US Manufacturing Holds Up as Costs Gauge Hits Four-Year High
The Institute for Supply Management reported that its prices‑paid index jumped to 84.6 in April, a four‑year high, while the overall Manufacturing PMI steadied at 52.7, matching the strongest level since 2022. Input costs surged as the Iran‑Israel conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted oil, aluminum and helium supplies. Thirteen manufacturing sectors posted growth, led by textiles, nonmetallic minerals and primary metals, but the employment gauge slipped to a four‑month low, indicating continued workforce reductions.
April ISM Manufacturing: How Long Can the AI Manufacturing Boom Keep Exploding Prices From Creating a Consumer Implosion?
The Institute for Supply Management’s April manufacturing index held steady at 52.7, indicating modest expansion, while the new‑orders subindex climbed to 54.1, largely fueled by AI data‑center projects. However, the employment subindex slipped to 46.4, its lowest level in four...
How's The American Consumer Doing?
The latest GDP data shows business investment, driven largely by AI spending, outpacing consumer spending for the first time in decades, contributing 1.4 percentage points versus 1.1 points to Q1 growth. While overall consumer spending remains robust—still 70% of U.S....
Factory Price Index Continues Skyward On Energy Crisis
U.S. factory activity logged a fourth straight month of expansion, with the ISM manufacturing headline index rising to 52.7 despite missing consensus. At the same time, the ISM price gauge surged to 84.6, the highest level since the Ukraine war...
U.S. Jobless Claims Sink to 189,000, Lowest Since 1969
U.S. initial unemployment claims fell to 189,000 for the week ended April 25, the lowest level since 1969 and 26,000 below the previous week. The figure also beat the Bloomberg economists’ median forecast of 212,000. Continuing claims slipped to 1.79 million, a...
ISM Manufacturing Index for April 52,7 vs 53.0 Estimate
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for April slipped to 52.7, missing the 53.0 forecast, yet marking the 18th straight month the index stayed above the 50‑point growth threshold. Prices paid surged to 84.6, a 6.3% month‑over‑month jump and the highest level...
Dallas Fed Warns Inflation May Stay Above Target Longer
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan explains her dissent, which objected to suggesting that the next rate move is more likely than not to be a cut: "I am increasingly concerned about how long it will take inflation to return all the...
Record‑High 64% Expect Rising Unemployment Next Year
In April, 64% of US consumers expected unemployment to be higher over the next 12 months, near the highest reading on record.
AI Fuels Growth as Middle‑Class Struggles Intensify in U.S. Economy
U.S. GDP grew 2% annualized in Q1 and business equipment outlays jumped 10.4%, underscoring AI’s role in boosting productivity. At the same time, the savings rate fell to its lowest level since 2022 and consumer sentiment hit a record low,...
Treasury Yields Rise as Valero Issues $850M 10‑Year Notes and Adamas Launches $90M Senior Bonds
Valero Energy Corp sold $850 million of 10‑year notes at a 5.15% coupon and Adamas Trust issued $90 million of senior unsecured notes due 2031 as Treasury yields rose. The issuances came as Tradeweb reported over‑50% market share in institutional U.S. Treasuries...
What Will the U.S. Choose: Recession or Printing More Money?
The United States faces a fiscal dilemma: a recession would cut tax collections, widen the federal deficit, and pressure the Treasury bond market, while the alternative is to inject more liquidity through money printing. With debt already exceeding $31 trillion and...
War‑driven Inflation Could Force More Rate Hikes, Dissenters Warn
In explaining their dissents this week, Kashkari and Hammack cite resurgent inflation risks stemming from the Iran War. Kashkari (below) says a "series" of hikes might be needed if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, "even at the risk of...
Kashkari Urges Fed to Keep Policy Flexible Amid Iran War
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: "Why I dissented" He says the policy statement should signal the next rate move could be a cut or a hike given the broader range of outcomes from the Iran war. He lays out two modalities: a...
Inflation Surges, Gas Prices Spike as Trump’s War Batters U.S. Economy
U.S. consumer inflation jumped to 3.5% in March, driven largely by a 21% surge in gasoline prices amid the Iran‑Russia conflict. Pump prices now average $4.30 per gallon, with diesel climbing to $5.50, pressuring household budgets. The Federal Reserve signaled...
Robust 2026-2027 Earnings Growth Is a Live Probability
Wall Street projects robust earnings growth for the S&P 500, with consensus forecasts of 21.8% for calendar 2026 and 14.8% for 2027. Historical data shows that earnings spikes of 40%‑plus have followed past Fed rate‑cut cycles, suggesting the outlook is plausible. The...
Households Shift to Short-Term Bonds After 2024 Rate Cuts
"Since the Fed started cutting interest rates in 2024, households have been buying the front end of the yield curve and selling the long end" -Apollo Slok
‘Cut up the Credit Cards:’ Congress Is Getting Brutal About ‘Embarrassing’ $31 Trillion National Debt
U.S. public debt hit $31.27 trillion as of March 31, edging past the nation’s $31.22 trillion GDP and pushing the debt‑to‑GDP ratio to 100.2%. The milestone triggers annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, intensifying concerns from the Fed, Wall Street and lawmakers. Prominent voices—from...
FTSE 100 Slides 0.6% as UK Banks and Miners Lose Ground Amid Middle East Tensions
The FTSE 100 fell to 10,293.03, down 59.89 points (0.59%), as UK banking and mining shares retreated amid heightened Middle East conflict concerns and a hawkish Federal Reserve tone. The slide underscores growing risk aversion toward financials and commodities in...
Powell’s Reactive Rate Moves Fueled Inflation, Hurt Jobs
I disagree with @mark_dow on his conclusion, even as I share his frustration with many critics. Powell was a terrible Fed Chair, but he was not responsible for the Covid inflation. He was responsible for an entirely REACTIVE Fed policy that...
ISM Manufacturing Prices Surge to 2022 High
The ISM manufacturing prices sub-index is truly wild rn. From ISM's Chair: "In the last three months, the Prices Index has increased 25.6 percentage points to reach its highest level since April 2022 (84.6 percent)." The sector's shrugging it off...
Title Update Review Page>
The U.S. economy expanded at a 2% annualized rate in Q1 2026, rebounding from a weak finish to 2025. Growth was supported by consumer spending, manufacturing recovery, and services gains. Meanwhile, inflation is rising as oil prices spike due to Middle...
FOMC Dissent Procedural; Wait for June SEP to Revise Statement
In the weekly commentary that drops tomorrow, I suggest the 3 FOMC dissents over the statement was more procedural than substantive. When is the best time to change the statement--the majority was including to wait for the June iteration of...
Crude Surge Delays Rate Hike Odds Until Mid‑2027
It will take some time before we'll know if there will be second round inflation effects due to the surge in crude prices. Why hike odds aren't higher for '26 but with some delay in mid '27
U.S. Treasury Lifts Series I Bond Rate to 4.26% Through Oct. 2026
The U.S. Treasury announced a 4.26% annual composite rate for newly purchased Series I savings bonds, effective May 1 through Oct. 31 2026. The increase, driven by a 3.34% variable inflation component and a steady 0.90% fixed portion, revives interest in the government‑backed,...
Northeast Wage Growth up 3.3%, but Low‑mid
BofAI: In March, wage growth was up 3.3% YoY in the Northeast The “K” within wage growth was strongest in the South, but in the Northeast, both lower- and middle-income households’ wage growth turned negative https://t.co/r5KRTSAaWl
Post‑COVID US Consumer Spending Surge: Will It Last?
Since COVID, the US has been riding a sustained surge in consumer spending. Will it continue? Today's Chartbook Top Links just dropped, check it out: https://t.co/6zzy84M54y
U.S. Q1 2026 GDP Up 2% as Shutdown Ends, Iran Conflict Raises Risk
The U.S. economy expanded 2% in the January‑March 2026 quarter, rebounding from a recent federal shutdown. Analysts note that the same data release highlighted heightened geopolitical risk from the ongoing Iran conflict, a factor that could temper investor enthusiasm for...
US Nominal GDP Set to Jump 75% by 2027
BofA Hartnett: US nominal GDP in the midst of an unprecedented 75% surge from 2020 to 2027 https://t.co/S8KY87lUlL
Becoming
I might even be a little more hawkish than this Hammack statement, where I’m no longer as sure about the downside risks to growth and employment: https://t.co/uk3gVJjAZQ
Where Does the K-Shaped Economy Stand in 2026?
The K‑shaped economy, first spotlighted in 2020, remains the dominant narrative in 2026 as wage growth splits between high‑ and low‑income households. CFOs report a bifurcated consumer: the top 20% enjoy accelerating earnings while the bottom 80% tread water, with...
ISM PMI Expected to Edge Higher, Markets Quiet
📊 Pre-Market Brief | Fri, May 1 ─────── 📅 MACRO DATA ISM Manufacturing PMI: Est 53.1 | Prior 52.7 ─────── 💰 MAG 7 EARNINGS None this week 🏛️ FED No Fed speakers today ─────── 🎬 Trade it live 9am NY: https://t.co/66dSROeuCi
Income Growth Stalls, Unemployment Rate Stays Low
BofA: The slowdown in income growth is notable, but it hasn’t coincided with a meaningful rise in the U-rate During recessions, the U-rate rises and real income declines https://t.co/47HVfOmyFP
U.S. 10‑Year Treasury Yield Jumps 6.4 Bps to 4.418%, One‑Month High
The benchmark U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield surged 6.4 basis points to 4.418%, its highest closing level in a month, after bond prices fell early Thursday. The move underscores how quickly Treasury markets react to shifting policy and macro data, with...
Card Spending Growth Remains Strong Despite Iran War Shock
BofA: Total card ex gas spending growth continues to run at healthy levels despite the shock from the Iran war https://t.co/EZSBhhElrt
Yellen Pushes Massive Fiscal Spending Despite Recent Money Surge
Yellen (USTreasury then) said it’s “time to go big” fiscal — and of course gets a complete free pass from financial media, why? *Over 40% of all dollars ever created were done so in 2020-2021. cc @NickTimiraos
Trump Gives the Go-Ahead for a Major New Canada-U.S. Oil Pipeline
President Donald Trump approved the Bridger Pipeline Expansion, a 650‑mile, 3‑foot‑wide line that would transport up to 550,000 barrels of Canadian crude daily through Montana and Wyoming. The project, dubbed “Keystone Light,” avoids Native American reservations and relies on existing...
Q1 Economy Shows Healthy Underlying Momentum, BofA Reports
BofA: Underlying momentum in the economy remained healthy in 1Q Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers (saar, % ch annualized) https://t.co/wG9LR2zOvP
Jobless Claims Hit 1969 Low, Labor Market Still Strong
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 30, 2026) Initial jobless claims just hit their lowest level since 1969. Layoffs remain remarkably subdued, and continuing claims are falling too. How long can the labor market hold at these historic lows? https://t.co/YFVWuC2kFi
The Economy Is Growing – but Soaring Energy Prices Could Put a Damper on That
U.S. GDP showed a 2% annualized gain in Q1, buoyed by big‑tech AI spending and data‑center construction. At the same time, soaring gasoline prices—now $4.30 a gallon after the Iran conflict—are eroding household budgets. Consumer spending grew in March, but...
Spending Rises Despite Flat Real Disposable Income
The economy is growing while real disposable income has been flat for a year. Consumer spending keeps rising anyway. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6amEjlu5DD
Powell Earns C+ for Mishandling Transitory Inflation
My final grade for Jerome Powell: C+ He was generally a fine Fed Chairman. But the "transitory" thing has to ding his grade substantially. Yes, easy to say in hindsight, but the Fed failed to be sufficiently countercyclical during the largest...
U.S. Economy Grew 2 Percent in Early 2026 Even as War in Iran Began to Hit Energy Prices
U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 2% annualized pace in Q1 2026, marking continued resilience despite a sharp oil price surge tied to the Iran‑Houthi conflict. The Commerce Department’s inflation‑adjusted data showed private investment, consumer spending and government outlays all...
Global Rate Divergence Poised to Push Dollar Lower
We are in a new era of global central bank policy divergence. The rest of the world appears to have significantly more room to tighten financial conditions than the US. That divergence is likely to act as a major driver of further...
Tech Manufacturing Surges, Leaving Other Sectors Behind
The "K-shaped" economy has been most evident in US manufacturing, and this is feeding directly through to profit trends in the US equity market. Industrial production, a measure of manufacturing output, shows clearly the degree to which tech single-handedly grew...
Conference Board LEI Drops 0.6% in March, Flagging Slower US Growth
The Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.6% in March to 97.3, erasing the 0.3% gain recorded in February. The decline, driven by weaker building permits, consumer expectations and stock prices, led the Board to lower...
Core Services Inflation Surges to 3.7%, Beyond Energy
Inflation in the Entire US economy Is Rocking and Rolling, and It’s Not Just Energy. The 6-month core services PCE inflation index, accelerating since August, hit 3.7% annualized. Chip prices and software wreak havoc amid consumer electronics https://t.co/tJlBtm0nLC https://t.co/BYiIsiCep8
Politicized Monetary Policy Costs Jobs, Prices, Stability
For families and firms, this isn’t academic. If the people steering monetary policy are chosen for cable-news combat rather than analytic clarity, the cost shows up in jobs, prices, and uncertainty. https://t.co/ofgo8OR3dX
The Metric Taking Over Earning Season
In this episode, Morgan Stanley’s Global Head of Fixed Income Research, Andrew Sheets, explains why capital expenditure on AI infrastructure is becoming the dominant metric in earnings season, eclipsing traditional earnings focus. He highlights that U.S. hyperscalers like Alphabet, Amazon,...
Economy Rebounds to 2% Growth in Q1, Spurred by AI Spending
U.S. economic growth rebounded in Q1 2026, expanding at a 2% annualized rate as record AI investment lifted business spending. Equipment and structures outlays surged 10.4%, the strongest pace since Q2 2023, while consumer spending rose 1.6% despite a 44%...
Fitch: U.S. Debt Levels Exceed Peer AA Nations
"Fitch Warns US Debt Burden Is ‘Far Above’ Other AA Rated Nations" None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/bA3E6txTHG https://t.co/jfpiadGKWT