Economy and Consumers More Resilient Than Expected
Ed Yardeni tells CNBC the economy and consumer are more resilient than many think. Don't bet against their strength. https://t.co/Dm8ktjg2Tn
Fed's Rate Cuts Aim to Balance Jobs and Inflation
Monetary policy is a blunt, highly imperfect tool. The Federal Reserve, unique in having a dual mandate of promoting price stability & full employment. When both of its mandates are out of whack, it has to assess which is more...
US Job Growth Shifts to Women, Men Lose Ground
"The American labor market is tilting away from men, with nearly all net job growth over the past year coming from the female-dominated healthcare and social-assistance category. Male-dominated sectors such as manufacturing and transportation and warehousing have been losing jobs,...
April CPI Set for Double Surge: Crude Spike, Core Correction
Tomorrow's April CPI will be a double whammy. Headline will surge because of crude and core will set higher to correct for the "error" from last Oct because of the government shutdown.
Post-2000 Labor Share Decline Persists Across Sectors
Nearly true of the Nonfinancial Corporate Business sector too, where labor/capital distinction is cleaner. Sectoral & depreciation adjustments usually raise the labor share level, & they often show flat/rising shares over 1973-2000. But post-2000 decline is pretty consistent.
Shrinking Workforce Undermines Wage Power Amid Inflation
Wolf Street: "The labor force has been dropping since last fall amid the crackdown on illegal immigration, a tightening up of some work-visa programs, and the wave of boomer retirements. In April, it dropped by another 92,000, to 169.99 million....
10-Year Note Forms Bullish Cup‑Handle, Breakout Loom
$TNX Daily. Index for Rates on 10-Year Note. Chart patterns can & often do morph. Here, consolidation morphs to bullish cup & handle. Back over at least 4.7% threatens breakout https://t.co/gQXIqXWRgI
CPI May Hit 10.8% Annualized If Consensus Upper
Tomorrow's CPI, at the upper end of consensus, could see a 10.8% annualized rate (0.9% x 12)
California's Job Market Pivots to Healthcare, Lower Wages
"Forget AI. The California job market is powered by healthcare" https://t.co/JtusUDsgVe "States such as Idaho are adding jobs in both high- and low-wage sectors. California is undergoing a great labor market transformation towards lower-paid work." https://t.co/t1r2Ff7Rby
Banks Overstated Tariff Risks; Rollbacks Reveal Bias
Everyone and their mother at investment banks screamed about how tariffs would increase inflation and decrease growth last year, while literally no one seems to care about the impact now that they’re basically being rolled back. I don’t think I’ve...
Private-Sector Spending Reshapes Economy Beyond Past Stimulus
3/ This private-sector spend is tectonic. Instead of financial engineering, we’re seeing a fundamental re-tooling of the economy. The scale of this investment dwarfs traditional "stimulus" and creates a floor for this cycle that didn't exist in '98. https://t.co/MLigMBxeIO
College Tuition Outpaced by Inflation over Last Decade
Here's something most ppl probably don't realize: College tuition has been rising much slower than the overall pace of inflation the past 10 years Seems like good news https://t.co/W4ZPR7WyuH
College Tuition Outpaces Inflation by Threefold
College tuition is up 672% over the last 40 years. Overall inflation? +198%. This isn’t normal. This isn’t sustainable. This isn’t a good thing. https://t.co/PGwigPNTS1
Strong Jobs, Record Market, No Rate Cuts Needed
Jobs came in strong. Market's at all-time highs. No rate cuts in sight. @LizThomasStrat and @GuyAdami break down what the data is actually saying and why the market seems perfectly fine ignoring everything else. YouTube: https://t.co/a6m67f5Xrr Apple: https://t.co/X3Haxb7O2m Spotify: https://t.co/e6NMl4xzXY
Fed Signals Cuts, Market Expects 2027 Hike—New Chair Faces Mismatch
The blue line is what the Fed is communicating. 2 rate cuts this year. The orange line is what the market is pricing in, a rate HIKE by Summer 2027. Warsh starts as Fed Chairman on Friday. High on his agenda...
Markets Overestimate Rate Cut; Stay Cautious on Pumps
Markets are pricing in Kevin Warsh like he's going to cut rates on day one. He can't. Oil is $105 and CPI is still 3.7%. The committee won't move. Be very careful chasing pumps in this market.
Policy Barriers, Not Greedy Capitalists, Shrink Labor Share
I'm in @PostOpinions today discussing new research on a big driver of the declining "labor share": not greedy capitalists, but healthcare, labor, tax, licensing, & other policies that discourage employers from hiring/firing & workers from quitting: https://t.co/bHjB5uw6cI (🎁) https://t.co/RpU4QmN7iE
Payroll Gains Mask Underlying Job Losses and Wage Decline
It’s tiring having to listen to talk on bubble vision about how great the U.S. economy is, as has been the case this morning. Good grief. Everyone is fixated on the +115k nonfarm payroll gain in April, with nary a comment anywhere...
Inflation Data This Week Crucial, Says
A clip from this morning's conversation on CNBC with Andrew Ross Sorkin, Becky Quick, and Joe Kernen. Thank you for having me on Squawk Box. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/05/11/the-inflation-numbers-are-going-to-be-absolutely-critical-this-week-says-mohamed-el-erian.html #economy #markets
CPI Drops Tomorrow, PPI Follows—If You Trust the Numbers
The consumer price index (CPI)* report will be released tomorrow, and the producer price index (PPI) report will be released on Wednesday. *for those that trust the data
April Home Sales Set to Rise, 3‑yr Notes Steady
Economic Calendar for Mon. May 11 10:00am - Existing home sales for April: Expected $4.05M; Prior $3.98M 1:00pm - 3 year Note Auction: Prior 3.897%
Central Banks Face Repeated Inflation Amid Supply Shocks
NEW ODD LOTS Monetary Policy in the Age of Supply Side Shocks @tracyalloway and I talk to the great Megan Greene —- always @economistmeg to us — about how central banks are dealing with one inflationary episode after another https://t.co/y1tj2H3kJm
Fed Cuts Don’t Guarantee Bond Rallies, History Shows
For years, a familiar pitch has followed every Fed cut: rates are dropping, so bonds should rally. But history is a little messier than that. Bond outcomes do NOT move in a predictable manner just because the US Fed changes policy. Source:...
Mortgage Spread Shrinks by 95 Basis Points Since 2023
The peak monthly mortgage spread was in June 2023 June 2023 👇 Avg. 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.71% 10-year Treasury yield: 3.75% Spread: 296 bps April 2026 Avg. 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.33% 10-year Treasury yield: 4.32% Spread: 201 bps https://t.co/fPMRjUo1EE
Dollar Weakening Signals Imminent Rate Cuts and Market Shift
The recent behavior of the US dollar is increasingly consistent with a market anticipating intervention in the rates market ahead. Lower rates and a weaker dollar are no longer optional policies. They are becoming absolutely essential for the system to function under...
Goldman Predicts Weak PPI, Retail Sales on Inflation‑adjusted Terms
PPI Weds, then comes Retail Sales Thursday Goldman sees tepid numbers, negative on an inflation-adjusted basis https://t.co/LTRiiVzUzb
Job Growth Hits Breakeven, Yet Unemployment Climbs
GS: Underlying Trend Job Growth Has Now Rebounded to Roughly Our Estimate of the Breakeven Rate, but the Unemployment Rate Rose https://t.co/62hwvAItYn
Energy Pass‑through Keeps Core PCE Near 3%
GS: Energy Passthrough Will Likely Keep Core PCE Inflation Closer to 3% Than 2% Through Year-End https://t.co/P0LWNyKbtE
U.S. Tax System More Progressive, yet Less Redistributive
It’s surprising to me how few people know that the US has one of the most progressive tax systems in the world. We just tax less overall than many western countries and our spending is less distributive.
Historic Buffett Indicator Spike Predicts S&P Downturn
Hey @grok The "Buffett Indicator" is currently sitting at 229% of GDP—the highest level in history. While everyone is talking about the "New AI Era," Berkshire is sitting on nearly $400 billion in cash. Show me the last 3 times this...
Good Jobs Data Masks Stagflation Risk, Not Economic Doom
A “good” jobs report = “all clear.” The SP reaches a new high. Things are not as bad as a year ago. Tariffs not so bad The Iran war may not be so bad Fed can pass on a rate cut Stagflation is...
High‑non‑citizen Sub‑industries Drive Recent Job Gains
Great post from @mtkonczal. 1st, immigration: he finds 20% sub-industries with largest non-citizen % have led job gains since November. Supports my thesis a pickup in immigration could explain faster payroll vs household job growth (& higher breakeven)
MBS Buying May Not Significantly Lower Mortgage Rates
I wonder if these MBS purchases have kept mortgage rates lower than they otherwise would be. Would the 30-year fixed be ~6.75% today instead? Problem is other administration policies, e.g. tariffs, war, etc. basically absorb and offset any of the benefit.
Private Sector Research Receives $150 B in 2024
I have no idea what impression you are under. I am aware of the data on private sector research, the BEA put it at $150 billion in 2024 https://t.co/JdUycxACHJ
Healthcare Adds 1.8 M Jobs; Other Sectors Lose 128 K
Insane stat: Healthcare and Social Assistance have added nearly 1.8 million private-sector jobs in the US since the end of 2023 while all of other industries combined have lost 127,800 jobs. https://t.co/LpZ31hL2fD
Initial Claims Plummet Below Historical Seasonal Range
Initial Claims has broken sharply below the 2023-25 range for this time of year @augurinfinity https://t.co/8h7fMZGuVZ
Retail Sales Surge Masked by Inflation Effects
Big Johnson Redbook retail sales lately, but a chunk of the YoY gain is inflation @augurinfinity April Retail Sales next week from the Census Bureau.. watch the "real" numbers https://t.co/CMhuPDSMIQ
America’s Debt Crisis Peaks: Credit, Mortgage, and National Liabilities
JUST IN: US credit card debt hit record high of $1.33 trillion. And foreclosure filings jump to 6-year high due to rising insurance, property taxes, and debt strain on homeowners. Meanwhile… US Household Debt = All time high US National Debt = All time...
US Credit Card
🇺🇸 US credit card debt reaches new all-time high of $1.33 trillion. USD dollar is garbage , buy $doge
Record Low Consumer Sentiment Reflects Widespread Economic Pessimism
US Consumer sentiment falls to its lowest on record, for the 2nd straight month. Meanwhile, 70% of Americans think the economy is getting worse, per FOX. The data isn’t lying.
AI Deflationary Shock Flattening Yield Curve Amid Oil Rise
One of the more interesting signals in the data right now is that the yield curve continues to flatten despite a significant increase in oil prices on a trailing three-month basis. Historically, in a more traditional economic cycle, an energy...
Waller Warns Productivity Surge Could Raise Borrowing Costs
Fed's Waller: starts by trashing Goolsbee's model -- anticipated productivity will be associated with higher borrowing costs if 'everyone' scrambles to invest, acting as a dampener.
Goldman Delays Final Fed Cuts to Late 2026, Early 2027
“We are pushing back the final two Fed rate cuts in our forecast by one quarter to December 2026 and March 2027.” - Goldman
1990s Productivity Ambiguity Led Greenspan to Delay Rate Hikes
Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee: the productivity again in the 1990s was not clear in the data. Greenspan imputed it based on other data and held back raising rates. It was only clear with hindsight.
Fed Official Questions if Shock Is Temporary or Lasting
San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly: "in a shock, how do you know whether it's temporary or persistent? [...] I'm trying not to use the word 'transitory', but you know what it refers to" 🤷♂️
Fed Seeks Level Playing Field for Banks Vs. Non‑banks
Fed's Michelle Bowman: the regulatory environment has pushed credit to non-bank financial institutions banks. Proposed changes are aimed to have traditional banks better compete.
US Stock Market in Bubble Territory, Yield Spread Confirms
My view in @beincrypto on how the US stock market is OVERPRICED, OVERVALUED, and OVERHYPED: “My Bubble Detector says the US stock market is in bubble territory. So does the bond-stock yield spread. Buckle up.” https://t.co/EIcTSXkcsw
Prime‑age Male Labor Participation up, Overall Rate Misleading
Sigh. I fucking hate it when people treat labor force participation rate as an indicator of labor market strength. This is just AGING. The prime-age male labor force participation rate has RISEN. https://t.co/irkibPk59k
Fed Briefly Employed Tiered Reserves During 2008 Crisis
🚨 Fed actually used a tiered reserves system temporarily in 2008🚨 — Darrell Duffie @HooverInst monetary policy conference https://t.co/CPW11sBr1e
Regulators Block Bank Liquidity Requests, Scarce Reserves Inefficient
How to shrink the balance sheet? @DuffieDarrell Due to regulatory pressure, large banks have not come to the Fed to get liquidity. Making reserves scarce again would be 'massively inefficient and stupid' (referencing Fed's Chris Waller's recent speech)