US Economy Social Media and Updates
US Economy Social Media and Updates
.@johnarnold it is not only tone deaf, it ignores the important academic work on “salient prices.” People attach more meaning to things they buy frequently. Take eggs, less than 1% of the consumer basket, big impact on inflation expectations. Gas is even more salient.
"We've never seen anything like this…even during the Great Recession the most we had seen was 11 consecutive. It's not NO jobs created in 2025. Jobs were DESTROYED." https://t.co/TEyHYMKiKA #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/7AjP28JOhM
The crisis is over. Can we go back to understanding the labor market as generally worse for less educated workers now?
Household net worth as a share of income stands close to all time highs in the US, Japan and Australia --Goldman https://t.co/lb65bEX2Ii
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem: “I expect the current setting of the policy rate will remain appropriate for some time.” "I could support additional easing if a greater risk of a weakening labor market becomes apparent, provided inflation and inflation...
Policy feels abstract right up until it lands in your budget. That’s the point: the stakes are real because White House decisions can show up as pricier gas, a bigger health bill, and higher prices on imported goods. https://t.co/JkEALd3F4O
Why the stock market looms larger over the outlook for U.S. consumer spending than oil prices: Equities held at market value account for more than 25% of household net worth, the most on record in 80 years of data (https://t.co/hFEP95KsDI)...
📊 Pre-Market Brief | Wed, Apr 1 ─────── 📅 MACRO DATA Crude Oil Inventories: Est 1.8 | Prior 6.9 ISM Manufacturing PMI: Est 52.3 | Prior 52.4 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Act 62 | Est 41 | Prior 66 🟢 ─────── 💰 MAG 7 EARNINGS None this week 🏛️...
The Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index is bumping up against the highest levels since late 2023. Analysts seem to have underestimated how much momentum there was in the economy heading into the Iran war. https://t.co/qXTzGuZtlX
Q4 2025 NMDB data reveals that 78% of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%, that's down from the peak of 93% in Q2 2022. The share of mortgaged homes with a rate below 6% is the lowest since 2015....
Retail sales +0.6% in February +3.0% dept stores +2.3% health, personal care +2.0% clothes +1.3% sporting, hobby, music, books +1.2% cars, parts +0.9% gas stations +0.7% online +0.5% electronics +0.4% restaurants, bars +0.4% building mats, garden -1.0% grocery -1.0% furniture
Remember the CPI is a one year fixed basket, which by definition ignores demand destruction in categories that rise in price (gasoline) and demand substitution in areas with falling prices. By definition this leads to an overstated CPI vs actual...
Market will be sensitive to labor market data. A smallish ADP beat pressuring Ts a bit
JOLTS gives us bad news on the state of the labor market BEFORE the war https://t.co/vqa0JUhY2f
"Our RSM US Financial Conditions Index, which has been decelerating since early February, has turned negative, implying a modest drag on growth." -Joe Brusuelas, RSM
From the @wsj “the safety of Treasury debt is a function of math and confidence…. There is no magic number where U.S. debt becomes unsustainable, but every tick upward leaves the government more exposed to interest-rate fluctuations and less able...
Trump’s Iran update vs US Retail Sales - that’s the main focus for markets today. Stocks up, dollar down, Gold firm but Oil still above $100. Here’s what to watch 👇 https://t.co/gU5QbERzUH
The one year anniversary of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs is Thursday (April 2). This pieces asks: What happened to US imports in 2025, in light of all of those Trump tariffs? If you 💕💕💕 charts, you will want to read 👇
Today’s JOLTS data highlighted the extent of the labor market paralysis that was already deepening before the Iran war. Hiring made a new 10+ year low in February excluding pandemic distortions, via @bespokeinvest https://t.co/xYctvNLqUZ
BofA Nielsen: Supermarket inflation fell to 2.3% YoY in March +47.9% on the 7yr stack https://t.co/Jlz9FUMWAG
GS: Unemployment Among Young Tech Workers Has Fallen Back in Line With Unemployment for All Tech Workers https://t.co/oAVQfwTaF4
Real economists repeatedly cautioned that, bc of tariffs & DOGE (& later the shutdown), topline GDP figures could be distorted due to swings in trade flows & govt activity. So, they recommended excluding those things, and it shows a modestly...
"In this blog post, we ask how much of the evolution in average U.S. labor productivity...can be attributed to changes in the composition of the workforce, with a particular focus on immigration. The short answer: very little." https://t.co/89nFQJzJXe https://t.co/UNZGnsrUqE
Does jobs week matter for mortgage rates as the Iran war intensifies? https://t.co/eNWu4sPUwS via @YouTube
The labor market can be "roughly steady" with a lotta hiring matched by a lotta firing, or few fires matched by few hires. The U.S. is moving into a low hire-low fire equilibrium, which really hurts folks—the young, those (re-)entering...
$39T national debt. 10Y yield: 4.44%. Annual interest: ~$1.1T. That exceeds the entire defense budget. The US is paying more to service its past than to defend its future. There is no clean exit from a fiscal spiral at this scale. --- https://t.co/maHJkCjSBw
Wild story: President appoints someone to the central bank recommended by his own finance minister. The appointee resists the president's demands to approve bigger rate cuts, and now the president says he "stupidly" followed the minister's advice, leading to "the...
My friend Thematic Markets gets this wrong -- US industrial production (using the series that leaves out chips, which is still benefitting from Biden era policies) is flat not way up 1.x https://t.co/pYA4LZEt8F
Mortgage rates are lower today thanks to Jerome Powell. Why? Because he put fears of Fed rate hikes to bed during a Q&A session with Harvard students yesterday. Despite surging oil prices, he said “We feel like our policy’s in a...
January: everyone was long rate cuts. Now: hike odds >50%. That's not a rotation. That's the largest positioning reversal in years — and the unwind isn't finished. $SPY -3.4%. $QQQ -4.2%. The price tells you where we are in that unwind. --- https://t.co/mDbRSIwQT2
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid: Inflation expectations have been low because the central bank has previously acted to make sure inflation will stay low. "It is now our job to follow through with policy actions that validate those expectations."
Recently, the January surge in US manufacturing job openings was cited as evidence of US tariff success. Today's JOLTS report shows a significant retreat in February. Alas, the perils of cherrypicking. https://t.co/iGuSwqceO5
"Unsurprisingly given the Iran war oil shock, consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to levels last seen in August 2025, when US consumers awaited more tariff announcements from the US federal government." - The Conference Board...
If you're asking whether 30% recession risk is bad, compare it with the right baseline. Normal is about 14%. So yes, we're still below 50%—but we're also roughly double normal. Seems troubling. https://t.co/2dO5Qjmi3q
With this latest JOLTS release, we're at a US labor market churn rate that's among the lowest since data began, rivaling the depths of the Great Recession. https://t.co/F9CRiQJ4c9
"The hires rate decreased over the month [of February 2026] to 3.1 percent. This was the lowest hires rate since April 2020 when it was also 3.1 percent." Employers only brought on as many workers (as a % of payrolls)...
The no-hire, no-fire labor market. The private-sector hiring rate fell to 3.3% in February, the lowest since Feb. 2010, when the unemployment rate stood at 9.7%. The layoff rate, however, continues to hold steady at low levels. https://t.co/oFDKXdikju
Job openings for January were revised up, but the three-month moving average continues to gently grind lower through February There were 0.9 vacancies for every worker counted as unemployed in February, near the low for the current business cycle. https://t.co/5ET6aMzmsE
Yikes. The U.S. hiring rate fell to 3.1% in February, the lowest since April 2020. This is a hiring recession. And Americans are feeling it. There were notable hiring pullbacks in February in hospitality and construction. Bottom line: The job market...
Not saying it’s going to be enjoyable or inherently desirable, but the US economy can handle substantially higher oil prices without falling into recession
The Fed would like this lower to get wage growth back down to 3% or lower to target 2% inflation.
President Donald Trump’s new tax deduction for overtime looks like a hit this filing season, and that’s shaping up to be a big challenge for Democrats. via @Brian_Faler https://t.co/fpMNZCrW6U
@jimcramer @carlquintanilla Jim I respectfully disagree with your upbeat assessment (as it relates to equities) of the new strategy to cede control of the Strait. The knock on consequences of this new strategy are broad, inflationary and economic dulling. The policy...
The bigger concern for the US economy isn't gas prices, but diesel prices, as @amoshochstein tells @annmarie just now. They're at the highest since 2022 and bumping up against those highs, at $5.45 a gallon. That's the price that'll pressure...
The AAA average fuel price is officially over $4 a gallon for the first time since mid-August 2022. Prices are up over $1 since the war in Iran began. Americans are paying $50 a month more in fuel costs. This is a...
Today, in a speech at Harvard, Fed Chair Powell claimed that QE (the explosion of the money supply) did not cause inflation, nor did it contribute to the massive increase in US income inequality post-COVID. Those statements are blatantly UNTRUE. THE FED...
🇺🇸 Commodity prices and inflation in the U.S. Historically, there has been a strong positive correlation between them. The Fed has reason to be concerned, experts note. https://t.co/bbqfZAAukN
GS: We Now Forecast Only 1.7% Real Income Growth in 2026, With Significant Underperformance Among Lower-Income Households https://t.co/fOdqPIkwQw
Private Credit contagion on top of negative supply shock... Wall St risks directly to affect Main St. Will Bessent do "whatever it takes" to push down long-term MBS rates & govt bond interest expense? QE & rate cuts would be especially inflationary.
Democratic candidate for president, 2028: "I am proposing a 100% wealth tax retroactive to 1964 that kicks in at $5."
