US Economy Blogs and Articles
US Economy Blogs and Articles
Senate Bill 513, approved by Connecticut's Finance Committee, would extend the federal pass‑through entity tax credit to middle‑income earners making over $50,000, offering roughly $1,100 in annual savings. The program lets participants voluntarily reduce their salary in exchange for a larger refundable tax credit, boosting take‑home pay without costing employers or the state. The bipartisan effort, championed by Senators Paul Honig and John Fonfara, mirrors a similar New York initiative and now moves to the full Senate before the May 6 deadline.
The Cleveland Federal Reserve nowcast shows headline CPI rising 0.84% month‑over‑month in March, driven largely by sharp increases in gasoline and diesel prices. Weekly gasoline prices are up 26.2% year‑over‑year, while diesel has surged 50.4% over the same period. By...
Job openings slipped to 6.9 million in February, down from 7.2 million in January, while total hires fell to 4.8 million, pushing the hiring rate to a low 3.1 %—the weakest since April 2020. Quits edged lower to 3.1 million and layoffs held steady at 1.7 million,...
US home prices continued to fall in real terms, with the Case‑Shiller 20‑City Index posting only a 1.2% year‑over‑year gain in January, the slowest since July 2023. The broader National Index rose just 0.9% YoY, lagging the 2.4% headline CPI...
The U.S. hiring rate has slipped to a 15‑year low, the weakest since 2009. For the eighth straight month, unemployed workers outnumbered available job openings, indicating a shift from the previously tight labor market. Monthly hires fell to roughly 150,000,...
Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly expressed his lack of confidence in the economic models used to forecast markets, noting that no system has reliably predicted the economy. He highlighted that while large language models (LLMs) have advanced dramatically, they remain...
U.S. consumer confidence rose in March, with the Conference Board index climbing to 102 and the University of Michigan sentiment index edging up to 71.5. Despite the improvement, the surveys reveal a lingering pessimism about future economic conditions, as expectations...
The Labor Department’s JOLTS report shows February job openings at 6.882 million, missing the 6.918 million forecast. Hires slipped to 4.849 million, while quits fell to 2.974 million, indicating waning worker confidence. Layoffs and discharges rose modestly to 1.721 million. These figures suggest a cooling...
Construction wage growth, which had slowed throughout 2023 and most of 2024, re‑accelerated in November 2024. By February 2025, production‑employee earnings were up 5.1% year‑over‑year, the strongest gain in over two years. Specialty‑trade contractors led the surge, with a 6.5%...
The Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) gauges U.S. manufacturing health, with readings above 50 indicating expansion. A backtest linking PMI to the S&P 500 shows a 7.3% annual return when the index stays above 50, slightly underperforming...
Bison Coolers, a Texas‑born brand, is seeing rapid growth as local consumers seek rugged refrigeration for outdoor work and recreation. Recent data shows the Cooler Industry Sentiment Metric (ISM) climbing, while non‑performing loans (NPLs) across the region are also rising,...
The Conference Board will release its March consumer confidence index tomorrow, with a nowcast estimate of 86.6 points based on a regression model that incorporates University of Michigan sentiment, gasoline price growth, and lagged confidence. Bloomberg’s consensus forecast is slightly...
Long‑term U.S. Treasury yields rose during the week ending March 27, 2026. The 30‑year note gained 0.02 percentage points, while the benchmark 10‑year yield climbed 0.05 points to 4.44 percent. The 3‑year Treasury rate settled at 3.94 percent. The modest increases reflect ongoing market expectations of...
Judd Kessler, a Wharton professor and author of *Lucky by Design*, explains how market design governs the allocation of scarce resources—from organ transplants and school seats to concert tickets and restaurant reservations. He illustrates that many everyday “luck” moments are...
The Daily Feather revisits Sylvia Plath’s *The Bell Jar* as a lens for today’s consumer gloom. It highlights that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 53.3 in March, the lowest reading since December. The slide is tied...
The week ahead is data‑heavy, with Eurozone inflation, U.S. payrolls and retail sales, and Canada’s GDP on the calendar. Energy‑price pressure from the Iran conflict could push euro‑area inflation higher, complicating the ECB’s path to price stability. In the United...
German inflation data, driven by higher energy prices, is set to rise sharply in March, prompting the ECB to consider a June rate hike despite likely looking through the spike. Market pricing reflects a 55% probability of an April hike...
The Macrotourist examines whether rising oil prices or higher interest rates are the primary drag on economic growth. Using recent data, the piece shows oil spikes have historically preceded slowdowns, but recent Fed tightening appears to have a more immediate...
The article highlights a sharp rise in US Treasury yields after an inflation shock tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The 10‑year note closed at 4.44%, and analysts warn that a move toward 5% would confirm fears...
The White House will release the FY 2026 federal budget on April 3, three months later than the statutory February 2 deadline. The accompanying Economic Report of the President must follow within ten days, setting the fiscal agenda for the...
The article argues that the Federal Reserve’s 24,000‑person workforce is bloated and calls for a 20‑30% staff reduction, especially among economists. It urges a comprehensive audit of the Fed’s self‑funded budget, which has consistently outpaced federal spending. The piece highlights...
Traders are eyeing the upcoming U.S. jobs report amid a fragile labor market that could see consecutive weekly losses. Recent data show hiring slowing while unemployment hovers near historic lows, raising concerns about momentum. However, asset price swings are being...
The week ahead is dominated by central‑bank minutes and key data releases that could reshape monetary policy trajectories. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes reveal a hawkish tone after a 25‑basis‑point hike to 4.10%, while the Eurozone’s CPI flash jumps...
The week of March 30‑April 1 will be unusually quiet in Washington as Congress and most regulators pause for Easter and Passover, but key events include a moderated discussion with Fed Chair Jay Powell at Harvard and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman...
Health care spending in the U.S. rose from about 5% of GDP in 1960 to 17% in 2010, then slowed markedly after 2010. Cutler and Klarnet attribute the slowdown to five factors—cost‑saving technology (≈21%), reduced demand (10‑26%), supply‑side price reductions...
The University of Michigan’s final March consumer sentiment index slipped to 53.3, down from the preliminary 55.5 reading. Expectations fell 4.9 points from February, outpacing the 2‑point dip in current conditions caused by higher gasoline prices. Analysts attribute the broader...
U.S. consumer confidence slipped sharply in March as the Michigan sentiment index was revised down to 53.3, a six‑percent decline from February and the lowest reading recorded in 2026. The drop reflects heightened anxiety over the war‑induced surge in gasoline...
U.S. initial unemployment claims edged up by 5,000 to 210,000 for the week ending March 21, aligning with economists’ expectations. Continuing claims dropped to 1.819 million, the lowest level since May 2024, indicating a tightening labor market. The Federal Reserve is...
Initial unemployment claims held steady at 210.5 k, matching the prior week and hovering near the lowest levels recorded since 1969. Continuing claims fell to 1.819 million, the smallest figure since May 2024, reinforcing the trend of a tight labor market. Bloomberg’s sentiment...
At the March 18 FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell asked whether policymakers should look through the surge in oil prices triggered by the Iran‑Ukraine conflict. Recent data show import prices for consumer goods and industrial supplies climbing 5‑6% year‑over‑year,...
On March 10, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget released “Break Glass,” warning that the U.S. has virtually no fiscal space to absorb another shock. National debt has climbed to roughly 130% of GDP, surpassing the World War II peak...
Barclays predicts the European Central Bank will begin tightening as early as next month, with two rate hikes anticipated in 2024, driven by a renewed energy‑inflation shock stemming from the Middle East conflict. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected...
Federal Reserve Governor Miran delivered a strongly dovish speech, arguing that inflation risks are muted despite a recent oil price surge. He cited measurement challenges and minimal impact on market inflation expectations, while warning that the labor market is on...
The escalating war with Iran is hitting the U.S. rental market just as spring home‑buying optimism waned. Higher energy prices and supply‑chain disruptions are pushing landlords to raise rents, while prospective buyers face tighter credit and lingering mortgage‑rate uncertainty. The...
The U.S. regulator’s latest proposal to ease capital adequacy rules for the nation’s largest banks marks a reversal of post‑2008 reforms aimed at curbing systemic risk. Critics argue the move weakens loss‑absorbing buffers, reviving the “too‑big‑to‑fail” dynamic that forces taxpayers...
The webcast examines Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and his likely dovish stance under presidential pressure. It models three possible durations of the Iran conflict to gauge their impact on monetary policy under Warsh...
Erika McEntarfer, former Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, was abruptly dismissed by President Trump on August 1, 2025. She recounts a chaotic termination day and a prior encounter with the Department of Government Efficiency, which proposed replacing statisticians with...
Core CPI excluding shelter has hovered near a 2% annual rate for almost four years, while rent inflation is finally showing signs of moderation. The article argues that continued new home construction is essential to keep rent growth in check....
U.S. Treasury yields rose for a third consecutive week, with the 30‑year rate up 0.06 percentage points and the 10‑year climbing 0.11 points to 4.39%. The 3‑year Treasury held steady at 3.90%. The upward movement reflects market expectations of sustained...
The U.S. economy remains resilient, yet signs of fragility are emerging. DataTrek’s Jessica Rabe highlights a sharp decline in the job‑openings‑to‑unemployed ratio, now below 1.0x at 0.9x, though still above the 0.7x long‑run norm. Rising oil prices could disrupt the...
U.S. federal debt has breached $39 trillion, up $2 trillion in eight months and $2.8 trillion since the July 2025 debt‑ceiling suspension. The Congressional Budget Office now projects debt climbing to about $64 trillion by 2036, roughly $2.4 trillion annually. This trajectory forces the Federal...
U.S. labor market weakness is simultaneously curbing both supply and demand, ending the steady inflow of passive capital into equities. Immigration has stalled, population growth slowed to 0.5%, and labor‑force participation fell back to 62%, while AI and higher rates...
Operation ‘Rage Flip’ erupted in late March, exposing extreme price volatility as a chart‑driven rally flipped a steep decline into a rapid surge. Traders on the floor, including Stephen Walton, described the move as a herd‑culling event that overwhelmed typical...
The Iran war has so far left the US economy largely intact, with the Atlanta Fed nowcasting a 2.1% annualized Q1 GDP rise and the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index at 2.6%, suggesting stable activity through mid‑March. While global oil...
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Market Probability Tracker released a revised three‑month average SOFR outlook covering June 2026 through December 2028. The new projection lifts the expected rate path relative to the February 27 forecast, placing the current target range at 350‑375 basis points....
U.S. new‑home sales plunged in February, posting a 9.5% month‑over‑month decline—the steepest drop since 2013. The slowdown coincided with mortgage rates hovering above 7%, weakening buyer affordability. Builder confidence fell to its lowest level since 2020, and unsold inventory rose...
The U.S. producer price index (PPI) posted a 0.7% headline increase, with core and core‑core measures both rising 0.5%, outpacing market forecasts. The stronger‑than‑expected numbers underscore lingering inflationary pressure despite recent easing in consumer price trends. The post uses the...
The latest Consumer Price Index showed a modest 0.3% monthly increase, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.2%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious stance, warning against premature rate cuts. The data sparked a 1.2% pullback in the S&P...
The five‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven inflation rate has climbed to 2.66%, marking a 0.26‑percentage‑point increase since the onset of the war. The rise is captured alongside the DKW model’s inflation expectations, both plotted against the Treasury spread. A parallel chart links...
