Restaurant Wages Outpace Inflation with 4.4% Rise
average hourly pay up 3.6% YOY, not much above inflation, but low-paid restaurant workers are doing better, 4.4% YOY increase
Jobs Beat Expectations, but Wages Remain Weak
This is a better jobs report than I expected but AHE was weak. This needs to improve.
Manufacturing Employment Drops 66K, Now 7.9%
Manufacturing again loses jobs, down 2k. Over the last year employment is down 66K. It's now 7.9% of total employment.
Construction Job Growth Stalls, March Revised to 16k
Construction job growth weak at 9k, March number revised down from 26k to 16k. Growth over the last year has averaged just 4k a month.
Job‑leaver Share Drops to 11.3% Amid 4
share of job leavers among unemployed falls to 11.3%, very low for a 4.3% unemployment rate
Payrolls Beat Forecasts, Unemployment Steady at 4.3%
A good news jobs report: Payrolls grew +115k (beating expectations of 55k), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%. Revisions a bit negative: Feb revised down -23k, and March revised up +7k. Over the past 3 months we're creating +48k...
US Treasuries Focus on Soft Wages, Steady Unemployment
USTs keying on soft wages and steady UER and shaking off headline beat. It seems
Jobs Surge, but Inflation Threatens Wage Gains
JUST IN: Good news. The US economy added a strong 115,000 jobs in April (and March was revised higher to 185,000!) The unemployment rate stayed at 4.3%. Hiring was strong in healthcare (about 1/3 of job gains in April), retail...
April Jobs Rise Modestly; Annual Hiring Stalls
"Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent" Above consensus. Previous 2 months revised down. Only 251 thousand jobs added over last year.
April Adds 115K Jobs, Unemployment Holds at 4.3%
The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. March hiring was revised up by 7,000 and February was revised down by 23,000.
April NFP Surpasses Forecast, Unemployment Steady at 4.3%
April Non-Farm Payrolls print at 115K vs expected 65K- Previously 185K Unemployment Holds 4.3% as expected #NFP
CPI and NFP Scheduled Unusually Close Together
I don't remember the last time if ever that CPI (coming Tues) and NFP were releaseed so closely bunched up.
Boomer Savings Power Resilient Spending Amid Stagnant Incomes
Consumer spending keeps defying gravity as Baby Boomers tap their nest eggs. The gen-shaped economy explains why resilience continues despite lackluster income growth. 🟢 Open https://t.co/9JCPgu5pg4
NFP Preview: Slower Job Gains, Stable Unemployment
US April Nonfarm Payrolls Report due in 30 minutes Jobs Est.: +65,000 (Prev +178k) Unemployment Rate Est.: 4.3% (same as prev) Average Hourly earnings Est.: 0.3% (Prev 0.2%) More green than red for the NFP leading indicators 👇 Going live at 8:15AM NY...
Tax Cuts without Spending Cuts Simply Increase the Deficit
Lemme ’splain: calling it a “big beautiful bill” doesn’t make the maths prettier. If you cut taxes and don’t cut spending, the deficit goes up. That’s not ideology. That’s just arithmetic wearing sensible shoes. https://t.co/s6DzR88EeI
Oil Shock to Accelerate Long‑Term Yield Rise
I'm doing my usual live stream tomorrow morning at 9 am (ET). I'll be focusing on all things debt, especially the rise in long-term yields and why the latest shock - the rise in oil prices due to the war...
Hormuz Closure Could Add 0.6% to 2026 Inflation
Even under a cautiously optimistic scenario in which the closure of the Strait of Hormuz lasts for 1 quarter, the surge in oil prices is expected to raise US headline inflation by 0.6 percentage points and core inflation by 0.2...
Productivity Outpaces Wages as Profits Soar, Jobs Surge
Productivity just hit 2.9% growth while unit labor costs rose only 1.2%. Corporate profit margins are at record highs, yet jobless claims just touched their lowest level since 1969. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/60Jnyrcac0
Low‑Wage Workers Gained 15% Pay, Not Recovery
This Was Not Recovery. It Was Damage Repair. There is a version of the post-pandemic wage story that sounds almost optimistic. Low-wage workers finally saw real gains. For once, the bottom of the labor market moved faster than the top. For once, the people...
Rare Clean Jobs Report Arrives On Schedule, No Asterisks
Feels like the first time in ages we’re getting a clean jobs report on time and with no asterisks, looking forward to chatting about it with @IrvingSwisher: https://t.co/IBdjzH5es9
Data‑center Slowdown Warns of Broader Economic Weakness
Point72 on signaling a weakening consumer. They were bullish last year and sounding more cautious at the moment. AI spending is truly carrying the economy. My 2c: If/when we see a drop in data center buildout we can expect a weak...
Taxing Billionaires Isn’t Enough; Millionaires Must Pay
Why should we be concerned about this? Because America can't fund a welfare state -- or anything at all, really -- by just taxing billionaires more. WE NEED TO TAX MILLIONAIRES. https://t.co/SD4asFDt2C
Mortgage Rate Rally Falters Amid Rising Yields, Weak Jobs Outlook
Is this week's mortgage rate rally already running out of steam? Bond yields are back up, oil prices are back up, mortgage rates no longer falling... And we have another jobs report tomorrow with a very low bar to clear, just 55k...
US Labor Share Hits Record Low Since 1947
Labor's share of output (nonfarm business) fell to 54.1% in the first quarter, the lowest since records begin going back to 1947. "not so good news for society and our politics" - @KrishnaRSGuha https://t.co/D58YlaQefG
Business Service Job Openings Plunge, JOLTs Overlooked
I feel like not enough attention was paid to the recent JOLTs data and the cratering in business service jobs openings 👀 https://t.co/4WhPmhKNjf
Gas Price Surge Squeezes Low‑Income Shoppers,
"Executives are worried about US shoppers with tighter budgets amid surging gas prices caused by the conflict in the MidEast. Rising fuel costs are impacting low-income consumers who are dipping into savings and have less money for discretionary spending like eating...
GDP Tracking Nudged up to 2.2%, Q2 Stays 1.7%
GS: We boosted our past quarter GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.2%. We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.7%
April Employment Gains Exceed Expectations, Averaging 90k Jobs
GS: We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 75k in April Alternative measures of employment growth were solid on average in April: the indicators we track averaged +90k. https://t.co/wtN2KqTdTO
High US Oil Prices Yet Recession Odds Remain Low
So US oil prices are remaining at very lofty levels with inevitable carry over effects on US (and global) GDP...but the probability of a recession has dropped to pre-war lows? Either the economy is less dependent on energy or we...
Fed Sets Rates by Labor, Not GDP Growth
i don’t know when commentators adopted this perspective, but the fed doesn’t adjust interest rates based on GDP growth. and no, they would not do so to offset the balance sheet. credible arguments would be to cut rates to get to...
Early 2020 Economic Indicators Outperformed Despite Recession Fears
One thing about Pre Covid data. Jan & Feb 2020 data pre Covid was good, the recession calls were wild in 2019 due to the trade war & rates, but almost every forward-looking economic data we had was outperforming the first...
NY Fed Inflation Expectations Hit 3.6%, Markets Unfazed
The New York Fed's consumer inflations expectations measure advanced to 3.6% - matching the highest reading since Sep 2023. Markets were already factoring in the inflation uptick it seems. No pop from the Dollar and Fed Fund futures forecast for 2026...
High Debt Limits Future Crisis Response Options
Here’s the thing: debt isn’t exploding tomorrow, but the trajectory matters. If you enter the next war, recession, or pandemic already heavily indebted, you have less room to respond when you actually need it. https://t.co/EPZhyJcRrX
US Economy: Mixed Signals Highlight Strengths and Weaknesses
Great look at the good and the bad of the overall US economy from @sonusvarghese of @CarsonResearch right here. https://t.co/dRBQaZ4h4O https://t.co/r75iTg6qRz
Powell Calls Inflation “Well Anchored” As Core PCE Doubles
May 2022–May 2026 -- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has used the phrase “well anchored” dozens of times, making it one of his most repeated talking points on inflation. Yet core PCE inflation (the Fed's "preferred" measure) is 2x the...
Debt‑payment Default Expectations Hit Two‑year Low
April New York Fed Consumer Survey: expectations for missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months fell to the lowest reading in over two years https://t.co/bkjoY3vzXl
US Productivity Gains Slow Yet Remain Strong, Wage Inflation Tamed
US labor productivity kept rising in Q1, but more slowly. Output per hour for nonfarm workers increased at a 0.8% annual rate, down from 1.6% in Q4. Compared w/a year earlier, however, productivity was up 2.9%; the biggest gain since...
No Rate Cuts
Until the conflict ends, no rate cuts. You would need to see a big rise with duration with jobless claims data for the hawks to budge now
World Cup 2026 to Add 185K Jobs, $17B GDP
"185,000: expected increase in US jobs due to World Cup 2026, and the forecasted boost to US GDP is $17bn" - BofA
Wages Out
3% wage growth or under 1% Productivity growth Target 2% inflaiton, wage growth still too high for the Fed
Market Anticipates Modest NFP Gain, 65K Forecast
Market is looking for just over a third job growth for Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow 65K forecast vs. 178K previous Here's how my leading indicators for NFPs stack up https://t.co/8NayTDCEvN
US Weekly Jobless Claims Stay Near Historic Lows
Both initial and continuing weekly jobless claims in the US remain very low, echoing the low layoff rate in JOLTS data. https://t.co/LGFAHjvdBU
Gen Z Savings Rate Climbs to 6.2% in 2025
Gen Z's savings rate has risen every year since 2022, most recently jumping to 6.2% in 2025 from 5.9% in 2024.
Inflation Fears Persist, yet Long‑run Expectations Stay Anchored
Americans remain deeply scarred by the COVID inflation surge. Inflation expectations, Google searches, and demand for inflation hedges all remain elevated. But longrun NGDP expectations still look anchored. The Fed’s credibility endures. My latest: https://t.co/0JXpX63EwQ @Austan_Goolsbee @MaryDalyEcon @annap_2013
Rising Markets Spur Push for Higher Capital Gains Taxes
The crowd won't like this but the more the market goes up, the more it encourages policymakers on both sides of the aisle to raise capital gains tax rates.
High‑income Households See 6% After‑tax Wage Growth
"Higher-income households’ after-tax wage growth rose to 6.0% year-over-year (YoY) in April" - BofA https://t.co/ibx1c89OkY
Debt Matters only if You Can Afford It
Debt by itself is a lousy guide. A $500,000 mortgage can be manageable or terrifying depending on salary, rates, and future earnings. Same with countries: the real question isn’t “how much debt?” but “can they carry it?”
US Tech Imports Surge 110% as Non‑tech Falls
since Liberation Day, US non-tech imports are down 10%. Tech imports are up 110% https://t.co/hEbs6NasJ8
Inflation Fueled by Rapid Money Growth and Low Inventories
WELLS: “.. inflation is too much money chasing after too few goods. Money supply is growing at the fastest rate since mid-2022, while inventory levels are low after three years of de-stocking.”
March Hiring Surge Offsets February Job Cuts
JUST IN: US employers cut 448,000 jobs in February but added 655,000 in March, boosting total hiring to 5.55 million and the hiring rate to 3.5%.