs will be exacerbated by higher energy costs at a time when private credit weakness could tighten financial conditions, driving up bankruptcies and layoffs, causing consumer spending to finally break. He currently sees it as a Q4 threat. I have not gone deep into research to formalize an opinion about the severity of the threat, but plan to in a future report. I welcome any and all thoughts in meantime. Learn more about Sage Road Research here: https://t.co/kEx5Z4BbRz. Interested in subscribing? Message me. Wolf Street link: https://t.co/qnJMliwf7h
US Deficit Cuts Essential for Global Current‑account Balance
"Reducing the US fiscal deficit materially and sustainably is the most important US policy prerequisite for global current account rebalancing" This is ignored by many trade deficit hawks bc 1) it contradicts their narrative of the US as innocent victim; 2)...
Democrats Propose Raising Child EITC to $5,500
JUST IN: Democrats' new measure hikes the Earned Income Tax Credit to $5,500 per child.
15% of U.S. Taxes Unpaid, Creating $700
JUST IN: 15% of U.S. taxes go unpaid every year creating a ~$700 billion tax gap
Fed Updates: 24‑Hour News Recap Podcast
What will they do? Today's podcast covers all the news about the Fed from the last 24 hours. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #realestate #mortgagerates #chartdaddy #economics
Inflation Won’t Reach 2% Target, Be More Volatile
literally said that four years ago. Inflation would come down sharply, but not all the way to 2% - which was now the floor rather than the ceiling. And it would also become more volatile, due to various supply shocks
Inflation Still Above Fed’s 2% Target, No Decline
Are inflation and core inflation coming down? Unfortunately, I don't think we can say so anymore. Not on the measures that define the Fed's 2% inflation target: https://t.co/2NzZtQ2Qjr
Trump Threatens to Fire Fed Chair Powell if He Stays
JUST IN: Trump threatens to fire Jerome Powell if he doesn't resign from the Fed after a new chair takes office
Non‑fuel Import Prices Climb 2.8
Non-fuel import prices rose 0.6% in March, are up 2.8% year-over-year https://t.co/3UkarMgRx7 Looks like exporters forget to eat Trump's tariffs.
Manufacturing Jobs Down, Output up Ninefold via Automation
Manufacturing jobs have fallen from 36% of all private jobs in 1946 to just 9% today. But that doesn’t mean we’re making less - real manufacturing output in the US has increased by over 9x in the last 80 years thanks...
Tax Loopholes Sail, Social Spending Stalls in Congress
"The country’s politicians have created a tax code with 10,000 sections and innumerable carve-outs.... tax expenditures tend to fly through Congress, whereas social-spending bills tend to get stuck" https://t.co/vRFS2tPnEu https://t.co/MTmEBAEnV7
Fed Speeches and Price Data Dominate April 15 Calendar
Economic Calendar for Wed. April 15 8:30am - Export prices m/m for March: Expected 1.5%; Prior 1.5% - Import prices m/m for March: Expected 2.3%; Prior 1.3% - NY Empire State manufacturing for March: Expected 0; Prior -0.2 - Fed’s Barr speaks 10:30 - Crude Oil Inventories: Expected 2.1M; Prior...
Food‑at‑home Inflation Set to Jump to 5‑6%
BofA sees Food at Home inflation rising from 2% as of March to 5-6% in the next 6 months https://t.co/sxDL8p533h
K‑shaped Spending Gap Widens Across Income Levels
BofA: K-shaped spending dynamics are likely to get more pronounced Ratio of lower- and higher-income spending to middle-income discretionary spending https://t.co/D91THgBKnh
US to Begin Billion‑Dollar Trump Tariff Refunds Next Week
U.S. prepares to refund billions from Trump tariffs, starting next week - report @seekingalpha https://t.co/AZ9NZeeyFt
Fed Missed Inflation; Core Prices Falling, Rates Should Drop.
Bessent to WSJ's Paul Gigot: "The Fed has been wrong on inflation and the core inflation is coming down, but I understand if they want to wait until the data's clear, but that will mean that interest rates should come...
Yellen Likens Trump’s Rate‑cut Push to Banana Republic
Trump’s push to cut US rates akin to ‘banana republic’, says Yellen - https://t.co/RpxzxJc6i3 via @FT
Vehicle Ownership Costs Jump 36% Since 2020
Car & Truck Inflation in America: Cost of Vehicle Ownership Soared by 36% since 2020. Prices of new & used vehicles, insurance, gasoline, maintenance & repairs, parts & accessories, and fees https://t.co/XQGaCM6zaV https://t.co/oRSKzIye85
Inflation Is a Process, Not a Sudden Drop
Inflation is a process -- doesn't just drop from the sky, it has to be caused and continued https://t.co/I3TuKPlRD8
PPI Climbs >6% Monthly, Energy Spikes Drive Third Rise
PPI Jumps by over 6% Month-to-Month Annualized for 3rd Month in a Row. Energy Price Spike just Latest Wrinkle. Hit from energy in March was softened by food and services, which briefly backed off. In prior months, services were the...
Post‑crisis Outlook: Fed Likely to Raise Rates
If the crisis blows over in the way most investors expect, i think the next Fed move will be a hike
DXY Slides, Rate Expectations Lose Grip on Dollar
Fed rate expectations are drawing less influence the bearings of the Dollar. The $DXY's slide - really a 'path of least resistance break' back into range - outpacing a modest shift in FOMC rate cut expectations: https://t.co/X6AzVkA5Mb
Car Insurance Premiums No Longer Blamed for Core Inflation
Haven't heard people blaming rising car insurance premiums as the explanation for excessive core inflation in a while
Producer Prices Up 4.6% Annually; Fed Should Hold Rates
Producer Prices in the US rose 4.6% per year over the last 5 years and over 25% in total. 2% inflation is a myth. The Fed should not be cutting rates at all this year. https://t.co/sm0qnaFXWD
Fed Nominee Warsh Stuck in Uncontrollable Inflation Cycle
The Economist reports that Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is caught in an inflation vice. As I've been saying for some time, the Fed won't be able to put the inflation genie back in the bottle. https://t.co/KKXAW30dzz
Fed Holds, Iran Shock Won’t Stubbornly Raise Inflation
Bessent says the Fed is right to wait and see how the economy handles the Iran shock but expects it will not seep into inflation expectations, allowing cuts to eventually resume. "If ever there was ‘Team Transitory,’ it’s this."
Fed's Inflation Metrics Remain Elevated, Trending Upward
The Fed's inflation gauges were still elevated before the Hormuz closure...and headed in the wrong direction. Oof https://t.co/nry4KuPH5o
Private Sector Adds 39,250 Jobs Weekly, Fourth Improvement
"For the four weeks ending March 28, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 39,250 jobs a week. It was the fourth straight week of improvement in hiring." - ADP https://t.co/LwfUv8Spdc
US PPI Hits 4%—Inflation Persists Despite Fed Easing
March’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) remains ELEVATED at 4.0%/yr—its highest reading since February 2023. As the Fed pivots away from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing, it's having trouble putting the INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/DCJ60m5pJO
Oil Shock Fleeting, Fed Should Ignore; Egg Prices Fundamentally Falling
An oil-price shock is “temporary” and the Fed should look through it. But egg price deflation is fundamental.
Let New Chairman Warsh Guide the Next Cycle
“We should wait for the new chairman, Warsh, and let him lead the next cycle” https://t.co/oUzwu2fhxd
Carlyle CEO: Fed Adopts Cautious, Data‑driven Wait‑and‑see
“I think they’re just gonna watch the data and that’s prudent” - Carlyle CEO Harvey Schwartz on the Fed basically in wait and see mode
US Tariff Revenue Drops 29% Before Massive Refunds
US tariff revenue moved down to $22 billion in March, a 29% decline from the peak revenue levels last November ($31 billion). This is before the impact of IEEPA duty refunds which are expected to total $170 billion in the...
US Inflation Peaks as Hormuz Shock
JUST IN: US PPI inflation rises to 4%, its highest since February 2023. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz supply shock is estimated to cause oil demand to contract by 80,000 barrels per day — the largest drop since COVID. Are you...
Money Supply Rising, Yet Far Below Past Inflation Peaks
It is tempting to become hyper-focused on oil, but don't take your eye off of money supply when assessing inflation dynamics. Though money supply growth is accelerating across the major economies, it remains materially lower than it was in previous...
March Card Spending Rises 4.3% Amid Strong Discretionary Demand
💳BofA: "Mar total BAC card spending per HH was up 4.3% y/y. We forecast a solid 1.8% & 0.6% for ex-auto & control group retail sales. Despite higher gas prices, Mar spending was broad-based with total ex gas spending remaining...
Quick Model Shows CPI + PPI Outpacing PCE
Morning Commentary with a few #PPI takeaways & CPI+PPI = > PCE model (note this is a "quick" model with few adjustments for data weirdness that has admittedly been more common of late). https://t.co/JZ69JZIaEW
March PPI Jumps to 4%, Biggest Rise Since Feb 2023
JUST IN: March PPI inflation rises to 4%, the largest yearly gain since February 2023
US Stock Market Health Drives Global Economy and Consumer Spending
This is part of why this administration cares so much about equity markets. The moment the market enters a real sustained drawdown, 401ks, retirement programs are impacted and Americans begin holding on to every dollar they have. That behavior alone...
US PPI Inflation Slows to 0.5%, Easing Fed Pressure
This will come as a relief to many, including the Federal Reserve: Monthly US PPI inflation was 0.5% in March, less than half the consensus forecast. America's diversified economy and its energy security are again distinguishing its economic performance from much of...
PPI Beats Expectations, Yet Pipeline Inflation Still Climbing
Commentators rejoicing in better than expected PPI. However, looking more closely, pipeline inflation is rising. @thestreetpro @business @lisaabramowicz1 @tomkeene @ferrotv
Higher EPS Won’t Offset Rising Rates and Inflation
@ferrotv @lisaabramowicz1 @tomkeene @business Regarding your bullish guest (Lisa)who says the EPS outlook has improved so stocks are inexpensive: * The small business confidence is lowest since April 2025. * Global bond yields have risen. The Fed is no longer likely to...
Housing Market Slowdown Began Before War-Driven Rate Hikes
House sales were slowing even before the war sent mortgage rates higher and gas prices soaring https://t.co/rfpqU6llQd
Commercial Banks Boost Lending Amid Shadow Banking Strains
"While there are cracks in the 'shadow' banking system, commercial banks are actually increasing their lending. There's no sign of a credit crunch in the Fed's weekly bank loan data." -Yardeni
U.S. Economy Remains Resilient Amid Growing Global Risks
JPM's Dimon: "The U.S. economy remained resilient in the quarter, with consumers still earning and spending and businesses still healthy. Several tailwinds are supporting this resiliency, including increased fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation, AI-driven capital investment and the Fed's...
Treasury Yields Drop Amid Ongoing Middle East Conflict
JUST IN: U.S. Treasury yields are sliding lower with Middle East conflict still front and center.
Home Sales Plummet as Supply Peaks, Condos Hit Record Low
Single-Family Home Sales Drop Further into Deepfreeze, Supply Hits 10-Year High, Condo Sales Plunge to Record Low March was a lousy beginning of spring selling season. But mortgage rates ticked up only modestly. https://t.co/B5wK4sU0lw https://t.co/jYisYhV9je
Hormuz Closure Could Add 0.8% Core Inflation
Economists at the Dallas Fed try to model the effects on PCE inflation of a one-, two-, or three-quarter disruption of oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz The DSGE model projects WTI prices peaking at $110, $132, or $167 per...
Bessent Predicts Rebound Growth After Weak Quarter
When asked whether he still sees US economy growing at 4% this year, @SecScottBessent feels @semaforben: “Obviously we’ll have some make-up to do from this quarter”
Alcohol Drinks Count in CPI Core, Not PCE Core
Today I learned that alcholic beverages are part of "commodities less food and energy commodities" in the CPI but not in "PCE goods excluding food and energy"