US Consumer Resilience Overestimated Amid Rising Energy, Services Costs
"Increase in the retail prices of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and naphtha between February 27 and April 27: it is “somewhat counterintuitive” that the US is now experiencing some of the largest price increases globally, and might indicate that it will not prove quite as resilient as many assume." How much inflation can the US consumer bear? It's not just energy prices. Core services jumped by 0.32% in March from February. The six-month core services index has been accelerating since August. Again, I think built up complacency that past US consumer resilience will equal future US consumer resilience is a mounting risk to markets. It's something I'm diving deep on in my upcoming report on "The Private Credit Reckoning." Learn more about Sage Road here: https://t.co/Wgwz2xnvR6. Interested in subscribing? Message me. Quote link: https://t.co/mezDt45RTA
Geopolitical Tensions and Tariffs Fuel Mixed Market Outlook
Markets are mixed this morning and here's why it matters 👇 Iran allegedly shot at US ships overnight. US denies damage but the message is clear, tensions are escalating, not cooling. Oil popped, then faded. Dow down, NASDAQ up, S&P flat. Add...
SOFR Shows Near‑Zero Rate Cuts as Hidden Stimulus Fuels Growth
As of today, SOFR curve is pricing in ~ 8 bps of cuts in 2027 and ~2 bps of cuts in 2028. Cuts have finally been priced out as there is very little basis for them. Policymakers are using more...
Net Negative Migration Threatens U.S. Workforce and Growth
"Why 'net negative migration' could spell bad news for the U.S. economy The U.S. is on track to lose more immigrants than it gains in 2026. That means fewer workers paying taxes, building homes, growing food, and caring for an aging...
AI Promises Growth, yet Fuels US Inflation Now
GS: We expect artificial intelligence to deliver large productivity gains over the next several years, boosting the economy’s potential growth rate and putting downward pressure on production costs. So far, however, AI is boosting US inflation. https://t.co/c0lNX9gTvd
Fed Claims Shrinkage, but Balance Sheet Expands Again
Warsh, Miran and Bessent say they want to shrink the Fed's footprint. But the Fed's balance sheet started growing again in December. Reserve Management Purchases of 40B/month are de facto QE. And they're using the same ATI playbook they criticized Yellen...
War Continues, Rate Cuts Unlikely; Hike Probability Rises
No rate cuts while the war is ongoing; there's a higher chance of a hike if this persists.
Half of Dollar’s Value Vanished: Invest, Don’t Hoard Cash
Over the past 30 years, the U.S. dollar lost 53% of its purchasing power. That’s the hidden cost of sitting in cash due to inflation. Keep what you need for an emergency in cash and invest the rest. https://t.co/WAUUt2KTKQ
Factory Orders Rise 0.4% as Fed’s Williams Speaks
Economic Calendar for Mon. May 4th 10:00am - Factory orders m/m for March: Expected 0.4%; Prior 0% 12:50pm - Fed’s Williams speaks
Immigrant Enforcement Harms U.S. Workers, No Spillover Benefits
New @nberpubs: "Labor Market Impacts of ICE Activity in Trump 2.0" https://t.co/LiZXDgySdk "We find no evidence of positive spillover effects to U.S.-born workers and U.S.-born workers who work in immigrant-heavy sectors are harmed" 😲 https://t.co/XepXyVseyO
Core Inflation Barely
LOL are we really gonna pull out this Krugman-esque, ghost of Arthur Burns bullshit again for the Warsh Fed?
New Tax Shift Threatens Intergenerational Property Fairness
It will be the most ironic example of policy that undermines intergenerational fairness, if after decades of capital gains for boomers the government doubles taxes on shares and entrepreneurship for the younger generation. Focus on property. Don't destroy everything else with it
GDP Growth May Mask Inflation and Cycle‑Driven Spending
Is all this anticipated GDP growth really just Business Investment, Government spending, Prices going up (inflation), certain Corporate sales rising on what may just be a cycle top.
Inside Fed Strategy: Kurt Lewis Shares Central Bank Insights
In this episode we sit down with Kurt Lewis, Head of Central Bank Policy at Piper Sandler and former Special Advisor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. https://t.co/N5gUxUSRsB
Questioning the Need for Multiple Inflation Measures
Since the Fed has a preferred inflation gauge, why do we even bother with the other ones?
Fed Clings to Flawed Inflation Metric Amid Rising Prices
The St. Louis Fed now posting Kevin Warsh’s useless inflation metric. That’s how far these guys have to go to justify cutting rates while inflation is picking back up. https://t.co/2DvEMmGuRZ https://t.co/hoSrqX9OFs
Powell's Governor Role Preserves Leverage, Safeguards Process
Powell’s term as chair may be ending, but his ability to remain a governor still gives him leverage. That matters because process is protection against capture. https://t.co/zmy1pLw79q
US Debt Soars to $1 Quadrillion; Bitcoin Remains Undervalued
US debt will hit 1 QUADRILLION dollars by 2070. That's 1,000 trillion dollars. Growing at 7.6% per year, that's $87,685 added every second. Interest alone is now $981 billion per year. #Bitcoin is undervalued.
US Economy Stumbles: Inflation Rises, Budget Spirals, Growth Stalls
My view on the POOR state of the US economy on @MarioNawfal : "Inflation is up in the US. The federal budget is out of control. GDP growth is flatlined. Forget Trump's propaganda machine, storm clouds are gathering." https://t.co/1DRQ94bBCd
Working Families Face Lasting Price Hikes Despite Tax Cuts
This isn’t just about who gets a tax cut. It’s about who bears the long-run burden. Higher prices for basics plus temporary relief is a rotten deal for working households. https://t.co/Qtku9wBJjJ
Loans Hit Record High, GDPNow at 3.7%
H.8 Fed Reserve Data: loans grew 8th straight week, the 13th week in 15, and 24th in 28 to a record high. C&I led rising 13th week in 15. Front line of economic activity. Atlanta Fed...
US Bond Market Endures Record 69-Month Drawdown
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 69 months, by far the longest in history. https://t.co/Y1cdWffv71
Stocks Rise if Growth Outpaces Inflation
Great chart. The bigger question is whether growth soars more than inflation? What do stocks do if growth keeps surprising to the upside?
2021‑22 Price Shock Evolved Into Broad Inflation Wave
How the price shock of 2021-2022 mutated into a more comprehensive wave of inflation. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links of today. https://t.co/5s8MaZvyqK
Fed Cautious After 3.5% PCE, Buy
Fed cautious after PCE 3.5%: services inflation and oil/geopolitics lift risks; divided FOMC delays cuts. Trade: buy short‑duration Treasuries. —Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Fed Split, Japan's Massive Yen Defense, Markets on Borrowed Time
The Fed just split 8-4. Most divided vote since October 1992. Japan torched ¥5.4 trillion — 7% of FX reserves — in a single day defending the yen at 160. S&P at a record. Nasdaq's best month since 2020. This is what borrowed...
Swap Lines Make Recipients Fed Branches Without Voting Power
The best way to think about USD Swap Lines is that they basically transform the recipient into a new regional branch of the Federal Reserve or US Treasury but the new branch doesn't have any voting rights with regards to...
Invest in S&P 500: $1 Beats Inflation to $9
Inflation is the silent thief. Over the last 30 years, it cut the value of $1 in half. But $1 invested in the S&P 500 became nearly $9 – AFTER adjusting for higher prices. That’s the power of ownership. https://t.co/gb8aVaDFxZ
U.S. Retail Electricity Prices Surge Ahead of CPI
American retail electricity prices are running very far ahead of CPI - striking report by Grace Fan featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/JRfEtYTzPA
Mideast Energy Crisis Pushes Fed Toward Dovish Stance
Being a Fed dove in 2025: Here’s why we should cut Being a Fed dove in 2026: Here’s why we don’t need to hike How the Mideast energy crisis is reshaping the Fed’s debate
AI Drives Nearly Half of Recent GDP Growth
Per @sonusvarghese, over the past 5 quarters GDP has averaged 2.0%. 0.90% of that (so 45%) has come from AI hardware/software spending. Wow. https://t.co/aiia8rSNZ2
ADP Payrolls Firm; Jobless Claims Hit 1969 Low
Firm ADP weekly payrolls, lowest Initial Claims since 1969... we'll find out next Friday if the labor market held up in April https://t.co/XRYrs03w6u
US Stocks Beat Gold as Inflation Hedge
“The best hedge against inflation has historically been US equities:” GS’s Mossavar-Rahmani. Gold isn’t a good hedge for inflation or deflation “so the idea that gold is something you need to have in your portfolio is something we totally disagree...
Fed Split Signals Market Uncertainty, Not Certainty
The Fed held 3.50–3.75% on 2026-04-29… and it was an 8–4 vote. Four dissents. When policy is split like that, “certainty” in markets is a fantasy. VIX at 18.02 is the tell. Silence isn’t safety. It’s complacency. markets
Labor Force Participation Drop Reveals Hidden Joblessness Crisis
This is why you shouldn’t pay any attention to the unemployment rate. It doesn’t count people who have given up looking for work or dropped out of the labor force. The scariest chart is the chart that shows the labor force...
Jackson Hole Speech Marks Most Hawkish Remarks Yet
His speech at Jackson Hole that year is the most hawkish speech in the entire corpus IIRC
Fedlock's Hawkishness Score Climbs Sharply with Recent Statements
As discussed below, Fedlock's aggregate hawkishness score continues to rise noticeably, with the latest communication from Kashkari, Powell, and Hammack all registering high relative to their recent comms https://t.co/b7k8lndodx
Unemployment Risks May Prompt Fed Rate Hike
BNP PARIBAS: “.. downside risks to the unemployment rate may be underappreciated. This brings with it a growing tail risk that the Fed could consider hiking rates later this year.” https://t.co/ax6DWAd2eV
Miran’s Exit Leaves Fed with No Remaining Doves
Interesting chart, although there is some hard-to-quantify nuance regarding how dovish/hawkish each individual member truly is.
Historic LEI/CEI Low Signals Recession, Cyclicals Set to Crash
The ratio of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) to Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) showing the steepest decline in the entire history of the metric and now at a level typically seen during or just before recessions. Small/mid + cyclicals rip hard once...
Tech Rally Defies Stagflation as ISM Stalls
Basically, the call wall (SPX $7200 was ceiling/now floor) keeps getting rolled up as AI/Tech/Memory names beat, while the real economy enters stagflation. US APRIL ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX UNCHANGED AT 52.7; EST. 53.2 US ISM MFG PRICES RISE TO 84.6, HIGHEST SINCE...
Foreign Central Banks Stopped US Treasury Purchases; Domestic Funding Rises
Multiple things are simultaneously true: 1) Foreign public sector (central banks) are not buying US treasuries for over a decade, led by China. 2) Foreign private sector is still buying treasuries. 3) Foreign buying is not keeping up with issuance, so more is...
ISM Manufacturing Prices Surge to 2022 High
The ISM manufacturing prices sub-index is truly wild rn. From ISM's Chair: "In the last three months, the Prices Index has increased 25.6 percentage points to reach its highest level since April 2022 (84.6 percent)." The sector's shrugging it off...
FOMC Dissent Procedural; Wait for June SEP to Revise Statement
In the weekly commentary that drops tomorrow, I suggest the 3 FOMC dissents over the statement was more procedural than substantive. When is the best time to change the statement--the majority was including to wait for the June iteration of...
Crude Surge Delays Rate Hike Odds Until Mid‑2027
It will take some time before we'll know if there will be second round inflation effects due to the surge in crude prices. Why hike odds aren't higher for '26 but with some delay in mid '27
Dallas Fed Warns Inflation May Stay Above Target Longer
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan explains her dissent, which objected to suggesting that the next rate move is more likely than not to be a cut: "I am increasingly concerned about how long it will take inflation to return all the...
Record‑High 64% Expect Rising Unemployment Next Year
In April, 64% of US consumers expected unemployment to be higher over the next 12 months, near the highest reading on record.
Northeast Wage Growth up 3.3%, but Low‑mid
BofAI: In March, wage growth was up 3.3% YoY in the Northeast The “K” within wage growth was strongest in the South, but in the Northeast, both lower- and middle-income households’ wage growth turned negative https://t.co/r5KRTSAaWl
Post‑COVID US Consumer Spending Surge: Will It Last?
Since COVID, the US has been riding a sustained surge in consumer spending. Will it continue? Today's Chartbook Top Links just dropped, check it out: https://t.co/6zzy84M54y
War‑driven Inflation Could Force More Rate Hikes, Dissenters Warn
In explaining their dissents this week, Kashkari and Hammack cite resurgent inflation risks stemming from the Iran War. Kashkari (below) says a "series" of hikes might be needed if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, "even at the risk of...