US Economy Blogs and Articles
US Economy Blogs and Articles
Mortgage rates rebounded Wednesday, climbing to the highest levels seen in several months after three rapid repricings. A stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index lifted inflation expectations, while a $6 jump in crude oil pushed bond yields higher. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious comments further dampened hopes for near‑term rate cuts, extending the market’s next‑cut timeline to April 2027. The combined effect moved the market’s perception of a possible Fed hike from near zero to roughly a 5% probability.
The Cleveland Federal Reserve released a nowcast for March headline CPI that blends traditional CPI and PCE data with daily oil and weekly gasoline prices. Rising oil prices—Brent near $109 and gasoline at $3.72 per gallon—are pushing the nowcast upward....
Jerome Powell’s Wednesday press conference highlighted two core messages. First, the Federal Reserve is still waiting for tariff‑related price pressures to filter through the economy, a lag that officials hope will resolve around mid‑year. Second, Powell emphasized that it is...
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the 5.25%‑5.50% range, reaffirming its projection that rates will remain at this level through 2026. The decision followed a two‑day policy meeting marked by cautious deliberations but no...
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its policy rate at the 3.50%‑3.75% range, marking a second consecutive pause after three 25‑basis‑point cuts in late 2025. Markets have already priced in the hold, so investors will focus on Chair Jerome...
U.S. wholesale price growth accelerated sharply in March 2026, marking the third consecutive month of above‑trend increases according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Wholesale Price Index rose 0.7% month‑over‑month and 4.2% year‑over‑year, the fastest pace since 2022. The...
The latest balance‑of‑payments data shows that when the U.S. goods trade balance is adjusted for gold, the deficit expands beyond the headline figure. The red line in the chart, representing the gold‑adjusted balance, sits noticeably lower than the blue unadjusted...
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $13 bn of 20‑year notes at a 4.817% yield, stopping 0.7 bps through the issue price. Bid‑to‑cover climbed to 2.76, outpacing the six‑auction average. Foreign indirect demand surged to 69.2%, the highest since April 2025, while direct bidder participation...
The Daily Feather’s new post spotlights the oddball nicknames of U.S. colleges, zeroing in on Wichita State University’s “Shockers.” It traces the Shockers moniker to early 20th‑century wheat‑harvesting students who earned a reputation for “shocking” the grain. The article pairs...
U.S. industrial production posted a fourth consecutive monthly gain in February, rising 0.2% month‑over‑month and 1.44% year‑over‑year, outpacing the 0.1% consensus. Manufacturing output mirrored the broader trend, also expanding 0.2% MoM, with durable goods edging up 0.1% and nondurables up...
The January 2026 JOLTS report shows labor turnover stalled despite job openings rising to 6.9 million. Total hires held steady at 5.3 million and quits slipped to 3.1 million, while layoffs edged down, reinforcing a “no‑hire, no‑fire” environment. This follows a 2025 slowdown...
U.S. industrial production rose 0.2% in February, edging past the 0.1% forecast and following a robust 0.7% gain in January. Capacity utilization held at 76.3%, still well below its long‑run average, signaling lingering slack in the sector. Manufacturing output matched...
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey slipped to a -0.20 index in March, well below the 3.90 estimate. New orders edged higher while shipments plunged, creating a mixed demand picture. Delivery times stretched and supply availability weakened, yet employment rose modestly...
Inflation surged to 9.1% in mid‑2022 due to pandemic disruptions and the Russia‑Ukraine war, then fell sharply in 2023 despite unemployment staying low. The traditional sacrifice ratio—unemployment needed to cut inflation—proved near zero, challenging Phillips‑curve expectations. Tariff hikes in 2025‑26...
Goldman Sachs’ tracking model nudged its February core PCE inflation nowcast higher, while the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast suggests lower instantaneous inflation for February and March. The two estimates diverge because Goldman Sachs blends judgmental inputs with data, whereas the...
The Federal Reserve is confronting a new supply‑side shock that threatens to revive inflationary pressures as geopolitical tensions persist. Central banks are diverging, with Australia likely to raise rates again while Europe and the UK pause policy tightening. This split...
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q4 2025 shows a modest slowdown, trailing the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) projection. Goldman Sachs, assuming a 21‑day Strait of Hormuz disruption, trims its growth estimate from 2.5 % to 2.2 % year‑over‑year. The SPF survey, collected...
Betting markets have lifted the implied probability of a U.S. recession in 2026 following the onset of Gulf War III, signaling heightened concern over an oil‑price shock. Although the implied recession odds have eased slightly since their peak, they remain well...
The latest business‑cycle data show Q4 GDP growth slashed by roughly half compared with the prior estimate, while consumer spending missed consensus by almost 0.5 percentage point on an annualized basis. Revised non‑farm payroll figures indicate a modest downward bias...
In the debut episode of Gundlach Unlocked, DoubleLine founder Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target and that long‑term rates have stalled despite recent cuts. He also sees the U.S. dollar entering a...
U.S. Treasury markets experienced a sharp front‑end rally this week, with two‑year yields climbing roughly 20 basis points while ten‑year yields added about 12 basis points. The differential move produced a bear‑flattened curve, indicating heightened short‑term rate pressure. Market participants...
The ongoing Middle East conflict is driving oil prices up, reviving concerns about a U.S. recession. Economists note that higher energy costs could reignite inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to balance rate cuts against potential hikes. Multiple geopolitical flashpoints—from Iran...
Goldman Sachs lifted its 12‑month recession probability to 25%, up five points after February’s disappointing jobs report and rising oil prices. The bank highlighted a 92,000‑job loss, unemployment climbing to 4.44% and a projected 4.6% rate by Q3, signaling a...
U.S. core inflation accelerated to a 3.1% year‑over‑year increase in January 2026, the fastest pace in nearly two years. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the data after a delay caused by the prolonged government shutdown. This measure, the Fed’s...
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth‑quarter 2024 GDP growth to roughly 0.5% annualized, half of the initially reported rate. The slowdown coincides with persistently high inflation, reinforcing concerns of a stagflationary environment. Business leaders across diverse sectors report...
Market‑based platforms are signaling a notable recession risk for the United States by the end of 2026. Polymarket’s probability sits at 32%, down from a recent 37% peak, while Kalshi’s odds have climbed to 31.6% after a February surge. Goldman...
The Federal Reserve’s rate‑setting calculus is increasingly tied to volatile energy prices, which have surged amid geopolitical tensions and supply constraints. Market participants are using SOFR and Fed Funds futures to price the likelihood of upcoming policy moves, with recent...
Core CPI remained mild in January‑February 2026, but the Fed‑preferred core PCE is projected to outpace it sharply. Economists expect core PCE to rise about 3.1% year‑over‑year, creating the widest CPI‑PCE gap in decades. The divergence stems from differing weightings,...
U.S. equities posted their worst weekly decline in nearly a year as an energy‑driven stagflation scenario unfolded following a sharp spike in oil prices tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The article attributes the shock to escalating...
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $54.5 billion in January, well below the $66.6 billion forecast and the revised $72.9 billion December figure. A surge in gold and other precious‑metal exports contributed roughly $9 billion of the improvement, while imports fell modestly. Capital‑goods exports,...
U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 213,000, modestly under the 215,000 forecast. The four‑week moving average slipped to 212,000, while continuing claims held steady at 1.85 million, matching expectations. Revised prior‑week figures show a small dip in both initial and...
Grocery prices are climbing faster than last year, according to recent CPI‑food‑at‑home data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a year‑over‑year increase of about 5% in the first quarter of 2024, outpacing the 2023 rate. The Economic Research Service’s forecast...
U.S. consumer price index (CPI‑U) rose 0.3% month‑over‑month in February, matching analysts' expectations. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, stayed above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, signaling persistent price pressures. The modest increase follows a series of tame readings,...
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported underlying price growth of 0.2% in February, a slight dip to 0.216% versus the whisper forecast. The figure aligned with most economists’ expectations, easing concerns about a resurgence of core inflation. Despite the...
Christina Romer’s new paper reviews historic episodes where fiscal and monetary policy moved in tandem, showing that coordination only helps when both tools aim at the right goal. The Great Depression, 1970s stagflation, Volcker’s anti‑inflation campaign, and the 1990s deficit‑reduction...
The Federal Reserve’s March 2026 policy meeting is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate steady, as inflation eases to 2.4% but still sits above the 2% target. Mortgage rates have settled around 6% following the Fed’s recent hold,...
Physicians are being warned that inflation can erode retirees' purchasing power more sharply than for working‑age patients, especially when fixed incomes meet rising healthcare costs. The article outlines how price spikes in prescription drugs, long‑term care, and everyday expenses disproportionately...
Existing home sales in the United States posted a modest 1.7% increase in February, marking the first uptick after a sharp decline the previous month. The rise caught many economists off‑guard, as most forecasts anticipated a continued slide. While the...
The piece contends that Trump‑era tariffs have slashed the U.S. trade deficit with China, delivering a 32% drop and pushing the deficit to its lowest level in 21 years. China’s share of U.S. imports fell from 13% to 7% within...
U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the board for the week ending March 6, 2026. The benchmark 30‑year rate rose 0.13 percentage points, while the 10‑year advanced 0.18 points to 4.15 %. The 3‑year note settled at 3.59 %, reflecting broader upward pressure on government debt yields....
On March 9 2009 the S&P 500 closed at a historic low of 676, marking the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis market decline. The National Bureau of Economic Research later confirmed the recession officially ended in June 2009, but did not announce this...
Gas prices hovering just above $3 per gallon have acted as a modest tailwind for U.S. consumers, but a rise to $4 per gallon would erase that benefit and return to a neutral stance relative to wages. The economy is...
Kevin Muir argues that claims of the business cycle’s demise are overstated, noting that cyclical patterns still shape macroeconomic outcomes. He points to a recent tipping point where labor market slack is eroding, causing unemployment to rise faster than expected....
Polymarket’s recession contract defines a U.S. recession as an NBER declaration for any quarter in 2025 or 2026, issued before the BEA releases its Q4 2026 advance estimate. Because the NBER typically confirms recessions with a lag, the contract’s definition lowers...
Friday’s 5‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven spread sits above the Federal Reserve’s 2 % inflation target, mirroring the Federal Reserve’s Dodd‑Katz‑Wright (DKW) expected inflation series. Both metrics suggest market participants price in CPI inflation well above 2 % for the medium term. Kalshi’s latest...
Mortgage rates remained relatively flat this week despite opposing forces in the bond market. A sharp surge in oil prices initially pushed rates higher by stoking inflation concerns, but a surprisingly weak jobs report later that day pulled yields down....
February’s employment report showed a net loss of 92,000 jobs, nudging the unemployment rate to 4.4% and pushing labor‑force participation down to 62%, its lowest level since late 2021. The decline was led by a 28,000‑job drop in healthcare, driven...
U.S. workers now need about 66 full workdays each year to cover rent, groceries and a used car, seven days more than in 2007. Although average hourly wages have risen 66% since the 2008 crisis, the cost of essential goods...
The latest BLS jobs report showed U.S. employment contracting by 92,000 jobs in February, with a further 69,000‑job downgrade for December and January, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Over the past 12 months, employers added just 156,000 jobs—far below...
February’s jobs report showed a net loss of 92,000 positions, with the private sector shedding 86,000 jobs and government payrolls down 6,000. The headline unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, while the broader U6 underemployment measure fell slightly to 7.9%....
