Retail Control Group Surges 7.6% Annualized, Excluding Gas Stations
Diving into yesterday's retail sales, the control group is up a very impressive 7.6% annualized the past 3 months. Yes, gas station sales are up a lot, but remember, they aren't included in the control group. https://t.co/PLg5UQX8Ah
Inflation Surges Across Everyday Items, War Not Sole Cause
Even before the war, we were in the camp that inflation was a bigger issue than most realized. Really neat table from @sonusvarghese that shows various common goods and services we all use, but broken down by annualized inflation over certain...
Consumer Confidence Plummets Even as Economy Remains Strong
Well, @sonusvarghese might still be in X jail, but that doesn't mean he can't write. Here he dives into why consumer confidence is historically low, even though the economy is pretty good. https://t.co/T6HvtKfWLo
Former FOMC Insider Says Warsh Lacked Independence at Hearing
This is quite a comment from someone who served on the FOMC for nearly four years with Kevin Warsh. He says Warsh failed to project independence at his hearing.
Fed Hearing Signals End of Easy Money Era
Markets are bracing for a major shift. Kevin Warsh's Fed hearing signals a move toward less intervention, a smaller balance sheet, and stricter inflation control. Banks rallied, but the era of easy money may be ending. FederalReserve
Warsh Backs Trimmed-Mean, Median Inflation Metrics
The Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, noted during his testimony that he prefers “underlying” inflation gauges, such as “trimmed average” and “median” inflation. Here are the Cleveland Fed’s comparable measures. @augurinfinity https://t.co/9qyOInml8k https://t.co/dP07boVyym
April Data Shows Consumer Spending Slowing Sharply
Pantheon Macroeconomics: More timely data for April indicates that consumer spending is already slowing sharply @augurinfinity https://t.co/9qyOInml8k https://t.co/CRJODJYxDu
Retail Sales Surge Fueled by Gasoline, Weather, Refunds
Retail Sales: Retail sales strength was driven primarily by higher gasoline sales and other temporary factors... such as warm weather and larger tax refunds. @augurinfinity https://t.co/9qyOInml8k https://t.co/tBmvgFvoEf
Warsh Pushes Fed Reform, but Independence Risks Political Pushback
What we learned at the Warsh hearing today • He's serious about his reform agenda, which extends from how the Fed does its economic analysis to how it communicates with the public • He cited inflation measures that are a bit more...
Oil Surge Makes 2026 Fed Rate Cuts Unlikely
WTI back at $88, with the Strait closed again, means the Fed's path just got harder. Energy feeds into CPI with a lag, so every week oil stays elevated, and every dollar above $80 is another month of sticky inflation prints....
Lower Rates Needed to Manage Unmanageable Federal Debt
Hearing Kevin Warsh talk about Fed independence, and watching hard assets sell off on that, feels a lot like the hype around DOGE. Great in theory, but ultimately unrealistic. The reality is that government debt has reached a scale that no brilliant...
Noncompetes and Concentration Cause One‑Third Wage‑Growth Slowdown
A third of the post-1980 slowdown in wage growth is a result of noncompetes and more employer concentration. https://t.co/CjDO9G0rC1
Stop Treasury's TGA Use to Shrink Fed Balance Sheet
One serious way to reduce demand for reserves--which is the only way you can reduce the balance sheet from here--is to get Treasury to stop using the TGA. Treasury's use of the TGA both increases the minimum necessary size of...
Inflation Rose to 3% Ahead of Trump's Tariffs
it actually rose to 3% in Biden's last two months, it had been lowerl, but people began buyingh stuff in advance of Trump's tariffs, pushing prices higher on things like cars and cameras. But this stuff is too complicated for...
QT Arguments Clash with QE-Driven Inflation Narrative
You see a lot of people try to argue that quantitative tightening didn’t tank markets and reduce inflation because it came out of the RRP. But you can’t argue this if you also argue that QE going into the RRP...
Half‑trillion Wiped From US Markets in 90 Minutes
🩸 MARKET SHOCK: $500,000,000,000 wiped out from the U.S. stock market in just 90 minutes following Kevin Warsh’s statements. https://t.co/IE25nsCifH
Warsh Vows Monetary Policy Independence From Trump
Warsh: I'll make monetary policy decisions independent of any advice or pressure from President Trump Also Warsh:
1990s Boom Stemmed From Tighter Money, Not Looser Rates
Me trying to explain to my nephew's friend that the 90's disinflationary/productivity 'boom' was underpinned in part by 'sounder' money and a 5+% FF funds rate, not the other way around (my nephew went upstairs to grab his shit for bball...
Fed's Shift: From Late Powell to Sock Puppet Warsh
It seems like the Fed is going from “Too Late” Powell to “Sock Puppet” Warsh. Will “Sock Puppet” Stick?
Copper at $6 Signals Economy’s Health Boost
Here comes "The Doctor," touching $6 again. They call it Doctor Copper because the metal's action diagnoses a sick or recovering economy. A nice 55.1 on ISM Manufacturing Production indicates the industrial sector has been taking its Vitamin (C)opper. https://t.co/BGqFYLIPUI
Rate‑cut Odds Tumble After Warsh Hearing, Retail Sales Drive Shift
What's priced in after Warsh's nomination hearing. Yesterday, here was a 54.5% chance of a rate cut in December; now it's 39.5%. Was it Warsh's testimony? Doubtful, as we had a strong retail sales report. (src: BBG) https://t.co/Xg7g7b7gXM
Warsh Denies President Asked About Rate Cuts
Warsh says reports that the president asked him if he would lower rates if nominated were fake news.
Fed Must Prioritize Chronic Inflation Risk Management
Warsh addressed none of this in his nomination hearing. FTR, I think inflation is more of a chronic risk than an acute problem, but risk management is central to what the Fed is supposed to be about.
Inflation Trajectory Improves, but Work Remains Ahead
Warsh: the trajectory on inflation is improving, but there's more work to do This may well serve as a summary of his testimony as well.
GDP Graph Fails to Reflect Recent Decline
Hardly look at this broken model anymore since the gold imports mistake over a year ago. That said my pet peeve max annoying report detail is still broken. GDP now went down from 1.3 to 1.2 and yet...
Pending Home Sales Plunge
Pending Home Sales Still in the Deepfreeze, Drop in the West & Midwest, Tick up in the South & Northeast . Down by 35% from 2021, by 30% from 2019, and by 31% from 2018. The housing market is in the 4th...
Fed Balance Sheet Shrinkage Doesn't Cool Inflation or Markets
The notion that Warsh shrinking the balance sheet would put downward pressure on inflation or that it would deflate asset prices is one of the most ludicrous propositions that anyone following monetary policy and markets over the past 20 years...
Ideal Fed Policy: Minimal Meetings, No Politics, 2% Inflation
My wish list 8 meetings and press conferences Muzzle governors and presidents from discussing and writing about monetary policy Keep the dots Forward guidance when useful (typically at zero fed funds rate, or Pivots) Smaller balance sheet with no MBS and no long duration assets...
Warsh: President only Suggested, Didn’t Demand Rate Cuts
Q: did the President ask you to lower rates? Warsh: he didn't require it, he didn't demand it. Question goes back and forth. Warsh is pretty clear - Warsh doesn't dispute that he may have been 'asked' to lower rates - he...
Fed Balance Sheet Cuts Must Be Gradual, No Fixed Target
What level should the balance sheet be at? Warsh: I haven't picked a number. The Fed should come to an agreement, it's taken 18 years to get to the balance sheet, it won't happen overnight. It should not hold long-term Treasuries....
Warsh's Plan to Cut SOMA WAM Gains FOMC Backing
Reducing WAM of SOMA could be part of Warsh's plan which many FOMC members could support
Warsh Signals Normalcy, Yet Bias May Influence 2026 Rate Cuts
Warsh is presenting himself as if he intends to be a normal Fed Chair. Either he intends to put his thumb on the scale despite what he is saying in Congress or the President is going to be disappointed. Dollar...
Warsh Vows Independence; Markets React with Caution
Overly simplistic headline I expect to see in Google News: "Trump's Fed Chairman Pick Kevin Warsh Says he Will be Independent of Political Influence, Stocks Retreat"
Warsh's Trump Ties and Consistently Poor Fed Calls
It's not just that Warsh would be beholden to Trump. That is the most important thing, but it also overshadows the fact that his Fed calls down the years have been bad--not uniquely bad, but systematically bad. I'm old enough...
One-Year Inflation Expectations Surge to 4.8%, Year’s Largest Spike
JUST IN: One year inflation expectations jumped to 4.8%, the biggest one month spike in a year
Retire Dot Plots, Forward Guidance, and Cut Press Conferences
Shitposting aside, I think it would be a great move to retire dot plots, forward guidance, and have less press conferences
Warsh Says President Never Directed Specific Interest-Rate Decisions
Warsh's wording seemed quite precise to me (emphasis mine): "The president never asked me to predetermine, commit, fix, decide on *any interest rate decision*" He used the same wording again: "The president never once asked me to commit to any particular...
Inflation Improving, Trend Favorable Despite Imperfect Measures
“Inflation has been Improving somewhat.. the measures I prefer… they’re not where they should be but the trend is quite favorable” Kevin Warsh on inflation
Warsh Denies President Ever Pressured Him on Interest Rates
Warsh: the President never asked me to predetermine or fix any particular rate. The President never, once, asked me to any particular interest rate decision, period. Nor would I agree to it.
Fed Official Dodges Rate Question, Emphasizes Policy Lag
Warsh: I don't believe in forward guidance, I should not be previewing for you... VanHollen: I'm asking about your framework: what would happen if interest rates were lowered to 1% or less. Would that likely push up prices. Warsh: the Fed has...
30-Year Yield Near Breakout, Markets Brace for Move
US 30Y yields are compressing near a key breakout zone setup suggests a decisive move could be close. What happens next could impact equities, commodities, and global liquidity Read the full breakdown: https://t.co/a7I8dqoCIw #US30Y #BondYields #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #Indiacharts #MacroEconomics...
Retail Sales Rise, but Inflation‑adjusted Sales Fall Fourth Month
Despite yet another "upside surprise" to retail sales, inflation-adjusted retail sales have declined for the fourth straight month. Goods prices are rising faster than the dollar value of goods sales Consumers are spending dollars, but aren't necessarily consuming more output https://t.co/EyAhZA065H
Kevin Warsh Calls for End to Forward Guidance
I can't believe Kevin Warsh just said he wants to kill forward guidance It's just a podcast man
Fed's 2021‑22 Mistakes Fuel Ongoing Inflation Legacy
Warsh opens the hearing by noting that today's inflation is a residual of the Fed's past mistakes "The Fed missed its mark, and we are still dealing with the legacy of the policy errors in 2021 and 2022." "Once you let inflation...
Rising Living Costs Reveal Fed’s Missed Inflation Target
Warsh on cost of living: when the cost of living has gone up for virtually all deciles of the American public, it's a sign that the Fed missed its mark. The fatal policy error is a legacy we still live...
Two Senators, Decades‑Long Ties, Introduce Fed Nominee
Sen. Dave McCormick is introducing Kevin Warsh at his confirmation hearing, one of at least two senators who have known the Fed chair nominee for decades (Bill Hagerty being the other)
Trump Predicts Rate Cuts Once Kevin Warsh Returns
JUST IN: President Trump says expects interest rates to fall “when Kevin Warsh gets in”
Rising T‑Rates May Trigger Emerging Market Problems
Coach thinks T-rates could turn higher from here. That could cause a few problems. https://t.co/rnBUpVg4z1
Retail Sales Rise Despite Historically Low Consumer Sentiment
Retail sales again surprise higher, as consumer sentiment remains historically low. Trust what they do, not what they say. @sonusvarghese is still in X jail, but he made this table to break it down. https://t.co/efYPbmw1Mo
Trump Warns He'll Be Disappointed if Warsh Avoids Rate Cuts
JUST IN: Trump says he'd be "disappointed" if Warsh doesn't seek lower rates after confirmation of Fed Chair