US Nominal GDP Set to Jump 75% by 2027
BofA Hartnett: US nominal GDP in the midst of an unprecedented 75% surge from 2020 to 2027 https://t.co/S8KY87lUlL
Becoming
I might even be a little more hawkish than this Hammack statement, where I’m no longer as sure about the downside risks to growth and employment: https://t.co/uk3gVJjAZQ
ISM PMI Expected to Edge Higher, Markets Quiet
📊 Pre-Market Brief | Fri, May 1 ─────── 📅 MACRO DATA ISM Manufacturing PMI: Est 53.1 | Prior 52.7 ─────── 💰 MAG 7 EARNINGS None this week 🏛️ FED No Fed speakers today ─────── 🎬 Trade it live 9am NY: https://t.co/66dSROeuCi
Kashkari Urges Fed to Keep Policy Flexible Amid Iran War
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: "Why I dissented" He says the policy statement should signal the next rate move could be a cut or a hike given the broader range of outcomes from the Iran war. He lays out two modalities: a...
Income Growth Stalls, Unemployment Rate Stays Low
BofA: The slowdown in income growth is notable, but it hasn’t coincided with a meaningful rise in the U-rate During recessions, the U-rate rises and real income declines https://t.co/47HVfOmyFP
Card Spending Growth Remains Strong Despite Iran War Shock
BofA: Total card ex gas spending growth continues to run at healthy levels despite the shock from the Iran war https://t.co/EZSBhhElrt
Yellen Pushes Massive Fiscal Spending Despite Recent Money Surge
Yellen (USTreasury then) said it’s “time to go big” fiscal — and of course gets a complete free pass from financial media, why? *Over 40% of all dollars ever created were done so in 2020-2021. cc @NickTimiraos
Q1 Economy Shows Healthy Underlying Momentum, BofA Reports
BofA: Underlying momentum in the economy remained healthy in 1Q Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers (saar, % ch annualized) https://t.co/wG9LR2zOvP
Households Shift to Short-Term Bonds After 2024 Rate Cuts
"Since the Fed started cutting interest rates in 2024, households have been buying the front end of the yield curve and selling the long end" -Apollo Slok
Powell’s Reactive Rate Moves Fueled Inflation, Hurt Jobs
I disagree with @mark_dow on his conclusion, even as I share his frustration with many critics. Powell was a terrible Fed Chair, but he was not responsible for the Covid inflation. He was responsible for an entirely REACTIVE Fed policy that...
Jobless Claims Hit 1969 Low, Labor Market Still Strong
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 30, 2026) Initial jobless claims just hit their lowest level since 1969. Layoffs remain remarkably subdued, and continuing claims are falling too. How long can the labor market hold at these historic lows? https://t.co/YFVWuC2kFi
Spending Rises Despite Flat Real Disposable Income
The economy is growing while real disposable income has been flat for a year. Consumer spending keeps rising anyway. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6amEjlu5DD
Powell Earns C+ for Mishandling Transitory Inflation
My final grade for Jerome Powell: C+ He was generally a fine Fed Chairman. But the "transitory" thing has to ding his grade substantially. Yes, easy to say in hindsight, but the Fed failed to be sufficiently countercyclical during the largest...
Core Services Inflation Surges to 3.7%, Beyond Energy
Inflation in the Entire US economy Is Rocking and Rolling, and It’s Not Just Energy. The 6-month core services PCE inflation index, accelerating since August, hit 3.7% annualized. Chip prices and software wreak havoc amid consumer electronics https://t.co/tJlBtm0nLC https://t.co/BYiIsiCep8
Politicized Monetary Policy Costs Jobs, Prices, Stability
For families and firms, this isn’t academic. If the people steering monetary policy are chosen for cable-news combat rather than analytic clarity, the cost shows up in jobs, prices, and uncertainty. https://t.co/ofgo8OR3dX
Global Rate Divergence Poised to Push Dollar Lower
We are in a new era of global central bank policy divergence. The rest of the world appears to have significantly more room to tighten financial conditions than the US. That divergence is likely to act as a major driver of further...
Tech Manufacturing Surges, Leaving Other Sectors Behind
The "K-shaped" economy has been most evident in US manufacturing, and this is feeding directly through to profit trends in the US equity market. Industrial production, a measure of manufacturing output, shows clearly the degree to which tech single-handedly grew...
Fitch: U.S. Debt Levels Exceed Peer AA Nations
"Fitch Warns US Debt Burden Is ‘Far Above’ Other AA Rated Nations" None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/bA3E6txTHG https://t.co/jfpiadGKWT
US Growth Rebounds, Inflation Resurges; Iran Uncertainty Looms
Came into this year saying US growth would reaccelerate and inflation would become an issue again. Seems pretty clear that was right.... now we just need some clarity on this Iran situation to understand if the first part is still...
Treasury's Hidden QE Fuels Reckless Economic Overheating
Policymakers are running the economy so unbelievably hot right now that I am starting to think it has approached or surpassed recklessness. The Treasury has completely taken over control of the money supply and financial conditions with their ongoing ATI/YCC...
Private‑sector Wage Growth Eases to 3.2% in Q1
Private-sector pay growth decelerated ever so slightly in Q1 when looking at wages and salaries for private sector workers ex-incentive paid occupations. It was +3.2% in Q1 from a year earlier, vs 3.4% in Q4 and +3.6% in the same quarter...
Fed Quietly Admits 2% Target Is Really 3%
Federal Reserve - "We are really committed to our 2% inflation target, we mean 3%." *Special thanks to the Bloomberg terminal. https://t.co/9T3yivFz8n
AI Fuels 2.5% Q1 GDP Growth Amid Shrinking Government Spending
Without Government Spending & Trade, GDP Rose by 2.5% in Q1, Boosted by AI Investments. Debt-to-GDP ratio Ticks up to 122.6%. Consumer Spending Was OK-ish. Federal government spending spiked back partially after collapsing during the shutdown. Trade worsened https://t.co/8UANSTsuey
Cross‑border Debt Now Props the Dollar, Fuels Deficits
These days, the dollar is supported less by the US Navy, and more by all the crossborder dollar-denominated debt outstanding. But the real punchline is that it's also the source of the US structural trade deficits and industrial stagnation.
Energy Surge Signals Crisis, Yet Offers 10x Gains
I'm personally afraid of the coming 3-5 years for the economy and our society. The economy has become fragile amid global uncertainties. A sudden rise in gold isn't a signal of a strong economy; it's the exact opposite. Additionally, the rise in energy...
Interest Payments Overtake Defense Spending, Debt Soars
For the first time since the late 1920s, the U.S. is spending more on interest payments than on national defense. This isn't new—it's been true for two years. However, worth a reminder given the Trump administration's proposed $1.5 trillion defense...
Supply‑side Pressures Threaten US Productivity and Wages
Check out @PrestonMui's latest: The Supply-side May Spoil Warsh's Productivity Story The US economy is facing multiple pressures: tariffs, AI bottlenecks, war...Now healthcare costs are eating into wages Productivity was poor in Q4. Will be in Q1 too https://t.co/RBInolTCWS https://t.co/OAVJH4tUc4
Rate Cuts Done, Fed May Hike by 2027
The interest rate cutting cycle is officially over. With previously forecast rate cuts off the table, the market is now pricing in 50% odds the Fed will hike rates by April 2027. Position accordingly. https://t.co/LBGUwo4wXJ
Tariffs Drive Policy; Deny It, Adopt Hawkish Stance
If you don't think this is driven by tariffs, then you probably should be a lot more hawkish in your monetary policy views (all else equal)
Popular Tax Proposals Fail to Fund Debt Solution
New @TaxFoundation research from @EconoWill on the troubling trajectory of the national debt and the role of tax reform in reaching a solution: the most popular proposals, from wealth taxes to tariffs, cannot produce sustainable revenues sufficient to address the debt...
10-Year Yield Near Breakout, Markets Brace for Volatility
US 10-Year Yields are approaching a crucial breakout zone—are we heading toward the final leg higher? This could trigger volatility across equities and signal a major macro shift. 👉 Read the full analysis: https://t.co/O1bdBUqOoi https://t.co/tP9WV8oG6w
Warsh Takes Fed Helm, Signals Lower Short Rates
Bonds have remained eerily quiet and continue to sit near the apex of a long triangle. With Kevin Warsh now about to take the helm of the Fed, we are about to enter what we might call the Warsh-Bessent Treasury-Fed...
Debt Crisis Deepens; Simple Tax Hikes Won’t Fix It
🚨New report out today on the unsustainable federal debt trajectory, what's driving it, and what tax policy can do about it. Several fun charts but not a pretty picture. Hopefully dispels the myths of easy solutions, such as tax hikes...
Fed's Rate Moves Defy Crisis Predictions
The Fed kept rates at 0% for a long time Lots of pundits predicted it would lead to a crisis and maybe even hyperinflation Didn't happen Then they raised rates b/c of the pandemic inflation Still no crisis Why? https://t.co/JqtrhQ1AHs https://t.co/g75B9IkwoQ
US Economy Proves Teflon Against Decade’s Crises
One of the big lessons of the 2020s is the US economy can sustain massive disruptions and keep chugging along The pandemic Supply chain shocks 9% inflation Rising rates Tariffs War Now oil It's the Teflon economy https://t.co/SrFxevPWeG
Consumer Spending Rises, Driven Solely by Necessities
Really ugly consumer spending number, with nearly all of the increase going to gasoline, health care, and financial services - aka necessities. https://t.co/c769eaCaLK https://t.co/0fOen66jNp
Powell's Fed Tenure Remains a High-Stakes Gamble
NEW: Powell has often said the Fed faces "no risk-free paths" as it contends w/ economic shocks that lift inflation and dent growth. The same could be said for his momentous decision to stay on at the Fed as a...
War Saves Fed From Failed Inflation Forecast
Yep, though the Fed will never admit they had a failing inflation forecast. The war bailed them out.
AI Spending Won’t Shield Economy From Recession
Q1 GDP is out, and the strongest piece of the economy is business investment (data center construction and AI spending). People will try to tell you AI can keep us out of a recession. Don't believe them. The facts say otherwise. https://t.co/uRz236P0fY
Card Spending Rises 7% as K‑Shape Widens at Top
💳BofA: “Total card spending per HH was up 7.2% y/y in the week ending Apr 25, according to BAC aggregated credit & debit card data. Ex gas spending was up 6.4% y/y, in part due to favorable base effects from...
Business Investment Outpaces Consumer Spending in Q1 GDP
Business investment contributed **more** to GDP in Q1 than consumer spending. This is an AI economy now. Business investment contribution to Q1 GDP: 1.48 Personal consumption contribution to Q1 GDP: 1.08 (Joey's great chart shows the biz investment in green vs. consumption in yellow)
U.S. Debt Surpasses GDP for First Time Since 1946
The national debt just exceeded 100% of GDP for the first time since 1946: https://t.co/VSDBUUTaUH https://t.co/95ff7qRwJG
Low Savings Rate Signals Confidence, Not Financial Discipline
The saving rate is income minus disposable spending. It does NOT include investment performance (such as stock or housing prices rising). So, I view the saving rate as a sentiment indicator. It is low because households don't need to hold...
Data Centers Drive 70% of Q1 GDP Growth
Few #eco data takeaways Standout to me is that non-resi investment (basically data centers) were +1.4% of 1Q's +2.0% GDP growth. https://t.co/5NFKB6nOiS
US Savings Rate Hits 3.6%, Leaving Households Vulnerable
Important: The US savings rate fell to 3.6% in March. That's the lowest since fall 2022 (the "revenge spend" era). And it's frankly one of the lower readings of all time. American households are getting squeezed. Many are not able to save...
GDP Masks Inflation Surge and Export Drag
Q1 GDP printed +2.0% vs +2.3% expected and the bulls are calling it resilient. Look closer. PCE inflation just ran +0.7% MoM in March, hottest since 2022, while net exports subtracted 1.3pp from growth on a tariff-rebound import surge. The...
Core PCE Hits 3.2%, Prompting Likely Fed Hike
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) came in at 3.2% in March, the highest level since November 2023. This was the 61st consecutive reading above the Fed's 2% target level. There will be no Fed rate cut in...
U.S. Debt Surpasses GDP, Tops 100% Threshold
The U.S. national debt now exceeds 100% of gross domestic product, crossing a once-unthinkable threshold, by @RichardRubinDC @WSJ. As of March 31, publicly held federal debt equaled 100.2% of 12-month trailing nominal GDP, up from 99.5% on Sept. 30. ...
AI Drives Record Business Investment, Consumer Spending Stalls
This is the AI economy now. Just incredible to see the +10.4% jump in business investment in Q1. That's the highest since Q2 2023 (when the big semiconductor factory buildout was underway. Now it's all AI) Notice consumption: +1.6%. That's pretty tepid....
Averages Mask Reality: Who Really Benefits From Rising Wages?
The “average worker” is a statistical ghost. Useful on a spreadsheet. Dangerous in real life. Because when people say “wages are rising,” the first question should be: For whom? Averages can describe the economy. They can also erase the people living under it.🧵👇