US Economy Social Media and Updates
US Economy Social Media and Updates
UST and IG supply will be an added headwind for rates this week. The whole curve is trading above the Fed's overnight target range as rate cuts go on pause for now and hedging for a near term rate increase drive price action https://t.co/F8oGnOd102
and when you find yourself thinking that rates/yields are high, just remember, they're not... they rose for 40 years... they fell for 38 years... they bottomed (big time), almost 6 years ago... https://t.co/6tRJ9pYxtQ
Gasoline, Diesel Price Surges May Mirror 2008, 2022 - US average gasoline and diesel prices have approached the $4 and $5 a gallon thresholds, raising the prospect of greater consumer and economic stress -- and peaks akin to 2008 and...
Investing Quote of the Day: “I continue to believe that the American people have a love–hate relationship with inflation. They hate inflation but love everything that causes it.” - William E. Simon https://t.co/eO3YmqPZEG
Deutsche Bank forecasts US CPI to hit 3.81% in April and 4.02% in May. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/R7pCnJYmkg
BofA: Naming the 2026 dots The distribution of dots shifted higher in March, but the voting members still lean dovish and expect to ease this year. https://t.co/Qklr1A2um1
GS: We Now Expect December 2026 Headline PCE Inflation of 3.1%, 1pp Above Our Pre-War Forecast; Both Headline and Core PCE Could Peak Higher in a More Severe Risk Scenario https://t.co/sMwHyf6s7N
GS: Over the Past 40 Years, Even Major Oil Price Shocks Did Not Leave Long-Lasting Effects on Consumer Inflation Expectations https://t.co/8naRIKCG9F
GS: We Estimate That the Boost from Commodity Price Increases to Year-Over-Year Core PCE Inflation Will Peak Around 0.35pp in 2026Q4 in Our Baseline Scenario https://t.co/e4Hp5utn1j
Tariff taxes are raising costs for businesses and squeezing workers. As Governor, I want policies that strengthen U.S. manufacturing, lower costs, and create stable jobs—not add uncertainty and expenses. https://sentinelcolorado.com/nation-world/nation/trumps-tariffs-are-hurting-american-manufacturers-instead-of-helping-them/
No noticeable impact from the war/higher mortgage rates in the weekly housing data yet: https://t.co/f4wx5tgXQn
If Generative AI is empowering people? Why are college educated graduates having a harder time finding employment? Source: a16z via Economic Innovation Group, BLS Data. The unemployment rate for young, college-educated workers has deteriorated more so than the field, and...
Zero net U.S. jobs added since April 2025. Oil above $90. Inflation projections raised to 2.7%. And the Fed's dot plot has the widest internal split in years. Is America already in soft stagflation? https://t.co/Mn06ovDktZ
"Bessent is obsessed with the 10-year. He can let the Brent Oil go up, but not the 10Y-Treasury." @perkinscr97 https://t.co/Mn06ovDktZ
The hope of a short-end to the war on Iran sees the Fed funds futures market swing back to a (small chance) of a cut this year--2 bp--. It was around 7 bp of tightening before the weekend and 61...
"We estimate that a modest increase in private credit default rates to 3-4% (the lower end of the range for leveraged loans in prior credit cycles) would result in a small drag on GDP of about 0.1%." - Goldman
Flash PMIs drop Tuesday. First real data read since oil hit $112. In my experience, the PMIs are the most honest early signal of what's actually happening in the economy. If manufacturing and services both print below 50 while inflation expectations stay...
Poll results: 60% of respondents said the US economy will fall into a recession this year... https://t.co/tNssjMxbdK
I used Claude to draw a chart that captures how I see the Fed's asymmetric reaction function towards oil. https://t.co/q9WcR7aCNC
The US economic situation is grim & simple, writes @LynAldenContact STAGFLATION Jobs have stalled, energy prices are squeezing consumers, yields are rising, and the Fed is trapped. Debt, war, and economic weakness are feeding each other now. #LynAlden #Stagflation #Recession #Oil...
"Construction spending during January 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,190.4 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised December estimate" https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/current/index.html This below the consensus forecast for an increase, however the 2 pervious months were revised up.
LT USTs are now a "risk-on" asset: 10y UST yields UP on risk-off, DOWN on risk-on. This is the price action you would expect when 37% of net issuance of UST notes & bonds since 2022 have been bought by "Cayman...
Treasury bears tried to claw back after the 705am ET yield plunge, but the 2yr yield is back on the session lows... down 10bps to 3.81% https://t.co/Cq2pe8M3wf
The 10-3 Treasury Yield Curve is as steep as it has been since July 2022 after the 10-year spiked over the weekend. Historical playbook Every cycle: * Curve inverts → tightening / late cycle * Growth slows / recession risk builds * Fed pivots →...
WSJ's @NickTimiraos discusses the awkward Fed Chair transition to come, pointing to, amongst others, the "break" and "lack of continuity". That's mostly right, subject to an important caveat: Powell last December talked up productivity gains - a core argument by...
From December to January, US new home sales DROPPED by a STUNNING 17.6%. Sales were at their lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. AMERICAN HOUSING MARKET = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/AMSqv9ZMsT
“We revise down our consumption forecasts by 30bp due to the oil shock, which more than offsets the 20bp boost we factored in from fiscal. Real consumption grows 1.7% (4Q/4Q) in 2026. Higher prices and slower labor income growth mean...
"Over the past year, the U.S. has added 156,000 jobs—but healthcare alone was responsible for 375,000 new jobs." https://t.co/85IevT4vGd
New @nberpubs: "The Effects of California's $20 Fast Food Minimum Wage on Prices" https://t.co/pdrjLJOmR7 "Food away from home prices in California's four in-sample MSAs increased by 3.3 to 3.6 percent relative to 17 control MSAs through December 2024." 😲 https://t.co/Y6uER8kNGi
New @nberpubs: "Substitution and Income Effects of Labor Income Taxation" https://t.co/pjcuD9w78x "These findings imply a substantial excess burden of taxation, and that reducing top-income tax rates would increase tax revenue." https://t.co/Mjhhws6raG
New @nberpubs: "Identifying Uncertainty, Learning about Productivity, and Human Capital Acquisition: A Reassessment of Labor Market Sorting and Firm Monopsony Power" https://t.co/jCozurjBnv "We find... a lower degree of firm monopsony power than typically documented." https://t.co/alf5En23h8
If credit markets continue slowing down because of straits of Hormuz oil shock and unemployment shoots up, Fed may have to announce an emergency half a point cut in next two weeks.
The run-up in energy prices is making a very awkward Fed transition even more fraught. This was already complicated. Kevin Warsh's confirmation is stalled by the DOJ probe and the Tillis blockade. Plus, unlike every incoming Fed chair since Volcker, Warsh...
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 31%...today it's 122%. US fiscal deficit/GDP was 1%...today, it's 6% on its way to 8-10% (or more if the war drags on.) Translation: "That 70s Show" will feel like "1980s Argentina with US characteristics."
I mostly agree w/@biancoresearch here. Covid, tariffs and Iran all had elements of supply shock. Covid's came with a demand shock too so inflation dominated Fed response. Tariffs were 2-sided; Fed first prioritized inflation, then growth. w/oil, will prob prioritize...
1/4 Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare. 10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes. Follow up...
“Growth is lower, not just for one quarter. It stays lower throughout all of 2026 and all of 2027.” In English: this isn’t a blip. It’s a persistent hit to jobs, incomes, and the economy’s trajectory.
To be clear: There is nothing “supplemental” here. It’s incremental debt on top of an already large deficit. https://t.co/0Rg6IfCmHu
Funny math. If Dec oil meets futures. The YoY inflation of oil will be roughly 40%. Pick your inflation basket weighting and any feed through to core . Headline CPI direct is roughly 7%. Others...
As Dave Walker, former Comptroller General of the US, and I wrote in @FortuneMagazine, "total [US] federal debt surged past $39 trillion, or 125% of GDP... Despite the federal government's fiscal time bomb, the US Congress and the President remain with...
Markets are now pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING by year-end. Not cuts. Tightening. Six months ago the market expected 3+ cuts in 2026. Next potential cut: autumn 2027. Good luck hitting even that. https://t.co/mmyLstJwNe
Last week I said the chance of a rate cut according to the polymarket was more than likely not happening Some thought I was wrong Needless to say no rate cut happened I need you all to pay attention… this ENTIRE YEAR (as...
The odds of a rate cut in 2026 have fallen to 14.5%. Just 3 weeks ago, they were nearly 100%. https://t.co/uMCjhmatJN
Fascinating how the surge in interest rates is driving these decisions. The US will have to address this. It’s the only way it can realistically afford a war in the first place. Inflation will be unleashed. Rates will be capped. Time to step into gold,...
This "bet" completely ignores the negative shock to economic growth. If central banks raise rates into this, they will cause a recession. Cc @BenRamanauskas
2-Year, 3-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Flip to Rate Hike. Yield Curve Uninverts. Government Sold $606 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week as the Borrowing Must Go On. Whiff of turmoil in the bond market as inflation fears moved to the front...
The Fed’s Inaction is a Green Light for Gold Here’s my take: The data confirms the Fed is way behind the curve. Inflation is out of control, and they can’t rein it in. Their failure to hike rates isn't bearish for...
Inflation surges due to oil shocks. None of the prior episodes had U.S. interest payments reach 5% of GDP. None. Expect inflation to surge again, with the Fed having to justify a rate cut. That is certainly not priced in markets today. https://t.co/W8K6vFstbd Great chart from...
"This rise in gasoline spending could potentially dampen consumers’ ability to spend on “nice-to-have” or discretionary categories. But the “good news” so far is that discretionary spending growth remains solid – in the week to March 14 it was up...
1/6 The 10-year yield was up 13 bps yesterday, closing at 4.38%, the highest level since late July The bond market's view changed in the last few days. 🧵 https://t.co/QnAMwCkKch
