30‑Year Treasury Yield Hovers Near 5%
Lots of data... yields remain lower this morning... but that 30yr is still close to 5% https://t.co/ol2XJ3StCG
US Q1 GDP Up 2% on Domestic Spending, Export Drag
US GDP grew at an annual rate of 2% in Q1. Growth was mainly driven by consumer spending, business investment, and govt spending, which rebounded from a decline to an increase. Inventory changes also supported growth. However, net exports significantly...
PCE Inflation Peaks at 3.5% Amid Iran Conflict
JUST IN: PCE Inflation jumped to 3.5% in March, the highest in three years (since May 2023). This is a direct result of the war in Iran. And the pain will almost certainly be worse in April and (likely) May. Core...
Initial Jobless Claims Drop 26K, Defying Expectations
"In the week ending April 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 189,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 214,000 to 215,000." https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf Much lower than...
Housing and Economy Stabilize, Reducing 2026 Labor Concerns
Signs of stabilization in the housing market and the economy/consumer weathering the war/energy shock so well have made me significantly less worried about the labor market for the balance of 2026.
Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Level Since 1969
*US JOBLESS CLAIMS 189,000 IN APRIL 25 WEEK; EST. 212K This is the lowest reading since September 1969! (Note: this week is subject to revisions) https://t.co/E7TDSpivny
Core Inflation Steadies at 3.2% as GDP Hits 2%
Core inflation rate hit 3.2% in March, as expected; GDP grew 2% in first quarter: CNBC
Powell Warns Fed Independence Is Under Threat
In today’s Morning Money, I write about Chair Powell’s striking statement that Fed independence is “at risk.” https://t.co/LT9Rd9oAi5
March PCE Inflation Accelerates, Core up 0.3% MoM
the PCE price index for March increased 0.7 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. [YoY] the PCE price index for March increased 3.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.2 percent...
Q1 2026 GDP Grows 2% Annualized, Misses Forecast
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March) This was below expectations. https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-1st-quarter-2026
US Gas Prices Surge to $4.30, Adding $70 Monthly
Oof. The US national gas average just hit $4.30, according to AAA. That's the highest since July 2022. Gas prices have shot up $1.40 since the war in Iran began. That's adding ~$70 extra a month to household costs. #gas #inflation...
Hawkish Push Gains Party Backers, Warsh Not Isolated
The hawkish case is finding political backers from inside the president’s own party, meaning that declining to cut might not leave Warsh isolated within his own coalition. Sen. John Kennedy said inflation is “kind of like a tick.” “If you get a...
Inflation and Growth Outlook Brightens Ahead of Key Data
Economic Calendar for Thurs. April 30th 8:30am - Core PCE m/m for March: Expected 0.3%; Prior 0.4% - Core PCE y/y for March: Expected 3.2%; Prior 3% - PCE m/m for March: Expected 0.7%; Prior 0.4% - PCE y/y for March: Expected 3.5%; Prior 2.8% - GDP growth rate...
Hawkish Fed and 5% Treasury Yield Halt Bitcoin Dip‑Buy
The trifecta finally hit in 18 hours. The Fed delivered what Cointelegraph called the "most hawkish FOMC in years" with four dissents. Brent tagged $125 overnight. And the US 30-year Treasury yield punched through 5% for the first time this...
Central Banks Must Stay Steady Amid War‑driven Turmoil
War shock tests central banks’ resolve Linda Yueh on why policymakers may hold their nerve as inflation rises, growth falters and uncertainty deepens https://t.co/VFosKL0tlX
U.S. Interest Costs Overtake Defense Spending for First Time
The Death Spiral: America Now Spends More on Interest Than Defense Key Takeaways -U.S. interest payments surpassed defense spending in 2024 for the first time in nearly a century. -The gap is projected to widen significantly, with interest costs reaching $2.1 trillion...
U.S. Debt‑to‑GDP Mirrors Post‑
America’s debt to GDP is already at levels you would expect at the end of a war, not the start. That changes everything about what comes next. #gdp #ww3 #bonds
Consensus on “Transitory” Inflation Proved Disastrously Wrong
Yes he let inflation escape but the whole "transitory" thing was one of the biggest consensus views of all time, largely because of what had happened in the previous decade. Nobody could imagine inflation being a problem anymore...
Powell Hailed as Fed Hero for Taming Inflation
This is going to annoy people (sorry...) but Powell is gonna be remembered as a hero at the Fed. Got inflation back down, delivered a soft landing, and stood up to enormous political pressure. Probably leaving at just the right...
Fed Chair's Era May End Amid Messier Meetings
Four dissents. An outgoing chair who isn't leaving. A new chair who wants "messier meetings." Since Greenspan began releasing FOMC statements in '94, reading the Fed meant reading the chair Wednesday raised the possibility that era is ending https://t.co/80GDuqZwql
Fed Independence Lost; Inflation Expectations Spike Amid Rate Dilemma
The Powell saga is a distraction. The Fed’s independence has been gone for a while. To be fair, what did people expect? Inflation is still elevated while debt service is already at unsustainable levels. You either crush the system with high rates, or...
Bond Market Sees 12% Chance of Fed Hike, 5% Cut
The bond market is now pricing in a higher probability of a Fed RATE HIKE (12%) by the end of this year than a RATE CUT (5%). https://t.co/i77bnsp7MR
Fed’s $9 Trillion Money Printing Drove Inflation, Not Supply Shocks
The Fed expanded the money supply by nearly $9 trillion under Powell. Inflation has averaged >4% per year over the past 6 years. Powell's explanation? It was nearly all due to rolling “supply shocks" over which the Fed has no control. The truth:...
Powell’s 2025 Easing May Not Offset Job Losses
"Remember there is a dual mandate at the Fed we have data out this morning that showed 3rd quarter of 2025 the economy lost an average of 53000 jobs a month. The question is was Powell aggressive enough in easing...
Fed Holds Rates Amid Most Divided Vote Since 1992
FOMC: Fed leaves the FFR unchanged at 3.50-3.75% The vote was the most divided FOMC decision since 1992 (8-4 in favour of holding rates).
All Major Rates Climbing: Oil, Yields, Dollar Surge
Higher oil Higher yields Higher dollar Higher USDJPY Higher SOFR Market, show me you care.
2026 More Likely to See Rate Hike Than Cut
🚨 There is now a higher chance of a rate hike than a rate cut in 2026. https://t.co/yKg7oHD4Mv
Monetary Policy Must Adapt to AI-Driven Growth
All you need to know about monetary policy in a world of AI-supercharged growth. ⬇️
Powell to Lose QE Chair, Warsh Takes Over
And here is Powell at the press conference: Regime Change: Powell, Chair of Mega-QE & “Ample Reserves Regime,” to Be Replaced by Warsh, who Wants Smaller Balance Sheet But Powell will stay on as governor until “the investigation is well and...
Fed Cuts Raise 30-Year Yield; Inflation Still Looming
The Fed started cutting rates in Sep 2024 with the 30-year Treasury yield below 4%. They cut rates 175 bps and the 30-year yield is now approaching 5%. The Fed may be done with inflation, but inflation isn’t done with the Fed....
30‑Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5%, Near 18‑Year
*US 30-YEAR YIELD TOUCHES 5% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE JULY 2025 Now just 11 bps from a new 18-year high. https://t.co/Aow1azOUWb
Markets Expect Rate Hike, Not Cut, by April 2027
Markets are now pricing in rate hike rather than a rate cut by the April 2027 meeting. Yup. #FOMC
Explaining Powell Critique Live with Jack Farley, Max Wiethe
I will be on with @JackFarley96 and @maxwiethe in about 15 minutes. And for those torching me on my Powell takes, I will explain further. (For everyone else, Powell is making a terrible mistake by staying.)
Fed Holds Rates, Dissenting Hawk Calls for Cut
Hawks squawk amidst “assaults” The Federal Reserve stayed on the sidelines with rates held in the 3.5to 3.75% range. The statement underscored the uncertainty regarding “developments in the Middle East.” The vote was not unanimous in a very unique way. Governor...
Powell Remains on Fed Board as Rates Hold Steady
You're not quite rid of me. #JeromePowell sez he w/remain as #TheFed governor after his term as chairman ends. Bank holds #interestrates steady. #KevinWarsh era about to begin. Most divisive the board has been in decades. #realestate #CRE #mortgage #Trump...
Tracking Powell's Exit as Signal of Political Pressure End
A new prediction market that I'll be watching to monitor the probabilities around a theme rather than a market: When Jerome Powell will leave the Fed board. Will mark end of political pressure. Similar to Hormuz normality as gauge of...
Fed Chair’s Bold Stand Marks Historic Independence Moment
Three powerful dissents to send a message and a chair taking a strong and clear stance on Fed independence at the podium This is a meeting for the history books, wow https://t.co/mvk7BE5Fdt
Powell Likely to Be Fed’s Final Independent Chair
What are the odds that Jerome Powell is the last independent Fed chair? My take is it's higher than you think
Powell Warns Fed Independence Threatened by Political Pressure
Chair Powell says Fed independence is "at risk." "We're having to resort to the courts to enforce our legal — it's not so much independence. It's really the ability to make monetary policy without political considerations ... We've been successful so...
Powell Adopts PR Role to Defend Fed Independence
Seems Powell is going to take up a pseudo PR role for Fed independence now that he is handing off the Chairmanship role. They are putting out very clear messaging pushing back on the political pressure.
Not a Budget Crisis—Just Overspending on Promises
True. But more generally, please don’t call it a ‘Budget Crisis’ even if he does. It’s not a budget crisis. It’s a crisis of “I can’t pay for all the massive NEW AND IDIOTIC spending I’ve promised.” https://t.co/OpdE81Q0qK
Powell: Neutral Rate Uncertain, but We're Near It
Powell says we can't know what the neutral rate is definitively, but says we are pretty close to it now
Fed Independence Persists: Powell, Warsh Impact Markets & Gold
Post FOMC analysis with @adamtaggart - Fed independence/ Powell staying on / Warsh Fed / implications for markets / gold https://t.co/V94nEWpvPn
Fed's Vague “Adjustments” Reveal FOMC Uncertainty
This was NOT a bias. The Fed statement mentioned it as such in the vaguest ways possible "adjustments" instead of rate cuts, which is a reflection of the fact that the FOMC itself is uncertain abt the outlook.
Powell Says No Rush to Raise Rates Amid Iran Tensions
.@mckonomy: aren't there some that say we might need to hike even absent of the war in Iran? Powell: the dissents were on the downside. It's a form of forward guidance - you want to make it in a way that...
Powell Acknowledges Easing Bias Question, Calls It Good
Q by @NickTimiraos: why is the easing bias still right? What would need to happen? Powell: good question.
Powell Stays on for Lawsuits, Not Politics
Powell says his staying on is not a political statement to deny Trump an appointee - says he is staying on due to the lawsuits. Says he long expected to retire and was looking forward to it
Powell to Remain Fed Governor, Echoing 1948 Precedent
POWELL: WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A GOVERNOR FOR PERIOD OF TIME - Bloomberg **Last time this actually happened? 1948 — Marriner Eccles got the boot as Chair and kept his seat on the Board until 1951. - Grok
Fed Holds Rates Amid Record Dissent, Split Hawk‑Dove
This Fed Meeting Must Have Been a Hoot. Fed Holds Rates amid 4 Dissents, most since 1992: 1 Dovish, 3 Hawkish. “Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.” In part. And in part for other...
Fed Independence Crucial: Expert’s Ready Written Response
He was ready for that question. Written answer - on how important Fed independence is