US Economy Social Media and Updates
US Economy Social Media and Updates
The Dow just entered correction territory. Down 10% from its peak, joining the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 posted its fifth straight losing week — longest since 2022. Oil blew through $100. Futures traders now price a 52% chance the Fed RAISES rates this year. One month ago that was 5%. The investment framework that worked since 2022 — rate cuts coming, inflation falling — is being dismantled one data point at a time.
.@grok what do you think the answer is for possible rate hikes in 2026, as opposed to the three cuts? 1. Wars 2. Tariffs 3. Stopping illegal, and dirt cheap, immigration
Per @grok If 2026 plays out like the 1970s oil shock (Nixon Pres): Stocks: S&P crashes another 40%+ (total ~45-50% drawdown) Oil: $150–$200+/bbl as Hormuz pain drags Rates: Fed funds rips to double digits (teens possible)
"The U.S. goods trade deficit with China shrank 32% to $202 billion last year..., the narrowest since 2005. Yet the overall U.S. goods trade deficit grew 2.1% to a record $1.24 trillion because U.S. importers shifted rapidly to other markets"...
Trump bragged that his tariffs are making so much money, he will be able to send stimulus checks to every American. The truth: tariff revenue is a drop in the bucket in reducing the federal deficit. Source: Peterson Institute
The market was pricing a 100% chance of rate cuts in February. That number is now 16%. The Fed put is dead.
Stagflation when the US government has nearly $40 trillion in debt is a depression. Few.
Citi holds firm on S&P 500 target despite Iran tensions and the current market pullback ... the market won't bottom until the sellside slashes YE targets https://t.co/wcQjQH879W
Mortgage interest rates are hitting 7 percent and sellers are locked into COVID era mortgages that are in negative real interest rate territory. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/jUHCvyVvDx
I think this data is more revealing of what's happened in the last 20-25 yrs. The NY Fed has tracked the proportion of underemployed recent college grads in good-paying jobs v. low-paying jobs. The proportion in good-paying has dropped sharply....
Ferguson’s Law, proposed by Sir Niall Ferguson: when a great power spends more on debt service than on defense, it risks losing its status as a great power. The U.S. crossed that line. Net interest at ~3.1% of GDP exceeds defense at ~3.0%. DEBT...
If CPI were to trend up to 5% over the next year in the unlikely event that rbob futures kept rolling up to the current spot price...what is the 10 year yield and what has to happen to SPX earnings...
The other chart we all gotta check daily. 👉 U.S. 10 Year Treasury 💥Almost hit 4.5% today😦 https://t.co/DVVhNkPrqm
A special shoutout to Fed guy @josephwang. During our chat Joseph gave a beautiful breakdown of the lagged effects of monetary policy and how that feeds into the current decision making framework and then 3 hours later when @fejau_inc interviewed...
Ed Yardeni warns the Fed could face a policy bind if the Iran war triggers stagflation, caught between its dual mandate. https://t.co/AEdPXCYmJy
US DEBT HAS HIT $39T AND IS CLIMBING. As I wrote in Fortune with Dave Walker, former US Comptroller General, US Treasury data show, black on white, that Uncle Sam is INSOLVENT. https://t.co/qKKcJtEuEk
Eliminating the wage cap on Social Security taxes & capping benefits severs the link between what you pay in and what you get out, making the payroll tax more distortionary. Make SS more like an individual notional account, not a welfare...
UMich biggest sour swing since April 2025.. 1yr inflation expectations surge to 3.8%... but the long-term inflation outlook was down a tick https://t.co/jKnBGuulSH
U.S. consumers will be among the hardest hit by Trump’s tariff policies & the Iran war. The OECD raised its U.S. inflation estimation for this year to 4.2% — an increase of 1.2 percentage points, the 4th largest uptick among all...
US Consumer Sentiment just fell in March to 53.3, one of the lowest readings of all time. The only lower readings? Nov/Dec 2025 after longest gov't shutdown April/May 2025 after 'Liberation Day' tariffs June/July 2022 during inflation spike Americans are struggling to navigate all...
The OECD warns that US inflation will surge to 4.2% this year. As I predicted, the inflation genie will not be put back in the bottle and will remain one of Trump’s Achilles’ heels.
NEW w/ @bencasselman: Throughout a series of economic shocks that pushed up consumer prices in the past five years, Americans maintained faith that the Fed would eventually get inflation under control. The war with Iran presents another shock that is...
Three scenarios for the Iran war and what they mean for Fed policy under new leadership. Plus eight key takeaways from the latest FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/Tx6udRxjvm
This is one of my favourite charts. It shows how the economy emerged from WW2 with a lot more worker power.. and then post-1979 neoliberalism crushed it. sorry folks, we aint gonna get another wage-price spiral https://t.co/KydXL5zIer
Ed Yardeni tells CNBC he expects "none and done" from the Fed this year—no rate hikes ahead. https://t.co/Ml4LwB5aky
Today's policy speeches from Jefferson and Barr continue to push the Fedlock hawkishness measure even higher. https://t.co/PYi7b3edxv
The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast for March is 4.46%, up slightly from the BLS value for the previous month. https://t.co/fmDwn7KNXM https://t.co/DQnoKpB7NE
Man, it's hard to look at the unemployment data and see a bearish economy. https://t.co/IZjRJlefW9
Oil shocks don’t just drive up inflation. They also increase unemployment. In the context of an already weak labor market, GS estimates the Iran oil shock will increase the unemployment rate by 20-40 basis points by the end of the year. Source:...
The US Labor Market Confounds with its Countercurrents. It May Be the New Normal Labor Market. The Fed has also struggled in dealing with this labor market https://t.co/5TJNIc4U16 https://t.co/JLm2HmsMRX
The Weekly Quill — Letting it Bleed Broad Economy Saps Shelter Inflation From @dimartinobooth and #JonathanBasile of QI Research https://t.co/OdXHMzZrUu #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy #shelter #inflation https://t.co/wCt4RAq1nh
Confirming recent rumors that the Administration will send the FY2027 budget request to Congress next week, Sen Approps Cmte chair Susan Collins tells Politico it's supposed to arrive at the end of next week. https://t.co/eF2p9GpD3K Vought to testify to...
U.S. real median household income 2017: $71,870 2018: $74,030 2019: $78,250 2020: $81,580 2021: $81,270 2022: $79,500 2023: $82,690 2024: $83,730 Calendar-year 2025 income report (which will contain the official 2025 median household income) should drop around September 2026) Source: U.S. Census...
As long as Hormuz stays closed (which is highly likely near term), 10y UST yields will likely keep rising until either Fed or Treasury are forced to inject USD liquidity (into an oil spike & increasingly fracturing global supply chains)...
Mortgage rate: 6.43%. Mortgage applications: -10.5% in a week. The housing market isn't slow. It's frozen. Nobody's buying. Nobody's selling. The Fed's "one cut" forecast isn't saving anyone at the closing table. $XHB $TLT $SPY https://t.co/4lS8cSAOkb
Of note: Up 7 basis points so far today, the yield on the US 10-year government bond is currently trading above 4.40%. #economy #markets #bonds
10-year yield was sub 4% at the start of the war. Now it's over 4.4%. Worst month for $TLT since December 2024 https://t.co/OmX97S6MQ1
Why would we borrow *more* to build a savings fund? Unless we're going to get our fiscal house in order and fund gov't spending differently, I don't understand the rationale here. Further, federal resource revenues are small. The vast majority...
CPI in February: 2.4%. Cleveland Fed CPI forecast for March: 3.02%. PCE tracking toward 3.14%. Inflation isn't cooling. Inflation is re-accelerating. The Fed hiked into this once. They'll do it again. $TLT $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/2TPM7EbXp5
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) is now > the Federal Funds Effective Rate (red) and CPI (green). If you believe the 2-Year leads the FFER, there's less likelihood of a rate cut anytime soon. https://t.co/73ZCycQNlj
Gas was $2.93/gallon a month ago. It's $3.88 now. That's a 32% jump. The consumer was already stretched. Now they're paying it at the pump. Inflation isn't just a Fed problem. It's a kitchen table problem. $SPY $XLE https://t.co/eyD0h4taV8
"For the US, the OECD expects inflation to jump to 4.2% this year... Its price outlook for this year is 1.2 percentage point higher than in December, also because the labor market remains tight with slowing net migration and tariffs...
Back in the day, on average, you could get 6-6.5% on 5-7yr Treasurys @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/rb6v4PeHGs
Gallup: Only 28% of US employees now say it is a good time to find a quality job. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/u0BrFnPngN
"Compared with February 2025, the import price index excluding petroleum climbed 2.8% — the most since October 2022 and suggesting the tariff burden is falling primarily on US importers." (The index here does not include tariffs.) https://t.co/BThM0jjJxj https://t.co/QmsfwHVOLd
"For every five dollars the government receives in tax revenue, one dollar is spent on servicing the national debt" https://t.co/GZLf2MrQBV https://t.co/2mBzfPVgm2
"In the week ending March 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 205,000."
The headline is 4.2 % US INFLATION The real story is STAGFLATION Longer war = higher energy prices Higher energy prices = inflation + weaker growth The only uncertainty is how long it lasts. #OECD #Oil #Inflation #Stagflation #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Geopolitics #Growth #oott...
🧵Let me take you back to August 1990. Three weeks ago, Iraq invaded Kuwait, oil prices have surged, and the FOMC is meeting to decide how to respond. The economy looks wobbly. Payrolls just recorded a small decline. Greenspan talks...
Six months ago: markets pricing 3+ rate cuts. Now: pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING. The Fed didn't pivot. The Fed reversed. 37% chance of ZERO cuts in 2026. This isn't a soft landing. This is a regime change. $SPY $TLT $QQQ https://t.co/UxC4Gdd51F
