The End of the Yellen-Era Debt Playbook?
U.S. Treasury is moving away from Janet Yellen's short‑term bill‑heavy issuance strategy as new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent prepares to confront a $10 trillion debt wall in 2026. Bessent’s “3‑3‑3” plan targets 3 % GDP growth, a 3 %‑of‑GDP deficit by 2028, and extra oil production, while the GENIUS Act could create up to $1 trillion of new demand for Treasury bills from stablecoin issuers. The shift is pushing yields higher, with 2‑year Treasury rates near 4 % and long‑term borrowing costs expected to rise. Corporate treasurers must now prioritize long‑term financing to mitigate rollover risk.
US Gas Prices Break $4.5 per Gallon Mark
For the first time since 2022, US gasoline average retail price tops $4.5 per gallon.
Tariffs Yield Minimal Deficit Gains, Need Systemic Policy
WSJ: "The figures measure the limited progress made toward the Trump administration’s goal of reducing the deficit in the 12 months after President Trump rolled out steep global tariffs in April 2025." Not much surprise here. Trade policies only work if...
Senate Panel Confirms Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair Amid Soaring Gas Prices
The Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee voted 13-11 along party lines to move Kevin Warsh’s nomination to the full Senate, clearing the path for President Trump’s pick to become Federal Reserve Chair. The vote occurs as Americans grapple...
Looser Firing Rules Boost Productivity, Wages, Modestly Affect Unemployment
"Labor Market Fluidity and Aggregate Productivity" https://t.co/KoT8flEFKs "easing dismissal restrictions... raises labor productivity, output, and wages, while the unemployment rate responds only modestly" https://t.co/jfr8AjboI2
Falling Home Prices Spur Sales Amid Southern Inventory Surge
New Single-Family Home Prices Drop Further amid Inventory Glut. But Lower Prices Beget Higher Sales. Inventory in the South still sky-high, up 60% from March 2019. But homebuilders understand what it takes: lower prices and big incentives https://t.co/fiwKwIBlMq https://t.co/6wTyZGUENq
U.S. Trade Deficit Swells to $60.3 B in March as Imports Outpace Exports
The U.S. trade deficit expanded to $60.3 billion in March, a 4.4% month‑over‑month increase as imports rose faster than exports. The widening gap signals robust consumer and business demand while putting pressure on the dollar and fiscal outlook.
Stagflation Signals Policymakers May Look Through Inflation
Today’s ISM report was yet another very stagflationary report. Prices paid spiked to 3-year highs, while employment fell to 2-year lows. How will policymakers respond if this persists? They will ease into weakness and look through inflation. https://t.co/jC5yXTTjzf https://t.co/ObkzsVTJFG
The Great Rotation Is Here — And FMKT Is Built for It
The 10‑year/2‑year Treasury yield spread turned positive at +0.50% in April 2026, ending the deepest inversion since the 1980s. ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 in March, confirming a return to expansion, while the S&P 500 slipped over 5% in...
The Closer – Breadth Disconnect, AI Earnings, Prices Rising – 5/5/26
The S&P 500 closed in overbought territory on Monday while its 10‑day advance‑decline line was oversold, a breadth disconnect that has occurred only 33 times since 1990. For the first time since July 2022, more than half of ISM Services PMI respondents...
Traders Ramp Up Bets Warsh’s Fed Could Hike Rates Before Cutting
Bond traders are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will raise rates before any cuts, with swaps now pricing a greater than 50% chance of a hike by next April. The shift reflects growing hedging activity in SOFR futures and...
Goldman Sachs Says AI Is Already Adding to US Consumer Inflation
Goldman Sachs warned that artificial intelligence is currently inflating US consumer prices, citing rising memory‑chip costs, higher software fees and surging electricity bills from data centers. The bank says the near‑term price pressure could offset expected long‑term disinflation from AI...
These Are the Fastest-Growing Jobs for New College Graduates — Even in Th...
New college graduates face a tough post‑inflation job market, with the unemployment rate for 22‑27‑year‑olds rising to 5.6% in Q1 2026—well above the 4.2% overall rate. AI adoption and higher interest rates have slowed entry‑level hiring, cutting the seasonally adjusted hiring...
Fed's Barr Says Gas Prices Could 'Bleed' Into Inflation
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned that the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict could push gasoline and fertilizer prices higher, potentially feeding broader inflation. He noted that U.S. natural‑gas markets are relatively insulated because they are not fully integrated into global markets,...
Professional and Business Services Sector Led on Hirings, Firings in March
Job openings slipped to 6.9 million in March, while hires jumped to 5.6 million, a gain of 655,000 from February. The professional and business services sector recorded the steepest drop in openings (down 318,000) and the largest layoffs (527,000), yet it led...
Rebound in Hiring, Steady Job Openings Highlight Firming Labor Market
Hiring accelerated in March, with 655,000 more hires bringing total hires to 5.6 million and the hiring rate up to 3.5%. Job openings held steady at 6.9 million, roughly 3% below last year’s average. Meanwhile, layoffs rose by 153,000 and the quit...
One American Loses Their Job for Every 6 Immigrants Removed From the Workforce as Researchers See ‘No Evidence’ that ICE...
A new NBER study finds that heightened ICE activity under the Trump administration has removed roughly 1.2 million foreign‑born workers, triggering a cascade of job losses among native‑born males. In areas with a surge in ICE arrests, six undocumented men left...
Report Finds Billions in Connecticut Tax Revenue Goes Uncollected Each Year
A Pew Charitable Trusts report finds Connecticut’s tax gap at about $3 billion in 2022, enough to cover nearly all of the state’s Medicaid share. Only eight states have quantified their gaps, and Connecticut’s estimate comes from a 2023 law‑mandated Department...
New Home Sales Rise, Supported by Limited Existing Inventory
New single‑family home sales rose 7.4% month‑over‑month in March, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 682,000 units and a 3.3% year‑over‑year gain. Inventory slipped to 481,000 homes, putting the months’ supply at 8.5 months—down from 9.2 a year ago...
QRA's Pause Fuels Asset Rallies, Inflates Debt
The last time the QRA mattered we pivoted from short to long when Janet decided to stop increasing coupon issuance. Every QRA since has left issuance unchanged. Tomorrow will be no different. It's suppressed bond yields from going...
Senators Murray and Wyden Unveil $675 Billion Trust Tax Bill Targeting Billionaire Loopholes
Senators Patty Murray and Ron Wyden introduced the Fair Trusts for Fiscal Responsibility Act, a bill that would levy a graduated tax on trusts holding $50 million or more and could generate $675 billion in revenue over a decade. The legislation threatens...
U.S. Q1 2026 GDP Grows 2% Annualized on Investment and Government Spending
Real GDP expanded at a 2.0% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2026, outpacing the 0.5% growth recorded in Q4 2025. The boost came primarily from a 10.4% jump in non‑residential investment and a 4.4% rebound in federal spending,...
March 2026 JOLTS Report: Stable, Depending on What You Do
The March 2026 JOLTS report shows job openings steady at 6.9 million, while the hires rate rose to 3.5% and quits edged up to 2%. Layoffs ticked higher to 1.2%, driven largely by a surge in the tech sector where the layoff...
US Trade Gap Widens in March as AI Spending Boosts Imports
U.S. trade data for March showed the deficit expanding 4.4% to $60.3 billion, slightly above expectations. Imports increased 2.3% to $381.2 billion, with AI hardware, computers and autos driving the rise, while exports grew 2.0% to $320.9 billion, led by crude oil and...
Indian Rupee Hits Record Low 95.33 as Oil Prices Surge Amid US‑Iran Stalemate
The Indian rupee slid to a historic low of 95.33 per dollar on Thursday, driven by soaring oil prices and hawkish Fed signals as the U.S.-Iran stalemate drags on. The drop also pushed Indian government bond yields higher, echoing stress...
March JOLTS Report: Reverting to 2025 Averages
The March JOLTS report shows job openings slipping to 6.866 million, the lowest level since the pandemic aside from December. Hires surged by 655,000, marking the strongest two‑year reading, while quits rose 125,000, bringing the quits rate back to its 2025...
April Services PMI Signals Steady Expansion Despite Cost Pressures and Weaker Demand
The Institute for Supply Management reported an April Services PMI of 53.6, marking the 22nd straight month of expansion but a 0.4‑point dip from March. The reading stays 1.1 points above the 12‑month average, indicating continued growth despite a slower...
US Hiring Soars Most In 25 Years. Allegedly.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest JOLTS report showed hires climbing to 5.554 million in March, the strongest monthly increase since 2020 when COVID‑related rebounds are excluded. Total job openings slipped to a year‑to‑date low of 6.866 million, but the hiring rate...
New‑home Sales Surge as Prices Hit 2021 Low
New home sales beat expectations, jumping to a 682,000 annualized pace in March. A new home at the right price is finding a buyer. Median new home prices fell to their lowest since 2021—below existing home prices—helping support sales as...
New-Home Sales Pace Picks Up, Price Plummets in March
New‑home sales rebounded in March 2026, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 682,000 units, a 3.3% year‑over‑year increase. The median price of a newly built home fell 6.2% to $387,400, the lowest level recorded since 2021 and more than...
The Federal Safety Net Isn’t Ready for Artificial Intelligence
The article warns that the U.S. unemployment insurance system, limited to 26 weeks of benefits, is ill‑suited for potential AI‑driven job displacement. Existing job‑retraining programs are outdated or have lapsed, and recent Republican legislation has tightened eligibility for food and...
New Home Sales Rise; Median Prices Slip 16%
New Home Sales Increase to 682,000 Annual Rate in March Median New Home Price is Down 16% from the Peak due to Change in Mix https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-sales-increase-to-682000
US Debt To GDP Ratio At 1.22 (Nothing Has Been The Same Since 2020 Covid Outbreak)
The United States’ federal debt now stands at $39.204 trillion against a $32.090 trillion GDP, yielding a debt‑to‑GDP ratio of 1.22—the highest level since the post‑COVID era began. Historically, ratios above 1.0 were viewed as unsustainable, yet each recession since the 1960s...
Rising Bond Yields And Rate-Hike Pricing: Macro Man Podcast
Bloomberg’s Macro Man podcast, hosted by Cameron Crise, examines the recent surge in long‑term Treasury yields and the upward shift in short‑term interest‑rate (STIR) market pricing. The episode argues that the yield rally strengthens the case for additional Federal Reserve...
Rising Oil and Rates Signal Impending Housing Collapse
Oil, rates, and housing – here's what I see coming: • Oil to $120-150 by fall • 10-year yield at 4.43% and climbing • Housing market about to get crushed • Higher fuel = recessionary You're spending the same but getting less." oil #economy #recession #housing...
Fed Rate Cut Near S&P Peak Predicts Future Decline
In December, the Fed cut rates within 2% of an all-time high for the S&P 500. We shared this table back then and noted that stocks had never been lower a year later. https://t.co/ujCQTFGTz6
Watch: How Two-Way Risks Are Dividing the Fed’s Policy Outlook
The Federal Reserve remains split over its future rate path as it grapples with two‑way risks: stubborn inflation and the potential for an energy price shock. While wage growth and overall economic activity are slowing, price pressures stay above target,...
Rising Gas Prices Spark Imminent Food Inflation Wave
This is a concerning chart but grounded in reality. The surge in gasoline prices is likely leading commodity grains. The next wave of food inflation is already here. https://t.co/jC5yXTTjzf https://t.co/ZOCR2jO7nt
2026 US Goods Trade Balance Mirrors 2024, Not 2025
New data from the Census today show that, adjusted for inflation, the 2026 US goods trade balance is essentially unchanged vs the same period in 2024. (2025 is wildly distorted bc of an import surge due to tariff front-running.) https://t.co/f779W6FJZL https://t.co/eTPHLFMM9T
Highway Spending Boomed. Highway Building Didn't.
Highway and street construction spending rose nominally after the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, but after adjusting for the 73% increase in construction costs, real spending fell 7.5%. Labor wages climbed about 32% and asphalt prices jumped over 40%, pushing...
Service Sector Holds, Inflation High, Jobs Still Negative
All things considered, the ISM service sector activity report was a 'fairly good' outcome. Headline sector activity only edged lower. Inflation pressures leveled out - at high levels however. Employment component bounces but still net negative: https://t.co/RbXrCgQUjB
Tariffs Yield Minimal Deficit Reduction After One Year
"The figures measure the limited progress made toward the Trump administration’s goal of reducing the deficit in the 12 months after President Trump rolled out steep global tariffs in April 2025." 😯
John C Williams: There Is No Try
John C. Williams told the Cynosure Group that the Federal Reserve is holding the federal‑funds target range at 3.5%‑3.75% as it navigates a mix of resilient growth and heightened uncertainty. Real GDP is expected to expand about 2%‑2.25% this year...
Blue Line Signals Urgent Need for Rate Cuts
Narrative status That blue dotted line needs rate cuts or coupon auction cuts SOON Following that purple line now 28 days. Dipping east south east https://t.co/mcOBDLMz1a
Accelerating Money Supply Drives Recent US Inflation Spike
My take on @soarfinancial on RISING US INFLATION: "US CPI jumped from 2.4% in Feb. to 3.3% in Mar. That DIDN'T SURPRISE ME because the money supply has been ACCELERATING for the last 18 months. When that happens, with a lag,...
Potential Multi‑Rate Hikes Create UST & SOFR Opportunities
Should the Fed in the next 12 months decide that it needs to hike rates, high odds it will need to hike more than once and more than 25 bps. UST and SOFR curves offering interesting opportunities
U.S. Job Openings Stable at 7 Million, Vacancy Ratio Near 1
U.S. job openings have been stable, and the three-month moving average stood at 7 million in March There were 0.94 job vacancies for every worked counted as unemployed in March, in line with the recent trend. https://t.co/03wCHzdWaT
Morning Economic Data Shows Low Price Payments
Few takeaways from morning eco data incl #ism and #jolts. Really not much to report save for prices paid on the low side. https://t.co/uaSn4LbnDk
Markets Hold Steady Amid Geopolitical Turmoil Ahead of ISM
Markets are taking geopolitical chaos in stride. ✅ NASDAQ at record highs ✅ Oil down 3.5% ✅ Gold up ✅ USD lower vs majors (except JPY) ✅ RBA hikes, signals pause All eyes on the 10am ISM print - the real tell...
Forecasters Missed Both 1990s Productivity Surge and 2000s Slowdown
GS: Forecasters Were Slow to Anticipate Both the Productivity Acceleration of the Late 1990s and the Subsequent Slowdown That Began in the Mid-2000s https://t.co/qp0mIBZocJ