US Economy Social Media and Updates
US Economy Social Media and Updates
In reporting the good jobs numbers for March, the media failed to pick up on the fact that the job losses in February were revised UP from 92,000 lost jobs to 133,000 lost jobs. https://t.co/haZXRUFU55
The base of comparison really should be Biden's $888 billion 2025 budget, not the 2026 budget, which was already a big increase.
Wall Street snapped its 5-week losing streak this week. S&P 500 +3.4%, Nasdaq +4.4%, Dow +3%. First positive week since the Iran war began. Then on Good Friday, a bombshell: 178,000 jobs added in March — triple the 59,000 expected....
A year ago, Trump proclaimed that “Liberation Day” would be "the day American industry was reborn." Thanks to Trump's tariffs, US manufacturing job losses accelerated, shedding 108,000 jobs in 2025. TARIFF MAN = HOW TO DESTROY AMERICA'S MANUFACTURING JOBS. https://t.co/3jvtsqZiBh
After months of lobbying by companies that were unfairly hit by tariffs, the White House consolidated and simplified metals tariffs. But, tariffs remain SKY-HIGH at 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper. The admin's changes were only window dressing. Tariff rates remain punitive....
Taking the data at face value, the US labor market appears to have transitioned from a period of sustained, stable growth into a phase of significant volatility. Per the FT chart below, recent reports are characterized by sharp swings between job...
History says spreads peak 5-7 months after recessions start. Not before. By the time the NBER calls it, the move is done. $JOJO uses leading signals, not lagging labels. https://t.co/aEqM5MShko
Macro: ISM Non‑Manufacturing PMI (exp 55.0) will set US growth/inflation tone. Key: new orders, employment, prices. Risk: hot print reprices rates. Trade: favor short bills to hedge duration. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
This is the Weirdest US Labor Market I’ve Ever Seen. Demand for labor is weak amid job destruction at federal & state governments, which should push up unemployment. But the supply of labor has plunged https://t.co/AyqHHkWDji Federal government jobs lowest since 1966. Hi...
I do think its important to note it would not be shocking if manufacturing employment moves higher over the year. It is hard to say because of downstream losses from higher input costs, but factories are being completed. The Yale...
During the Clinton reign (1993-2001), US defense spending fell from 4.3% to 2.9% of GDP - while GDP SOARED at 4.0%/year. As the economy slumps to 2.1%/yr GDP growth, Trump proposes to increase the defense budget from ~3.0% to 5.0% of...
The U.S. labor market may start to look more like 1980s Japan -- generalists looking for ways to fill in the weaknesses of AI, small businesspeople striking out on their own, and a few specialists with valuable skills. https://t.co/wRA2yG2bYg
March jobs came in at 178K. Headline looks like a blowout. It will likely be interpreted as such. Payrolls: Too Hot. UE at 4.3%: Just Right. Worth noting: 32K of those jobs were striking workers at Kaiser and Starbucks coming back...
US Jobs Report @HedgeyeUSA 1. Feb NFP #’s were negatively distorted by weather, strikes, et al .. so March benefited from the reversal 2. Given the distortions, revisions & labor supply dynamics, most of the signal in the monthly employment data...
From the March payroll report: INCOMES: A drop in the average workweek in March led to very little growth in the index of aggregate weekly payrolls for private-sector workers (which combines hiring, wages, and hours). The 12-month change ticked down to...
Great @lydiadepillis article. One of the things I became convinced of at CEA is that stocks (employment) & flows (hires, fires, ease of finding a job) are both important to labor market health, but economists tend to weight the former...
"Business activity declines amid higher inflation and war in the Middle East ... Employment down amid weakest rise in new work for nearly two years" - S&P US Services PMI https://t.co/4ESKcLv1IC
US job growth bounced back in Mar, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, suggesting the labor market was holding up as the war w/Iran began. Employers added 178k jobs, easily beating forecasts of 60k. Still, the household survey painted a...
GS: Our estimate of the underlying pace of job growth now stands at 53k, roughly in line with our estimate of the breakeven pace of job growth needed to keep the unemployment rate stable. https://t.co/FCJycyPkFU
The big picture: The US economy has added only 260,000 jobs in the past year. 380,000 jobs were added in healthcare. Most other industries *lost* jobs Federal gov't -330,000 in past year Information -76,000 Manufacturing -75,000 Finance -67,000 State gov't -47,000 Professional services -40,000 Retail -30,000 Mining -17,000 #jobs
What does the March jobs report mean for the Fed? It keeps one of the harder problems off the table. Powell said this week the war created the possibility of a greater inflation/labor market tradeoff but said the Fed didn't face...
March jobs came in much stronger than expected 178,000 added versus 59,000 forecast Unemployment dipped to 4.3% Healthcare continues to drive most of the gains https://t.co/UmQcN0lnw8
Last 18 months have not been good for US industries. This and more in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/xPfF8XxwJO
US employers added 178,000 jobs in March. This was over twice as high as the consensus of 60,000. For context, jobs added in March nearly matched the yearly total for all of 2025, when only 181,000 jobs were added. https://t.co/HhjdreSvui
My five main takeaways from this morning’s strong March US Jobs Report: 1. Great news for Main Street: With a blockbuster 178,000 jobs added and unemployment dropping to 4.3%, the labor market is outperforming expectations. 2. The supply-side challenge: The labor force...
Good sign supporting the bull market U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Jump 178K in March, Beating Expectations as Unemployment Falls to 4.3%
Dude can use some good news: Job creation spiked up 178K w/#unemployment held steady at 4.3%. Get ready for a #Trump victory dance. #realestate #CRE #economy #interestrates #mortgage #TheFed #finance https://t.co/PZiEZSvGF9
Important point: Wage growth slowed in March to 3.5%. That's the lowest since May 2021. 3.5% looks decent, but we're in the midst of a big surge inflation as gas and transport costs rise. We could easily hit 4%+ inflation, which will...
Given the backdrop of the US economy, the net +178K increase in #NFPs is good relative to the +50K expected, rendering the biggest upside 'surprise' since January 2024 https://t.co/wrWXmWQyXu
If you think the reported jump in payrolls in March is sustainable, I have some news: https://t.co/zRB6pq1mqD
As long as jobless claims stay low, adding 15,000 jobs per month for 3 years will be acceptable for a neutral policy.
The last thing the word needed this morning was strong US data. But that's what we got. A +1.5 standard deviation surprise on payrolls that's pushed up the 2-year yield 5 basis points, which is broadly in line with its...
The job market continues to be reasonably good (for an aging workforce with low net immigration). 178K jobs in March, much a bounceback from strikes and weather that resulted in -133K (revised) in February. The three month average is 68K. Urate ticked...
Labor market thoughts: -Clearly, the breakeven job growth number to maintain stable unemployment is low right now -Nominal job growth is muted, entirely concentrated in healthcare -Wage growth continues to slow, aggregate payroll growth is consistent with maybe 4% NGDP growth
US Unemployment Rate moved down to 4.3% in March, the lowest level since last August & well below the historical average of 5.7%. 178k jobs were added vs. 51k expected (but February revised⬇️to -133k from -92k). YoY wage growth: +3.5%,...
NFP beats, for now. Big picture, the chart shows a deceleration trend - with some some big monthly swings of late. Unemployment down to 4.3% = no Fed rate cuts. Is good news bad or good - I lose track ;-) Wage growth...
Here's the somewhat troubling news in the jobs report: The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, but not for great reasons. There's a big drop (almost -400k) in the labor force. The labor force participation rate also fell. It appears people stopped looking...
I am aghast listening to people on TV discuss the NFP report of 178k as "Blowout numbers." This is an okay number, not as bad as some recent data points, not as good as others. Call it the soft prejudice of...
Over the past year the US economy has added 680,000 healthcare and social assistance jobs and lost 420,000 jobs in all other industries.
The labor market takes a licking and keeps on ticking. The volatility in the labor market makes it challenging to parse the signal from the noise, but it does suggest momentum in the U.S. economy despite headwinds.
This is rapidly becoming one of the most pronounced stagflationary environments in decades. Inflation is accelerating while growth is rolling over sharply. That leaves the Fed in a real bind. At these levels of debt, you either save growth or kill inflation. Policymakers will...
15k job gain in manufacturing is largest one-month gain since a 22K rise in November 2023, but employment is still down 75k YOY
U.S. net interest payments on the federal debt (in billions of dollars) by fiscal year: 2020: $345 2021: $352 2022: $475 2023: $659 2024: $882 2025: $970 2026: $1,000B (projected to exceed $1 trillion) Got hard assets?
With today's blockbuster +178k print on payrolls we've now been in a bizarre yo-yo pattern alternating between positive and negative payroll numbers for ten straight months, dating to last June. https://t.co/LSW4ELkTYg
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Good jobs report with 178k job growth and the unemployment rate edging down to 4.3%. The revisions were small at 7K. Bond yields rise. (Note this report was pre-war.)
+178K NFP, +68K 3MMA, -7K 2M revisions U3 rate down -0.18pp to 4.26% (good) but this happened because EPOP down -0.04pp & LFPR down -0.16pp (not good) https://t.co/fDs33qdA2H
The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%, but the U-6 underemployment rate rose to 8.0% https://t.co/3G8tKnf7pR
The economy added +178,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. But revisions sent February to -133,000 from -92,000. January was revised up to +160,000 from +126,000.
Cozy mini market day for the release of the March payroll report. Globex closes at 11:15 am for Good Friday
