Fed and Central Banks Ignoring Money Supply Theory
My view in @KitcoNewsNOW on the Fed's DISREGARD for the Quantity Theory of Money: “The Fed doesn't look at changes in the money supply, & the Fed’s not alone. Most central banks discard the money supply." Central bankers should give Sekerke & Hanke's "MAKING MONEY WORK” a read. https://t.co/EBLuibTsDv
US Deficit Ballooning as Fed Expands Balance Sheet
I know there is a lot going on with a lot of headlines (US-Iran, monetary policy, consumer confidence, etc); but worth remembering the ballooning US deficit and efforts to facilitate it (like the Fed balance sheet) still matter: https://t.co/4H1YDnmu7Y
Warsh's Fed Balance Sheet Cut Push Gains Senate Confirmation
Senate Confirmation of Warsh, who Wants to Reduce the Fed’s Balance Sheet, Gets Unstuck as DOJ Ends Powell Investigation. Even during the Senate hearings, Warsh stuck to his guns: the Fed should have a smaller balance sheet https://t.co/NHR0nbQLhS
Cleveland Fed Warned Trimmed Mean Understates Inflation, Critics Ignored
The skew issue was pointed out by the Cleveland Fed back in early 2022 as a reason the trimmed mean was understating inflation back then. Someone wanting the top job who is trashing current measures & methods probably should have...
Warsh Didn't Vote Against Fed at Every Crisis Meeting
I have plenty of criticisms of Kevin Warsh, but it's factually untrue that he voted against the Fed at every meeting during the financial crisis.
FOMC Slashes Rates 75 Bps to 3.5%
January 22, 2008. The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent...Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice...
AI Boosts Productivity, Strengthens US Fiscal Outlook
excellent study here, showing that AI-driven productivity growth would be a big benefit for US fiscal dynamics. supports my view that “No, there will not be an AI-induced recession”. recommend reading the entire piece particularly for detail on embedded optionality in...
10-Year Yield Rises After Powell Probe Dropped
10yr bond yield relative to CNBC's announcement at 10:17am ET that investigation into Powell has been dropped (clearing the way for Warsh) src for intra-day chart: BBG https://t.co/TpnqqO9bLw https://t.co/UOy5Qt22Dt
Independent Fed's Inflation Focus Could Thwart AI Takeover
Has anyone made the argument yet that an independent Fed, firmly focused on its inflation target, will be one of our most important bulwarks against complete AI takeover? As long as policy prioritizes stable *consumer* prices, that puts a brake resource...
Fed Could Cut Rates in June to Avoid Instability
Fed might cut rates in June, not because inflation is beaten, but to dodge a financial stability risk. Cooling jobs data + oil spikes that are "transitory" could tip the scales. Keeping an eye on the May jobs report. 🧠💰...
Trump May End Probe, Threatening Powell’s Fed Chairmanship
Rumor has it Trump will drop the probe against Powell, which could end his tenure as Fed chairman. #mortgagerates #realestate #economics #inflation #chartdaddy
Productivity Boom Raises Neutral Rate, Undermining Rate Cuts
Kevin Warsh wants lower rates soon. His reasoning is fundamentally flawed. The productivity boom raises the neutral rate, not lowers it, leaving no room for aggressive cuts. 🟢 Open https://t.co/V7JMWWBgcg
Inflation Expectations Set to Drive Market Direction
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – April 24, 2026 🚨 Consumer sentiment day is here — inflation expectations will be the key market watch 👀 🗓️ Economic Events: 1000 - UMich Consumer Sentiment (Apr): Exp 48.5; Prior 47.6 1000 - UMich 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr):...
Blue‑Collar Chip Rally Signals US IS
Harnett BofA: upside breakout blue collar semis (ON, STM, MCHP, TXN...) implies surge in US ISM to >60 https://t.co/HFxKZOdFGN
Yields Rise as Market Tests New Fed Chair
The market often tests a new Fed chair... Yields up in 3mo after Fed Chair starts. BofA Hartnett https://t.co/uJHPiLrNsf
BofA Says April Dot Plot Would Appear More Hawkish
BofA: The dot plot would look more hawkish if it were published at the April meeting https://t.co/nN8P0rQug7
BofA Predicts March PCE
BofA: We expect headline PCE inflation to jump to 3.4% y/y in March on the back of the spike in gas prices. The saving rate would probably fall significantly, to 3.1% https://t.co/dorT1DTMid
2026 Labor Market Set to Remain Stable Amid AI Limits
[@opinion] Stabilization in the labor market data and a massively compute-constrained AI industry means 2026 is shaping up as a pretty decent year for the labor market — for now at least: https://t.co/Js1J4rf3o1
Central Banks Sing the President’s Tune, Not Independent
If the job interview is "Will you do my bidding?" the answer isn't central bank independence. It's central bank karaoke: the chair just sings the president's tune. https://t.co/YFiILGZPvR
Quantitative Easing Enriches the Wealthy, Harms the Poor
"QE is reverse Robin Hood. It’s policy that steals from the poor, to give to the rich." — Kevin Warsh https://t.co/wcGKkX6SgP
US Tariff Revenue Plummets to $23B, Fiscal Risks Loom
🇺🇸 Another problem looming in the US is the decline in tariff revenues, to just $23bn in April. Maximum uncertainty following SCOTUS ruling, new sections, and refunds, but ultimately the drop in tariff revenues may become an issue again from...
B+ Growth Masks Recession-Scale Deficit Mismatch
A B+ economy with a recession-sized deficit is like showing up to a Sunday barbecue in full scuba gear. Technically you’re dressed, but something doesn't add up. https://t.co/3BmlhUlHQr
Warsh Pushes Balance Sheet Shrinkage via QE Resolution Fund
As I wrote with Matt Sekerke in @WSJ, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, is CORRECT. He wants to SHRINK the Fed’s balance sheet. So do we. The only way to do it cleanly and rapidly is through the establishment of a...
Oil Would Need $350 to Trigger 1970s‑style Inflation
My Leading Inflation Index has jumped to 3.95% after the recent surge in oil prices. But even this is not even remotely close to resembling the 1970s. In order to get a 1970s style rate of inflation (10%+) you'd need...
AI Cuts Service Costs Unseen, Inflating Official Rates
AI is already making services far cheaper, but probably not in ways captured in the inflation deflator. So inflation is going to look higher than it really is, which could mean the Fed overtightens.
US Manufacturing Surge Fuels Trucking Market Tightness
The PMI for US manufacturing blew out the forecast at 54, the highest levels since May 2022, further confirmation that US manufacturing is ramping. It all supports our view that volumes are helping to drive tightness in the trucking market,...
Fed's Balance Sheet Fix: Impact Is Modest
The impact of completely correcting the UST duration holdings of the Fed 101🧵 Despite the warnings and hyperventilation of the usual suspects, correcting the Fed's balance sheet is just not that big a deal. Today the balance sheet has a...
Nowcast IQ Nails US PMI, Flags Europe Slowdown
The best Nowcast data on Earth? Solid PMIs from the US were just released, showing that economic momentum is gaining pace despite the war, and this was spot on with our live growth data from Nowcast IQ. The same applies to...
Trump's Policies Turn Inflation From Crisis to Choice
Covid inflation was a global phenomenon. It went away when the covid supply shocks went away. Today, inflation is a policy choice. And all of Trump's policies so far have been--to one degree or another--inflationary War: inflationary Deficit: inflationary Tariffs:...
Median Voter Demands Lower Inflation Than Fed Tolerates
I have come to believe the median voter has a different loss function than the Fed. The median voter wants inflation at 2% or lower and would tolerate higher unemployment as a tradeoff. The Fed’s revealed preference is at...
Warsh: Tariffs Cause Temporary Price Spikes, Not Inflation
Senator: "Some Fed officials have said this excess [3%] inflation is due to tariffs. Do you agree?" Warsh: "No, I don't. ... the data is imperfect ... trimmed averages take out the tail risk ... [I will] survey a billion prices" The...
April PMI Expected Rise; Jobless Claims Slightly Up
Economic Calendar for Thurs. April 23 8:30am - Chicago Fed national activity index for March: Expected -0.13; Prior -0.11 - Initial jobless claims: Expected 210k; Prior 207k 9:45 - S&P composite PMI for April: Expected 50.6; Prior 50.3 - S&P manufacturing PMI for April: Expected 52.5; Prior 52.3 - S&P...
Warsh's Push to Cut Fed Liquidity Tests Rate Limits
Curious, if Warsh wants to trade in fiscal dominance for fiscal discipline - removing to start the $300B/yr Fed liquidity program Powell approved to ease REPO volatility - how low do rates go & how does he get them down...
Yields Climb as U.S.-Iran Tension Meets PMI Watch
JUST IN: Treasury yields rise amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, with investors eyeing April PMI data.
Warsh's Metric Could've Foreseen Pre‑2022 Inflation Rise
If you read closely, Warsh’s new measure would have predicted inflation approaching before 2022. And yes it is correct to consider food and energy if done right. https://t.co/9Dpz8wn32N
Fed Chair Sees Rate Cuts, Markets Delay Until 2027
The new Fed Chair thinks productivity gains mean rates should fall. Markets aren't pricing in a single cut until late 2027. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/1jwtVXGFZX
Immigrant‑heavy Low‑skill Jobs Lag Wage Growth Post‑Trump
Industries in which immigrants with low educational attainment are overrepresented have seen slower wage growth than the broader private sector since Trump took office, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows. https://t.co/dSm4Lvudzj
Fertilizer Price Surge Triggers Gradual Food Inflation
Rising fertilizer prices are now hitting farmers, and eventually those will translate into higher wholesale food prices which will (assuming higher costs are passed onto consumers) eventually land at grocery stores too. The inflationary impulse doesn’t arrive all at once,...
Trimmed‑average Inflation: Only Gauge Still Trending Lower.
Yesterday, Kevin Warsh said he favors using trimmed-average inflation measures... Of course he does.... It’s probably the only “inflation” gauge still somehow trending lower. Yep.... I’ll say it again: None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/psqdXXGW7Q https://t.co/LS43LWLsQe
S&P Earnings Growth Likely Peaks 2028‑2030 After Rate Cut
Street consensus, S&P 500 earnings growth: 2026: +21.8% 2027: +14.8% Those are big, tough-to-achieve numbers. But look at the historic record. The S&P's earnings growth rate historically peaked 40 to 76 months after the first Fed rate cut. Yes, forty to seventy-six. Powell...
Yardeni Predicts S&P Rebound, Summer Consolidation Ahead
YARDENI RESEARCH IN BLOOMBERG (April 22, 2026) Ed Yardeni became convinced that US stocks were primed for a rebound after the S&P 500 Index had tumbled more than 9% from its record high. Yardeni said the selloff had the feeling of...
Warsh Calls Core PCE ‘Rough Swag,’ Favors Trimmed Mean
At his confirmation hearing, Warsh dismissed core PCE as "rough swag" and said he'd prefer to focus on better gauges of underlying inflation like median or trimmed mean. This got attention because Dallas Fed trimmed mean was 2.3% in February (y/y)—well...
Retail Sales Soar as Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low
US Retail Sales hit another all-time high while Consumer Sentiment is at its lowest level in history. Watch what they do, not what they say. https://t.co/mZJ1r5oqcI
Warsh's Potential Fed Reforms Analyzed by Experts
Read this morning’s rundown from me and @samjsutton about reforms Warsh might make to the Fed: https://t.co/bBY0mNIO8y
Cash Surges in 2025, Boosting Fed Balance Sheet
𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐢𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐝. 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐥𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡. The @NewYorkFed's SOMA annual report shows currency growth accelerated in 2025! This is a bit surprising given the digital age, but it bodes well for the Fed's balance sheet and operating income. (1/7) https://t.co/jvk7p0srbM
Housing Leading Indicators Return to Positive Growth
With the MBA data this morning, all of my three favorite housing leading indicators have flipped back to positive YoY growth after war-related declines at the end of March. Will it hold? https://t.co/nPUuWGhIrg
Market Always Finds Fault in Fed Transparency, Past or Present
The market will go back to criticizing the Fed for lack of transparency the way it used to before the Fed ramped up its transparency. The only constant is that the market is always find something to complain about in...
Iran War Inflation Drives Rates Despite Upcoming UST Auction Schedule
It has been almost two weeks since the last UST coupon auction. Today's 20y starts up a bunched up schedule in the next week that is another headwind for rates. Of course, the Iran war inflation remains the...
5-Year Yield Rises Toward Downtrend Line
Interest rates worth watching here. 5-year yield pushing up into the recent downtrend line after holding support last week https://t.co/n0HhB2UYKx
Fed’s Rate Tightening Always Ends With Credit Cracks
The Fed's core dilemma: inflation requires higher rates. Credit breaks at higher rates. Every tightening cycle ends when something cracks — not when inflation hits target. 1982: S&L stress. 2007: housing. 2023: banks. Always the same story. $TLT https://t.co/Ogvr0NZVik