Powell's Final Speech Triggers 4.41% 10‑Year Surge
Fed Chair Jay Powell steps up to the podium one last time. Markets 4.41% 10yr, Spooz 7150, BBDXY 1202.37 1/x https://t.co/Y6jhMca7dd
Fed Faces Unprecedented Internal Division in 21st Century
This might be the most fractious and divided the Fed has been in the 21st century... https://t.co/ejBsNbLtXp
Fed Policymakers Warn Warsh: No Consensus on Rate Cuts
A group of Federal Reserve policymakers sent Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh a clear warning on Wednesday: They're not sold on cutting interest rates. https://t.co/K8PiTAl1aL
Dissenting Fed Voices Signal Future Policy Direction
Why do we listen to Powell when he'll be out after today? Why do we look at the statement? Because the dissents speak volumes, set the tone for what's ahead. Regional Fed Presidents say: we are independent.
New Data Favors Rate Cuts over Further Hikes
The main reason are that the facts have changed. Folks may finally wake up to: 1) Headline & Core PCE >1% above target & rising. 2) Rates are just 0.5%-.75% above neutral 3) Labor market data has at least stabilized (maybe picking up) 4)...
Fed Officials Recognize Easing Bias in Policy Adjustments
"In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments..." The "additional" is the easing bias. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan and everyone else at the Fed understands this.
Hammack, Logan’s Hawkish Dissent Fuels
Hammack and Logan dissenting on "additional" leans hawkish. What amazes me is these two are the architects of tapering, then ending QT, and with Perli flooding the system with RMO reserves. These two literally do not understand monetary...
Fed Insiders Signal No Immediate
I don’t read this isn’t a dissent against Powell per se. Hammack, Kashkari, Logan are giving Warsh a heads up that the FOMC isn’t going to fall in line with any sort of immediate push towards easing
Dissenters’ Reserve Flood Fuels Inflation, Not QT
Two of the three dissenters on the word "additional" are the same ones who stopped QT and flooded the banking system with RMO reserves. I really don't get the logic of Logan, Hammack, Musalem, and in the background...
FOMC Signals to Warsh, Not Powell Losing Control
The dumb take is that Powell has lost control. The smart take is that this is the FOMC telling Warsh he wont have control...
FOMC Splits Grow Near Neutral Rates and Goal Tension
Division at the FOMC should increase as a function of the proximity to neutral and perceived tension of its goals.
Dissents Signal Neutral Bias, Not Powell Weakening
The 3 dissents over the easing bias is not a blow to Powell, like some are saying, but it is a signal to Warsh. The dissents wanted to adopt a more neutral bias. Miran's dissent for a rate cut...
Warsh's Chairmanship Sparks Growing Internal Opposition to Cuts
Internal opposition against cuts is clearly building as Warsh prepares to take over as chair. At his confirmation hearing, he said he wanted "messier" meetings, which it looks like he will get.
FOMC Holds Rates, Four Dissent Over Easing Bias
Interesting. The FOMC holds at 3.50-3.75% as expected, but there were four dissents - 1 voting (Miran) cut and 3 opposing an inclusion of an "easing bias" in the statement
Americans Face Record Job Insecurity, Turning to Gig Work
"Job insecurity readings are at deeply recessionary levels. The average American is very, very nervous about losing their job. We continue to see more gig workers and multiple job holders." https://t.co/aQzDvxTnO6 #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #kevinwarsh #economy https://t.co/n2T5fOTs5Y
Fed Holds Rates, Committee Splits on Future Cut Language
Surprising exactly nobody, the Fed kept rates on hold. More interesting: This is the most divided I've seen a committee vote. They're not divided over the decision (except Miran, but who cares), but over the language, and whether to signal the...
Fed Holds Rates 8-4, Divided Over Easing Bias
Fed votes 8-4 to hold rates steady, the most divisive decision since 1992. Miran wanted a 25bp cut. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan supported the hold but wanted the Fed to remove the easing bias in the statement. The line in question...
Four Fed Dissenters Signal Rare Break From Easing Bias
NEW: There were *four* dissents on the Fed’s rate pause. Three bank presidents wanted to ditch the easing bias, and a governor dissented for a rate cut. The last meeting with four dissents was in 1992. https://t.co/JM88jOXIAg
Powell’s Final Fed Meeting May Raise Guidance, but Influence Wanes
The Fed meeting is approaching, and Powell might raise guidance; we'll see. It's his last Fed meeting, so his stance won't carry as much weight. #mortgagerates #economics #chartdaddy #realestate #housing
Powell's Final Press Conference Sparks Warsh Representation Debate
Today is Jay Powell's (presumed) last press conference as FOMC Chair. With Warsh coming on board, should I represent him with:
Fed's Next Move: Markets See Zero Uncertainty
The Fed announces its next rates decision in half an hour, and there is exactly ZERO uncertainty about what it won't do (at least according to Fed Funds futures markets). https://t.co/Ikedm6uh6c
Worst‑Case Spreads Push Rates Above 7% (202
Rates would have been over 7% already from 2023 to 2025 using the worst levels of the spreads back then. https://t.co/aZUC6h4rQu
Fed Likely Mirrors BoC, Holds Steady Amid Oil Shock
For clues on how Warsh Fed might deal with the oil shock, how looking North? That's because not only is Canada a net exporter of oil, Bank of Canada's Tiff Macklem's core philosophy on monetary policy has some overlap...
Rising Gas Prices Deepen K‑Shaped Inequality, Empower Elite
FWIW - The further gas prices rise, the more our K-Shaped Economy becomes a Top-of-the-K-Dependent Economy.
Fed Refines Max Employment Metric; Warsh’s Critique Remains Vague
Over the past 20 years, the Fed has been building a more rigorous understanding of what maximum employment means and how to pursue it. As he is about much of what the Fed does, Warsh is a vocal critic...
No Fed Dot Plot—FOMC Statement Takes Center Stage
There's no Fed dots today, which means that until Powell's last (and 64th—but who's counting) press conference at 2:30 pm, it's just the FOMC statement to do the heavy lifting. Here's what I'm watching: https://t.co/8sdY0wHDV8
Iran War Pushes Fed Cuts Out Past 2027
Almost three Fed rate cuts have been priced out from July 2027 meeting since beginning of Iran war. The chart below shows the implied rate for July 2027; source: Bloomberg https://t.co/sZt0N3IHO2
Market Eyes Powell's Future at Today's FOMC Meeting
Main thing that's relevant in today's FOMC meeting is any guidance on whether Powell plans to remain as a fed governor or not
Treasuries Near Multi-Year Breakdown Ahead of Powell's Final FOMC
$TLT Weekly. Headed into Powell's final FOMC, Treasuries on brink of not just multi-month breakdown but multi-year as well. Bear flag threat here, which means risk of rates spiking higher yet https://t.co/BKBIEADTxm
Senate Pushes Warsh Nomination Ahead of Fed Decision
Hours before the Fed's rate decision, the Senate Banking Committee advances Kevin Warsh's nomination along party lines. Now the full Senate must vote before May 15, when Powell's term as chair officially ends. https://t.co/6BvH57i0Y8 @nytimes
Fed Holds Rates Hawkishly, Blames Iran War
🚨 FED DAY PLAYBOOK 🚨 3 things we KNOW happen today: ✅ No rate cut ✅ Hawkish hold ✅ Powell blames Iran war for global uncertainty The wild cards 👇 ❓ Does he stay on as a Fed governor? ❓ Inflation worry vs. growth...
US Outperforms, Europe Underperforms: Surprise Gap Widens
US economic data keeps surprising to the upside, while European data keeps surprising to the downside. That gap just keeps growing, according to Bloomberg economic surprise indexes. https://t.co/aOsuCmkgUh
Powell Holds Rates Steady Amid Mixed Economic Data
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will keep interest rates steady on Wednesday as he struggles to parse a bewildering mix of data: rising energy prices, an uncertain labor market and questions over shifting tariff rates. Soon, it will all be Kevin Warsh’s...
Predicting Fed Tone: Green Gains vs Red Declines
Do you see more GREEN or RED 👀 Before every Fed meeting, I build a table comparing how the economy has shifted since the last one to gauge the likely tone. 🟢 Green = improvement 🔴 Red = deterioration So with that in mind…...
Powell's Final Press Conference Could Signal Fed Pivot
Jerome Powell is set to deliver his final FOMC press conference as Fed Chair today, alongside a key interest rate decision at 2PM ET. Markets are on edge as investors look for signals on inflation, rate cuts, and the future path...
Tariffs Outpace Tax Cuts, Raising Net Costs
🎩 @wsj 👉PSA: tariffs are federal sales taxes. “The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that taxpayers will receive about a $188 billion reduction in federal tax liability for 2025” 👉”Those refunds and tax benefits, however, have been more than offset by the...
Oil Hits Record, Yields Firm Ahead of Hawkish FOMC
Two issues dominate today. Oil prices have risen. July Brent is at a new record and June WTI is approaching the March high. Bond yields are firmer. Second, is the FOMC meeting, where a hawkish hold is expected. Warsh...
Nominal Wage Gains Neutralized by Inflation, Real Growth Stalls
Wages Rose. But Workers Barely Moved. 1/ A raise is not a recovery if prices take it back. That is what happened in March 2026. Average hourly earnings rose 3.5%. Consumer prices rose 3.3%. Real wage growth: 0.3%. That is not a wage boom. That is a holding...
Powell Resists Cuts, Successor Pushes Immediate Rate Reductions
Powell's last press conference will argue against rate cuts while his incoming replacement has been calling for them as soon as possible. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/7rXX9awR0b
Fed's Inflation Focus Risks Stock Market Amid Iran War
Will the Fed break the stock market as Chair Powell and the FOMC dial up their focus on inflation amid the US-Iran war? #Fed #FOMC #Powell #IranWar #StockMarket #Dollar #Oil #Gold #Macro #Trading https://t.co/ER2QbNR0qa
S&P Slides; Fed Meeting and Mega‑cap Earnings Dominate
MARKET RECAP 📉 S&P 500 fell lower today, but all eyes are on tomorrow 👀 We have the FOMC and potentially Jerome Powell’s last meeting as Fed chair, alongside 4 of the largest 10 companies in the world reporting earnings. Those...
Assessing $25
If this passes, what impact (if any) do you think @RoKhanna’s $25 minimum wage will have on unemployment rate in California? Show your work. https://t.co/kMug9xSbSQ
Home‑buying Sentiment Hits Multiyear High
The consumer sentiment index on the intent to buy a new #home was released today at a multiyear high. #housing #realestate #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
2020‑Peak US Bonds Lose 30‑50% Real Value
If you bought 10 year US bonds near the peak in 2020, on an after inflation basis, you're still down 30% six years later. If you bought 30 year US bonds instead, you're down over 50%.
Unfilled FOMC Governor Seats Lose Voting Power
FOMC voting procedure geeks. Let's say Warsh is confirmed by June meeting and fills Miran's seat. Let's assume Powell resigns his governorship sometime before the meeting. Its possible that a new governor can be confirmed for Powell's...
Conflicting Consumer Confidence: Record Low vs Rising Survey
So, while the UofM's US Consumer Confidence survey for April dropped to a record low (49.8) in its more than 70 year history, the Conference Board's survey advanced a third straight month... Which one do you think is more indicative... https://t.co/S62aDosNxP
Single‑Family Delinquencies Slip; Multi‑Family Near Bust Levels
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in March Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Near Housing Bust High https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fannie-and-freddie-single-family-b15
Trimmed Mean Inflation Reveals Rising Price Pressures
Latest from @_vikasbp & me: So You Want to Talk About Trimmed Mean Inflation? Warsh has latched onto trimmed mean PCE as his favored gauge If the goal isn't just cherry picking, word to the wise: trimmed mean also signals elevated & rising...
Powell's Final Fed Meeting Could Shift Soft Landing
Jay Powell's last meeting as Fed Chair is Wednesday. He could go out reinforcing a December cut, or blow up the soft landing trade by hinting hikes are back on the table. Markets are not positioned for the second one. Let's Dive into...
Americans Report Worst Financial Outlook in 25 Years
"The share of Americans who say their financial situation is getting worse is higher now than at any point in the past 25 years" https://t.co/bXBhNbd9o4 https://t.co/DKU9wIXtK4