US Economy Social Media and Updates
US Economy Social Media and Updates
Today felt like a textbook risk-off session. Weak GDP revision. VIX back above 20. Short-term breadth rolling over. Dollar up. Rates pushing toward 4.3%. Oil surging. In CHART THIS I walk through what’s actually changing — and what isn’t. Six viewer questions. Clear levels. No drama. Watch here: https://t.co/L8TGTH56RB
The Fed won a sweeping court victory Friday. But the fact that it needed one tells you everything about how much has changed. The unsealed filings are something else—the Fed catalogued 100 Trump attacks on Powell and told a court...
"Inflation isn't a problem at all." Ten Year Treasury Yield: "Hold my beer." 🍺 One of the biggest shifts from February to March? $TNX bounced of support at 4.0% as rates move higher as prices appear to be 📈. https://t.co/Y10UC0y7lL
GS: A hawkish rate move has coincided with a decline in the market's pricing of economic growth https://t.co/JO5RIgmjDP
Video of what I'm watching for next week: A Contentious Fed Decision Will Add to Market's Iran Concerns https://t.co/Ikll4zvVyq
My take on the difficultly navigating the splintering within Fed leadership amidst tension of inflation and the labor market.
The *number* outside the labor force will organically rise as the population ages. It says *zero* about labor market health. A better measure is the participation *rate* of prime-age individuals, which excludes those likeliest to be retired or students. It's near...
Hikes? Get the 🍿 ready when the usually hawkish new Fed Chairman turns hawkish later this year.
The number Wall Street was dreading arrived today. Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.7% — literally half the initial reading — while core PCE inflation climbed to 3.1%, its highest since early 2024. The S&P 500 responded by hitting...
The PCE-based ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 3.2% in January. This is the median of 24 numbers: 8 concepts measured over 3, 6 and 12 months.
BEA also released its revised GDP data for Q4, including the Price Index Gross Domestic Purchases, broadest inflation index for domestic inflation, which excludes import prices. It was revised up today to 3.8% for Q4, worst since Q4 2022 https://t.co/ATVMhOch9V...
Core PCE Inflation Hits 3.1%, Worst in 2 Years, in Unique Twist Blows way past CPI Inflation. Driven by Core Services. Energy spike is still to come. The Fed needs to pay attention https://t.co/ATVMhOch9V https://t.co/fBae4ie2QQ
“I am not on recession watch, but I am concerned.” My new post shares excerpts from three recent interviews on risks facing the U.S. economy. https://t.co/poGM4kmiYY
Here’s the Financial Times on today's revised data on US fourth-quarter GDP. Similar to the consumer spending figures also released today (please see previous post), Q4 GDP growth now suggests a less dynamic American economy in the run-up to the...
For a $600,000 home, a borrower will now have to pay $130 more per month than what they would have paid the day before the war started when rates were 5.99%
The BEA’s decision to change legal services source data in the PCE from CPI (around 11.3% in Jan) to PPI (1.8% in Jan) cut the core PCE MoM chg by 8bps (would have been 0.44% vs 0.36%). Could defend...
BESSENT: A LONG WAY FROM FED GOING BACK TO QE Talk about blatant BS- the Fed is doing QE
US economic data released today suggests that, leading up to the Middle East War, hitherto robust consumer spending had begun to soften. Meanwhile, inflation — as measured by core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s favorite measure — remained sticky, holding well...
After downward revisions to the 2025 employment data, the drop-off in job openings at the end of last year looks less pronounced than it initially appeared. January shows some improvement in the job vacancy-to-unemployed worker ratio, which rose to 0.97 from...
Inflation was hearing up even before the US-Iran conflict began. Bad news for the economy and bad news for the Fed
How to interpret the rise in bond yields across the G10? Here's a guess: the market has priced in moderate oil disruption that marginally raises upside inflation risks and lowers probability of central bank easing this year. If at some...
As oil prices surged on Thursday during the intensifying Iran war, President Donald Trump again urged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, even as markets increasingly bet that rising energy costs would keep inflation elevated and delay...
January was another hot month for PCE inflation (we're getting these data two weeks later than usual due to shutdown). Annual rates for core PCE: 4.5% 3.7% 3.1% 3.1%
Fed's in a tough position here. Labor market and economy in general need a bit of TLC but war inflation may be one too many one-time price level increase. Default reaction will be no reaction for now. FOMC...
Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman on the Sanders proposal for a billionaire tax. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/985S5J7cYd
The Fed's balance sheet holdings of US Treasuries is now at October 2024 levels and rising. This is why it's difficult to get secularly bearish on gold. Material balance sheet expansion has begun with asset prices at ATHs and no...
My quick measure of affordability, real spending at fast-food restaurants, is down 3% since September https://t.co/Ge3YaPH3PU
If the Fed cut rates, bond yields would soar. Crude oil prices are surging due to supply constraints. The market needs demand destruction to restore balance. In plain English, there is not enough crude oil to go around because of the...
CPI at 2.4%. Looks fine. Except $WTI is up 68% YTD and none of it is in the data yet. The Fed is trapped. Cut → inflation explodes. Hold → recession deepens. Goldman pushed cut to September. Futures say December 2027. https://t.co/WFbW5IQa0u
With Trump boasting about new factories everywhere, he would feel really stupid if he ever saw the data showing factory construction plummeting https://t.co/1T5VGrJqyn
It missed b/c of a methodological change that the BEA introduced today that cut the core PCE by about a tenth relative to expectations. And even then, it still rounded to 0.4%.
Looking ahead to next week - we have a laundry list of central bank rate decisions (almost all holding) with critical forecast updates at a critical time - like the #FOMC SEC. Historically, the 12th week of the year is the...
Big pop in pump prices will drag on discretionary spending when wages succumbing to disinflation. And consider starting point of 0.7% GDP coming into 2026 (which today’s GDP revisions demonstrate were driven WAY MORE by fundamentals vs old narrative of...
Notable: Disposable income (blue bar) surged in January. That was the first time in months that income growth was higher than spending growth (orange bar) Savings also ticked up (black line). I'm not sure what drove that jump in income. Minimum wage...
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved up to 3.1% in January, the highest level in 22 months. That was the 59th consecutive reading above the Fed's 2% target level. There will be no Fed rate cut next...
Spending on healthcare services is up 7.9% year over year, far higher than the inflation rate reported in the CPI https://t.co/Mt0STaWkJz
U.S. GDP grew by only 0.7% in the fourth quarter, compared with the forecast of 1.4%. The pace of growth has slowed noticeably. In such a situation, the Federal Reserve has more room not to keep interest rates high for too...
Core prices rose 0.36% in January in the PCE index (Nov and Dec price levels were revised up slightly), raising the 12-month inflation rate to 3.1% This index had fallen to 2.6% in April 2025 Headline was +0.28% in January and 2.8%...
Just In: PCE Inflation was 2.8% in January, a bit below expectations. But Core PCE Inflation was 3.1%, the highest since March 2024. **PCE Inflation could easily hit 4% this spring due to the war in Iran** It's notable that PCE...
January Core PCE prints at 3.1% as expected - previously 3.0% y/y Headline PCE prints at 2.8% vs 2.9% expected- previously 2.9% y/y
Markets are quiet today but there's a BIG week ahead with 7 central bank rate decisions including the Fed Here's my take on it all 👇
US PCE Data is set to release today. Lets prepare for it in 3 simple steps using @mrkt_ai terminal. Comment "playbook" & i will dm you the MRKT access link
Michael Burry, an investor known for his book *The Big Short*, warned that the U.S. financial markets and economy are about to collapse. "The problem is too big to be salvaged."
Energy Inflation for Americans. Dropping gasoline prices since mid-2022 papered over big price increases in electricity and natural gas. But that’s now over https://t.co/KjuZv4jN7V https://t.co/8HsWsulfsD
Yields on the 2-year Treasury note posted their largest daily increase since May 2, 2025 (the day of a surprisingly strong payroll report), and closed at their highest level since Aug. 21, 2025, the day before Powell signaled a likely...
⚠️Broad money supply in developed countries is surging: Broad money across advanced economies rose to a record $74.1 trillion in 2025. This comes after a massive +25% surge during 2020–2022 before growth eased back to trend. It has risen over $50 trillion since...
The peak for the PCE's core goods x-autos series was 5.3% YoY in 2022. We're not there , but it will jump from 2.3% in Jan26 to 2.9% in Feb26 tks to a 1.0% MoM surge. Outside of covid, it's...
I can see why the Trump administration likes the January trade data. Imports didn't move much v December and exports bounced back from a December dip. But there is a bit more going on under the hood 1/ many...
"Higher inflation could cause the Fed to eventually raise interest rates. But Sahm said the Fed will also consider what could happen if energy costs rise so high that the economy slows down. “That’s a scenario in which the Fed would...
The share of energy-related consumer spending has declined in the US. @soberlook WFC @augurinfinity https://t.co/UrUf2APJn5 https://t.co/4k9Hw8tcSW
