Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
The Federal Reserve is confronting a new supply‑side shock that threatens to revive inflationary pressures as geopolitical tensions persist. Central banks are diverging, with Australia likely to raise rates again while Europe and the UK pause policy tightening. This split in monetary stance could strain global liquidity and heighten market volatility. Political rhetoric adds further uncertainty to the economic outlook.
Median family income in the US increased from $10,000 in 1971 to $106,000 today, only a 10x increase. However, the median cost of homes increased from $25,000 to $445,000, a 17x increase. And the median cost of cars increased from $3,600 to...
FWIW while many are suggesting Fed Rate Hikes and markets are beginning to price that as well. We much prefer 1. Ending RMO 2. Addressing the uneven distribution of reserves by establishing a minimum reserve requirement to protect the high...
Senators Cory Booker and Chris Van Hollen introduced separate bills that would essentially erase federal income tax for households earning under $75,000, expanding the tax‑free income shield to as much as $92,000 for married couples. Van Hollen’s Working Americans’ Tax...
The supply shock move in Energy prices, fertilizer prices, and food prices IS a Rate hike which slows the economy and is disinflationary to goods and services that are not energy and food. A dual mandate central bank doesn't hike...
January 2025: "Don't worry about the $2 trillion deficit and the rising national debt. We are going to grow our way out of it with 5% Real GDP." Today: "Wait till next year." https://t.co/D1ZtfYxn0r
Despite the Iran‑Iran war threatening oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and pushing crude prices above $103 a barrel, the United States economy continues to show resilience. Recent data show unemployment at 4.4% and Q1 2025 GDP growth projected...
The most absurd number in CPI? According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 20% over the last 5 years... https://t.co/Iw2M0izZim
Goldman just raised US recession probability to 25%. Oxford Economics says $140 oil triggers recession in the eurozone, UK, and Japan. Brent is at $100 and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. https://t.co/7yjIA43hkG
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q4 2025 shows a modest slowdown, trailing the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) projection. Goldman Sachs, assuming a 21‑day Strait of Hormuz disruption, trims its growth estimate from 2.5 % to 2.2 % year‑over‑year. The SPF survey, collected...
I’m convinced that a lot of people’s views on inflation right now are driven by whether they live in the Sun Belt (experiencing housing deflation/disinflation) or NY/SF.
As recession fears mount, remember that stocks bottom ~5 months before GDP inflects. JPMAM https://t.co/R8swcw5iFp
The Trump administration is launching a series of Section 301 investigations and new duties to recoup roughly $1.6 trillion in tariff revenue lost after a Supreme Court ruling. The probes will examine 16 economies for excess factory capacity and dozens more for...
My week ahead article: It Would Probably Be a Bad Sign if the Fed Cut Now – Here’s Why https://t.co/iRgDsoYaOg https://t.co/HWPl79e8Ez
The WSJ reports: "The U.S. economy is less exposed to oil shocks today than in prior decades." But, today’s economy shows strain in airlines, farms, autos. Airlines face soaring fuel costs. Farmers face higher fertilizer prices. Rising gas prices threaten US autos. https://t.co/bOpYCs0pCD
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The Federal Reserve sets the U.S. federal funds rate, an overnight benchmark that shapes domestic liquidity, inflation, and employment. LIBOR, by contrast, is a London‑based multi‑currency benchmark derived from bank submissions and has long guided global short‑term lending. While both...
BLS always tries to publicize these changes well in advance. I don't follow BEA as closely, but I assumed they did the same.
Treasury Yields Jump, 10-Year to 4.28%, 30-Year to 4.90%, Mortgage Rates Spike to 6.41%, on Inflation & Deficit Fears. US Government sold $651 billion of Treasury securities this week into these rising yields https://t.co/PBjZjAGHme https://t.co/VXWtZ8bNKw
Betting markets have lifted the implied probability of a U.S. recession in 2026 following the onset of Gulf War III, signaling heightened concern over an oil‑price shock. Although the implied recession odds have eased slightly since their peak, they remain well...
Don't stare at spot noisy reported economic data. Answer these questions at a high level. Directionally not precisely. Is the U.S. labor market healthy and labor is in demand Is the population growing Is the 6 month to a...
The Fed won a sweeping court victory Friday. But the fact that it needed one tells you everything about how much has changed. The unsealed filings are something else—the Fed catalogued 100 Trump attacks on Powell and told a court...
The latest business‑cycle data show Q4 GDP growth slashed by roughly half compared with the prior estimate, while consumer spending missed consensus by almost 0.5 percentage point on an annualized basis. Revised non‑farm payroll figures indicate a modest downward bias...
The biggest issue the US is dealing with right now isn’t Iran — it’s the cost of its own debt. Plain and simple: The government can’t afford a war at this stage, and higher interest rates are becoming an existential threat. https://t.co/mHVMQJMS82 https://t.co/yW1dmgDC7i
Further proof we have an inflation problem, even before Iran. Core PCE services (ex-housing) shows more and more broadening out of higher prices. Proportion of 105 categories with 3%+ y/y inflation Dec '19: 26% Jun '22: 69% Jan '25: 53% Jan '26: 59% https://t.co/nA65sTTb6A
In the debut episode of Gundlach Unlocked, DoubleLine founder Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target and that long‑term rates have stalled despite recent cuts. He also sees the U.S. dollar entering a...
Today felt like a textbook risk-off session. Weak GDP revision. VIX back above 20. Short-term breadth rolling over. Dollar up. Rates pushing toward 4.3%. Oil surging. In CHART THIS I walk through what’s actually changing — and what isn’t. Six viewer questions. Clear levels. No drama. Watch...
"Inflation isn't a problem at all." Ten Year Treasury Yield: "Hold my beer." 🍺 One of the biggest shifts from February to March? $TNX bounced of support at 4.0% as rates move higher as prices appear to be 📈. https://t.co/Y10UC0y7lL
In this episode of Motley Fool Money, hosts Travis Hoyam, Jason Moser, and Lou Whiteman dissect the risk of stagflation in 2026, highlighting the recent dip in Q4 GDP growth to 0.7% and persistent inflation above 3%. They explore how...
GS: A hawkish rate move has coincided with a decline in the market's pricing of economic growth https://t.co/JO5RIgmjDP
Video of what I'm watching for next week: A Contentious Fed Decision Will Add to Market's Iran Concerns https://t.co/Ikll4zvVyq
Economists warn that a sustained $200 per barrel WTI price would trigger a systemic shock to the U.S. economy. At that level, gasoline could top $7 per gallon, eroding over $400 billion in discretionary consumer spending and deepening energy poverty. The...
My take on the difficultly navigating the splintering within Fed leadership amidst tension of inflation and the labor market.
The number Wall Street was dreading arrived today. Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.7% — literally half the initial reading — while core PCE inflation climbed to 3.1%, its highest since early 2024. The S&P 500 responded by hitting...
U.S. job openings rose to 6.95 million in January, surpassing economists' expectations. Layoffs edged lower while quits slipped modestly, indicating tepid worker confidence. Despite the higher posting count, hiring remains weak, with the market described as a hiring recession. The broader...
The PCE-based ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 3.2% in January. This is the median of 24 numbers: 8 concepts measured over 3, 6 and 12 months.
January job openings increased by 396,000 to 6.9 million, lifting the openings rate to 4.2% after a five‑year low in December. Hires held steady at 5.3 million, while total separations fell, with quits down 88,000 and layoffs decreasing by 35,000 to the...
The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) – the “gold standard” of jobs data – shows U.S. employers added only 123,000 jobs in the 12 months through September 2025, far below the 636,000 reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics...
U.S. Treasury markets experienced a sharp front‑end rally this week, with two‑year yields climbing roughly 20 basis points while ten‑year yields added about 12 basis points. The differential move produced a bear‑flattened curve, indicating heightened short‑term rate pressure. Market participants...
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that construction job openings were essentially flat in January, with 231,000 vacancies, matching the level a year earlier. Overall U.S. job openings rose to 6.20 million, up from December but down from a year ago....
The ongoing Middle East conflict is driving oil prices up, reviving concerns about a U.S. recession. Economists note that higher energy costs could reignite inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to balance rate cuts against potential hikes. Multiple geopolitical flashpoints—from Iran...
Here’s the Financial Times on today's revised data on US fourth-quarter GDP. Similar to the consumer spending figures also released today (please see previous post), Q4 GDP growth now suggests a less dynamic American economy in the run-up to the...
The Commerce Department revised fourth‑quarter 2023 GDP growth to a modest 0.7% annualized, far below the initial 1.4% estimate and the 3.8%‑4.4% pace of the prior two quarters. The downgrade reflects a 16.7% plunge in federal government spending after the...
The BEA’s decision to change legal services source data in the PCE from CPI (around 11.3% in Jan) to PPI (1.8% in Jan) cut the core PCE MoM chg by 8bps (would have been 0.44% vs 0.36%). Could defend...
The *number* outside the labor force will organically rise as the population ages. It says *zero* about labor market health. A better measure is the participation *rate* of prime-age individuals, which excludes those likeliest to be retired or students. It's near...
Hikes? Get the 🍿 ready when the usually hawkish new Fed Chairman turns hawkish later this year.
BEA also released its revised GDP data for Q4, including the Price Index Gross Domestic Purchases, broadest inflation index for domestic inflation, which excludes import prices. It was revised up today to 3.8% for Q4, worst since Q4 2022 https://t.co/ATVMhOch9V...
Core PCE Inflation Hits 3.1%, Worst in 2 Years, in Unique Twist Blows way past CPI Inflation. Driven by Core Services. Energy spike is still to come. The Fed needs to pay attention https://t.co/ATVMhOch9V https://t.co/fBae4ie2QQ
“I am not on recession watch, but I am concerned.” My new post shares excerpts from three recent interviews on risks facing the U.S. economy. https://t.co/poGM4kmiYY
For a $600,000 home, a borrower will now have to pay $130 more per month than what they would have paid the day before the war started when rates were 5.99%
BESSENT: A LONG WAY FROM FED GOING BACK TO QE Talk about blatant BS- the Fed is doing QE
