US Debt Limits Expose Global Economic Fragility
On @cgtnamerica, I explain the fragility facing the global economy: "Large economies like the US have been running large deficits and accumulating debt. There's very little headroom. They've put themselves in a corner. And the markets aren’t pricing in the real risk.” https://t.co/paiy3Nh37l
Strong Labor Data Signals Higher Rates for Longer
Jobless claims fell to 207,000. Philly Fed hit a 15-month high. The real economy is not the economy the bears have been describing. Strong data with a hawkish Fed means rates stay higher for longer. That's the actual risk now....
March US Inflation Stems From Money Supply, Not Oil
March's US CPI inflation (3.3%/yr) wasn't the result of higher oil prices. It occurred because the money supply was accelerating prior to the Iranian war. The 3-month annualized inflation rate in Feb. was exactly equal to March's 3.3%/yr. https://t.co/YBHCbqfLiV
Inflation Already Embedded, Set to Accelerate Post‑War
My view in @FortuneMagazine on how inflation was ALREADY BAKED INTO THE CAKE: “Inflation was accelerating before the war, and it will keep accelerating after the war’s over and oil prices fall.” https://t.co/40tVOVEUt1
Traders Boost Futures on Rising 2026 Fed Cut Odds
JUST IN: U.S. short-term interest rate futures climbed as traders bet on higher odds of a Fed rate cut in 2026.
Fed Swaps Signal Dovish Pivot, Pricing 15bps Cuts by December
JUST IN: Fed swaps indicate a dovish pivot, pricing 15 bps in rate cuts by December.
Record Earnings and Baby Boomers Sustain Spending Despite Negative Savings
Record earnings and resilient consumers keep the economy humming. Even a negative saving rate won't derail spending thanks to Baby Boomers, while rent inflation finally cools. 🟢 Open https://t.co/XJbCE5qL7q
IMF’s U‑turn on US Growth Fuels Market Exuberance
Most frequently asked question from policy makers is why markets are so exuberant. It's this: one year ago, after "Liberation Day," the IMF downgraded US growth sharply (blue), but had to reverse itself fully 6 months later (red). It'll be...
Low R* Tied to Declining Labor Share, Growth Raises Both
Blog post from New York Fed president John Williams (and co-author Sophia Cho): "Future periods of very low R* are likely to be accompanied by low levels of the labor share, while increases in the trend growth rate of the...
Fed Officials Barkin and Waller Speak Today
Economic Calendar for Fri. April 17 12:15pm - Fed’s Barkin speaks 2:00 - Fed’s Waller speaks
Card Spending Growth Remains Resilient Amid War, Easter Dip
BofA: Ex-gas total card spending growth has been very resilient since the start of the war, barring a recent slowdown around Easter https://t.co/LKgjpddqKj
Tax Refunds Surge 15% YoY, Up $36 Bn
BofA: As of Apr 15, tax refunds were running about $36bn (15.4%) above last year’s level https://t.co/mPjzrL4Dmr
Yields Spike Three Months After New Fed Chair Takes Office
BofA Hartnett: Market usually tests a new Fed chair... Yields up in 3mo after Fed Chair starts https://t.co/zn2zh9y9nl
Inflation Forces Working Class to Lose Everyday Essentials
5 Things The Working Class Can’t Afford Anymore Due To Inflation And The Cost Of Living Crises https://t.co/H9mtcUTN4g
U.S. Inflation Stays Hot Despite Hormuz Shock
New at THE OVERSHOOT: "Look Through" the Hormuz Shock if You Want. U.S. Inflation is Still Running Hot. https://t.co/fwWOwt7491 Plus: explaining the CPI-PCE gap https://t.co/0DPKZoAo2y
Universal Basic Income Offsets AI Unemployment Without Causing Inflation
Universal HIGH INCOME via checks issued by the Federal government is the best way to deal with unemployment caused by AI. AI/robotics will produce goods & services far in excess of the increase in the money supply, so there will...
US Inflation Just Begun: The Genie Won’t Return
My view in @FortuneMagazine on how US inflation is JUST GETTING STARTED: “It’s at the point now where the inflation genie is clearly out of the bottle and won’t be put back in anytime soon.” https://t.co/40tVOVEUt1
Diesel Prices Surge 60% Year‑Over‑Year
Diesal prices are up almost 60% from a year ago https://t.co/BZjCIh8l7U Too bad Trump can't find out about this.
Tax Complexity Costs Billions, Not Treasury Revenue
My new Capitolism @TheDispatch - and the debut of the NEW Dispatch Markets vertical - is a deep dive on the ever-growing scourge of US tax complexity: "Americans Paid Billions this Tax Day—But Not to the Treasury" https://t.co/63iDhmrmYH https://t.co/mUdi5gLRvB
Trump's Fed Influence Could've Cut Rates by 100bps
If Trump had been able to pack the Fed, rates would have been 100bp lower going into this price shock.
125 Months Sub‑5% Unemployment Marks Potential Record Expansion
If you take out the pandemic data (it was a fake recession) the unemployment rate has been sub-5% for 125 months Is this the longest economic expansion in history? Why has everyone been so wrong about this cycle? https://t.co/jcHreRBsjB https://t.co/aJhhsPzsZB
U.S. Home Prices Continue Steady Gains, Up 0.6% MoM
U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, rose +0.6% month-over-month between the February 2026 and March 2026 Year-over-year: +0.8% Since 2022's peak: +2.2% Since March 2020: +44.1% Table via @ResidentialClub https://t.co/HanulIqzx2
Strong Fundamentals Keep Equities Resilient Amid Mid‑cycle Economy
The saving grace for equities are strong fundamentals with a US economy firmly in mid-cycle, earnings estimates growing at double digits, and valuations not out of whack against metrics such as credit spreads and operating margins. https://t.co/YcF7Fv550i
US Consumer Debt Delinquency Hits 9‑Year High
JUST IN: US consumer debt in delinquency rises to 4.8%, the highest level in 9 years
Economists Predict US GDP Growth Lagging White House Forecasts
The growth outlook for the United States is muted. Economists estimate GDP growth for the next 3 years will be significantly below White House estimates. @morningjoe
Bottom Wage Growth Outpaces Top in 2026 Q1
New data on 2026 Q1 usual weekly earnings in the US have implications for the K-shaped debate. 1. Measured against pre-pandemic (1st chart), the bottom has done meaningfully better on nominal wage growth than the top. 2. Over last few...
Initial Jobless Claims Remain Unusually Low Recently
Interesting chart. Just going based on the last few years, initial jobless claims are unusually subdued https://t.co/3oUeLlzLaW
Fed's Lax Stance Hurts 60/40 Returns, Needs Tighter Policy
Lot of folks suggest the Fed is "not restrictive". Based on the level of assets or the some cherry picked recent rally in assets. They may be right but its also true that if you bought a standard 60/40...
Corporate Profits Outpace Growth, Workers' Share Plummets
"US corporate profits have been growing faster than the domestic economy since the year 2000. The relationship between the two sits at/near record highs:" @DataTrekMB Meanwhile, "American workers’ share of economic activity has been declining rapidly over the same timeframe"...
CPI’s OER Weight Masks Inflation; PCE Shows Hotter Price Pressure
This is not inflationary....Lots of conflicting data on inflation now.... Does CPI come in below expectations on the OER weighting while PCE comes in hot? CPI — Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER) is the single largest component, carrying a weight of roughly 26–27%...
Recession Fears Dispelled: Jobs, Manufacturing Surge, Markets Soar
FEAR WAS WRONG. THE DATA JUST PROVED IT. Everyone was screaming recession… but something weird just happened. The jobs numbers came in strong. Manufacturing surged. US, UK, China & Australia all beat expectations. $SPX just hit fresh record highs 🚨 The fear was loud....
Jobless Claims Confirm US Labor Market Resilience
Weekly jobless claims are perhaps the best real-time pulse check on US jobs, and this morning, they’re signaling a continued resilient labor market. (Bloomberg headline below.) #economy #jobs #employment #markets
Initial Jobless Claims Fall 11,000 to 207,000
"In the week ending April 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level."
Jobless Claims Beat Forecasts, Layoffs Remain Stalled
Still nothing doing on the layoff front *US JOBLESS CLAIMS 207,000 IN APRIL 11 WEEK; EST. 213K
Consumer Debt Delinquency Spikes as Job Growth Revision
Follow the $$$: “HH delinquency worsened in Q4 2025, w/4.8% of debt in delinquency…BLS benchmark revisions showed 2025 payroll growth revised from 584k to 181k…combination matters…consumer more leveraged & labor market was softer in real time than first draft data suggested.”
Fed Leadership Uncertain After Trump's Threat to Fire Powell
If no chair is confirmed by May 15, who leads the Fed? The Fed and the White House seem to have very different answers—a suddenly live dispute after Trump’s latest threat to fire Powell. It’s a question that a 28-year-old John Roberts...
Fed's Rate‑Cut Dilemma: Weak Economy vs Rising Inflation
Normally a weaker economy might lead the Fed to cut rates. But if inflation is also rising, rate cuts risk adding fuel to the price problem. Two goals, one instrument, lousy trade-off.
Trump Seeks to Turn Fed Win Into Prolonged Defeat
President Trump seems to be trying to find a way to turn an easy win on the Fed into a long slog of a loss. My latest column: https://t.co/K1glC171IN
Powell's Exit Odds Slip, Warsh's Confirmation Odds Hit Record Low
The odds of Fed Chair Jay Powell leaving the Fed's board by May 30 have fallen to 31%, according to Polymarket. The chances of Kevin Warsh getting confirmed to be the next Fed chair by May 15 have fallen to...
Record Buffett Indicator Flags Historic U.S. Market Overvaluation
The Warren Buffett Indicator just hit its highest level in history, signalling the most overvalued U.S. stock market on record. This is why Buffett is holding nearly $400 billion in cash much of it in Treasuries and now owns...
Consumer Sentiment Plummets Even as Retail Sales Surge
Consumer sentiment just hit a record low while retail sales are running the hottest they've been in over two years. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/gH4ALHEYBO
Foreign Share of US Treasury Demand Likely Overstated
The Largest Foreign Holders of US Treasury Securities and the “Basis Trade”: April 2026 Update. Foreign demand for the ballooning US Treasury debt is an increasingly important issue. But how much of that demand is actually “foreign?” https://t.co/qUbusfuVOx https://t.co/HYoQrWI8cP
Overtime Barely Rose, yet Remains Employer‑imposed
Overtime is up 0.1 hours over the last year https://t.co/PwOOy52yar More importantly, overtime is rarely voluntary for workers. The employer tells a worker they need to work late. But Bessent wouldn't know anything about that.
Higher GDP Buffers Developed Economies From Oil Shocks
It is not really a controversial statement When more GDP is produced or Energy Unit - the price of the energy unit becomes a little less relevant on a running basis The US economy (and other developed economies) can better...
2-Year Treasury Signals No Rate Cuts, Hikes Expected
The 2-year doesn't lie. It tracks Fed expectations closer than anything else in the market. And right now it's sitting above the Fed funds rate for the first time in a while. That's not pricing in rate cuts. That's pricing in rate...
Fed's Post‑War Policy: Cuts or Hikes?
Is the Fed gearing up for rate cuts or rate hikes after the war? https://t.co/rrlbTJ5MBC via @YouTube
White House‑Fed Tension Persists Beyond New Chair Appointment
Interviewer: Do you think the tension between the White House and the Fed goes away when Warsh becomes Chair. Me: No. It continues (form may change some) until the President backs off and lets the Fed do its job. And...
2026 Tax Refunds Rise, But Far Below Forecasts
NEW from me: The White House (and many economists) expected $700 to $1,000 higher refunds, on average. The reality is closer to $375. Bottom line: Yes, refunds are higher in 2026 (and likely to be the highest ever). But it's less...
Luxury Brand Slumps Signal Stagflation Ahead
This may have flown under the radar: Keep an eye on luxury brands starting to report weaker results. They’re often a leading indicator of what’s coming for the broader consumer. The current environment is deeply stagflationary. https://t.co/53453IX0Fd https://t.co/qvZM0cAjOO
Consumer Pessimism Stems From Perceived Price Pressures, Not Fundamentals
Excellent article attempting to explain why consumer sentiment is so bad (worst ever) while objective prices, wages, employement and economy are all fairly stable: "It's the prices, stupid" https://t.co/bqHARTz5JM