Pre‑tariff Import Rush Skews Trade‑deficit Perception
In early 2025, firms rushed imports ahead of the new tariffs, temporarily widening the trade deficit and building inventories. By late 2025-early 2026, trade flows smoothed back out. Comparisons to the earlier surge misleadingly suggest a sharp decline in the trade deficit. https://t.co/Szb3xgeKmS
Winter Drag Fades, Q2 GDP Rebound Likely
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 8, 2026) Harsh winter weather dragged on growth from December through February. With that headwind fading, a solid Q2 GDP rebound looks increasingly likely. How much of a bounce are you expecting? https://t.co/abrVYc0cb0
Fed Shifts Focus: From Reserve Supply to Demand Liquidity
The Fed’s Overton window appears to be changing. Recent speeches suggest a shift in thinking from supply-driven ample reserves to demand-driven liquidity. Details in my latest newsletter: https://t.co/pPOkB73y6o @vtg2 @NickTimiraos @Isabel_Schnabel @conksresearch https://t.co/RyKoxuTxMA
AI Isn’t Causing 55+ Labor Force Decline, Aging Is
Beware attempts to blame AI for economic trends that aren't actually trends. @WSJ used big drop in labor force participation for 55+ as jump-off for story about AI spurring early retirements But: 55+ LFPR drop ENTIRELY due to aging population 🧵 https://t.co/6Guye6lX6I
Dimes Surge as 10‑yr Yields Dip Below 4.25%
Tplex: Dimes also fired up this morning +23/32nd's 10 Yr Notes below 4.25% (4.238% -10.5 bp's)
GDP 2.3% Growth, CPI Near 3% by Year-End
"Consensus estimates from Bloomberg now project GDP at 2.28% and headline CPI inflation at 3% to end the year." -Josh Schafer
Same‑store Sales Hit YTD High, up 7.6% YoY
Same-store retail sales rose by YTD high 7.6% YoY for the week ending Apr 4 (6.9% prev).
She’s Actually Talking About Betting on NFP Data
Many people making fun of this but I think she just means betting on monthly BLS payroll data (NFP)
Used Car Prices Soar, Signaling New Inflation Pressures
Used Vehicle Wholesale Prices Jumped. That’s How it Started in 2020 when Broad Inflation Took Off. These new inflation pressures suddenly building up in the pipeline are concerning https://t.co/B4HOh7mQGF https://t.co/9BkcLbGOSG
Tariff Threats Spike Energy Prices, Fuel Summer Inflation
This is the tariff playbook all over again. Step 1 - make a crazy threat. Step 2 - make a series of "deals" threatening armageddon two weeks out. The difference here is oil and gas prices won't just revert to...
Jefferson Delivers Most Hawkish Fed Speech Since 2023
According to Fedlock, today's speech from Fed Governor Jefferson was his most hawkish since 2023 https://t.co/rgs6erEO5l
Fed Dovish Shift Boosts Bullish Momentum, Watch ES
The Fed's dovish shift is music to bulls' ears as inflation continues cooling. Markets are already pricing in easier monetary policy ahead. Tomorrow we'll be watching how ES reacts to this momentum using our DOTS indicator for precise entries. https://t.co/66dSROf2rQ...
Efficient Land Use: Hidden Deflator Amid Inflation Talk
I was just at the Dallas Fed, and the conversation was dominated by one question: How long is inflation going to remain a problem? While the main focus is energy and AI, there is a major deflator hiding in plain...
Iran Deal Won’t Reverse Permanent Economic Damage
Even a quick Iran deal won't undo the damage already done. Stock losses, years of elevated oil prices, and a $350B defense budget increase that quietly translates to $3–4K in added taxes per household. The economy doesn't just snap back. Some of...
Fed Hawkishness, Weak Wages, Energy Surge Push Yields Higher
Trifecta of a hawkish Fed, slowing wage growth and surging energy prices seems like a bad combo at a time when household debt delinquencies were already mounting. The 10-year Treasury yield hasn't been this high relative to the growth rate...
Walmart Signals Recession, Yet Bullish Signals Remain
The Walmart indicator is flashing recession. But that’s not the full story. On the latest Jim Paulsen Show, we break down what it’s signaling, the implications of the oil shock, and the bullish indicators most investors are missing. 🎙️https://t.co/6nYM17bPMj 🍏https://t.co/JjLRDxh7gP 📺https://t.co/FzjaKKwQ5m
Core PCE Holds Steady at 3% Amid Iran Shock
Wall Street forecasters estimate the core PCE index (due Thursday) rose 0.39% in February, which would round to 0.4% for the third straight month. Because the Feb 2025 comparison is favorable (it was even higher a year ago), the 12-month rate...
6% Yield Trigger Could Force US Debt Restructuring
See my 10Y yield targets then read this quote by Jeff Gundlach: “Well, I think my base case is that the long-term interest rates on treasuries will move higher until such time as they get to a level that is difficult...
Fed Likely to Cut Rates by Year-End, Says Analyst
In-depth interview with @MilkRoadMacro, covered lots of ground but my prediction for the Fed is different than most analysts: because of what the war and inflation may do to the economy, I think the lower rates by year end, not...
55+ Workforce Participation Hits 20-Year Low at 37%
JUST IN: Workforce participation among Americans 55+ drops to 37%, the lowest in over 20 years
Flat Yields Signal Recession Concerns over Inflation
Should we be concerned that bond yields and mortgage rates are flat/down in the midst of current events? Especially on the back of a hot jobs report... You can call it "wait or see" or maybe things are a lot worse...
Budget Cuts Ahead After Reaching Infrastructure Spending Peak
The new budget will start paring this back, but we seem to have hit peak infrastructure spending this year/next year in terms of real outlays for completed work... https://t.co/b8om2bYNrQ
US Luxury Spending Jumps 12% YoY Through March
"US luxury spending was up 12% year-over-year (YoY) through March 21" - BofA card spending data https://t.co/Al6IqAUC7l
Healthcare Hiring Forces Other Sectors to Cut Jobs
[@opinion] If: -the labor force isn’t growing -healthcare adds at least a couple hundred thousand jobs a year then: -non-healthcare industries (85% of the labor market) have to be constantly shedding a modest number of jobs https://t.co/GVeOyRT44p
Fed's Interest on Reserves Isn't a Politician Spending Shortcut
not sure what’s going on at cato but the fed paying iorb does not “allow politicians to funnel mass spending programs through the Fed’s balance sheet”
Only Free Markets, Not Central Banks, Set Rates
"Central banks in general—and the Fed in particular—are on a mission impossible. They don’t know what the interest rate should be. Nobody does. That’s something only a voluntary market of savers and borrowers, dealing in honest money, can determine." #DebtSpiral
BofA Predicts 0.3% Core Inflation, 1% CPI Rise
BofA: We expect core inflation to increase by 0.3% m/m in March We forecast a 1.0% m/m (0.99% unrounded) increase in headline CPI owing to a 10.6% m/m jump in energy prices. PCE should be cooler but after a hot start to...
Workers Transitioning to Jobs, Unemployment Declines, BofA Says
BofA: More workers have recently been moving into employment and fewer have been flowing into unemployment https://t.co/Xl6kLBsiMC
Fed Rate Cut Looms, Inflation Cools, Bull Market Awaits
Fed's getting ready to cut rates as inflation cools down. Markets love this combo - cheaper money usually means risk-on mode. Going live at 9am NY to trade this bullish setup with our DOTS indicator showing clear signals. https://t.co/66dSROeuCi https://t.co/23feho9DD6
Rising PMI Prices‑Paid Index Signals Potential CPI Surge
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 6, 2026) PMI prices-paid indexes are flashing a warning: CPI inflation may be headed higher in the coming months. Is this rebound transitory or the start of something more persistent? https://t.co/7FFNkHNo0W
Stagflation, Debt Surge Prompt Rate Cuts, Boost Real Assets
Ladies and gentlemen: Stagflation at record debt levels. Now imagine being forced to cut rates as inflation reaccelerates. Real assets are about to get very interesting. https://t.co/KMgGEdt8ru https://t.co/hbpbojd6Yg
Trump Tariffs Trigger Another $15‑20 B in Farm Subsidies
Another $15-$20 billion in US farmer subsidies may be coming, thanks (again) to Trump's tariffs: https://t.co/872jQQ9zXA https://t.co/q8my1D6OiM
Investors Prefer Inflation Swaps Over Sketchy 1‑Year TIPS
Glad folks are finally using the inflation swap.. not the often-sketchy 1yr TIPS breakeven rate... remember this chart that made the rounds in March lol https://t.co/pHxDS0B0gu
ISM Services Data Reveals Hidden Stagflation Amid Rally
The S&P 500 rose for a fourth straight day. Markets rallied on ceasefire hope. But the ISM Services report just delivered the clearest stagflation signal since 2022 and nobody noticed. Prices Paid surged to 70.7%. Employment contracted to 45.2%. Service...
Post‑pandemic Inflation Driven by Services Wages, Models Miss
Fed research suggests the inflation engine may be running differently across advanced economies since the pandemic: 1/ More categories continue to see price growth above 3%, with broad-based wage growth in services appearing to be a key driver 2/ Even categories with...
Hiring Slows as Service Orders Surge to Three‑year High
There are signs that businesses are increasingly reluctant to hire right now, even amid robust consumer spending. The employment component of today's ISM Services data came in at the weakest since 2023, even as new orders picked up to the...
ISM Services Shows Rising Costs, Still Resilient Growth
Today’s ISM Services data reinforces the dual narrative of rising input prices and a resilient real economy. (The one caveat is that while the economy remains expansionary, the momentum wasn’t as robust as in previous months.) #economy #markets #growth #inflation
US Labor Data Shows Economy Still Robust
Labour market indicators suggest the US economy is still going strong. This and more in the today's Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/DZsTza1fHV
Wells Fargo Predicts Fed Rates Staying High Until 2026
Higher for longer: Wells Fargo expects the Fed to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% through 2026 @seekingalpha https://t.co/cSdOS8R4z6
Airline Fares Signal Upcoming CPI Inflation Rise
Not an encouraging sign... this is a solid indicator of future airline prices and CPI inflation. via "Airlines for America" website https://t.co/zXUKyVcVvd
ISM Manufacturing Employment Signals Lower 2026 Recession Risk
The Polymarket recession odds for 2026 are 36%. I believe that is an overestimation. Consider the employment component of ISM Manufacturing. It bottomed nine reports ago, at 43.4, and is on the mend. This index often breaks below 40 for...
US Deficits Projected Near 7% of GDP by 2026
PIMCO: .. US budget deficits likely “grow to ~7% of GDP for 2026. Even if the amount of the supplemental request were halved to $100bn, deficits could grow to ~6.6% ..” https://t.co/fVC6QpbqzB
St. Louis Fed Spread Hit 3.11% on June 1 2023
Always remember that the spreads are quoted differently depending on who you're quoting mortgage rates with. The St. Louis Fed spread's recent high was June 1, 2023, at 3.11% https://t.co/sraBmi3n5u
Weekly US Inflation Updates Vs. Fed Forecasts Begin
Tomorrow, with mtks back to full liquidity, we will start a run of US inflation updates for the week. We start with the NY Fed's Consumer Inflation Expectations reading, then Thursday we have the Fed's preferred PCE deflator and Friday...
Oil Spike Triggers Biggest Monthly Inflation Rise Since 2022
We just saw largest monthly inflation increase since 2022. Most people still don't realize exactly why this happened and what the implications are. It starts with oil. Oil is the backbone of the global economy, so when it spikes, the impact doesn’t stay...
March Jobs Surge, Unemployment Drops to 4.2%
BofA Mar jobs: Spring in full bloom...Across the board strength...Jobs surged, but in part due to weather and strike payback All eyes were on the u-rate decline to 4.2%...Slower but still stable income growth...feast for the hawks https://t.co/Z4apZhQNN2
Rising Gas Prices Could Undermine Tax Refund Gains
We asked Kevin Hassett whether rising gas prices threaten the economic benefits of higher refunds and tax benefits…
Conflicting Data Undermines Trust in NFP Service Jobs
Best month for service-sector employment (+143k) since December 2024 if you believe the nonfarm payroll report. Worst month since December 2023 if you believe the ISM survey that just came out. Take your pick, because they both can’t be right. Thing is –...
Trump's 2027 Budget Prioritizes Defense, Cuts Social Programs
trump's proposed 2027 budget. defense up $440.9 billion. most everything else — health, housing, education, labor, agriculture — cut.
US Services Slow, Prices Surge, Jobs Slip
The ISM's US service sector activity report for March was worse than expected. Headline reading dropped to 54.0 from 56.1 - still expanding, above 50.0. Price gauge surges to 70.7 - highest since Oct 2022. Jobs gauge drops to 45.2 - lowest...