US Export Growth Near Zero Excluding Re‑exports, Gold
Your Stat Of The Day, from @OxfordEconomics & @business: if you exclude re-exports and gold exports, both of which rose very sharply last year for non-trade reasons, US export growth "is close to zero." https://t.co/FWnMD6yRNM
Service‑spending Optimism Paired with Declining Purchase Intent
"Consumers planning more spending on services over the next six months also shifted from 'yes' and 'maybe' to 'no' in April." - @Conferenceboard https://t.co/ciqEQIcMU4
Prevailing Belief: 5% Inflation From GFC to Pre‑Covid
Pretty wild that from the GFC through pre-Covid, folks thought inflation would be 5% https://t.co/NTWRmpY7nk
Redbook Sales Jump 7.7% YoY, Best Since 2022
Redbook retail sales +7.7% YoY - highest since late 2022 Index is a weekly sales-weighted measure of YoY SSS growth across ~9k large US gen. merch. retailers. Covering locations open 12+ mos, it reps >80% of official US Dept. of Commerce...
Higher Inflation Dampens S&P 500, IG, HY Returns
"Periods of higher inflation are associated with weaker returns in the S&P 500 and the IG and HY indexes, consistent with a policy backdrop of elevated interest rates that restrain risk-taking" -Apollo Slok
Fed Prioritizes Blame Avoidance Over True Price Stability
Fed watchers treat every print like it’s gospel. Newsflash: the Fed is a political institution wearing an economist costume. If you think they’re optimizing for “price stability” you haven’t been paying attention. They optimize for avoiding blame. That’s why policy lags reality… and why...
Fed Banks' Deferred Losses Could Delay Treasury Payments Past 2030
Great note from @billnelson2x2. Each Fed bank has its own deferred asset, a cumulative sum of its losses. It has to be repaid before remittances can be sent to Treasury. Some Fed banks will be paying them off long past...
Wars Fuel Inflation While Fed Pledges Rate Cuts
Wars are inflationary... Across the globe, inflation rates are rising along with inflation. h/t @charliebilello But here at home, new Fed Chair Warsh says he's going to somehow get the FOMC to cut rates? https://t.co/O0NyvYUtKm
US Activity Indicator Shows Faster 2026 Growth
"Our US Current Activity Indicator Points to a Faster Pace of Growth Relative to Other DMs So Far in 2026" - Goldman https://t.co/5sAsL9k5aE
Dalio Warns Warsh's Fed Appointment Would Risk Premature Rate Cuts
Ray Dalio thinks “it would be a mistake” if Kevin Warsh comes to the Fed and tries to cut rates now https://t.co/WruNFHVCli
Supreme Court Refunds Blocked; Trump Tariffs Act as Sales Tax
The New York Times reports that American consumers will not receive a dime of Pres. Trump's tariffs refunds, which were ordered by the Supreme Court. TRUMP'S TARIFFS = A SALES TAX ON AMERICAN CONSUMERS. https://t.co/PQicw18r53
Yield‑Yen Trade‑off Fuels Accelerating Inflation Pressure
Yields and yen are most important here. Policymakers have been suppressing 5% US 30yr and 160 USDJPY at the cost of increasing inflation. Inflation pressures are now boiling at a faster rate and will force policymakers to choose one or...
Fed Claims Data Dependence, yet Cherry‑picks Numbers
If the Fed is “data dependent”… why does it feel like the data is whatever they need it to be?
Inflation Spikes: War, Credit Booms, Pandemic Pressures
1943-1947 1974-1979 Both high inflationary periods 2002-2005 didn't have high inflation, but a credit demand boom and bust 2020-2022 Pandemic Inflation https://t.co/Jjov0fsNAY
War and Debt Push Fed Toward Rate Cuts Soon
It’s wild to see markets still pricing in zero Fed rate cuts with this economic index at its worst level in nearly 70 years. I believe we’ll see meaningful cuts over the next two years. Counterintuitively, the war only strengthens the...
US Debt Rises a Trillion Every Five Months
A million seconds ago was April 14th. A billion seconds ago was 1994. A TRILLION seconds ago was 30,000 B.C. The US national debt grows by $1 Trillion every 150 days. The difference between a million and a billion is 31 years. The...
Treasury Sales Surge, Inflation Beats T‑Bill Yields
US Government Sold $524 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week. Inflation to Surpass T-Bill Yields. Brutal Bond Math The effects of Tax Day. The 10-Year Treasury yield rose to 4.31%, 30-Year Treasury yield to 4.91% https://t.co/NSPwUq5RC8 https://t.co/v0dwKukdIK
Americans Pessimistic About Economy Amid Market Peaks
The latest Gallup numbers are out. Nearly 80% of Americans say economic conditions are poor or just fair. Only 1 in 5 think things are good or excellent. All this pessimism is happening with the stock market at all-time highs....
GDP Masks Median Consumer Strain and Looming Shock
Consumers are in a foul mood, but spending remains strong because negative media slants sentiment @JohnFMauldin I disagree. GDP looks fine because it’s pulled up by high earners and credit The median consumer is already strained, and sentiment reflects that reality....
Unemployment Stable as Labor Supply Shrinks From Retire
Jobs look flat, but unemployment hasn’t jumped That's because labor supply is shrinking Retirements and deportations offset weak hiring. It’s a supply story, not strength. If we deport too many workers, labor shortages will start to hurt the economy. #LaborMarket #Economy #Employment...
March PCE Index Projected up 0.7%, Core 0.3%
March PCE Price Index seen having risin 0.7% in March... due out Thursday morning core +0.3% https://t.co/qpzvt3zpKQ
Tax Shifts Can Drive Inflation in General Equilibrium
If your personality is built on claims that taxes are a massive detriment to economic growth and that our economy is dramatically more fossil-fuel-intensive than the data suggest, you might give some thought to what changes in those taxes might...
Rate Holds Loom; Guidance Drives Markets Amid Resilient Equities
Here’s the extracted text from the image: ⸻ The calm before the storm is here 🌊 → 5 central bank rate decisions → US advanced Q1 GDP → PCE deflator (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge) → Eurozone inflation data → Iran headlines still in play None of the...
Warsh Confirmation Sets Stage for June Budget
Now that Warsh is going to be confirmed. Assuming Powell resigns Governor that day. (as he should). Warsh will vote for a cut in June. Waller, Williams, Miran or someone like him & Bowman make 5 votes for...
US Inflation's New Normal Exceeds 2% Threshold
The “new normal” for US inflation is no longer below 2 percent - EXCELLENT series of graphs from Mike Nolan at Reuters. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/awyDZqNpdy
War May Spark Persistent Inflation and Rate Hikes
GS: We Would Worry More About the War Sparking Persistent Inflation and Possible Rate Hikes If Wage Growth Accelerated, Inflation Breath Increased, and Inflation Expectations Beyond This Year Rose https://t.co/aWNwI5lWrW
Goldman Predicts Two More Fed Cuts, Dismisses Hikes
GS: Our Probability-Weighted Fed Forecast Is Much More Dovish Than Market Pricing Because We Expect Two More Cuts This Year and Because We Think That Rate Hikes Are Quite Unlikely https://t.co/JZZ2VNnLfU
April Jobs
We'll have to wait until May 8 for the April jobs report, but we will get ISM Mfg this Friday morning @augurinfinity https://t.co/MZgKbyKAGc
Kevin Warsh Poised to Become 17th Fed Chair
Kevin Warsh is now on track to become the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve when Jay Powell's term concludes on May 15. https://t.co/mPaGC9If1n
Fed's 2% PCE Target: March Data Arrives Thursday
The Fed targets 2% PCE Price Index inflation... we'll get the March read on Thursday @augurinfinity https://t.co/WwdpsZ2jxl
Fed Expands QE Despite Record Markets and Persistent Inflation
The stock market is at an all-time high. Credit spreads are near all-time lows. And inflation has been above the Fed's target level for 61 consecutive months, averaging 4% per year since 2019. So why is the Fed expanding its balance sheet (QE)? Video:...
Tillis Backs Warsh, Signaling Powell's Final Fed Meeting
Senator Tillis just said on TV that he will support Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, which will make next week's Fed meeting Powell’s last. #mortgagerates #bonds #realestate #economics #chartdaddy
U.S. Data Deteriorates Fastest in 2026, Fed Downplays
Hey @grok What piece of U.S. economic data has quietly deteriorated the fastest in 2026 that the Fed and Wall Street are actively downplaying? 🤔
Yield Curve Signals Growth Concerns Amid New Inflation Data
Treasury yields are shifting as traders digest fresh inflation data and Fed signals. The 10-year is moving on growth worries. Keep an eye on the curve for clues on what’s next. 📉💰 BondMarket
Tech Job Loss Fears Unfounded; Employment Near Record Highs
The most basic rebuttal against this worry is that, if technology displaced jobs **in the long-run**, employment rates would be at record lows rather than the near-record *highs* they actually are. 1/2 https://t.co/7iIr6gu3Oi
Powell in Spotlight Amid Central Bank, Tech, Data Frenzy
The busiest week of the year: Five major central banks meet, five mega-cap tech earnings, plus GDP and inflation data. All eyes on Powell Wednesday. 🟢 Open https://t.co/cLDEx6IMRe
Treasury Swaps Shield GCC, Preventing UST Yield Spike
An important point of view (on Treasury-supplied USD swaps for GCC countries) comes from our very own, @GraphCall: https://t.co/RHN9TFGR1f This exchange of currency - without selling held collateral - avoids a GCC-forced dump of UST to get liquidity while oil revenue sales...
70% of Americans Can't Afford Basics, Trump Vulnerable
A CBS News poll found that over 70% of Americans are STRUGGLING to afford essentials such as food, housing, and health care. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP’S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/75TfgjUhJ5
Fed Pumps $17.7 B Liquidity Into Markets This April
MASSIVE The Fed has already injected a total of $12.645 BILLION this month, and another $5 billion is expected to flow in within the next few days. That brings total liquidity injections in April alone to $17.703 billion. https://t.co/d8xIZjDvj4
Housing Market Set to Grow Across All Sectors in 2027
There’s maybe another 3-6 months of softness as builders work down inventories but I think residential construction, resale transactions, new home sales, and home prices will all grow in 2027.
Rate Hikes Hit Federal Debt, Not Corporate Borrowing
This is partially a symptom of fiscal dominance. Rate hikes pushed up federal interest expense rather than corporate interest expense.
US Work Hours Fell as Benefits Grew, Not Wages
US hours per person declined after 2000 in large part due to the rise in benefits available to non-employed eg health-related benefits. In non-US countries a rise in labour supply can generally be accounted for by higher wages, lower fixed...
Tariffs and War Drag US Consumer Sentiment to Record Low
The University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index dropped to an all-time low. TRUMP'S TARIFFS & WAR MADNESS = BAD NEWS FOR THE US ECONOMY. https://t.co/k0nUUAnksC
Senate Banking Committee Schedules Warsh Fed Chair Vote
The Senate Banking Committee has set a committee vote for Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair nomination on Wednesday https://t.co/l3pMHESk0G
FedWatch Shows 84% Chance of 2026 Rate Cut
FedWatch now pricing 84% odds of a rate cut in 2026. I am old enough to remember when the market was pricing in 0% in March, and I won't be surprised when this goes back to zero. Time will tell.
Central Banks Pivot to Demand‑driven Liquidity, Warsh Aligns
With Kevin Warsh's nomination locked in, here's my recent take on central banks' growing shift from supply-driven ample reserves to demand-driven liquidity frameworks. The best version of Warsh's balance sheet ambitions would follow this trend.
Young Non‑college Workers Lose Jobs as College Peers Gain
Since @ngoldschlag and I wrote our piece, the situation has only gotten worse for young non-college workers. Young college workers have actually seen an uptick in employment. Does this look like AI to you? https://t.co/MSlKuOfnK4
No Recession Yet, Just Fear and Hallmarks
There is no recession - it just seems to have a number of the hallmarks of one and there seems to be record levels of concern around one... #recession https://t.co/HBGocSyWzf
Money Supply Surge Outpaces Golden Growth, Fuels Inflation
My take on @PalisadesRadio on America’s inflation problem: "The US will have trouble getting the inflation genie back in the bottle because the money supply has been accelerating for 18 months, growing faster than Hanke's Golden Growth Rate." https://t.co/0f14uwnTFx
Warsh’s Fed Balance Sheet Trim Risks Liquidity Crunch
In other Fed news, my latest on how Warsh plans to shrink the central bank's footprint in financial markets "It’s very clear that the balance sheet cannot be immediately reduced without causing a liquidity crunch that nobody would like," says Darrell...