March JOLTS Report: Reverting to 2025 Averages

Key Takeaways

• Job openings fell 56,000 to 6.866 million, pandemic low.
• Hires jumped 655,000, highest in two years post‑pandemic.
• Quits rose 125,000, returning to 2025 average levels.
• Layoffs increased 153,000 to 1.867 million, sharp rebound.
• Quits rate rise suggests wage growth may soon stabilize.

Pulse Analysis

The latest JOLTS data provides a granular view of the U.S. labor market beyond the headline unemployment rate. While job openings edged lower to 6.866 million, the decline was modest compared with the post‑pandemic surge earlier in the year. More telling are the 655,000 additional hires, the strongest two‑year increase, and the 125,000 rise in quits, which together suggest that workers are gaining confidence to change jobs. These dynamics contrast sharply with the historically low initial jobless claims, reinforcing the view that the labor market remains resilient despite recent policy tightening.

Quits have long been a leading indicator of wage pressure because they reflect workers’ willingness to leave current positions for better pay. The March quits rate returning to its 2025 average hints that wage growth could level off, easing one of the Fed’s primary inflation concerns. However, wage growth is a lagging metric; it typically stays subdued after a recession until unemployment falls further, and it can remain elevated during expansions. The current alignment of higher quits with stable wage trajectories may give policymakers a clearer signal that inflationary pressures are receding, potentially influencing the timing of interest‑rate adjustments.

For businesses, the mixed picture of rising hires and layoffs calls for a nuanced hiring strategy. Companies should monitor sector‑specific vacancy trends, as the aggregate decline in openings may mask pockets of strong demand, especially in technology and healthcare. At the same time, the uptick in layoffs suggests that some firms are still adjusting to post‑pandemic demand shifts. Employers that can attract talent in a market where workers are more mobile will benefit from the prevailing quits momentum, while also preparing for possible wage negotiations as the labor market continues to tighten.