ISM Non‑Manufacturing PMI Forecast Signals Rate‑Risk, Short Bills Hedge
Macro: ISM Non‑Manufacturing PMI (exp 55.0) will set US growth/inflation tone. Key: new orders, employment, prices. Risk: hot print reprices rates. Trade: favor short bills to hedge duration. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
US Labor Market Paradox: Low Demand, Shrinking Workforce
This is the Weirdest US Labor Market I’ve Ever Seen. Demand for labor is weak amid job destruction at federal & state governments, which should push up unemployment. But the supply of labor has plunged https://t.co/AyqHHkWDji Federal government jobs lowest since 1966. Hi...
Manufacturing Jobs May Rise Slightly, Yale Predicts
I do think its important to note it would not be shocking if manufacturing employment moves higher over the year. It is hard to say because of downstream losses from higher input costs, but factories are being completed. The Yale...
Trump Pushes Higher Defense Spending Amid Slowing Growth
During the Clinton reign (1993-2001), US defense spending fell from 4.3% to 2.9% of GDP - while GDP SOARED at 4.0%/year. As the economy slumps to 2.1%/yr GDP growth, Trump proposes to increase the defense budget from ~3.0% to 5.0% of...
March Jobs Surge, yet Participation Drops, Fed Mixed Signal
March jobs blew past expectations (+303K!), but look closer. Prime-age worker participation fell & part-time work spiked. A mixed signal for the Fed. JobsReport
U.S. Jobs Shift Toward Generalists, Entrepreneurs, Rare Specialists
The U.S. labor market may start to look more like 1980s Japan -- generalists looking for ways to fill in the weaknesses of AI, small businesspeople striking out on their own, and a few specialists with valuable skills. https://t.co/wRA2yG2bYg
March Jobs Look Strong, but Core Hiring Weak
March jobs came in at 178K. Headline looks like a blowout. It will likely be interpreted as such. Payrolls: Too Hot. UE at 4.3%: Just Right. Worth noting: 32K of those jobs were striking workers at Kaiser and Starbucks coming back...
March Jobs Data Reflects Reversal After February Distortions
US Jobs Report @HedgeyeUSA 1. Feb NFP #’s were negatively distorted by weather, strikes, et al .. so March benefited from the reversal 2. Given the distortions, revisions & labor supply dynamics, most of the signal in the monthly employment data...
March Workweek Dip Stalls Payroll Growth, 12‑month Rise at 3.9%
From the March payroll report: INCOMES: A drop in the average workweek in March led to very little growth in the index of aggregate weekly payrolls for private-sector workers (which combines hiring, wages, and hours). The 12-month change ticked down to...
Both Employment Levels and Hiring Flows Matter for Labor Health
Great @lydiadepillis article. One of the things I became convinced of at CEA is that stocks (employment) & flows (hires, fires, ease of finding a job) are both important to labor market health, but economists tend to weight the former...
US Services PMI Shows Declining Activity, Slowing Hiring
"Business activity declines amid higher inflation and war in the Middle East ... Employment down amid weakest rise in new work for nearly two years" - S&P US Services PMI https://t.co/4ESKcLv1IC
Jobs Surge, Unemployment Dips Despite Weaker Household Data
US job growth bounced back in Mar, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, suggesting the labor market was holding up as the war w/Iran began. Employers added 178k jobs, easily beating forecasts of 60k. Still, the household survey painted a...
Job Growth at 53k Matches Breakeven for Stable Unemployment
GS: Our estimate of the underlying pace of job growth now stands at 53k, roughly in line with our estimate of the breakeven pace of job growth needed to keep the unemployment rate stable. https://t.co/FCJycyPkFU
Healthcare Drives US Job Growth as Other Sectors Shrink
The big picture: The US economy has added only 260,000 jobs in the past year. 380,000 jobs were added in healthcare. Most other industries *lost* jobs Federal gov't -330,000 in past year Information -76,000 Manufacturing -75,000 Finance -67,000 State gov't -47,000 Professional services -40,000 Retail -30,000 Mining -17,000 #jobs
March Jobs Data Removes Fed Trade‑off Pressure
What does the March jobs report mean for the Fed? It keeps one of the harder problems off the table. Powell said this week the war created the possibility of a greater inflation/labor market tradeoff but said the Fed didn't face...
March Jobs Surge 178K, Unemployment Falls to 4.3%
March jobs came in much stronger than expected 178,000 added versus 59,000 forecast Unemployment dipped to 4.3% Healthcare continues to drive most of the gains https://t.co/UmQcN0lnw8
US Industries Struggle over the Past 18 Months
Last 18 months have not been good for US industries. This and more in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/xPfF8XxwJO
March Adds 178K Jobs, Double Forecast, Rivals 2025 Total
US employers added 178,000 jobs in March. This was over twice as high as the consensus of 60,000. For context, jobs added in March nearly matched the yearly total for all of 2025, when only 181,000 jobs were added. https://t.co/HhjdreSvui
Jobs Surge Boosts Main Street, Participation Rate Still Lags
My five main takeaways from this morning’s strong March US Jobs Report: 1. Great news for Main Street: With a blockbuster 178,000 jobs added and unemployment dropping to 4.3%, the labor market is outperforming expectations. 2. The supply-side challenge: The labor force...
Payroll Surge and Falling Unemployment Boost Bull Market
Good sign supporting the bull market U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Jump 178K in March, Beating Expectations as Unemployment Falls to 4.3%
Job Gains Surge 178K, Unemployment Holds at 4.3%
Dude can use some good news: Job creation spiked up 178K w/#unemployment held steady at 4.3%. Get ready for a #Trump victory dance. #realestate #CRE #economy #interestrates #mortgage #TheFed #finance https://t.co/PZiEZSvGF9
Wage Growth Slows to 3.5%, Threatened by Rising Inflation
Important point: Wage growth slowed in March to 3.5%. That's the lowest since May 2021. 3.5% looks decent, but we're in the midst of a big surge inflation as gas and transport costs rise. We could easily hit 4%+ inflation, which will...
US Jobs Surge 178K, Biggest Upside Surprise Since Jan 2024
Given the backdrop of the US economy, the net +178K increase in #NFPs is good relative to the +50K expected, rendering the biggest upside 'surprise' since January 2024 https://t.co/wrWXmWQyXu
March Payroll Surge Likely Unsustainable, New Data Shows
If you think the reported jump in payrolls in March is sustainable, I have some news: https://t.co/zRB6pq1mqD
Low Claims Make 15K Monthly Jobs Viable
As long as jobless claims stay low, adding 15,000 jobs per month for 3 years will be acceptable for a neutral policy.
Surprise US Payrolls Lift Yields, Hit Emerging Markets
The last thing the word needed this morning was strong US data. But that's what we got. A +1.5 standard deviation surprise on payrolls that's pushed up the 2-year yield 5 basis points, which is broadly in line with its...
Job Market Rebounds: 178K March Jobs, Unemployment at 4.3%
The job market continues to be reasonably good (for an aging workforce with low net immigration). 178K jobs in March, much a bounceback from strikes and weather that resulted in -133K (revised) in February. The three month average is 68K. Urate ticked...
Job Growth Breakeven Low; Wages Slow, Healthcare Leads
Labor market thoughts: -Clearly, the breakeven job growth number to maintain stable unemployment is low right now -Nominal job growth is muted, entirely concentrated in healthcare -Wage growth continues to slow, aggregate payroll growth is consistent with maybe 4% NGDP growth
Unemployment Hits 4.3%, Jobs Surge Beyond Forecast
US Unemployment Rate moved down to 4.3% in March, the lowest level since last August & well below the historical average of 5.7%. 178k jobs were added vs. 51k expected (but February revised⬇️to -133k from -92k). YoY wage growth: +3.5%,...
NFP Beats, Unemployment Drops, yet No Fed Cuts Ahead
NFP beats, for now. Big picture, the chart shows a deceleration trend - with some some big monthly swings of late. Unemployment down to 4.3% = no Fed rate cuts. Is good news bad or good - I lose track ;-) Wage growth...
Unemployment Down, Labor Force Shrinks: Hidden Weakness
Here's the somewhat troubling news in the jobs report: The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, but not for great reasons. There's a big drop (almost -400k) in the labor force. The labor force participation rate also fell. It appears people stopped looking...
NFP 178k: Overhyped Amid Low Expectations
I am aghast listening to people on TV discuss the NFP report of 178k as "Blowout numbers." This is an okay number, not as bad as some recent data points, not as good as others. Call it the soft prejudice of...
Healthcare Gains While Other Sectors Lose Jobs
Over the past year the US economy has added 680,000 healthcare and social assistance jobs and lost 420,000 jobs in all other industries.
Labor Market Volatility Still Signals US Economic Momentum
The labor market takes a licking and keeps on ticking. The volatility in the labor market makes it challenging to parse the signal from the noise, but it does suggest momentum in the U.S. economy despite headwinds.
Fed Must Prioritize Growth Over Inflation in Stagflation
This is rapidly becoming one of the most pronounced stagflationary environments in decades. Inflation is accelerating while growth is rolling over sharply. That leaves the Fed in a real bind. At these levels of debt, you either save growth or kill inflation. Policymakers will...
Manufacturing Adds 15k Jobs, yet Overall Employment Falls 75k
15k job gain in manufacturing is largest one-month gain since a 22K rise in November 2023, but employment is still down 75k YOY
U.S. Debt Interest Costs Surge Past $1 Trillion by 2026
U.S. net interest payments on the federal debt (in billions of dollars) by fiscal year: 2020: $345 2021: $352 2022: $475 2023: $659 2024: $882 2025: $970 2026: $1,000B (projected to exceed $1 trillion) Got hard assets?
Payrolls Stuck in Ten-Month Yo‑Yo Alternation
With today's blockbuster +178k print on payrolls we've now been in a bizarre yo-yo pattern alternating between positive and negative payroll numbers for ten straight months, dating to last June. https://t.co/LSW4ELkTYg
March Payrolls Rise 178k; Unemployment Holds at 4.3%
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Robust Jobs Gains Push Unemployment to 4.3%, Yields Rise
Good jobs report with 178k job growth and the unemployment rate edging down to 4.3%. The revisions were small at 7K. Bond yields rise. (Note this report was pre-war.)
Jobless Rate Drops, but Labor Participation Declines
+178K NFP, +68K 3MMA, -7K 2M revisions U3 rate down -0.18pp to 4.26% (good) but this happened because EPOP down -0.04pp & LFPR down -0.16pp (not good) https://t.co/fDs33qdA2H
Official Unemployment Falls, Broader Underemployment Climbs to 8%
The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%, but the U-6 underemployment rate rose to 8.0% https://t.co/3G8tKnf7pR
March Adds 178k Jobs, Unemployment Drops to 4.3%
The economy added +178,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. But revisions sent February to -133,000 from -92,000. January was revised up to +160,000 from +126,000.
Quiet Market Ahead of March Payroll; Globex Closes Early
Cozy mini market day for the release of the March payroll report. Globex closes at 11:15 am for Good Friday
Foreign Central Banks Boost Fed Holdings by $3.3 Bn
The week ending Wednesday was the first in six weeks that foreign central banks did not draw on their custody holdings (Treasuries and Agencies) at the Federal Reserve. In fact, their holdings increased by almost $3.3 bln. See https://t.co/VPY5kkVh5i
Fed's Oversized Balance Sheet Undermines Inflation Goals
The essay from Lorie Logan is excellent. Unfortunately the tradeoffs of balance sheet size vs public good have been and continue to be mistakenly biased to narrow goals and miss the big picture which remains a failure of the...
Jobless Claims Hint March Unemployment May Dip
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 2, 2026) Jobless claims data rarely lies. The 4-week moving average suggests March may bring a lower unemployment rate than February's 4.4%. Is the labor market more resilient than the headlines suggest? https://t.co/Q9AwUK9yDy
Nominal Trade Rebounds: Exports Surge, Imports Match Biden Levels
A thread on the February 2026 trade data, with some answers and some questions -- Both nominal imports and nominal exports (ex petrol) are growing again -- with surprising strength in nominal exports and nominal imports back at their end Biden...
Energy
GS: 10 charts we are watching: Goldilocks faces a Balanced Bear The energy shock results in a pickup in inflation as well as weaker growth and less policy easing After the bullish start to the year, our Risk Appetite Indicator declined but...
AI Bad for Writing, Great for Hawkish Speech Scoring
Kinda mixed feelings about using AI. For writing it’s definitely bad. But I think it’s totally fine to use an LLM to gauge which of two (anonymized) FOMC speeches is more hawkish (macro context dependent) and repeat that thousands of...