Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
The Federal Reserve’s March 18 FOMC statement kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent, pausing further hikes. The Committee noted solid economic expansion, modest job gains and a stable unemployment rate, while inflation remains somewhat elevated above the 2 percent goal. It warned of heightened uncertainty from Middle‑East developments and signaled readiness to adjust policy if risks emerge. All members voted for the decision except Governor Stephen Miran, who advocated a quarter‑point cut.
The Federal Reserve will announce a hold on its benchmark rate at the March 2026 meeting, while 10‑year Treasury yields slipped to 4.202% amid soaring oil prices and heightened Middle East tensions. Market participants cite a near‑certain pause, internal disagreements...
Stanford economists estimate that rising gasoline prices could cost the average U.S. household about $740 this year, roughly matching the projected $750 boost from the 2023 tax refund legislation. Their model assumes a brief Strait of Hormuz closure, with gasoline...
The Producer Price Index shows residential construction inputs rising 0.7% in February, pushing the year‑over‑year price index for new‑home inputs to 3.4%. Goods components, which make up roughly 60% of the index, climbed 1.1% month, the strongest gain since August...
When you see markets pricing in no chance of a cut in April, and less than a cut this entire year, and we are still talking about the possibility of three dissents against holding rates constant today, you realize how...
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its policy rate at the 3.50%‑3.75% range, marking a second consecutive pause after three 25‑basis‑point cuts in late 2025. Markets have already priced in the hold, so investors will focus on Chair Jerome...
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at a tenuous moment for the economy as the Iran war drags on. The conflict is expected to amplify internal divisions, injecting yet more uncertainty into the debate around when the Fed...
U.S. wholesale price growth accelerated sharply in March 2026, marking the third consecutive month of above‑trend increases according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Wholesale Price Index rose 0.7% month‑over‑month and 4.2% year‑over‑year, the fastest pace since 2022. The...
Producer Prices - How much oil data (days > $80) is in this PPI inflation data? PPI vs Brent Move -- Zero days above $80 in this Feb PPI print—WTI cruised the entire month between $61–$67 (avg ~$64.50, peak 67.31 on...
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – March 18, 2026 🚨 Big macro day ahead — inflation + Fed decision = expect volatility spikes and potential trend shifts. This is a trader’s day, not a passenger’s day ⚡️🧠 Macro Focus: 0830 - PPI (inflation...
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Pearson have signed a multi-year agreement to co‑develop AI‑driven learning and assessment solutions for enterprises. The announcement lifted TCS shares about 3% to ₹2,461.90, underscoring market optimism about the deal’s potential to close skill gaps...
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the March 2026 meeting. The decision follows a February jobs report that revealed a loss of roughly 100,000 positions and a sharp rise in oil...
US 30-Year Treasury Bond yields are testing key channel support levels—are we nearing an inflationary or deflationary recession? With the upcoming FED meeting and rising commodity prices, a breakdown here could dictate the market's next major move. Dive into the...
The FOMC is a mess. I have been writing about the original sin, the false flag of 2019, and a workable plan to kill inflation for 5 years. Here is Sundays client only DSR. I'm making it...
In early March 2026 the U.S. dollar surged back to the top of global currency rankings, strengthening against the euro, pound and yen as the Iran‑Israel conflict intensified. HSBC forex analysts and other market strategists highlighted the oil‑price surge and...
Hot Producer Price Inflation Adds to Fed’s Complex and Worsening Inflation Problem. Worst 6-month PPI inflation since August 2022 (+5.3% annualized). After multiple rate cuts by the Fed, inflation heats up everywhere: services, food, energy, other goods https://t.co/bCQedto2Yy https://t.co/l9dugS4fI2
Nearly all net job gains are in healthcare and education. Strip those out and the labor market is contracting. The headline number is a mirage. https://t.co/OY4R3G58U5
On March 17, 2026, Brent crude jumped to $103.42‑$103.50 per barrel and U.S. WTI rose above $95 as fresh Iranian strikes on a UAE gas field and the killing of Iran’s security chief heightened Middle‑East tensions. At the same time,...
FOMC rate decision incoming. Despite the President's interests, the rate decision itself is fully expected to end in no change. That puts the full interest on the updated forecasts of the SEP and any errant remarks Powell makes in his second to...
2-Year Treasury yield (blue line, market expectations of Fed policy) > Federal Funds Rate (red line, actual policy) suggests Fed is unlikely to cut. https://t.co/7odcQloUt0
On March 13, 2026, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee in Washington is expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged, despite rising inflation from the Iran war, oil prices above $100 per barrel, and a disappointing February jobs report...
Fed: "K-shaped economy, firms can't pass through price increases." Data: "Firms pass through price increases."
IDK if this is really much of a silver lining. On trend means that trade services are passing on costs at twice the pre-pandemic pace. That speaks to embedded inflation above target. https://t.co/IwClLNNndO
Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rate unchanged at the March 2024 meeting, with only modest tweaks to the post‑meeting statement. The bank says the Fed will downplay volatile payroll data and instead spotlight rising geopolitical...
Wholesale prices rose 0.7% in February, much more than expected and up 3.4% annually @CNBC Trump will lie to the American public and insist that there is no inflation. https://t.co/VQeUb8bRtI
Even though PPI in February printed high, the components that filter into PCE (including downward revisions for December) came in a bit lower than the sharp-pencils anticipated. February PCE is still expected to be firm, but a touch less so...
The latest balance‑of‑payments data shows that when the U.S. goods trade balance is adjusted for gold, the deficit expands beyond the headline figure. The red line in the chart, representing the gold‑adjusted balance, sits noticeably lower than the blue unadjusted...
Great quote that speaks to the Fed's challenging task of (1) looking through supply shocks while also (2) maintaining a robust nominal anchor. As folks like @IrvingSwisher and I have said for sometime, stabilizing the growth path of aggregate nominal...
Trump’s tariffs and the US-Israeli war on Iran are sending fertilizer and diesel costs through the roof. Diesel is up ~$1/gallon in a week. Urea fertilizer has jumped from $470/ton to up to $585. This jump in cost spells trouble for Trump and...
JUST IN: Stocks drop as Wholesale Inflation (PPI) comes in higher than expected (+0.7% MoM vs +0.3% forecast)
Worth noting just how much the Iran war has changed expectations about the Fed and the future path of monetary policy. https://t.co/NBYZx2Uuza
Expectations are building for a rate cut There’s a 37% probability the June FOMC will cut 25bps Powell has been the last line holding rates as President Trump publicly pushed to lower June is also the first Fed meeting where Powell is not...
February’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) was just released. Over the past year, the PPI REMAINS ELEVATED at 3.4%/yr. As the Fed pivots away from Quantitative Tightening to Quantitative Easing, it’s having trouble putting the INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/XFlfmOdN5q
US producer price inflation ex-food and energy came in at the fastest pace since January 2025 for the month of February, before the oil price shock. It's going to be very hard for this Fed to signal rate cuts ahead...
Inflation Just EXPLODED 🔥 Does the Fed Have a Crisis on its Hands? Stocks crashed. Gold collapsed. Dollar soared Fed meets TODAY - and this one number could change everything for 2026👇 Follow for updates $SPY $QQQ $DIA $GLD $DXY $USDJPY $ES...
Wars are inflationary - and rising oil, yields & dollar are the play. Not metals right now, as warned to clients. #Gold #Silver Wholesale inflation comes in hot for February with producer prices rising 3.4%, the biggest jump in a...
Rates moves from Jan FOMC to today are basically all in the front end https://t.co/z4SHlodCLM
Also, your monthly reminder that PPI doesn't measure what you think it measures, but it is a useful input into PCE.
The US economy is losing momentum. In January, consumer spending slowed sharply to a crawl of 1.56% annualized. TRUMP’S WAR ON IRAN PROMISES MORE ECONOMIC DAMAGE. https://t.co/sjumYo1FBt
FOMC day and "extended pause" hedging pressuring whites. 2026 cuts down to 23 bps. Of course, Fed has an opportunity reset all of this via FOMC statement, SEP, and presser. Should be a fun day https://t.co/pMoJFfaIiY
President Trump is demanding that the Fed immediately lower borrowing costs. But the war in the Middle East has now made any interest rate cuts much less likely in 2026 — not just in the U.S. but around the world. w/...
Will private credit stress push the Fed to once again backstop irrational exuberance ? https://t.co/dnERejAvPo
YIELD CURVE: doesn't care about Taco Time Trading, Tourists, etc. It cares about The Quads (i.e. The Cycle) #Quad1 peaked in early FEB and the #Quad3 slowdown continues in the real economy this morning https://t.co/KVMr12qbUs
Surprised more people arent talking about 1990. Payrolls contracted in the month before the surge in oil prices, which tipped the economy more forcefully into recession. Fed couldn't respond sufficiently, delaying its cutting cycle for 6 months, until energy prices...
A longstanding taboo around Fed governors dissenting against the chair has been broken. Recent fractures have fallen along political lines. On what that means for the institution—and for the next chair. https://t.co/7S1YacOpoW
My latest on tomorrow FED rate decision and what to expect for stocks and the US dollar
"We can also crudely proxy for consumer spending by income quartile, based on consumer MCC transactions and average income in the ZIP code of the spender...at least on Stripe, lower-income ZIP codes have seen more robust spending growth than the...
When the dust settles after tomorrow's Fed meeting, the potential economic costs of the war in Iran are likely to feel more real. Headlines will be hawkish with a greater emphasis on inflation, but downside risks to employment and disposable...
An update on a critical chart: Gasoline prices continue to climb, but attention should now shift to food prices, which have yet to follow. Expect policymakers to call it transitory again, even as resource prices — despite volatility — remain elevated by...
FOMC interest rate decision will happen within 24 hours. The market expects a 99.1% odds of no rate cuts. https://t.co/mwK46vPADA
