April Payroll Deposits Hit Two‑and‑half‑year High
"Payrolls growth in Bank of America customer deposit account data was strong in April." "the highest growth in two-and-a-half years" https://t.co/YCyshtAbPV
Credit Card Debt Growth Slows, Disproving Hassett's Forecast
FWIW, the growth in credit card debt has slowed sharply https://t.co/wbA0n3Maew That's not necessarily good or bad, but it does mean Hassett is wrong on this.
US Government Borrowing Now Mirrors External Deficits
"net US liabilities reached 24 per cent of global output in 2024 against a mere 6 per cent in 2008, and... the US private sector has moved into balance. So, the domestic counterpart of its external deficits today is borrowing...
Wealth Tax Seen as Economic Wrecking Ball, California Proposes One
The socialist republic California has proposed a 5% tax on billionaires. Amazing. ALMOST ALL the welfare states in Western Europe have recently abolished wealth taxes. WEALTH TAX = ECONOMIC WRECKING BALLS. https://t.co/vLIpu6f7GO
NY Fed Index Hits Covid-Level Supply Chain Disruptions
🇺🇸 The NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index jumped in April to Covid-like disruption levels. https://t.co/ywfPzNS5oq https://t.co/23NKq4esGS
Labor Market Outperforms Expectations with Hiring Surge
We've been in the camp the labor market was stronger than what most thought. Big jump in hiring last month and a tick up in quits. We don't think people would be quitting if they didn't have better options. A big...
Treasury Repo Investment Could Slightly Lower Rates
TGA invested in repo idea 101 A little tidbit in the weeds that will definetly get overblown by people on here Currently the treasury keeps its checking account with the Fed. Which because it's part of the consolidated balance sheet of...
Powell Defended Fed Independence, yet Made Costly Mistakes
Just published: My take on Jerome Powell’s complicated legacy--one of resilience in defending Fed independence, weighed against missed opportunities to enhance effectiveness and costly errors beyond just monetary policy. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/powell-legacy-fed-defender-but-also-policy-mistakes-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2026-05 #economy #federalreserve #markets @prosyn
May 6: ADP Dip and Three Fed Speeches
Economic Calendar for Wed. May 6th 8:15am - ADP employment change for April: Expected -$66B; Prior -$140.5B 9:30 - Fed’s Musalem speaks 1:00pm - Fed’s Goolsbee speaks 1:30 - Fed’s Hammack speaks
Same‑store Sales Hit 4‑year High at 7.8% YoY
Same-store retail sales grew 7.8% YoY in the week ending May 2 (7.7% prev), a fresh +4-year high.
US Gas Prices Break $4.5 per Gallon Mark
For the first time since 2022, US gasoline average retail price tops $4.5 per gallon.
Tariffs Yield Minimal Deficit Gains, Need Systemic Policy
WSJ: "The figures measure the limited progress made toward the Trump administration’s goal of reducing the deficit in the 12 months after President Trump rolled out steep global tariffs in April 2025." Not much surprise here. Trade policies only work if...
Looser Firing Rules Boost Productivity, Wages, Modestly Affect Unemployment
"Labor Market Fluidity and Aggregate Productivity" https://t.co/KoT8flEFKs "easing dismissal restrictions... raises labor productivity, output, and wages, while the unemployment rate responds only modestly" https://t.co/jfr8AjboI2
Falling Home Prices Spur Sales Amid Southern Inventory Surge
New Single-Family Home Prices Drop Further amid Inventory Glut. But Lower Prices Beget Higher Sales. Inventory in the South still sky-high, up 60% from March 2019. But homebuilders understand what it takes: lower prices and big incentives https://t.co/fiwKwIBlMq https://t.co/6wTyZGUENq
Stagflation Signals Policymakers May Look Through Inflation
Today’s ISM report was yet another very stagflationary report. Prices paid spiked to 3-year highs, while employment fell to 2-year lows. How will policymakers respond if this persists? They will ease into weakness and look through inflation. https://t.co/jC5yXTTjzf https://t.co/ObkzsVTJFG
Fed Rate Cut Near S&P Peak Predicts Future Decline
In December, the Fed cut rates within 2% of an all-time high for the S&P 500. We shared this table back then and noted that stocks had never been lower a year later. https://t.co/ujCQTFGTz6
Rising Gas Prices Spark Imminent Food Inflation Wave
This is a concerning chart but grounded in reality. The surge in gasoline prices is likely leading commodity grains. The next wave of food inflation is already here. https://t.co/jC5yXTTjzf https://t.co/ZOCR2jO7nt
2026 US Goods Trade Balance Mirrors 2024, Not 2025
New data from the Census today show that, adjusted for inflation, the 2026 US goods trade balance is essentially unchanged vs the same period in 2024. (2025 is wildly distorted bc of an import surge due to tariff front-running.) https://t.co/f779W6FJZL https://t.co/eTPHLFMM9T
Service Sector Holds, Inflation High, Jobs Still Negative
All things considered, the ISM service sector activity report was a 'fairly good' outcome. Headline sector activity only edged lower. Inflation pressures leveled out - at high levels however. Employment component bounces but still net negative: https://t.co/RbXrCgQUjB
Tariffs Yield Minimal Deficit Reduction After One Year
"The figures measure the limited progress made toward the Trump administration’s goal of reducing the deficit in the 12 months after President Trump rolled out steep global tariffs in April 2025." 😯
Blue Line Signals Urgent Need for Rate Cuts
Narrative status That blue dotted line needs rate cuts or coupon auction cuts SOON Following that purple line now 28 days. Dipping east south east https://t.co/mcOBDLMz1a
QRA's Pause Fuels Asset Rallies, Inflates Debt
The last time the QRA mattered we pivoted from short to long when Janet decided to stop increasing coupon issuance. Every QRA since has left issuance unchanged. Tomorrow will be no different. It's suppressed bond yields from going...
Accelerating Money Supply Drives Recent US Inflation Spike
My take on @soarfinancial on RISING US INFLATION: "US CPI jumped from 2.4% in Feb. to 3.3% in Mar. That DIDN'T SURPRISE ME because the money supply has been ACCELERATING for the last 18 months. When that happens, with a lag,...
New‑home Sales Surge as Prices Hit 2021 Low
New home sales beat expectations, jumping to a 682,000 annualized pace in March. A new home at the right price is finding a buyer. Median new home prices fell to their lowest since 2021—below existing home prices—helping support sales as...
Potential Multi‑Rate Hikes Create UST & SOFR Opportunities
Should the Fed in the next 12 months decide that it needs to hike rates, high odds it will need to hike more than once and more than 25 bps. UST and SOFR curves offering interesting opportunities
New Home Sales Rise; Median Prices Slip 16%
New Home Sales Increase to 682,000 Annual Rate in March Median New Home Price is Down 16% from the Peak due to Change in Mix https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-sales-increase-to-682000
U.S. Job Openings Stable at 7 Million, Vacancy Ratio Near 1
U.S. job openings have been stable, and the three-month moving average stood at 7 million in March There were 0.94 job vacancies for every worked counted as unemployed in March, in line with the recent trend. https://t.co/03wCHzdWaT
Morning Economic Data Shows Low Price Payments
Few takeaways from morning eco data incl #ism and #jolts. Really not much to report save for prices paid on the low side. https://t.co/uaSn4LbnDk
Rising Oil and Rates Signal Impending Housing Collapse
Oil, rates, and housing – here's what I see coming: • Oil to $120-150 by fall • 10-year yield at 4.43% and climbing • Housing market about to get crushed • Higher fuel = recessionary You're spending the same but getting less." oil #economy #recession #housing...
Markets Hold Steady Amid Geopolitical Turmoil Ahead of ISM
Markets are taking geopolitical chaos in stride. ✅ NASDAQ at record highs ✅ Oil down 3.5% ✅ Gold up ✅ USD lower vs majors (except JPY) ✅ RBA hikes, signals pause All eyes on the 10am ISM print - the real tell...
Forecasters Missed Both 1990s Productivity Surge and 2000s Slowdown
GS: Forecasters Were Slow to Anticipate Both the Productivity Acceleration of the Late 1990s and the Subsequent Slowdown That Began in the Mid-2000s https://t.co/qp0mIBZocJ
Inflation Set to Surge Amid Deficits, Oil, Tight Labor
Another bout of inflation is largely baked in the cake. Deficit still at 5.8% of GDP despite DOGE. Strait of Hormuz keeping oil elevated. Immigration restrictions tightening labor supply just as capex boom creates new hiring demand. Wage growth is turning...
Tight Jobs and Strong Services May Spike Rate Pressure
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – May 5, 2026 🚨 Big data cluster this morning — services PMI + JOLTs could move rates and sentiment fast 👀 🗓️ Economic Events: 0830 - Trade Balance (Mar): Exp -$60.9B; Prior -$57.3B 0945 - S&P Services PMI (Apr):...
Treasury Cuts Inflation Table, Keeps only CPI, Food, Energy
Treasury's latest economic report to the TBAC (private-sector advisers on public debt issuance) slimmed down its inflation table, dropping core inflation measures along with a range of subcategories. What's remaining: headline CPI, food, and energy. Q1 (left) vs Q2 (right) https://t.co/XQ4paUIFqa
10‑Year Inflation Expectation Peaks at 2.5%
Inflation expectations over the next 10 years have risen to the highest level since 2023, to 2.5%, according to breakeven rates. https://t.co/x2ujJFz6iY
Fed Injects $7.6B Amid Oil Crisis Volatility
The Fed will inject $7,585,000,000 into the economy today at 9am ET, just before US market open. This is happening due to the oil crisis and extreme market volatility. https://t.co/RV7DQnb0Ci
Remote Rural Workers Feeling Stuck as Quit Rates Drop
✍️ @sarahoconnor_ @ftopinion 💥Quit rates↘️ in US &UK 👉”…people who switched to remote work during the pandemic and moved to rural areas might now be a little trapped in those jobs” https://t.co/VM01o0P5mu
Deportations Drive Sharp Drop in Domestic Worker Employment.
Employment of domestic workers decreased in sectors with greatest levels of deporations. Our core competence has become own goals. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-27/us-population-growth-slows-significantly-due-to-less-immigration?cmpid=eveus&utm_campaign=eveus&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=260504&utm_content=4131
Bond Yields Rise, Yet Manufacturing Gains Momentum
Bond yields are rising on inflation fears while factory orders just posted their strongest gain in months and manufacturing keeps expanding. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/ra2hKn68G2
Bond Market Flags Risk as 30‑Year Yield Tops 5%
The 30-Year Treasury yield closed above 5% today and it not far from its highest level in more than a decade. The stock market may be ignoring Iran and Inflation, but the bond market is not. Video: https://t.co/2JUqFjVZ49
30‑Year Yield Breaks 5%, War Sparks Bond Vigilantes
Today, the U.S. 30-year benchmark bond yield pierced the important 5% resistance level, ending at 5.02%. Bonds severely underperform in wartime. With the war on Iran, the bond vigilantes ride again. They will teach WARMONGER Trump a lesson. https://t.co/sNxVUqdYwF
Factory Construction Collapses, Consumer Confidence Hits Historic Low
For reality fans, factory construction is plummeting, and consumer confidence is at a record low, But as they say, TALE: Trumpers Always Lie about Everything.
Fed's Dual Mandate Fuels Record Long-Term Rate Surge
Long-term Exploitation of Extraordinary Monetary Policy Tools, a Fed utilizing either side of it's Dual Mandate to justify lower, a lack of inflation, including CPI & PCE understating reality, helped foster the continuation of an incredible LT bull market in...
Critical Rate Threshold Threatening Big‑Cap Tech Stocks
At what level would long term interest rates need to be to negatively impact big cap tech stocks? $NDX
May Jobs Report Signals Crucial Monetary Policy Direction
The May jobs report is coming at a critical point for monetary policy. I'll be sharing my analysis on what the data signals for rates, growth, and more in this month's In The Know later this week. What else would...
NY
Old Wall Willy, thanks for coming out, eh bud > New York Fed's Williams says policy well positioned, but sees risks to both sides of dual mandate https://t.co/oglUihNRPZ
Rising Inflation, Higher Rates Signal Sell Housing Stocks
If you had our Macro Inflation Accelerating and Rates Rising Nowcast, you would not belong this stock or Housing $ITB $LEN https://t.co/2zbacX6GvP
Treasury Yields Surge; Fed Cuts Needed to Reach 6%
Bond Market on Edge: Treasury Yields Spike, 30-Year to 5.03%, Mortgage Rates to 6.52%, as Gulf War Reheats. Which raises a question: How many more Fed rate cuts would it take in this inflationary era to drive the 30-year Treasury yield...
FOMC Unity Masks Dissent; Expect USD Short on Hawkish Fed
Macro: FOMC consensus exceeds visible dissent. Key factor: uncertainty amplified votes. Risk: markets may overreact to perceived division. Trade: buy USD short on Fed's hawkish tilt. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD,CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
March Factory Orders Surge 1.5%, Confirming Recovery
March factory orders came in really strong. Forecasts were expected to be +.4% but came in at +1.5%, the highest levels since 2022, another confirmation of the industrial recovery underway. https://t.co/qci0SP0fCx